FINAL EXAM DEMO2002 2020S1 PDF

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FINAL EXAM DEMO2002 2020 SEMESTER 1...

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Final exam Demo2002 “Population Analysis” Students have access to this exam at 9am on the 3rd June. Deadline: Once you have finished, make a PDF of your exam/answers and upload it in turnitin before 9am on the 4th June.

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1) Transition theories: Briefly describe the three transitions discussed in class, emphasizing if some are included on the others and in which stages (maximum 300 words).

2) Migration: 2.1 - Describe the theoretical age pattern of migration and some of the reasons why it has that shape (maximum 200 words). 2.2 - Do you think humanitarian migration shows the same age-pattern? Explain your answer (maximum 150 words). 2.3 - Why is migration important for Australia and what would you think are the migration changes that covid19 will create for the country? (maximum 200 words). 3) Family formation: In wattle you are given the data “MS2016.csv” which includes transition rates between union states (single, married, out of marriage = widow + divorce) for Australian females and males from age 16 to 65+ in 2016 from ABS.

3.1 – Present a schematic diagram of boxes and arrows, showing the states and transitions for the MS2016 data. Using the notation of dij(x,1) for the number of movements from state i to j between ages x to x+1, and li(x) for the number of individuals in state i at age x, present the flow equations for the three states (i.e. how would you calculate the number of individuals at the following age in each state, li(x+1), given data for age x?) and explain them (maximum 150 words). 3.2 – Calculate separate multistate models for women and men for the union states described in 3.1, using the transition rates in MS2016; and assuming that all individuals start at age 16 single. Present a plot of the survivors in each of the states and how those numbers change over age.

3.3 - Describe your findings of the plot in 3.2, in particular describe the life expectancies in the different marital status found for Australian women and men, what do these life expectancies represent? How different are they between sexes and why the gaps? (maximum 150 words).

3.4 – Now let’s change slightly the transition rates: a) run the same model in 3.1 with a reduction in marriage rates of 20%; b) with an increase in the out of marriage rate of 25%; and c) a model combining (a) and (b). Present a Table having in columns - life expectancies in each of the states – and in rows each of the cases above (a), (b) and (c). Describe your findings (maximum 150 words).

3.5 – Let’s do some theoretical calculations of probabilities. Using the same model as in 3.1 and the notation of dij(x,1) for the number of movements from state i to j at age x, and li(x) for the number of individuals in state i at age x. How would you calculate the following probabilities? Include a formula and explain the calculations that you would do (maximum 150 words).

3.6 – Let’s end this section presenting a bigger schematic diagram as in 3.1 but which includes more possible union states that correspond better to our current reality in Australia… how would this diagram look? Describe it (maximum 150 words) 4) Forecasting: In wattle you are given the data ASFR_AUS.csv including the fertility data for Australia from 1975 to 2018 from ABS, and in the Human Mortality Database you can find the life table data for the country. Let’s assume no migration…

4.1) Which steps are to be followed to construct the cohort component method? (maximum 200 words) 4.2) Run a forecast based on the Australian fertility, mortality and population from 1975 up to the year of 2016. Present the population pyramid from 2016 from the real data from HMD and the one you got from the forecast based on data from 1975. Describe them and explain why they are different? (maximum 200 words) 4.3) Why would we want to do such a forecast comparison as in (4.2)? What would you do to improve this or any forecast? (maximum 200 words)...