Ch11 The Efficient Market Hypothesis PDF

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Lecture notes for week 11 helps with chapter 11...

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Chapter 11 The Efficient Market Hypothesis Multiple Choice Questions

1. If you believe in the ________ form of the EMH, you believe that stock prices reflect all relevant information including historical stock prices and current public information about the firm, but not information that is available only to insiders. A. semistrong B. strong C. weak D. semistrong, strong, and weak E. hard The semistrong form of the EMH maintains that stock prices immediately reflect all historical and current public information, but not inside information. 2. When Maurice Kendall examined the patterns of stock returns in 1953 he concluded that the stock market was __________. Now, these random price movements are believed to be _________. A. inefficient; the effect of a well-functioning market B. efficient; the effect of an inefficient market C. inefficient; the effect of an inefficient market D. efficient; the effect of a well-functioning market E. irrational; even more irrational than before Random price changes were originally thought to be driven by irrationality. Now, financial economists believe random price changes occur because markets are informationally efficient. 3. The stock market follows a __________. A. random walk B. submartingale C. predictable pattern that can be exploited D. random walk and a predictable pattern that can be exploited E. submartingale and a predictable pattern that can be exploited The stock market follows a submartingale.

4. A hybrid strategy is one where the investor A. uses both fundamental and technical analysis to select stocks. B. selects the stocks of companies that specialize in alternative fuels. C. selects some actively-managed mutual funds on their own and uses an investment advisor to select other actively-managed funds. D. maintains a passive core and augments the position with an actively managed portfolio. E. None of these are correct. A hybrid strategy is one where the investor maintains a passive core and augments the position with an actively managed portfolio.

5. The difference between a random walk and a submartingale is the expected price change in a random walk is ______ and the expected price change for a submartingale is ______. A. positive; zero B. positive; positive C. positive; negative D. zero; positive E. zero; zero A random walk has an expected price change of zero and a submartingale has a positive expected price change. 6. Proponents of the EMH typically advocate A. an active trading strategy. B. investing in an index fund. C. a passive investment strategy. D. an active trading strategy and investing in an index fund E. investing in an index fund and a passive investment strategy Believers of market efficiency advocate passive investment strategies, and an investment in an index fund is one of the most practical passive investment strategies, especially for small investors. 7. Proponents of the EMH typically advocate A. buying individual stocks on margin and trading frequently. B. investing in hedge funds. C. a passive investment strategy. D. buying individual stocks on margin and trading frequently and investing in hedge funds E. investing in hedge funds and a passive investment strategy Believers of market efficiency advocate passive investment strategies, and an investment in an index fund is one of the most practical passive investment strategies, especially for small investors.

8. If you believe in the _______ form of the EMH, you believe that stock prices only reflect all information that can be derived by examining market trading data such as the history of past stock prices, trading volume or short interest. A. semistrong B. strong C. weak D. semistrong, strong, and weak E. None of these are correct. The information described above is market data, which is the data set for the weak form of market efficiency. The semistrong form includes the above plus all other public information. The strong form includes all public and private information. 9. If you believe in the _________ form of the EMH, you believe that stock prices reflect all available information, including information that is available only to insiders. A. semistrong B. strong C. weak D. semistrong, strong, and weak E. None of these are correct. The strong form includes all public and private information.

10. If you believe in the reversal effect, you should A. buy bonds in this period if you held stocks in the last period. B. buy stocks in this period if you held bonds in the last period. C. buy stocks this period that performed poorly last period. D. go short. E. both buy stocks this period that performed poorly last period and go short The reversal effect states that stocks that do well in one period tend to perform poorly in the subsequent period, and vice versa. 11. __________ focus more on past price movements of a firm's stock than on the underlying determinants of future profitability. A. Credit analysts B. Fundamental analysts C. Systems analysts D. Technical analysts E. Credit analysts, Fundamental analysts, Systems analysts, and Technical analysts Technicians attempt to predict future stock prices based on historical stock prices. 12. _________ above which it is difficult for the market to rise. A. A book value is a value B. A resistance level is a value C. A support level is a value D. A book value and a resistance level are values E. A book value and a support level are values

When stock prices have remained stable for a long period, these prices are termed resistance levels; technicians believe it is difficult for the stock prices to penetrate these resistance levels. 13. _________ below which it is difficult for the market to fall. A. An intrinsic value is a value B. A resistance level is a value C. A support level is a value D. An intrinsic value and a resistance level are values E. A resistance level and a support level are values When stock prices have remained stable for a long period, these prices are termed support levels; technicians believe it is difficult for the stock prices to penetrate these support levels.

14. ___________ the return on a stock beyond what would be predicted from market movements alone. A. An irrational return is B. An economic return is C. An abnormal return is D. An irrational return and an economic return are E. An irrational return and an abnormal return are An economic return is the expected return, based on the perceived level of risk and market factors. When returns exceed these levels, the returns are called abnormal returns. 15. The debate over whether markets are efficient will probably never be resolved because of ________. A. the lucky event issue B. the magnitude issue C. the selection bias issue D. the lucky event issue, magnitude issue, and selection bias issue E. None of these answers are correct. The lucky event issue, magnitude issue, and selection bias issue all exist and make rigid testing of market efficiency difficult or impossible.

16. A common strategy for passive management is ____________. A. creating an index fund B. creating a small firm fund C. creating an investment club D. creating an index fund and creating an investment club E. creating a small firm fund and creating an investment club The index fund is, by definition, passively managed. The other investment alternatives may or may not be managed passively. 17. Arbel (1985) found that. A. the January effect was highest for neglected firms. B. the book-to-market value ratio effect was highest in January. C. the liquidity effect was highest for small firms. D. the neglected firm effect was independent of the small firm effect. E. small firms had higher book-to-market value ratios. Arbel divided firms into highly researched, moderately researched, and neglected groups based on the number of institutions holding the stock.

18. Researchers have found that most of the small firm effect occurs A. during the spring months. B. during the summer months. C. in December. D. in January. E. randomly. Much of the so-called small firm effect simply may be the tax-effect as investors sell stocks on which they have losses in December and reinvest the funds in January. As small firms are especially volatile, these actions affect small firms in a more dramatic fashion. 19. Basu (1977, 1983) found that firms with low P/E ratios A. earned higher average returns than firms with high P/E ratios. B. earned the same average returns as firms with high P/E ratios. C. earned lower average returns than firms with high P/E ratios. D. had higher dividend yields than firms with high P/E ratios. E. None of these are correct. Firms with high P/E ratios already have an inflated price relative to earnings and thus tend to have lower returns than low P/E ratio stocks. However, the P/E ratio may capture risk not fully impounded in market betas so this may represent an appropriate risk adjustment rather than a market anomaly.

20. Basu (1977, 1983) found that firms with high P/E ratios A. earned higher average returns than firms with low P/E ratios. B. earned the same average returns as firms with low P/E ratios. C. earned lower average returns than firms with low P/E ratios. D. had higher dividend yields than firms with low P/E ratios. E. None of these are correct. Firms with high P/E ratios already have an inflated price relative to earnings and thus tend to have lower returns than low P/E ratio stocks. However, the P/E ratio may capture risk not fully impounded in market betas so this may represent an appropriate risk adjustment rather than a market anomaly. 21. Jaffe (1974) found that stock prices _________ after insiders intensively bought shares. A. decreased B. did not change C. increased D. became extremely volatile E. became much less volatile Insider trading may signal private information 22. Jaffe (1974) found that stock prices _________ after insiders intensively sold shares. A. decreased B. did not change C. increased D. became extremely volatile E. became much less volatile Insider trading may signal private information. 23. Banz (1981) found that, on average, the risk-adjusted returns of small firms A. were higher than the risk-adjusted returns of large firms. B. were the same as the risk-adjusted returns of large firms. C. were lower than the risk-adjusted returns of large firms. D. were unrelated to the risk-adjusted returns of large firms. E. were negative. Banz found A to be true, although subsequent studies have attempted to explain the small firm effect as the January effect, the neglected firm effect, etc.

24. Banz (1981) found that, on average, the risk-adjusted returns of large firms A. were higher than the risk-adjusted returns of small firms. B. were the same as the risk-adjusted returns of small firms. C. were lower than the risk-adjusted returns of small firms. D. were unrelated to the risk-adjusted returns of small firms. E. were negative. Banz found A to be true, although subsequent studies have attempted to explain the small firm effect as the January effect, the neglected firm effect, etc. 25. Proponents of the EMH think technical analysts A. should focus on relative strength. B. should focus on resistance levels. C. should focus on support levels. D. should focus on financial statements. E. are wasting their time. Technical analysts attempt to predict future stock prices from historic stock prices; proponents of EMH believe that stock price changes are random variables. 26. Studies of positive earnings surprises have shown that there is A. a positive abnormal return on the day positive earnings surprises are announced. B. a positive drift in the stock price on the days following the earnings surprise announcement. C. a negative drift in the stock price on the days following the earnings surprise announcement. D. both a positive abnormal return on the day positive earnings surprises are announced and a positive drift in the stock price on the days following the earnings surprise announcement. E. both a positive abnormal return on the day positive earnings surprises are announced and a negative drift in the stock price on the days following the earnings surprise announcement. The market appears to adjust to earnings information gradually, resulting in a sustained period of abnormal returns. 27. Studies of negative earnings surprises have shown that there is A. a negative abnormal return on the day negative earnings surprises are announced. B. a positive drift in the stock price on the days following the earnings surprise announcement. C. a negative drift in the stock price on the days following the earnings surprise announcement. D. both a negative abnormal return on the day negative earnings surprises are announced and a positive drift in the stock price on the days following the earnings surprise announcement. E. both a negative abnormal return on the day negative earnings surprises are announced and a negative drift in the stock price on the days following the earnings surprise announcement. The market appears to adjust to earnings information gradually, resulting in a sustained period of abnormal returns.

28. Studies of stock price reactions to news are called A. reaction studies. B. event studies. C. drift studies. D. both reaction studies and drift studies. E. both event studies and drift studies. Studies of stock price reactions to news are called event studies. 29. On November 22, 2009 the stock price of WalMart was $39.50 and the retailer stock index was 600.30. On November 25, 2009 the stock price of WalMart was $40.25 and the retailer stock index was 605.20. Consider the ratio of WalMart to the retailer index on November 22 and November 25. WalMart is _______ the retail industry and technical analysts who follow relative strength would advise _______ the stock. A. outperforming, buying B. outperforming, selling C. underperforming, buying D. underperforming, selling E. equally performing, neither buying nor selling 11/22: $39.50/600.30 = 0.0658; 11/25: $40.25/605.20 = 0.0665; Thus, WalMart's relative strength is improving and technicians using this technique would recommend buying. 30. Work by Amihud and Mendelson (1986, 1991) A. argues that investors will demand a rate of return premium to invest in less liquid stocks. B. may help explain the small firm effect. C. may be related to the neglected firm effect. D. may help explain the small firm effect and may be related to the neglected firm effect. E. argues that investors will demand a rate of return premium to invest in less liquid stocks, may help explain the small firm effect, and may be related to the neglected firm effect. Lack of liquidity may affect the returns of small and neglected firms; however the theory does not explain why the abnormal returns are concentrated in January. 31. Fama and French (1992) found that the stocks of firms within the highest decile of bookto-market ratios had average monthly returns of _______ while the stocks of firms within the lowest decile of book-to-market ratios had average monthly returns of________. A. greater than 1%, greater than 1% B. greater than 1%, less than 1% C. less than 1%, greater than 1% D. less than 1%, less than 1% E. less than 0.5%, greater than 0.5% This finding suggests either that low book-to-market ratio firms are relatively overpriced, or that the book-to-market ratio is serving as a proxy for a risk factor that affects expected equilibrium returns.

32. A market decline of 23% on a day when there is no significant macroeconomic event ______ consistent with the EMH because ________. A. would be, it was a clear response to macroeconomic news B. would be, it was not a clear response to macroeconomic news C. would not be, it was a clear response to macroeconomic news D. would not be, it was not a clear response to macroeconomic news E. None of these are correct. This happened on October 19, 1987. Although this specific event is not mentioned in this edition of the book, it is an example of something that would be considered a violation of the EMH. 33. In an efficient market, __________. A. security prices react quickly to new information B. security prices are seldom far above or below their justified levels C. security analysis will not enable investors to realize superior returns consistently D. one cannot make money E. security prices react quickly to new information, are seldom far above or below their justified levels, and security analysis will not enable investors to realize superior returns consistently Security prices react quickly to new information, security prices are seldom far above or below their justified levels, and security analysis will not enable investors to realize superior returns consistently; however, even in an efficient market one should be able to earn the appropriate risk-adjusted rate of return. 34. The weak form of the efficient market hypothesis asserts that A. stock prices do not rapidly adjust to new information contained in past prices or past data. B. future changes in stock prices cannot be predicted from past prices. C. technicians cannot expect to outperform the market. D. stock prices do not rapidly adjust to new information contained in past prices or past data and future changes in stock prices cannot be predicted from past prices E. future changes in stock prices cannot be predicted from past prices and technicians cannot expect to outperform the market The weak form of the efficient market hypothesis asserts that future changes in stock prices cannot be predicted from past prices; therefore, technicians cannot expect to outperform the market. 35. A support level is the price range at which a technical analyst would expect the A. supply of a stock to increase dramatically. B. supply of a stock to decrease substantially. C. demand for a stock to increase substantially. D. demand for a stock to decrease substantially. E. price of a stock to fall. A support level is considered to be a level below that the price of the stock is unlikely to fall and is believed to be determined by market psychology.

36. A finding that _________ would provide evidence against the semistrong form of the efficient market theory. A. low P/E stocks tend to have positive abnormal returns B. trend analysis is worthless in determining stock prices C. one can consistently outperform the market by adopting the contrarian approach exemplified by the reversals phenomenon D. low P/E stocks tend to have positive abnormal returns and trend analysis is worthless in determining stock prices E. low P/E stocks tend to have positive abnormal returns and one can consistently outperform the market by adopting the contrarian approach exemplified by the reversals phenomenon Both low P/E stocks tending to have positive abnormal returns and the ability to consistently outperform the market by adopting the contrarian approach exemplified by the reversals phenomenon are inconsistent with the semistrong form of the EMH. 37. The weak form of the efficient market hypothesis contradicts A. technical analysis, but supports fundamental analysis as valid. B. fundamental analysis, but supports technical analysis as valid. C. both fundamental analysis and technical analysis. D. technical analysis, but is silent on the possibility of successful fundamental analysis. E. None of these is correct. The weak form of the efficient market hypothesis contradicts technical analysis, but is silent on the possibility of successful fundamental analysis. 38. Two basic assumptions of technical analysis are that security prices adjust A. rapidly to new information and market prices are determined by the interaction of supply and demand. B. rapidly to new information and liquidity is provided by security dealers. C. gradually to new information and market prices are determined by the interaction of supply and demand. D. gradually to new information and liquidity is provided by security dealers. E. rapidly to information and to the actions of insiders. Technicians follow market data such as price changes and volume of trading (as indicator of supply and demand) believing that they can identify price trends as security prices adjust gradually. 39. Cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) A. are used in event studies. B. are better measures of security returns due to firm-specific event...