GEOG 1000 - Summary of Chapter 6 PDF

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What does it tell about the country? Higher growth, lower-developed country put in fastest and slowest growing countries Education level, infant mortality, or economic well-being make a difference they don’t really correlate with specific trends can’t automatically assume things, have to graph to find correlations poverty doesn’t necessarily mean population growth nor does it mean that children will die Social factors don’t affect growth The Human Population and its Impact Core Case Study: Planet Earth - Population 7 billion The evolution of Homo Sapiens and a total population of 2 billion has taken 200,00 years It has taken less than 50 years to reach the second 2 billion It took 25 years to add the third 2 billion Twelve years later, the population topped 7.1 billion What is a sustainable human population?

The human population has grown exponentially - showing slow growth throughout most of history and shooting up at a rapid rate within the last 200 years. Shows projections to 2100 that range from 8 million to 16 million How Do Environmental Scientists Think about Human Population Growth The continuing rapid growth of the human population and its impacts on natural capital raise questions about how long the human population can keep growing Human Population Growth Shows Certain Trends Rate of the population growth has slowed in recent decades Human population growth is unevenly distributed geographically People are moving from rural to urban areas

Exponential- starts slow, gets more, and grows extremely fast 68 years from today it will be twice as big, 15 billion by 2082 means resources will be consumed at 4 times the rate an extreme consideration If Japan, chose it not to slow down reproduction b/c of resource consumption they expect very little impact a lot they asked the middle class for only 1 child by slowing down the bottom, they have nothing coming in, now the upper Dependency they have no way to support the population, it’s all on the middle if it’s not a fast enough to build an intermediate stages if allow exponential growth, resource consumption will increase India no resources, but encourage you to have a lot of off-spring (largest population under 20) it can’t be determined, which it was both are new issues, never found before Affects different populations, different ways The doubling growth rate every few years the population will grow Rule of 70 is 70/annual growth rate = how many years it will take to double in most is less than 1%, which means it takes 70 years to double When we double the population, consumption is 4 times If the population is increased by 4 times, consumption will increase by 16 times Annual Growth Rate of World Population, 1950-2010

The annual growth rate of world population has generally dropped since the 1960s, but the population has continued to grow Where Population Growth has Occurred, 1950-2010

Most of the world’s population growth between 1950-2012 took place in the world’s lessdeveloped countries. This gap has been projected to increase between 2012-2050 Human Population Growth Impacts Natural Capital As the human population grows, so does the global total human ecological footprint Cultural Carrying Capacity Total number of people who could live in reasonable freedom and comfort indefinitely without decreasing the ability of the earth to sustain future generations

We humans have altered the natural systems that sustain our lives and economies in at least eight major ways to meet the increasing needs and wants of our growing population

What Factors Influence the Size of the Human Population? Population size increases through births and immigration, and decreases through deaths and emigration

The average number of children born to women in a population (total fertility rate) is the key factor that determines population size The Human Population Can Grow, Decline, or Remain Fairly Stable Population Change = (births + immigration) - (deaths + emigration) Crude birth rate the number of live births/1000/year Crude death rate the number of deaths/1000/year Women Are Having Fewer Babies, But the World’s Population is Still Growing Fertility Rate number of children born to a woman during her lifetime Replacement-level Fertility Rate Average number of children a couple must have to replace themselves Approximately 2.1 in developed countries Up to 2.5 in developing countries The World’s Population is still growing Total Fertility Rate (TFR) average number of children born to women in a population between 1955-2012, the global TFR dropped from 5 to 2.4 However, to eventually halt population growth, the global TFR will have to drop to 2.1 Total Fertility Rates

The graph shows the total fertility rates for the United States between 1917-2012 The US fertility rate has declined and remained at or below replacement level since 1972, but the population is still increasing Case Study: The US Population - Third Largest and Growing Population still growing and not leveling off 76 million in 1900 314 million by 2012 Drop in TRF in US Rate of population growth has slowed Major changes that took place in the lifestyles in the US during the 20th century (1900-2000)

Case Study: The US Population - Third Largest and Growing Immigration US has admitted almost twice as many immigrants and refugees as all other countries combined

Legal immigration to the US, 18202006 (the last year for which data was available). The large increase in immigration since 1989 resulted mostly from the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, which granted legal status to certain illegal immigrants who could show that they had been living in the country before January 1, 1982

Several Factors Affect Birth Rates and Fertility Rates Children as part of the labor force depend on children to add money to the family income Cost of raising and education children Availability of private and public pension doesn’t matter anymore b/c most families don’t have a pension Urbanization living in the city, small spaces used to be reversed, but now they are going back to the city energy prices are rising, so they don’t want to drive far water is a main issue and so is waste disposal Educational and employment opportunities for women Average age of a woman at marriage Availability of reliable birth control methods Availability of legal abortions not a significant impact, it still goes up Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms our courts are full of children from cases b/c of immigration deforming children is a normal practice there Physical environment plays a role when they have to go get resources families are bigger can get more resources if they have more kids people are a resources use to improve their own standard of living Several Factors Affect Death Rates Life expectancy Infant Mortality Rate Number of live births that die in first year High infant mortality rate indicates Insufficient food Poor nutrition High incidence of infectious disease

determining how many children she’ll give birth during her birthing yeats it’s a personal choice influenced by a lot of things education, curve longer their limits, the less number of children they’ll have cultural norm mother-in-law controls, stays in the house want many children, mostly male Japan parasite singles they don’t move out or have any children Less Developed countries have 15-20% most growth occurs where there is the least amount of resources economic and ecological barriers More Developed Countries have leveled it to main stability if too many people and not enough resources, get depression When it gives depends on economic influence on population Five most populous nations China, India, US, Indonesia, Brazil India and China will shift places Brazil is reducing agricultural project will slow down their growth it will become India, China, US, Pakistan, Indonesia India, China, and US will continue to be the largest Africa doesn’t have a large population, it’s only a highly growing population it was small to begin with b/c of their environmental regions Egypt is on the middle-east list, but it is actually in Africa (a different continent) they are not in the groups they are supposed to be in 1 province in India has more people than every country in the world the top six, 177 million, the distribution is not the way it should be

Fertility Variant should have the same trends Global population would reach ZPG (Zero Population Growth) for every person is born, replace everyone as long as people are mobile, immigrant affects population Projected Population Change Why range for 7.8-10.8 billion for 2030? Demographic Myth: Determine reliability of current estimates Make assumptions about fertility trends Deal with databases and sets of assumptions In US, use census to determine population you have to have an address to get counted we have a large homeless population takes about 10 year to get the data have to estimate illegal immigrants How long can the human population continue to grow? Thomas Malthus and Population Growth 1798 only remembered because he was born first Karl Marx said the world was overpopulated when there wasn’t enough resources They said that the world was only overpopulated when they ran out of land we still have open space, so we aren’t over overpopulated resources are not distributed evenly, so we can’t live everywhere it continues to increase, even though some people thought the CC was 4 billion Will technology increase the human carrying capacity? You have to use resources to create technology that could potentially increase we aren’t recycling like we need to in order to accomplish this Can the population grow indefinitely? Natural Capital Degradation produced by the out food, diverse, energy depletion out we have recycled they, so they can be universal what you need is not what you need What factors Influence the Size of the Population Can’t change b/c global as no immigration or emigration has to be analyzed country by country diverse cultures and relationships Population size b/c of birth and immigration Population Change = (births + immigration) - (deaths + emigration) Infant mortality rates for the world’s more-developed countries and less-developed countries, 1950-2012, with projections to 2050 based on medium population projections Infant Mortality Rate is low, but the US has the highest quality of life US is the only country in the world with no policy on controlling the population size

more people, more demands on the economy, more environmental influences Will it grow or not, Birth/Fertility Rate US/Europe’s teen pregnancy rates are higher than less developed country where they actually get married in their teens and are expected to start their families whereas we teach don’t get married in until you are ready, have more teen pregnancies increase in disease in the children of these women if you haven’t been taking care of yourself, than you aren’t a good incubator for a baby don’t have the ability to care for yourself, nor them born with a less than effective immune system most likely no prenatal care, don’t know if there is a problem with the baby until birth it progressively gets worse through the generations the numbers grow with each generation maybe their immune system is being genetically altered Migration Affects an Area’s Population Size Migration the movement of people into and out of specific geographic areas Causes economic improvement religious and political freedom wars Environmental refugees How Does a Population’s Age Structure Affect Its Growth or Decline? the numbers of males and females in young, middle, and older age groups determine how fast a population grows or declines A Population’s Age Structure Helps Us Make Projections Age structure categories PreReproductive Ages (0-14) Reproductive Ages (15-44) PostReproductive Ages (45 and older) Seniors are the fastest-growing age group

Generalized population age-structure diagrams for countries with rapid (1.5-3%), slow (0.31.4%), zero (0-0.2%), and negative (declining) population growth rates

Population structure by age and sex in less-developed countries and more-developed countries for 2011 Case Study: The American Baby Boom 79 million people added from 1946-1964 36% of adults Affect politics and economics Now becoming senior citizens Graying of America

Age-structure charts tracking the baby-boom generation in the US, 1955, 1985, 2035 After WWII, births went up b/c soldiers came home and were ready to start families then the Baby Bust hippies, flower power no babies women were changing their minds, women’s rights in the 20s/30s and then again in the 70s/80s had the ability to have children w/o a man chosen to have, when you want, and don’t need marriage live in nuclear families now

controlled the use of resources with 3 generations in a house, instead of one can you afford to raise a child today one your own, work by yourself Lifestyle Changes Greatest longevity are not the top ten economically counts w/ the longs longer have the least an of indulgence doesn’t mean that you will have a higher quality of life longevity is based on environmental conditions Move money isn’t the best thing the money never matters, the more you have the more you want The highest education doesn’t correlate with economics it is a social decision, depends on social structures Age Structure plays a significant role in how we live broken down into their niche we need to change the groups, probably differs in each country 0-14 might change due to cultural changes, sooner you start the more you have 15-44 no longer 44, almost 50, medical intervention 45-older, living longer affects the age structure not stable if it’s larger on the top than the bottom puts a large load on the middle, subject to collapse problem in Japan, bottom shrunk, top heavy no immigration to make up for it seniors are the fastest growing age group in 2010 there was 27% was under 15 pre-reproductive,now they are are 18 and reproductive also have to look at the male to female ratio more men = less babies, more women = more babies depends on if women make choice to produce or not increase # of females in large cities, ratio is 1-5, but most are career minded Trends of Age Structures Broad Base, lots of under 15, Rapidly Growing like India, Nigeria who have a large # of children heading into reproductive years Expanding slowly, nice pyramid, now the top is getting bigger, living longer US, Australia, China Stable, almost to replacement level Japan, Italy, Greece Declining, population is mostly at top Germany, Bulgaria, Russia The decline in Russia has caused political motives to re-colonize republics if the population declines could be stabilized by bring the countries together when they divided, they suffered b/c they didn’t have the same access to resources when you pool your resources, there will be less interspecific competition representation of the future of a country More developed to less developed

stable to under reproductive if they have a high disease rate in children, the larger amount could starve or die Populations Made Up of Mostly Older People Can Decline Rapidly Slow Decline Manageable Rapid Decline Economic problems proportionally fewer young people working labor shortages in agricultural period, there was a high death rate and a low birth rate demographic transition rely on population decline during period of economic growth b/c the focus goes to work and delay families and births 4 to 15 years later, there is a sudden surge in the population now they have decide to start their families increase in death rates, then decline once it stabilizes logistic growth show grow and then slow down baby boom then the baby bust

Populations Can Decline due to a Rising Death Rate: The AIDS Tragedy AIDS has killed more than 30 million people Many young adults die - loss of most productive workers Sharp drop in life expectancy International community Reduce the spread of HIV through education and health care FInancial assistance and volunteers

In Botswana, more than 25% of people ages 1549 were infected with HIV in 2011. This figure

shows two projected age structures for Botswana’s population in 2020 - one including the possible effects of the AIDS epidemic (red bars), and the other not including those effects (yellow bars)

How Can We Slow Human Population Growth? We can slow human population growth by reducing poverty, elevating status of women, and encouraging family planning The First Step is to promote Economic Development Demographic Transition As countries become industrialized First death rates decline Then birth rates decline Four stages Preindustrial Transitional Industrial Postindustrial

The demographic transition, which a county can experience as it becomes industrialized and more economically developed, can take place in four stages

US - post industrial we have to realize that the pollution is supposed to level off Most countries are trapped in Stage 2 can’t get out of the transition period makes the population continue to rise, but they have no resources to improve it the quality of life has improving during depression/dust bowl, farmers were stuck the more food they grew, the less they could get, and the bigger problem they had the quality of life is reduced b/c they weren’t able to step up every developing country is trying to get out of this stage Empowering Women Can Slow Population Growth Factors that decrease total fertility rates: Education Paying Jobs Ability to control fertility Women: Do most of the domestic work and childcare Provide unpaid health care 2/3 of all work for 10% of world’s income Discriminated against legally and culturally 1920s women’s rights, financial, education benefits If we slowed population growth down poverty, malnutrition, environmental degradation people won’t give birth to more children different views of conditions Family Planning Can Provide Several Benefits Family planning in less-developed countries Responsible for a 55% drop in TFRs Financial benefits - money spent on family planning saves more in health, education costs Two problems 42% pregnancies unplanned, 26% end with abortion Many couples do not have access to family planning Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in India Population: 1.26 billion people in 2012 Problems Poverty, malnutrition, and environmental degradation Causes Bias toward having male children Poor couples want many children Only 47% of couples use family planning Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in China: A Success Story World’s most populous country Threat of mass starvation in the 1960s

Government established a strict family planning and birth control program Reduced number of children born per woman from 5.7 to 1.5 China went from 70% poverty rate to 8% growth in their economy they have sustain this 8% growth, even though they have slowed the population, only 10-15% poverty now largest middle class in the world they got out of the transitional stage Pre-industrial death/birth rates fluctuate Transition people live longer and the population jumps birth rate stays constant, death rate decrease Post- Industrial can be a phase where it still has lots of people Three Big Ideas The human population is increasing rapidly and may soon bump up against environmental limits Increasing use of resources per person Expanding the overall human ecological footprint and putting a strain on the earth’s resources We can slow population growth by reducing poverty through economic development, elevating the status of women, and encouraging family planning Tying It All Together: World Population Growth and Sustainability Exponential growth is unsustainable in the long run Employing solar and other renewable technologies can help cut: Pollution Emissions of climate-changing gases Reuse and Recycle Materials Focus on preserving biodiversity...