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Estimating Problems_assignment...

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There are two estimating techniques discussed in the case study “Estimating problem.” Analogous estimate technique is mentioned by Peter when asked by Barbara about the accuracy of the estimate provided earlier by the estimating group. The analogous estimating technique uses one or more similar past projects to estimate a range of project parameters of the current project. The project parameters that can be evaluated by this technique include project cost, budget, scope, expected duration among others. The analogous estimating technique is mostly used to estimate a particular parameter when information about that parameter within the current project is unavailable until a later day. This technique is a form of expert judgment that is most reliable when the previous activities are exactly similar to the current project, and team members have the expertise necessary to estimate accurately (Kerzner & Kerzner, 2017). The three-point estimating technique was the technique used by the estimating group to arrive at project duration of twelve weeks with one grade 7 employees which raised more questions than answers in Barbara’s mind. The three-point estimating technique is considered to be one of the easiest and accurate estimating techniques among project managers. It is for this reason why the estimating group settled and believed in it. It makes it possible for several members of the estimating team to contribute and provide their input during the estimation process. The technique offers a wide range of project estimates and calculates either average or the weighted average (Larson & Gray, 2015). A three-point estimate uses either triangular distribution or beta distribution. In triangular distribution, the expected estimate is arrived at by calculating the mean of the three different values. That means three scenarios must always be provided for every part of the estimate, “the optimistic time, the most likely time and the pessimistic time.” The beta distribution is the estimate is the weighted average where more weight is accorded to the most likely estimate. The

estimating group in the case study had used the beta distribution to obtain their estimates (Meredit & Mantel, 2011). There are various elements that a project manager can utilize to identify the best estimating technique for a project. First, the size of the project is an important element to consider while choosing the best estimating method. The size of the project affects the amount of time given to a particular project. A large project allows project managers to invest significant amount of time in unearthing historical information to be used in analogous technique. Second, the level of complexity of the project is another element that projects managers can utilize to decide the best method. Every project has it level of complexity as each project has various factors influencing it Larson & Gray, 2015). Very complex projects call for analogous estimating so that a comparison can be made between previous projects and the current project. Third, the level of expertise within a team can really help a project manager choose the best estimating technique for his team. Choosing a method that an organization has experience with does not only provide accurate estimates but also gets management support which is crucial for a new project. Nature of the project is equally important in helping project managers pick one of the better estimation technique. The project managers have to identify various aspects that stand out between the current project and the previously done projects. If a project does not have any connection with previous project, it calls for the project manager to ask his estimating team to pick three-point estimation (Larson & Gray, 2015). Lastly, understanding of the project specification regarding cost, assumption, constraints and time is necessary to allow project managers to choose the best estimation technique. Project managers who lack a complete understanding of project specification have a high likelihood of selecting the wrong estimation technique for their teams (Doloi, 2011).

As the project manager for the work package, I would choose analogous estimation technique. Since the work package has been awarded to Peter, his work experience in these types of work will be of great importance in providing suggestions based on his previous projects. As noted in the case study, this is a complex project and therefore support from employees familiar with the work package would be of great value.

References Larson, E. W., & Gray, C. F. (2015). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge: PMBOK (®) Guide. Project Management Institute. Meredith, J. R., & Mantel Jr, S. J. (2011). Project management: a managerial approach. John Wiley & Sons. Doloi, H. K. (2011). Understanding stakeholders' perspective of cost estimation in project management. International journal of project management, 29(5), 622-636. Kerzner, H., & Kerzner, H. R. (2017). Project management: a systems approach to planning, scheduling, and controlling. John Wiley & Sons....