A11 Earthquake Prediction Forecasting and Early Warning Earthquakes in Your Backyard PDF

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Earthquakes quiz for prediction forecasting and early warning...

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11/11/2020

A11: Earthquake Prediction, Forecasting, and Early Warning: Earthquakes in Your Backyard

A11: Earthquake Prediction, Forecasting, and Early Warning Due Nov 15 at 11:59pm Points 41 Questions 38 Time Limit None Allowed Attempts 4

Available Nov 6 at 6pm - Nov 18 at 11:59pm 12 days

Instructions This assignment tackles earthquake prediction, forecasting, and early warning concepts. You will review each separately and then answer a few questions to practice telling the difference between them. You will have 4 attempts to complete this assignment. Like A10, I recommend that you write your answer choices down as you go, so you have a record of what you answered each time. Because there are some free-response questions in this assignment, we will be keeping the score of your latest attempt, so that we are consistent about which version we grade the short answers for. The free response accounts for 11 pts total, so your score will not exceed 30 pts until we grade those questions. Due to the sophistication of some of these concepts, a few of the answer choices you will encounter will be a little wordy. I encourage you to read every answer choice carefully before making your choices. As ever, your GSI and the instructor are happy to help you during office hours if you get stuck.

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Attempt History Attempt

Time

Score

KEPT

Attempt 3

8 minutes

30 out of 41 *

LATEST

Attempt 3

8 minutes

30 out of 41 *

Attempt 2

11 minutes

29 out of 41 *

Attempt 1

70 minutes

26.67 out of 41 *

* Some questions not yet graded

 Correct answers are hidden. Score for this attempt: 30 out of 41 * Submitted Nov 11 at 5:57pm This attempt took 8 minutes.

Let's get started with forecasting. When the weather channel says there is a 10% chance of light showers in the next 24 hours in Springville, there are four components to this forecast: 1) an event, 2) a timeframe, 3) an area, and 4) a probability tied to the first 3.

Question 1

1 / 1 pts

Match each piece of this forecast with the correct category of forecasting component. A 20% chance of a snowstorm in Boulder, Colorado on Friday, November 19.

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A11: Earthquake Prediction, Forecasting, and Early Warning: Earthquakes in Your Backyard 20% chance

snowstorm

Boulder, Colorado

Friday, Nov 19

probability

event

location/ area

timeframe

A change to any one of the three constituent components will affect the probability value. For example, let’s consider rain forecasts: On average, it rains 123 days a year in Missoula, Montana. Without any other meteorological knowledge, I forecast that there is basically a 100% chance of rain in Missoula sometime in the next 12 months. But what about in the next 24 hours? Based purely on the number of rainy days in a year, I could say there is a 123/365 (34%) chance of rain on any given day. Changing the time frame under consideration changed the forecast.

Question 2

1 / 1 pts

Now let's think about this in the context of earthquake forecasts. Consider these 3 tables, which are from the most recent forecasting model for the state of California, UCERF3. The probability of a M6.7+ earthquake in the next 30 years is greater for the entire state than the Bay Area alone. What makes the difference?

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A11: Earthquake Prediction, Forecasting, and Early Warning: Earthquakes in Your Backyard

the size of the area considered is different

Question 3

1 / 1 pts

The probability of a M8 earthquake in the next 30 years in the Bay Area is substantially smaller than the probability of a M6.7. What do you think is making the difference?

smaller earthquakes are more common, and larger earthquakes are more rare

Question 4

1 / 1 pts

Taking into account your answers to the previous two questions, what is a basic premise of forecasts like UCERF? Complete this statement: As the criteria (time frame, magnitude range, etc.) you use to make a forecast become more specific, then:

The forecasted probabilities will become smaller

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A11: Earthquake Prediction, Forecasting, and Early Warning: Earthquakes in Your Backyard

Now let's talk about what drives forecast models for earthquakes.

The engine of plate tectonics is driving the surface of the earth to be in motion. The motion of the plates is accommodated along their boundaries via motion on the faults that make up the boundary. Some of this motion occurs via creep. ‘Slip deficit’ is the amount of tectonic motion that hasn’t yet been into fault motion. Therefore, slip deficit can be roughly translated to how much motion we expect must be expressed via an earthquake.

Question 5

1 / 1 pts

What is the basic equation determining slip deficit?

Tectonic motion - creep = slip deficit

Question 6

1 / 1 pts

The longer a fault accumulates slip deficit... (select 2 answers)

An increasingly large earthquake (or combination of earthquakes) is required to release the built up stress An earthquake of a given magnitude becomes increasingly likely

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Question 7

1 / 1 pts

There have been 3 UCERF reports. Each one provided a likelihood of a M6.7+ earthquake on the Hayward Fault within 30 years of the publication date. The 2003 model forecast a 27% chance. The 2008 forecast estimated a 31% likelihood, and the 2015 estimated 33%. What is one significant reason the likelihood changed with time?

More stress has built up over time since there has not been a big earthquake

Question 8

1 / 1 pts

What are some of the key measurements/research concepts that go into the development of an earthquake forecast? (Choose 4)

Study of earthquake rupture history for a given fault Rate of tectonic motion

Rate of creep on faults

State of stress on a given fault

Question 9

1 / 1 pts

What does a probabilistic ground shaking model like this one depict?

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Regions with a set probability of exceeding a certain intensity of earthquake shaking in a given timeframe

Now a transition to prediction:

Question 10

1 / 1 pts

Earthquake Forecasting and Prediction are the same thing.

False

Question 11

1 / 1 pts

It is scientifically possible to make useful and believable earthquake predictions.

False

Question 12

1 / 1 pts

What components are needed for an earthquake prediction to be useful? (Select 3) https://bcourses.berkeley.edu/courses/1495152/quizzes/2332447

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Magnitude (or narrow magnitude range) Specific location interval of time when it will occur

1 / 1 pts

Question 13

People have proposed many possible indicators to predict earthquakes. So far none of them have worked. Why?

Some of them have been observed before an earthquake, but none have consistently been observed before every earthquake.

Question 14

Not yet graded / 3 pts

In lecture, Prof Allen talked about attempts to predict earthquakes in China. In 1975, Chinese scientists used a swarm of small earthquakes to predict that a significant earthquake was imminent and Haicheng was evacuated just hours before destructive shaking occurred. What happened in 1976? (max 85 words. Bullet points ok) Your Answer: There were 2 prediction failures. The first was a false alarm in Kwangtung province in August 1976. the enthusiasm behind increased foreshock activity working led to another prediction predicted an imminent earthquake, evacuation ordered people slept in tents for nearly 2 month – no earthquake The second was another missed alarm in Tangshan in July 1976. no immediate precursors, no evacuation more than 250,000 people died – one of the deadliest earthquakes

Question 15

1 / 1 pts

What kinds of observations are required to make earthquake prediction possible? https://bcourses.berkeley.edu/courses/1495152/quizzes/2332447

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all of these are necessary

1 / 1 pts

Question 16

It is currently possible to make all the observations necessary to make earthquake prediction a reliable reality.

False

Question 17

Not yet graded / 3 pts

What does it mean that earthquake rupture is a 'critical failure process', and what does that say about the earthquake prediction problem? (If you're having trouble, try reviewing the sand avalanche metaphor used in class). (max 100 words) Your Answer: Earthquake rupture is a critical failure process where there is a constant build-up of stress, followed by fault patches failing, i.e. slipping, all the time. Most failures stay small, some become bigger It suggests that earthquake prediction is not possible. Most seismologists would agree that it is not likely in the foreseeable future But, once an earthquake has nucleated, or started, we can predict ground shaking

This absolute gem of an email (including the screenshots) was sent to members of the Berkeley Seismology Lab on July 20th, 2020: GREETINGS: I know your field is a scientific investigation of seismology. But history involves a mystery that has to solved. The Lincoln assassination & the S.S. Titanic striking an iceberg both occurred on April 14th between 10 PM---12 Midnight EXACTLY 47 years apart to the day. Lincoln & the S.S. Titanic both met their fates on APRIL 15 ( 4/15 ). Lincoln breathed his last & the Titanic sank beneath the waves of the Atlantic. It might be a code of some sort as the Tel. Area Code for San Francisco, CA is "415". Oh by the way, the photo attachment of the gold medal is an authentic medal made in 1912. It is extremely rare & I found it on person at my condo at [address redacted for privacy] in 2017 only after my Lyme disease specialist doctor moved in 2015 to [address redacted for privacy]. I believe these historical facts and other information leads me to the conclusion that these are elements forming a pattern of destiny. Now, there is no 100% absolute guarantee that this minor EARTHQUAKE mentioned above is going to occur in San Francisco, CA on schedule. BUT IF IT DOES, there will definitely be several other accurate predictable QUAKES that will culminate in the "BIG ONE" on the World famous San Andreas Fault in California on GOOD FRIDAY, APRIL 2, 2021.

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Question 18

Not yet graded / 1 pts

Based on the text of their email and the tweets in the screenshots, what two things does this person think is going to happen? (answer in 2 bullet points) Your Answer: 1. Earthquake in SF, CA near 7th ave. and Lincoln Way on Wed, July 22, 2020, at 3:04:17 PM PDT of M 3.2 and depth 7.1 miles. 2. There will be the "BIG ONE" on the World famous San Andreas Fault in California on GOOD FRIDAY, APRIL 2, 2021.

Question 19

Not yet graded / 2 pts

What is the evidence they use to make their argument? (Three sentences max. Bullet points ok.) Your Answer:

The Lincoln assassination & the S.S. Titanic striking an iceberg both occurred on April 14th between 10 PM---12 Midnight EXACTLY 47 years apart to the day. Lincoln & the S.S. Titanic both met their fates on APRIL 15 ( 4/15 ). Lincoln breathed his last & the Titanic sank beneath the waves of the Atlantic. It might be a code of some sort as the Tel. Area Code for San Francisco, CA is "415". Oh, by the way, the photo attachment of the gold medal is an authentic medal made in 1912. It is extremely rare & I found it in person at my condo at [address redacted for privacy] in 2017 only after my Lyme disease specialist doctor moved in 2015 to [address redacted for privacy].

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1 / 1 pts

Question 20 Is their logic credible?

No

Not yet graded / 2 pts

Question 21 Why is or why isn't their logic credible? (Two sentences max. Bullet points ok.)

Your Answer: This person’s rationale isn’t rooted at all in earthquake science, seismology, but rather historical events that just have coincidental relationships to forthcoming earthquakes.

1 / 1 pts

Question 22 Did the event they describe in their tweet actually happen? (Hint: Check this USGS earthquakes page

(https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?

extent=37.21502,-123.07846&extent=38.18099,-121.75873&range=search&search=%7B%22name%22:%22Search%20Results%22,%22params% 06-01%2000:00:00%22,%22endtime%22:%222020-0905%2023:59:59%22,%22maxlatitude%22:37.97,%22minlatitude%22:37.429,%22maxlongitude%22:-122.016,%22minlongitude%22:-122.82,%22m

, where I have already narrowed some search parameters for you (you can view them by clicking the gear icon in the upper right corner))

No

Now let's tackle earthquake early warning.

Question 23

1 / 1 pts

Select the true statement.

Earthquake early warning is neither a prediction nor an earthquake forecast.

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5 / 5 pts

Question 24

When an earthquake

[ Select ]

, the

from the source and gets detected by [ Select ] [ Select ]

[ Select ]

travels the fastest away . This seismic data

, which/who rapidly computes that an earthquake has begun, and estimates the

magnitude, the location of the epicenter, and the area that will experience shaking - then creates a warning. The early warning system in the US requires

[ Select ]

stations to send data in order to confirm

that an earthquake is in progress, and the system must estimate the earthquake is [ Select ] in order to release a warning to the public. Delivery mechanisms like [ Select ]

deliver the

warning to users. The concept of early warning is that the detection and alerting process is very fast while the [ Select ]

takes time to spread away from the source.

How much warning time will users get? Warning time depends on

[ Select ]

. The closer a person is to the source, the less warning

time they are able to receive . You can receive an early warning [ Select ]

you start to feel

heavy shaking.

Answer 1: begins

Answer 2: p-wave

Answer 3: seismometers

Answer 4: gets sent to a central computer server

Answer 5: four

Answer 6: at least a M4.5

Answer 7: MyShake

Answer 8: heavy shaking that comes with the s-wave

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A11: Earthquake Prediction, Forecasting, and Early Warning: Earthquakes in Your Backyard Answer 9: proximity to the earthquake source

Answer 10: the less warning time they are able to receive

Answer 11: before, simultaneous with, or after

Question 25

1 / 1 pts

For people who do receive a warning before heavy shaking begins, about how much time should they expect (on average) to have to respond or take protective action?

seconds

Question 26

1 / 1 pts

What can be done with a few seconds of warning? (Choose the best 6)

Surgeons can take their tools out of their patients

Slow down trains

Individuals can take protective action, like drop, cover, and hold on. Shut down fragile electronic or technical processes

Automatically open the garage doors for fire stations Stop elevators at the nearest floor and open the doors

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Question 27

1 / 1 pts

To receive early warnings in CA, (and get other global earthquake information) what app should you (pretty please) download?

MyShake

The next batch of questions are to double check that you can distinguish between the three categories of forecasting, prediction, and early warning.

Question 28

1 / 1 pts

Identify what this statement is an example of: ‘There will be a M6.2 earthquake in Arcata, CA, on May 3rd, 2022’

Prediction

Question 29

1 / 1 pts

Identify what this statement is an example of: ‘There is a 7% chance of a M8+ earthquake in the LA region before 2043’

Forecast

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Question 30

1 / 1 pts

Identify what this statement is an example of: ‘An earthquake has begun under Oakland and residents of San Jose can expect to experience strong shaking in 10 seconds’

Early Warning

Question 31

1 / 1 pts

Identify what this statement is an example of: ‘There will be a M6-7 earthquake in Oaxaca, Mexico the next time the moon is full.’

Prediction

Quiz Score: 30 out of 41

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