GOVT 2305 Term Paper - Grade: 96 PDF

Preview

Summary

Term Paper...

Description

Abraham 1 Anesa Abraham Professor Rasmussen GOVT 2305 01 July 2020 Who is going to win the Presidential Election in November? By closely analyzing historical precedents, data, and statistics of past elections, it is proven that Trump will take the title of president once again. Every opinionated poll asserts that the Democratic nominee Joe Biden will win in November. But haven’t we been here before. In 2016, almost every poll indicated that Hilary Clinton would be the 45th president of the United States of America (Mercer 1). As a matter of fact, Hilary Clinton did win the overall national popular vote. However, the US Presidential election is dictated by the electoral college system and the winner has to secure a majority of the seats in the Electoral college of 538 electors from all 50 states. Back in 2016, Trump won the electoral votes by winning swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. The two most populous states of California and New York gave her the majority in the national popular vote, but she lost considerably, in the electoral college (Griffin 1). In order to win the election, the candidate needs to accumulate 270 votes. The carefully analyzed prediction regarding the swing states Trump will win will be Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin, and therefore win the election. Currently, Joe Biden is ahead in of President Donald Trump in the presidential race. He is leading in the swing states and is up between 5 and 8 points. (Page 1). However, it is important to note that presidential races can shift a lot during the final six months. Since 1940, there have been 13 incumbent presidential election races (Enten 1). There has been a 11-point difference

Abraham 2 between an average of May polls and the final result in elections, on average. Consequently, that would be greater than what is needed to change the progress of the 2020 race, if the shift occurred in Trump’s direction (Enten 1). By taking a look at the statistics where the polling leader had a 25-point advantage or less, the average difference between the polls at this point and the result has still been a fairly high 8 points. If the 2020 race moved 8 points in Trump’s direction, he’d win (Enten 1). With Covid-19 taking over content in every media outlet and the state of the world, the Biden campaign hasn’t come up with its own narrative. Biden has only debunked Trump supporters as not-very-good people and dismisses the President’s comments as despicable. Health is a key issue in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, and Biden has just pointed out that Trump gutted Obamacare. He has failed to develop a plan and explain how Obamacare can be expanded to take care of the needs of all beneficiaries, including the non-college educated senior white citizens. It was this segment which voted overwhelmingly in the 2016 presidential election. Obamacare premiums and health care costs were rising, and premiums rose two weeks before the 2016 election. It can be qualitatively concluded that the failures of Obamacare tipped the election to Trump. (Conover 1). Therefore, his lack of a concrete plan with Obamacare and healthcare reform will cost him the election. Donald Trump’s advantage as an incumbent accompanied with the American system of presidential voting known as the electoral college, the 2016 election and the failure of the polls being the deciding factor, and Biden’s struggle with a concrete healthcare plan, draws a conclusion that Trump will win again in 2020.

Abraham 3

Due to Trump’s mishandling of COVID-19 and his incendiary rhetoric concerning the nationwide protests, his reelection prospects are slim, and therefore will cause Biden to win the election in 2020. As well as economic performance, the EIU noted that there were “a number of wildcards” that would influence the outcome of the election (Taylor 1). As the protests over George Floyd’s murder, the Breonna Taylor protests demanding arrest for Louisville police, and protests demanding cities to defund the police due to the plethora of unlawful murders of African Americans, justice for the numerous protests around the nation are going to have implications, the EIU said, predicting that the use of excessive force by the police against demonstrators would lead swing voters to vote against Trump and favor Biden (Taylor 1). Trump has called the protesters in Minneapolis “thugs”, raged against the media for “doing everything within their power to foment hatred and anarchy” and endlessly slammed Democratic officials, who he said let the protests spin out of control (Abramson 1). The president’s incendiary rhetoric has even some GOP members concerned that Trump’s latest reaction to a national tragedy and phenomena will have disastrous electoral implications as independent leaning Republicans who voted for Trump in 2016 may not vote for him in 2020 again. Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey told reporters, “I do think some of his tweets have not been helpful and it would be helpful if he would change the tone of his message,” (Abrahmson 1). At the same time, his aversion for the protests and movements will mobilize black voters and aggravate suburban- middle class voters, therefore amplifying voter turnout for Biden from these two predominant demographics (Taylor 1). Biden’s appeal among African Americans, demonstrated in the primaries will provide winning margins in swing states (Tisdall 1). Voter disapproval of Donald Trump’s handling of the George Floyd protests and the Covid-19 pandemic, plus the accompanying economic meltdown, have undoubtedly hurt the president’s re-election chances, therefore helping the democratic nominee. Many Americans have criticized Trump’s handling of the pandemic, including Joe Biden. During a speech Tuesday in Delaware, he said the president “failed to

Abraham 4 protect the American people” from the COVID-19 pandemic (Verhovek 1). Along with his critical elucidations, Biden put out a new policy on the pandemic, improving his initial plan. His updated plan includes heavy focus on testing, more effectively distributing personal protective equipment (PPE), accelerating the development and distribution of COVID-19 vaccine, a more comprehensive reopening plan that stresses worker safety, and increased efforts to protect older Americans and other high-risk populations. This will prove beneficial for Biden because cases are spiking in the USA after many states reopened. Clearly, the spread of the virus hasn’t been contained, and many Americans will blame the government and will undoubtedly hurt Trumps’ reelection chances. He also vehemently emphasized wearing a mask. Something the president has unnecessarily politicized. Even medical experts are encouraged by Biden’s plan since it calls for listening to experts in the field and relying on a task force to monitor and bring about more COVID-19 testing procedures. As long as cases surge and the pandemic continues and the media continues reporting on the state of the pandemic, Americans will continuously listen to the advice of the medical experts. The reliance on the expertise of Dr. Anthony Fauci, other doctors, and medical experts for advice on dealing with the pandemic, this support from them will prove to be valuable for his election campaign. Biden has proved to be concerned for people’s individual health and has received support from African Americans during these past few months. His opponent has only proved to be a misfit and incapable of dealing with the pandemic and the protests, which will cause Trump to lose the election and for Biden to win 2020.

Abraham 5

Biden is the frontrunner in the democratic election because he is more capable of handling the COVID-19 crisis and containing the spread and due to the economic disaster because of the pandemic, Trump will be unable to recover and will lose the election, and therefore I believe Joe Biden will win. It’s no surprise that Biden’s proposed coronavirus response clashes with Trump’s actual record. Since January, Biden supported unwavering efforts and endeavors on the coronavirus pandemic while President Trump underplayed the dilemma or directed his action to anything other than taking the compulsory measures to subdue the pandemic. As cases continue to rise exponentially in many states, COVID-19 has taken over the world and has changed America and ultimately, will play a huge role in the election results. Americans need answers and need safety. Joe Biden’s coronavirus response plan demands for more investment in testing, safely reopening, encouraging mask-wearing, on centering science over politics. Biden is proposing the exact opposite of what Trump has done. His plan focuses on solely containing the spread of the virus, Trump’s plan focuses more on the economy. In this time, Americans want to see an end to this pandemic rather than get the opportunity to go to shopping malls. The term “unprecedented” has been utilized commonly to explain this event, but it is just the present-day version of the eldest and most predominant problem in American politics: government dysfunction. The pandemic itself may be less electorally consequential for Trump than its economic effects. The current president will have to deal with the ramifications of this pandemic, especially since it causes the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Historically, second-quarter GDP growth in a election year is a vital measure in estimating how an incumbent president will do in November. (Abramowitz 1). It is aberrant for presidents to win re-election

Abraham 6 during a recession (Smith 1). Only two presidents since World War II- Harry Truman and Jimmy Carter – have run for reelection in the same year as a recession. Truman won; Carter lost (Pramuk 1). A president with an abysmal approval rating and an economy in recession would have a miniscule chance of winning another term. If President Trump’s net approval rating remains constant or increasingly declines, accompanied with the recession, with real GDP sinking, the result will indefinitely be a defeat of landslide proportions. Nevertheless, causing Joe Biden to win the presidency. Joe Biden’s outcome of winning the presidency stems from Trump’s failures as a president who was unable to handle and contain the COVID-19 pandemic properly and therefore, caused a national health crisis and a deteriorating economy because he is responsible for the government’s response to the pandemic.

Abraham 7

Works Cited “2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map.” 270toWin.Com, www.270towin.com/. Abramowitz, Alan I. “Coronavirus Recession .” Sabatos Crystal Ball, 2020, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/a-coronavirus-recession-could-doom-trumpsreelection-chances/. Abramson, Alana. “How Trump's Divisive Rhetoric Could Hurt Republicans.” Time, Time, 2 June 2020, time.com/5846311/trump-protests-republican-fallout/. Conover, Chris. “Did Obamacare Cost Hillary The Election?” Forbes, Forbes Magazine, 12 Dec. 2016, www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2016/12/10/did-obamacare-cost-hillary-theelection/. Enten, Harry. “Trump Has a Real Shot of Winning.” CNN, Cable News Network, 20 May 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/politics/trump-2020-analysis/index.html. Mastroianni, Brian. “Experts Confident Biden's COVID-19 Response Could Speed Recovery.” Healthline, Healthline Media, 30 June 2020, www.healthline.com/health-news/expertsconfident-bidens-covid-19-response-could-speed-recovery. Mercer, Andrew, et al. “Why 2016 Election Polls Missed Their Mark.” Pew Research Center, Pew Research Center, 9 Nov. 2016, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016election-polls-missed-their-mark/. Page, Susan, and Sarah Elbeshbishi. “Exclusive USA TODAY Poll: Biden Widens His Lead, but Trump Keeps the Edge on Enthusiasm.” USA Today, Gannett Satellite Information Network, 30 June 2020, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/06/30/pollbiden-widens-lead-but-trump-has-enthusiasm-edge/3234610001/. Pramuk, Jacob. “A Recession in 2020 Would Hurt Trump, but It Wouldn't Necessarily Sink His Reelection.” CNBC, CNBC, 27 Aug. 2019, www.cnbc.com/2019/08/27/recession-wouldlikely-hurt-trump-in-2020-but-he-could-still-win.html. Rachel Garfield Follow @RachelLGarfield on Twitter, Kendal Orgera. “The Uninsured and the ACA: A Primer – Key Facts about Health Insurance and the Uninsured amidst Changes to the Affordable Care Act - How Many People Are Uninsured?” KFF, 13 May 2020, www.kff.org/report-section/the-uninsured-and-the-aca-a-primer-key-facts-about-healthinsurance-and-the-uninsured-amidst-changes-to-the-affordable-care-act-how-many-peopleare-uninsured/.

Abraham 8 “Road to 270: Combination Detail.” 270toWin.Com, www.270towin.com/road-to-270combinations/? mapstr=22201311106162122221135522402251351621012226431102216202. Rob Griffin, Ruy Teixeira. “Voter Trends in 2016.” Center for American Progress, www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2017/11/01/441926/voter-trends-in2016/. Scott, Dylan. “What President Joe Biden Would Do to Stop Covid-19.” Vox, Vox, 1 July 2020, www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/7/1/21310194/voxcare-biden-trump-coronavirusresponse. Smith, David. “Trump Is Struggling against Two Invisible Enemies: the Coronavirus and Joe Biden.” The Conversation, 1 July 2020, theconversation.com/trump-is-struggling-againsttwo-invisible-enemies-the-coronavirus-and-joe-biden-139667. Taylor, Chloe. “U.S. Presidential Election Odds Now Firmly in Biden's Favor, EIU Claims.” CNBC, CNBC, 24 June 2020, www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/eiu-us-presidential-electionodds-now-firmly-in-bidens-favor.html. Tisdall, Simon. “The George Floyd Murder and Covid-19 Have Hurt Trump, but Maybe Not Fatally.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 6 June 2020, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/06/floyd-covid-19-hurt-trump-but-maybe-notfatally. “View: Donald Trump May Still Win This November's Presidential Election.” The Economic Times, 9 June 2020, economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/donaldtrump-may-still-win-this-novembers-presidential-election/articleshow/76252837.cms....