2000 32 - Learning Guide PDF

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School of Computing, Engineering and Mathematics

200032 Statistics for Business Spring 2018

Unit Details Unit Code:

200032

Unit Name:

Statistics for Business

Credit Points:

10

Unit Level:

1

Assumed Knowledge:

HSC Mathematics/Mathematics Extension 1 is desirable.

Note: Students with any problems, concerns or doubts should discuss those with the Unit Coordinator as early as they can.

Unit Coordinator Name: Neil Hopkins Phone: 9685 9166 Location: Parramatta South ER.G-06 Email: [email protected] Consultation Arrangement: Tuesday 12pm to 1pm Wednesday 10am to 1pm and 2pm to 3pm Thursday 10am to 1pm

Teaching Team Name: Dr Charles Zworestine Phone: 46203411 Location: Campbelltown 26.1-30 Email: [email protected] Consultation Arrangement: Consultation times can be found on vUWS Name: Dr Rehez Ahlip Phone: 9685 9178 Location: Parramatta South ER.G-07 Email: [email protected] Consultation Arrangement: Consultation times can be found on vUWS

Edition: Spring 2018 University Western Sydney trading as Western Sydney University ABN 53 014 069 881 CRICOS Provider No: 00917K No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, Copyright 2018 c electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without the prior written permission from the Dean of the School. Copyright for acknowledged materials reproduced herein is retained by the copyright holder. All readings in this publication are copied under licence in accordance with Part VB of the Copyright Act 1968.

Contents 1 About Statistics for Business 1.1 An Introduction to this Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 What is Expected of You . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Changes to Unit as a Result of Past Student Feedback . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Assessment Information 2.1 Unit Learning Outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Approach to Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Contribution to Course Learning Outcomes . . . 2.4 Assessment Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 Assessment Details . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5.1 Internal Students - Tutorial Quizzes . . . 2.5.2 Internal Students - Mid Session Exam . . 2.5.3 Internal Students - Computer Assignment 2.5.4 Internal Students - Final Exam . . . . . . 2.6 General Submission Requirements . . . . . . . .

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3 Teaching and Learning Activities

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3 . 3 . 3 . 4 . 5 . 6 . 6 . 7 . 9 . 10 . 12 14

4 Learning Resources 15 4.1 Recommended Readings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Note: The relevant Learning Guide Companion supplements this document 1

1

About Statistics for Business

1.1

An Introduction to this Unit

Statistics for Business introduces the basic concepts and techniques of statistics that are particularly relevant to problem solving in business. It also provides a sound base for more advanced study in statistics and forecasting in subsequent sessions. Topics include: presentation of data; descriptive statistics; the role of uncertainty in business decision making; hypothesis testing; and basic forecasting.

1.2

What is Expected of You

Study Load A student is expected to study an hour per credit point a week. For example a 10 credit point unit would require 10 hours of study per week. This time includes the time spent within classes during lectures, tutorials or practicals. Attendance It is strongly recommended that students attend all scheduled learning activities to support their learning. Online Learning Requirements Unit materials will be made available on the unit’s vUWS (E-Learning) site (https://vuws.westernsydney.edu.au/). You are expected to consult vUWS at least twice a week, as all unit announcements will be made via vUWS. Teaching and learning materials will be regularly updated and posted online by the teaching team. Lecture notes and tutorial questions and their solutions will be made available on the E-Learning (vUWS) link on the UWS home page www.uws.edu.au Students are expected to consult vUWS at least twice a week, as all announcements will be made via vUWS and teaching material will be regularly updated and posted online. The Student Learning Unit (SLU) organises and runs a variety of programs and courses to develop students’ academic literacy, mathematics and study skills, and participates in many collaborative projects with Schools and Colleges to enhance the academic achievement of UWS students. To access the SLU site, visit http://www.uws.edu. au/campuses_structure/cas/services_facilities/slu In particular, the SLU has developed a useful online learning site, Online Learning Improve Your Maths, to support students’ learning at UWS and help with basic mathematics, calculus and statistics. Special Requirements Essential Equipment: Not Applicable Legislative Pre-Requisites: Not Applicable

1.3

Changes to Unit as a Result of Past Student Feedback

The University values student feedback in order to improve the quality of its educational programs. The feedback provided helps us improve teaching methods and units of study. The survey results inform unit content and design, learning guides, teaching methods, assessment processes and teaching materials. You are welcome to provide feedback that is related to the teaching of this unit. At the end of the semester you will be given the opportunity to complete a Student Feedback on Unit (SFU) questionnaire to assess the unit. You may also have the opportunity to complete a Student Feedback on Teaching (SFT) questionnaire to provide feedback for individual teaching staff. As a result of student feedback, the following changes and improvements to this unit have recently been made: – All lectures are now online and available through vUWS; – Tutorials have been increased to two hours. – More time in tutorials has been set aside for students to work on tutorial questions before quiz

2

2 2.1

Assessment Information Unit Learning Outcomes

Upon successfully completing this unit, students will be able to: Outcome 1

organise and summarise data numerically;

2

recognize the foundation behind inferential statistics;

3

identify the underlying assumptions associated with each statistical technique and interpret the results;

4

formulate economic and financial hypotheses into statistically testable forms;

5

manipulate, analyse and graph data using Excel;

6

employ the appropriate statistical methods and techniques in given situations.

2.2

Approach to Learning

The theory for each topic as well as examples will be presented in the online lecture. The online lectures have been broken into small sub topics. Students are expected to view each of the sub topic videos for the weekly topic BEFORE the week’s tutorial on that Topic. For example, before the week 2 Tutorial, students will be expected to have viewed all the online lectures on Topic 2 The tutorial will be run as follows ∗ In the first 30 minutes of the tutorial the tutor will go through examples from the week’s topic. This will be a chance for the student to see how a common question is answered. These questions will be selected from the textbook and the slides of these examples will be available from vUWS ∗ In the next 40 - 50 minutes, students will be expected to work through weekly tutorial questions. These questions will be available from vUWS at the beginning of the week. During this time, you can work in groups and will have the chance to ask the tutor for help. There is also practice questions with solutions for the student to help learn the topics. These are available on vUWS ∗ At twenty past the second hour, the students will attempt the quiz in the weeks where there is a quiz. (See section 2.5.1) Students should access the Statistics for Business vUWS site and check their student email account at least twice a week. Access to the unit’s vUWS site is only available to students who are enrolled in the unit. Student enrolment can be cancelled for failure to meet financial obligations to the University, e.g. failure to pay library fines. If the students do not have access or find that access is lost, they should contact the Student Centre to check enrolment. This unit is one in which the later topics build on material covered earlier in the unit. As such, it is critical that students work consistently on this unit throughout the semester. Through the exams, it is intended to examine a student’s understanding and ability to apply appropriate techniques rather than the ability to rote learn. Students should organise their workload to allow this objective to be achieved. To help organise your workload, students are recommended to download the daily/weekly/monthly planner from: http://www.uws.edu.au/currentstudents/current_students/getting_help/counselling_services/are_you_coping_with_study

3

2.3

Contribution to Course Learning Outcomes

Western Sydney University Graduate Attributes Graduate Attributes 1. Command multiple skills and literacies to enable adaptable lifelong learning 2. Demonstrate knowledge of Indigenous Australia through cultural competency and professional capacity 3. Demonstrate comprehensive, coherent and connected knowledge 4. Apply knowledge through intellectual inquiry in professional or applied contexts 5. Bring knowledge to life through responsible engagement and appreciation of diversity in an evolving world

ULO 1

ULO 2

ULO 3

ULO 4

Introduced

Introduced

Introduced

Introduced

ULO 5

Introduced

ULO 6

Introduced Introduced Introduced

4

2.4

Assessment Summary

The assessment items in this unit are designed to enable you to demonstrate that you have achieved the unit learning outcomes. Completion and submission of all assessment items which have been designated as mandatory or compulsory is essential to receive a passing grade. To pass this unit you must: - Obtain a minimum combined overall mark of 50/100; - Obtain at least 40% (20/50) in the final examination.

Item

Weight

Due Date

ULOs Assessed

Threshold

Internal Students - Tutorial Quizzes

10%

Tutorials in Weeks 2 - 5, 8 and 10 -12

1, 2, 3, 4, 6

No

Internal Students - Mid Session Exam

25%

Week 7 Tutorial

1, 2, 3

No

Internal Students Computer Assignment

15%

Online by 5pm on the day after your tutorial in Week 13

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

No

Internal Students - Final Exam

50%

Formal Examination Period

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Yes

Feedback on Assessment Feedback is an important part of the learning process that can improve your progress towards achieving the learning outcomes. Feedback is any written or spoken response made in relation to academic work such as an assessment task, a performance or product. It can be given to you by a teacher, an external assessor or student peer, and may be given individually or to a group of students. As a Western Sydney University student, it is your responsibility to seek out and act on feedback that is provided to you as a resource to further your learning. In this unit you can expect feedback within 2 weeks of any assessment submission. Further informal feedback will also be provided in tutorial sessions.

5

2.5 2.5.1

Assessment Details Internal Students - Tutorial Quizzes

Weight:

10%

Type of Collaboration:

Individual

Due:

Tutorials in Weeks 2 - 5, 8 and 10 -12

Submission:

in tutorial

Format:

The tutorial quiz will be held in the weekly tutorial in the last 30 minutes. The quizzes are open book, hence all learning materials (written/printed/vUWS site) can be accessed during the quiz. The quizzes will be marked by your tutor, and the 5 highest marks will be counted towards the assessment task (2% each). No replacement quizzes will be given. If more than 2 quizzes are missed and Special Consideration is granted, the outstanding weighting will be transferred to the Final exam.

Length:

15 minutes each

Curriculum Mode:

Short Answer

You are required to bring your own paper, and solutions must be written on the paper.

Exemplar: Question Re Exercise 5.66 (p.166 Textbook), Find the third and eighth deciles (30th and 80th percentiles) of the following data set: 26, 23, 29, 31, 24, 22, 15, 31, 30, 20. Solution: First put the Data in ascending order 15, 20, 22, 23, 24, 26, 29, 30, 31, 31

(1 mark)

L30 = 0.3 ∗ (n+1) = 0.3 ∗ (10+1) = 3.3 P30 = 23 + 0.3 ∗ (24-23) = 23.3

(1 mark) (1 mark)

L80 = 0.8 ∗ (n+1) = 0.8 ∗ (10+1) = 8.8 P80 = 30 + 0.8 ∗ (31 - 30) = 30.8

(1 mark) (1 mark)

Resources: Questions in quizzes are derived from the textbook and are similar to the tutorial and practice questions, and may cover any information or activity delivered during online lectures and tutorials; hence class attendance is important. The philosophy behind this form of assessment is of continuous learning. The approach aims to help students maintain their learning from the outset rather than delay learning until major assessment events. Additionally, this form of assessment provides students with fast, regular feedback on their understanding of different topics, thereby providing an opportunity to address any areas of weakness. Note: You can only attend the tutorial which you have registered for.

6

2.5.2

Internal Students - Mid Session Exam

Weight:

25%

Type of Collaboration:

Individual

Due:

Week 7 Tutorial

Submission:

In Class

Format:

45 minute Open book. The examination paper consists of 2 major questions and each sub-question covers a specific topic as follows. Question 1 Part 1 - Descriptive Statistics (a) Topic 2 Descriptive statistics (5 marks) (b) Topic 3 Index Numbers (5 marks) Question 2 Part 2 - Random Variables and Probability Distributions (a) Topic 4 - Basic Probability (5 marks) (b) Topic 5 - Random Variables, Discrete Distributions and Decision Analysis (5 marks) (c) Topic 6 Normal Distribution and Sampling Distributions (5 marks)

Length:

45 minutes

Curriculum Mode:

Short Answer

The mid-session exam will be held in Week 7 tutorial. It is a open-book exam. The aim of this assessment is to give students feedback on how well they demonstrate an understanding of the topics in descriptive statistics and probability. You will have 45 minutes to complete the exam. This is an examination to determine whether you are able to employ the appropriate formulas to calculate descriptive statistics and probabilities.

Exemplar: Question (2 + 3 = 5 marks) A marketing manager of a leading firm believes that the yearly sales for the firm can be modelled by using a normal distribution with a mean of $5.10 million and a standard deviation of $1.02 million. 1. In order to cover fixed costs, the firms sales must exceed the break-even level of $5.50 million. What is the probability that sales will exceed the break-even level next year? 2. Find the probability that the total sales of the next four years will exceed $22.00 million. Solution: (i) P (x > 5.5)

(1 mark for correct z score)

= P (z > 0.39) = 1 − P (z ≤ 0.39)

(0.5 mark for correct table area)

= 1 − 0.6517 = 0.3483

(0.5 mark for final answer)

(ii) P (Total > 22.0)

(1 mark for correct sample mean)

= P (x > 5.5)

(1 mark for correct z score)

= P (z > 0.78) = 1 − P (z ≤ 0.78)

(0.5 mark for correct table area)

= 1 − 0.7823 = 0.2177

(0.5 mark for final answer)

7

Resources: Questions in the mid-semester test are derived from the textbook, and may cover any information or activity delivered during online lectures and tutorials covering Topics 1 to 6. Missing the mid-semester exam will result in an Fail Non Submission grade, unless an application for special consideration providing documentation of extenuating circumstances is approved in accordance with WSU policies. The special consideration form must be submitted within two (2) working days. If special consideration is granted, the weight of the mid semester exam will be added to the weight of the final exam. Marking Criteria: Criteria

High Distinction

Distinction

Credit

The assessment criteria for each question are the correctness and the completeness of the solution given. If a mistake is made in one of the steps of a solution an appropriate part of the marks for that step is deducted.

85% - 100%

75% - 84%

65% - 74%

8

Pass 50 - 64%%

Unsatisfactory 0% - 49%

2.5.3

Internal Students - Computer Assignment

Weight:

15%

Type of Collaboration:

Group

Due:

Online by 5pm on the day after your tutorial in Week 13

Submission:

Online

Format:

Word / Excel Document - Maximum 6 pages

Length:

5 hours

Curriculum Mode:

Short Answer

The computer assignment introduces the student to a very basic statistical package Microsoft Excel. Students will need to able to work in a group to complete the assignment. Students will also need to learn how to use Excel using the appropriate material in the textbook. This assignment will be four questions covering topics 7 to 10. The assignment will require you to use Excel to organise and summarise data graphically and numerically. All calculations and statistical analyses must be performed by Excel. The assignment is to be completed in self-selected groups (maximum of 4 students). The groups are to be determined before the mid session break (Week 8). One person of the group will be the groups manager. NOTE: Students must comple...