DEMS 2700 Lecture Notes PDF

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DEMS 2700: Fundamentals of Emergency Management Lecture Notes Samuel Lee York University Summer 2019 Semester Professor Aaida Mamuji Table of Contents Lecture 1: Introduction to Disasters........................................................................................ Lecture 2: The Managemen...

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DEMS 2700: Fundamentals of Emergency Management Lecture Notes Samuel Lee York University Summer 2019 Semester Professor Aaida Mamuji

Table of Contents Lecture 1: Introduction to Disasters.........................................................................................2 Lecture 2: The Management of Disasters.................................................................................4 Lecture 3: Hazards I.................................................................................................................8 Lecture 4: Hazards II..............................................................................................................13 Natural Hazards................................................................................................................................13 Technological Hazards......................................................................................................................18

Lecture 5: Risk and Vulnerability............................................................................................20 Lecture 6: Mitigation.............................................................................................................24 Lecture 7: Preparedness........................................................................................................26 Lecture 8: Response...............................................................................................................30 Lecture 9: Recovery...............................................................................................................35 Lecture 10: Participants.........................................................................................................39

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Lecture 1: Introduction to Disasters 

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2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (December 26, 2004) o Earthquake epicenter was off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia  9.1 in magnitude  Lasted 8.3-10 minutes o Affected people in 14 countries  230,000-280,000 people killed  Indonesia was the hardest-hit  Followed by Sri Lanka, India, and Thailand Interpretations of Disasters Act of God  Disasters  Dis: Away from  Astro: The stars  Interpreted as unfavorable alignment of stars and planets or divine retribution for human misdeeds  Leads to fatalistic acceptance of disasters o Act of Nature  Attributed to 1755 earthquake in Lisbon  Government and people implemented measures to recover from future disasters  Recognizes disasters as objective phenomena and natural events  Also results in fatalistic acceptance o Intersection of Society and Nature  Understands disasters in terms of social action  Humans put themselves in the way of hazards  Protections collapse  Requires analysis of communities and human behavior  Uses rationalization and bureaucratization to reduce effects o Avoidable Human Creation  Focuses on the vulnerability of people to hazards  Understands disasters subjectively through the perspective of the victims  Disasters are brought upon humans by others  Highlights societal injustice  Places blame for disasters  Natural hazards exist that may create disasters  Haiti vs. Chile  Haiti was hit by a 7.0 magnitude earthquake in January of 2010  Affected an estimated 3 million people  Death toll ranges from 100,000-160,000 (220,000-316,000 according to the Haitian government)  Chile was hit by an 8.8 magnitude earth quake in February of 2010  525-708 people lost their lives, 25 people went missing  Chile is ranked as a high-income economy Definitions

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Hazard: Dangerous phenomenon, condition, substance or human activity that may cause damage  Natural, technological, or intentional  Roots  Hasard (French for a game of dice)  Zar (Turkish and Persian for dice)  Al-zahr (Arabic for chance or luck)  Characterized by location, intensity, magnitude, frequency and probability Exposure: Elements present in a hazard prone area that are subject to potential loss  People, infrastructure, housing, production capacities, etc Vulnerability: Circumstances and characteristics making a hazard prone area susceptible to damage  A combination of physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes  Comes from the Latin vulnerabilis (to wound)  Measure of the propensity of an object, area, individual, group, community, country or other entity Risk: Potential losses after hazard event expressed as a probability or frequency  A combination of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability

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Roots  Risq (Arabic for fortune)  Risicum (Latin for scenario faced by sailors attempting to circumvent a reef barrier) Disaster: A disruption of the functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous events interacting with conditions of exposure, vulnerability, and capacity  Leads to human, material, economic, and environmental losses and impacts  Occurs when a hazard risk is realized  Divided into sudden onset or slow onset disasters  Roots  Dis: Away from  Astro: The stars Capacity to Cope: The ability of people, organizations, and systems to manage adverse conditions risk or disasters using available skills and resources  Requires continuing awareness, resources, and good management  Includes infrastructure and physical planning, social capacity, economic capacity, and management

Lecture 2: The Management of Disasters 

Past Deadly Disasters

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Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) o Worldwide database containing essential core data on natural and technological disasters around the world dating from 1900 to the present o Defines a disaster as a situation or event, which overwhelms local capacity, necessitating a request to national or international level for external assistance  10 or more people reported killed  100 or more people reported affected  Declaration of a state of emergency  Call for international assistance o Technological Disasters: Disasters that can be attributed in part or entirely to human intent, error, negligence, or failure of artificial system o People Affected by Disasters: Require immediate assistance during a period of emergency (food, water, shelter, medical assistance) Disaster Trends o The number of disaster events is increasing each year  Has been increasing greatly since 1950 because of urbanization  In 1950 less than 30% of the world's population lived in cities  In 2000 75% of the world's population lives in areas at risk of natural disasters  60% will live in cities  Potentially due to increasing world populations, differences in disaster reporting standards, environmental degradation, human settlement patterns, climate change  In the short term, the number of disasters has been decreasing since 2008  Possibly due to international strategies for disaster reduction, more responsive aid organizations

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Trends for technological disasters follow overall trend The number of people affected by disasters is rising  Increase in human population  Statistics regarding the number of people affected have peaked in 1991, 1994, and 1998  Due to floods in China, Bangladesh, India and droughts in China and Brazil  Another peak occurred in 2002  Due to a drought in India, storms, droughts, and floods in China, a flood in India, and a drought in Ethiopia  Another peak occurred in 2016  Due to a drought in India, Ethiopia, and China  The highest number of people affected by climatological disasters since 2006  4.2 times the annual average o Overall, disasters are becoming less deadly  Annual deaths from natural disasters is decreasing  Has fallen 50% since the 1970s despite a tripling of the number of disaster events  Due to global movements for disaster risk reduction  Technological disasters have grown more deadly overtime  Due to increased reliance on technology o Overall, disasters are becoming more costly  Annual impact of disasters reached $60 billion in 2000  Due to increased urbanization in high risk zones, reliance on technology  Globalization compounds the economic effect of disasters o Poor countries are disproportionately affected by disaster consequences  70% of deaths due to disasters occur in mid to low income countries  High income groups are affected economically, while low and mid income groups are affected physically History of Emergency Management o The Asipy (3200 BC): Decision making body used to manage risks in ancient Mesopotamia o Rome (6 AD): Corps of Vigiles (firefighting brigade) worked to reduce the damage caused by fires o Herculaneum and Pompeii (79 AD): Evacuation plans for the population were put in place due to risks of volcanic eruption o India (19th Century): Measures to assist with food distribution nation-wide were put in place o Modern Emergency Management emerged in the mid-twentieth century  Put in place as civil defense  To protect countries from wartime threats  Shift in social philosophy  Increased responsibility of government to respond to disasters o International Measures for Disaster Risk Reduction  Emergency management structures developed in response to natural disasters o

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1990s: Declared the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) by the UN  Established to promote internationally coordinated efforts to reduce material losses and social and economic disruption caused by natural disasters  The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction was established in December 1999  Succeeded the secretariat of the IDNDR to implement the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction  Framework changed over time  Yokohoma Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safer World (1994)  Incorporated disaster management into development  Emphasized prevention, mitigation and preparedness  Recognized that countries and regions are becoming more dependent  Hyogo Framework for Action: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters (20052015)  Integrated disaster risk reduction into sustainable development  Strengthening of institutions mechanisms and capacities  Incorporation of risk reduction approaches into implementation of emergency preparedness response and recovery programs  Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030)

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Modern Disaster Management  Comprehensive Emergency Management: Preparation for and carrying out of all emergency functions necessary to mitigate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from emergencies and disasters caused by all hazards (FEMA)  Considers all hazards, all phases, all impacts, and all stakeholders  Utilizes a four phase approach  Mitigation: Lessening of minimizing of the adverse impacts of a hazardous event  Proactive measures before a disaster  Involves reducing or eliminating the likelihood or consequences of a hazard  Preparedness: Knowledge and capacity to respond and recover from impacts of likely, imminent or current disasters  Builds the capacity to manage all types of emergencies  Equips those who may be impacted by a disaster with tools to increase their chances of survival and minimize losses  Response: Actions taken to save lives, reduce health impacts, ensure public safety and meet the basic subsistence needs of the people affected  Actions to reduce casualties, damage and disruption  Responds to immediate needs  Recovery: Restores livelihoods, health, assets (economic, physical, social, cultural and environmental), systems and activities  Returns lives of victims back to normal state  Begins after immediate response by can persist for years  International Disaster Management  The study of the diverse emergency and disaster management systems and structures that exist throughout the world  Studies scenarios where the capacity of a single nation's response mechanisms are overwhelmed

Lecture 3: Hazards I 

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Hazard: A process, phenomenon or human activity that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation o Regions face natural, technological and intentional hazards Hazard Identification: Developing an exhaustive list of potential hazards in a specific area o The goal is to establish an exhaustive list of hazards regardless of likelihood  Further analysis can then be performed o Leads to hazard profiling  Description of a hazard in its local context o Methods  Brainstorming  Checklists  Historical Research  Interviews  Site Visits  Review of neighboring communities  Hazard Sequencing o Imagination is an important tool to be used Factors to Consider o Physical location is one of the primary factors dictating the existence of natural hazards o Secondary and tertiary hazards may arise from an initial event Bow-Tie Model

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Hazard Sequencing o Fault Tree  Focuses on the consequence and traces events which could lead to a lossmaking event  Investigates all branches of events which could contribute to an incident  Used to identify preventative measures to avoid a disaster event  Models

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Analysis Steps 1. Define the top event a. Failure or unwanted event 2. List failures that may directly contribute to the top event a. Look at problem from different angles 2. Identify which failures must occur together for the top event to occur ("and" gate) and which failures can independently cause the top event ("or" gate)

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2. Develop the tree further by finding failures which may contribute to identified failures 3. Identify the primary failures 4. Calculate the probabilities/frequencies for the identified consequences (outcomes) a. Add probabilities from "or" gates b. Multiply probabilities from "and" gates 2. Consider alternatives and recommend action

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3. Compile and present the results from the analysis Event Tree  Defines the consequential events which flow from the primary initiating event  Investigates the consequences of a loss-making event  Used to find measures to mitigate losses resulting from loss-making event  Based on binary logic in which an event has or has not occurred  Models

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Analysis Steps 1. Identify and define a relevant accidental initial event that may lead to unwanted consequences 2. Identify the barriers that are designed to deal with the accidental event 3. Construct the event tree 4. Describe the potential accident sequences 5. Determine the frequency of the accidental event and the conditional probabilities in the event tree 6. Calculate the probabilities and frequencies for the identified consequences (outcomes) 7. Consider alternatives and recommend action 8. Compile and present the results from the analysis Examples

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Hazard Analysis/Hazard Profiling o Fully describes potential hazards o Determines what causes hazards to exist and allows disaster managers to make more informed calculations of risk o Usually presented in risk statements which inform disaster managers how each hazard impacts their jurisdiction Risk Profiles o Provide a tool to asses community risk and determine mitigation and preparedness priorities o Begins with a base map (geographic representation of the area of study o Includes information on:  Geography  Topography, mountains, bodies of water, tectonic faults  Property  Land use, essential facilities, hazardous materials  Infrastructure  Roads, rail lines, bridges, hospitals, schools  Demographics  Population size, density, income levels, vulnerable groups  Response Capacity  Location, facilities, services, assets for emergency management o Hazards are represented on an individual base map and on an aggregate map (of all hazards)

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Included information Frequency of hazard occurrence Historical incidences of the hazard Predicted frequency of the hazard Magnitude and potential intensity of the hazard Location(s) of the hazard Estimated spatial extent of impact caused from the hazard Duration of hazard event, emergency or disaster Seasonal pattern or other time-based patterns Speed of onset of hazard event Availability of warnings for the hazard

Lecture 4: Hazards II Natural Hazards 

Result from naturally occurring phenomena

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Tectonic Hazards: Associated with the movement of the earth's plates o 7 major plates exist  Around 80 km thick and in constant motion (10-130mm per year) o Hazards occur where the earth's plates interact  Divergent: Plates move away from each other  Convergent: Plates move towards each other and collide  Transform: Plates grind against each other with limited divergent and convergent activity o Earthquakes: Sudden movement of the Earth caused by an abrupt release of strains along fault lines  Seismic waves extend from the epicenter like ripples  The damage sustained depends on the focal depth (focus), location of the epicenter, its magnitude and intensity

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Focal depth  Deeper earthquakes cause less damage  Shallow Earthquakes: Focal depth of 0-70 km  Intermediate Earthquake: 70-300 km  Earthquakes lower than 300 km will cause minimal damage Epicenter  Damage is most severe close to the epicenter Magnitude is assessed on the Richter scale  Measures the total energy released by a seismic event

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Intensity is assessed with the Mercalli Intensity Scale  Measures the effects of the earthquake on the earth's surface based on observations from the surface

Secondary hazards  Tsunamis  Avalanches  Rockslides  Landslides  Soil liquefaction Volcanoes: Magma escapes to the earth's surface and becomes lava  Magma: Molten rock and super-heated gases that lie beneath the Earth’s crust  550 active volcanoes exist around the world  Most concentrated around the edges of tectonic plates

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 Types of volcanoes are determined by the type of plate movement, and type of material that is brought to the surface  Hot rocks, ash, and other debris can be found up to 20 miles from volcanoes  Secondary hazards  Earthquakes  Rockfalls  Landslides  Mudflows  Tsunamis  Poisonous gases Tsunamis: Generated when a large area of water is displaced by a shift in the sea floor or other mass movements  Caused by undersea earthquakes or other disturbances (landslides, volcanoes, explosions, meteorites)  Have an average speed of 450 mph  Can reach heights up to 100 ft  Most tsunamis occur around the Ring of Fire

Mass Movement Hazards: Debris movements or land subsidence  Debris movements: Landslides, Rock Falls, Debris Flows, Avalanches  Falls: Debris moves vertically through the air  Slides: Debris tumbles down slopes  Flows: Debris liquifies to form semi-liquid flows  Land subsidence: Sinkholes, expansive soils  Causes  Rapid, gravity-induced movement of large quantities of materials  Expansion or contraction of the earth from non-seismic means  Debris movements (caused by intense precipitation), rapid snowmelt, gradual erosion, loss of anchoring vegetation, earthquakes, volcanoes, human interactions  Secondary hazards  Flooding Hydrologic Hazards: Caused by an excess or severe lack of water o Floods  Common natural hazard affecting around 75 million people per year

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Caused by an excess of water Resulting from rainfall, thunderstorms, onshore winds, landslides, logjams, avalanches, icepack, levee breakage, dam failure  Flash-floods: Floods that occur with little or no warning  Result of intense rainstorms  Slow-onset floods  Typically occur periodically  Storm Surge: Massive waves of water that swe...