2020 BUSA1027 Exam PDF

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2020 BUSA1027 Exam...

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DIGITAL (ONLINE) EXAM INSTRUCTIONS DEPARTMENT OF ACTUARIAL STUDIES AND BUSINESS ANALYTICS, MACQUARIE BUSINESS SCHOOL FINAL EXAM: SESSION 2 2020 UNIT CODE: BUSA1027 UNIT NAME: Demographic Fundamentals EXAM DURTION: 2 hours 40 minutes (2 hour exam + 10 minutes reading time + 30 minutes technical time (WITHIN A 6 HOUR WINDOW: A ‘WINDOW’ EXAM) INSTRUCTIONS ON EXAM DURATION • Breakdown of Total Exam Duration: 2 hour exam + 10 minutes reading time + 30 minutes technical time (including downloading, uploading and submission issues). • This exam is designed to be completed in 2 hours 40 mins. There is no expectation, and there is no need, to take more than 2 hours 40 mins to complete the exam. But please note, you are not timed on when you open the exam questions and when you submit your exam response in Turnitin. This can occur anywhere in the 6 hour window. GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS ON EXAM RESPONSES AND EXAM SUBMISSION • Students must type their exam responses into a single Word document. Please use ‘standard’ formatting settings: 12-point font, Times New Roman, single or 1.5 spacing, standard margins. • Students must submit their exam response document by the due time of the scheduled exam window. Please remember: to minimise potential technical issues with uploading to Turnitin, ideally aim to submit your exam response document well before the due time. • Late exam submissions will not be marked and will be treated as not submitted. If students are unable to submit their exam responses by the due time, or experience significant issues hindering exam completion, they must submit a Special Consideration application to sit a supplementary exam. ENSURING ACADEMIC INTEGRITY • This is an open book exam. That means students can consult, for example, the unit’s 1 readings, and dictionaries, to support exam completion. • However, it is expected that the exam responses that students submit are their own work. That is, in line with the exam questions, aim to demonstrate your understanding of the unit content in your own words. • Macquarie University takes the upholding of academic integrity seriously. In taking and submitting this exam, students are agreeing to the following statement: "By taking this exam I affirm that I am the student whose MQ ID has been used to log into iLearn and that I am submitting my own, independent work. I confirm that I am aware of the penalties for academic dishonesty which may include failure in the unit or potentially even expulsion from the University." Please ensure you follow any other guidance for the exam that your Unit Convenor has provided.

Number of Questions: Four

Maximum marks: 100. The maximum number of marks for each question is indicated in square brackets immediately following the question number.

The value of each question part is shown in square brackets immediately following the question part.

This exam consists of four questions. With Question 1, students should attempt both parts of the question. With Question 2, students should attempt all parts of the question. With Question 3, students should attempt four (4) of the six (6) options provided. With Question 4, students should attempt two (2) of the five (5) options given.

Further Instructions Answer all the questions in one document. Ensure that you have written your name and student number as it appears on iLearn. ▪ In order to minimise the Turnitin Similarities, do not write each question in your document. Just write Q1 or Question 1. • You can submit your document multiple times before the deadline. • Only Microsoft Word documents will be accepted (.doc, .docx). DO NOT use other format (pages, pdf, etc.). • Documents must be submitted online using the Turnitin link. ▪

▪

(please turn over for questions)

Question 1. Population Age Structure [14 Marks] The percentage distribution of the total populations (i.e. total number of males plus total number of females) by age and sex for Sydney on 30/6/2019 and for Rest of New South Wales on 30/6/2019 are shown below in Table A: Table A Sydney 2019

Rest of New South Wales 2019

Age Last Birthday

Males

Females

Males

Females

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

3.4 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.9 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.7

3.2 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.7 4.3 4.3 3.8 3.3 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.2 0.9 1.1

3.1 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.7 1.8 1.2 1.0

2.9 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.0 1.4 1.6

Using the information in Table A, please answer the following questions:

i.

Calculate the overall sex ratio for Sydney on 30/6/2019 and the overall sex ratio for Rest of New South Wales on 30/6/2019, expressing your answer on a males per 100 females basis and to 1 decimal place. [2 Marks]

Describe, compare and suggest explanations for differing features of the percentage age distributions by age and sex of Sydney on 30/6/2019 and Rest of New South Wales on 30/6/2019. [12 Marks] (please turn over for more questions) ii.

Question 2. Population Projection [36 Marks] The estimated numbers of females in the Japan by age on 30/6/2019, Age-Specific Fertility Rates (per 1000) and annual net migration for females for Japan in 2019, and projected numbers of females for Japan on 30/6/2024 for some age groups only are presented in Table B. Some values from the Tx columns of an abridged life table (l0 = 100,000) for females in Japan for 2019 are presented in Table C. The sex ratio at birth for Japan in 2019 is 107 males per 100 females. Table A Age Last Birthday (x)

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95+

i.

Table B Number of females on 30/06/2019

2,325,000 2,628,000 2,708,000 2,776,000 2, 921,000 2,999,000 3,314,000 3,748,000 4,161,000 4,916,000 4,294,000 3,918,000 3, 763,000 4,283,000 4, 815,000 3,897,000 3,129,000 2,348,000 1, 290,000 422,000

ASFR (per 1000) 2019

4 28 77 98 56 12 0

Annual Net Migration 2019

500 950 1,300 4,700 6,800 4,500 3,100 2,270 2,500 2,100 1,750 1,400 750 400 200 200 200 150 20 5

Projected Number of females on 30/06/2024

2,632,571 2,721,571 2,801,957 2,945,216 3,012,923 3,319,914 3,747,503 4,151,348 4,887,503 4,253,685 3,860,553 3,677,156 4,128,309 4,516,244 2,437,779 1,425,204

Age (x)

Tx

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

8,647, 011 8,148,246 7,649,807 7,151,568 6,653,592 6,156,117 5,659,329 5,163,382 4,668,559 4,175,376 3,684,700 3,197,829 2,716,422 2,242,734 1,780,214 1,334,561 916,652 547,273 259,596 85,032 15,602

Describe and suggest reasons for the variation in numbers of females by age for Japan on 30/6/2019. [10 marks]

(please turn over for more questions)

ii.

Calculate the Total Fertility Rate for Japan in 2019, expressing your answer on a per woman basis and to two decimal places. [3 marks]

iii.

For Japan in 2019, calculate life expectancy at birth for females, expressing your answer to two decimal places. [3 marks]

iv.

For Japan in 2019, calculate the probability a female aged 65-69 last birthday survives the next five years, expressing your answer to five decimal places. [2 marks]

v.

For Japan in 2019, calculate the probability a female aged 95+ survives the next five years, expressing your answer to five decimal places. [2 marks]

vi.

For Japan in 2019, calculate the proportion of newborn females who survive to be aged 0-4 last birthday, expressing your answer to five decimal places. [2 marks]

vii.

For Japan in 2019, calculate the proportion of females aged 10-19 last birthday that survive the next twenty years, expressing your answer to five decimal places. [2 marks]

The projection of the female population by age on 30/6/2024 assumes that between 30/6/2019 and 30/6/2024; • • • •

the levels of mortality are those shown by the life table for females in Japan for 2019 (shown in Table C) annual numbers for net migration of females by age remain constant at the levels for 2019 (shown in Table B), all age-specific fertility rates are constant at the levels for 2019 (shown in Table B); the sex ratio at birth remains constant at 107 males per 100 females.

viii.

For Japan on 30/6/2024, calculate the projected number of females aged 5-9, expressing your answer to the nearest whole number. [2 marks]

ix.

For Japan on 30/6/2024, calculate the projected number of females aged 8084, expressing your answer to the nearest whole number. [2 marks]

(please turn over for more questions)

x.

For Japan on 30/6/2024, calculate the projected number of females aged 95+, expressing your answer to the nearest whole number. [3 marks]

xi.

For Japan on 30/6/2024, calculate the projected number of females aged 0-4, expressing your answer to the nearest whole number. [5 marks]

Question 3. Short Explanations [20 Marks] Answer any four out of the following six options:

a)

What is meant by the term ‘census net undercount’? Briefly describe the method the Australian Bureau of Statistics uses to estimate the scale of census net undercount. [5 Marks]

b)

How will the projected size of Australia’s population change in the immediate future and longer term if the projection is based on the assumptions that in the future Australia experiences a constant fertility level which is below exact replacement level, constant mortality and zero migration? [5 Marks]

c)

Define the three components of population change for Queensland. For the period between 1/1/2018 and 31/12/2018 state which of these components had positive values and which of these components had negative values. [5 Marks]

d)

State whether the shape of the population pyramid for the Indigenous population of Australia in 2016 is best described as ‘triangular’, ‘rectangular’ or ‘coffin shaped’. Give three reasons for the differences in the numbers of Indigenous Australians by age. [5 Marks]

e)

Write down the formula for the labour force participation rate for males aged 40-44. For Australia in 2016 state whether the labour force participation rate of males aged 15-19 was higher or lower than labour force participation rate for males aged 40-44, giving a reason for the difference. For Australia in 2016 state whether the labour force participation rates of males aged 65 and above was higher or lower than the labour force participation rate for males aged 40-44, giving a reason for the difference. [5 Marks] (please turn over for more questions)

f)

Define the Crude Death Rate and the Directly Standardised Death Rate. Explain why in 2018 the Crude Death Rate for the Indigenous population of New South Wales was lower than the Crude Death Rate for the Non-Indigenous population of New South Wales, whilst the Directly Standardised Death Rate for the Indigenous population of New South Wales was higher than the Directly Standardised Death Rate for the Non-Indigenous population of New South Wales. [5 Marks]

Question 4 [30 Marks] Write essays (expected length 1-2 pages) on ANY TWO of the following FIVE options. Each essay is worth 15 marks, making a total of 30 marks for Question 4. Where relevant essays can be illustrated with the use of appropriate diagrams, equations, use of appropriate statistical information, or illustrated with examples.

(a).

How population growth rates have differed between the different countries of the world in recent years and how these differences are related to differences in birth rates, death rates, net migration rates and population age distribution. [15 Marks]

(b).

Recent and past rends in the source countries of immigrants to Australia and how they can explain the differing sizes and age profiles of country of birth groups in Australia. [15 Marks]

(c).

Describe and suggest explanations for the differences in death rates between age groups, males and females, states and territories and country of birth groups in Australia in recent years. [15 Marks]

(d).

Recent trends in the numbers and demographic composition of higher education students in Australia. [15 Marks]

(e).

How demographic data and projections are used in the public sector in Australia. [15 Marks]...