Hydropower potential and development activities PDF

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Energy Policy 30 (2002) 1231–1239 Hydropower potential and development activities$ Alison Bartle Aqua-Media International Ltd., 123 Westmead Road, Sutton, Surrey, SM1 4JH, UK Abstract Technically feasible hydropower potential estimated at nearly 15 000 TW h/yr still exists in the world today, mostly...

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Energy Policy 30 (2002) 1231–1239

Hydropower potential and development activities$ Alison Bartle Aqua-Media International Ltd., 123 Westmead Road, Sutton, Surrey, SM1 4JH, UK

Abstract Technically feasible hydropower potential estimated at nearly 15 000 TW h/yr still exists in the world today, mostly in countries where increased power supplies from clean and renewable sources are most urgently needed to progress social and economic development. While it is not realistic to assume that all of this potential will be developed in the short or even medium term, it is clear that hydro has a substantial role to play in world energy supply. It can also offer a number of environmental and technical advantages, in terms of avoided generation based on fossil fuels. This paper reviews the current role hydropower is playing in the world, along with some its inherent benefits, and then looks at the remaining potential, and some specific development plans in various regions of the world. Attention is drawn to the advantages of developing hydropower as part of a multipurpose water resources scheme, often enabling it to subsidize other valuable functions of a reservoir or river system. It is shown that while the future major new hydro-developments will be in Asia, Latin America and Africa, there is also substantial scope for adding hydro-capacity at existing hydraulic schemes worldwide. r 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. Keywords: Hydropower; Potential; Development; International

1. Introduction While development of all the world’s remaining hydroelectric potential could not hope to meet future world demand for electricity, it is clear that it is the resource with the greatest capability to provide clean renewable energy to the parts of the world which at present have the greatest need. And when implemented as part of a multipurpose water resources development scheme, a hydro station can offer a number of sidebenefits, which no other source of energy can compete with.

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2. The inherent benefits of hydropower

The resources are widely spread geographically, with potential existing in about 150 countries. About 70 per cent of the economically feasible potential remains to be developed, mostly in developing countries. It is a proven and well-advanced technology, with more than a century of experience. Modern power plants provide the most efficient energy conversion process (>90 per cent). The production of peak load energy from hydro allows for the best use to be made of base-load power from other less flexible electricity sources. Although the initial investment can be relatively high, hydro has the lowest operating costs and longest plant life compared with other large-scale generating options. As part of a multipurpose scheme, hydro can help to subsidize other important functions such as irrigation water supply, navigation improvements and recreation facilities.

Some of the main beneficial characteristics specific to hydropower can be summarized as follows (IHA/IEA/ CHA, 2000):

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$ The data contained in this article are based on a world survey conducted by Hydropower & Dams in early 2001; for updated information, readers should see The Hydropower & Dams World Atlas & Industry Guide 2002, published by AquaBMedia International. E-mail address: [email protected] (A. Bartle).

3. The current role of hydro

0301-4215/02/$ - see front matter r 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. PII: S 0 3 0 1 - 4 2 1 5 ( 0 2 ) 0 0 0 8 4 - 8

There is now more than 105 000 MW of hydrocapacity under construction in the world, very often as part of multipurpose developments, which are also

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providing benefits such as irrigation water, industrial and drinking water supply, flood control, improved navigation, and so on. By far the greatest amount of current development is in Asia (84 400 MW), followed by South America (14 800 MW), Africa (2403 MW), Europe (2211 MW) and North and Central America (1236 MW) (Hydropower & Dams, 2001) The following gives a broad overview of development priorities and achievements in the countries with active hydro-development programmes.

4. Africa Africa continues to be the area of the world where hydropower will be able to play the greatest role in the future in economic development. A number of countries describe their hydro-potential as one of the most valuable resources, and the backbone to future social and economic development. There is currently about 2403 MW of new hydrocapacity under construction in 18 African nations, and in the past 2 years production from hydropower plants throughout the continent has increased by more than 2000 GW h/yr. A total of 76 000 GW h/yr is now produced from hydropower stations, with a total installed capacity of 20 300 MW. Hydro is contributing more than 50 per cent of electricity in 25 countries, and more than 80 per cent in Angola, Benin, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Guinea, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. However, only about 4 per cent of this region’s technically feasible hydro-potential has been developed, and enormous efforts are now being made across the African continent to create an ‘enabling environment’ for private investment; this is regarded as the only hope for developments on a large scale. Until now there has been a lack of confidence in investing in the area, and major power sector reforms are aimed at addressing this problem. The key countries for future activities are likely to be Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Tanzania and Uganda. But there are planned hydro projects (which have at least reached the feasibility study stage), in 30 African countries. Table 1 gives examples of some African nations with a per capita consumption of electricity of o80 kW h/yr (contrasting with 26 280 kW h/yr in Norway, 17 655 kW h/yr in Canada, and 13 800 kW h/yr in the USA). Also shown is the economically and technically feasible hydro-potential available, and theoretical data for the increase in per capita consumption which would be possible if all this potential were to be developed, at today’s population levels.

To look at some specific examples of countries where future hydro-development will make a major impact, Benin, where hydro already supplies 80 per cent of electricity, is planning to increase the country’s installed capacity by more than 100 per cent, with the development of another 100 MW hydro plant. Annual per capita electricity consumption there is at present only 49 kW h, which demonstrates clearly the need for a substantial increase in capacity. Niger, where per capita consumption is 25 kW h/yr, the first hydro plant, Kanadji, is now planned, with a capacity of 125 MW. Chad, where per capita consumption even lower, at 14 kW h/yr, and only 11 MW of the country’s 32 MW of capacity is currently in service, is now also going ahead with plans for its first hydro plant, with a capacity of 6 MW. Burkina Faso is undertaking a water management programme for the Nakanbe river (which could later be extended to other basins) and this is likely to lead to further hydro-development, which the Government regards as a high priority for the country’s social and economic development. Mali, Ghana and Liberia all place great importance on the development of their hydro-resources, as a foundation for their future progress. Mali has up to 800 MW of new hydro-capacity planned in the longterm, with several medium-sized projects at the feasibility stage; detailed financial studies have been conducted for four of them. Ghana sees hydro as the main priority, with the construction of the 400 MW Bui scheme likely to proceed, for completion in 2005. Liberia, which has suffered a long-term civil war, has had most of its power facilities damaged or destroyed, and the Liberia Electricity Corporation regards development of the country’s large hydro-potential as a major hope for the basis of economic recovery. As far as large-scale plans are concerned, the Democratic Republic of Congo has the largest potential in Africa. Its technically and economically feasible potential is calculated to be 419 TW h/yr, and future (theoretical) plans include La Gand’ Inga, which could have a capacity of between 6 and 39 GW. There are also many more medium scale (40–100 MW) and small schemes planned. More than 3000 MW could also be obtained from uprating and refurbishing existing plants. Sudan has identified technically feasible hydro projects totaling nearly 4800 MW of capacity, and two medium-scale schemes are at the feasibility study stage. Ethiopia is experiencing a major increase in demand for electricity, and considers exploitation of the potential in the Nile basin as a priority. Eighteen projects are now proposed, of a total of nearly 200 identified sites for hydro-development. Two important projects, Gilgel Gibe and Tis Abbay II, are currently under construction.

A. Bartle / Energy Policy 30 (2002) 1231–1239

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Table 1 The difference hydro could make to per capita energy consumption in some African nationsa Country

Population (million)

Present annual per capita electricity consumption (1999 data) (kW h)

Economically and technically feasible hydro potential (GW h/yr)

Increase in per capita figure if all potential were developed

Mozambique Tanzania Benin Madagascar Mali Burkina Faso Niger Ethiopia Rwanda Chad

18.1 30 5.7 13.9 10.7 10.4 10 60 8 6.4

76 63 49 46 40 27 25 22 22 14

37 647 1789 n/a 49 000 B5000 216 1300 260 000 B330 B150

(2080 kW h) (59.6 kW h) n/a (3525 kW h) (B467 kW h) (20.7 kW h) (130 kW h) (4333 kW h) (B41.25 kW h) (B23.4)

a

(Bartle and Isambert, 2001).

Nigeria has nearly 5000 MW planned for the medium and long-term, including the Zungeru (950 MW) and Mambila (3900 MW) projects. Mozambique has about 2000 MW planned for implementation over the next 10 years. Tanzania, which already has 180 MW of hydropower under construction, has seven future schemes at the feasibility study stage; the largest of these is Stigler’s Gorge (1400 MW) and the others are in the range of 40– 250 MW. Zambia and Zimbabwe have two major binational schemes planned, Batoka Gorge, which is to include a 181 m-high dam and twin 800 MW power plants for each country, and Devil’s Gorge, which would provide 600 MW each. Zambia now has three major refurbishment schemes under way, at Kafue Gorge, Kariba and Victoria Falls. Cameroon has plans for several hundred megawatts of new hydro-capacity, and also a number of refurbishment schemes. Hydro is seen as a major priority for rural electrification. Kenya has several new schemes planned, totaling 460 MW, and Malawi could implement 365 MW of hydro-capacity, including the 90 MW Lower Fufu scheme. In Uganda, where hydro provides 99 per cent of electricity, a number of private schemes are planned, including the 290 MW Bujagali scheme on the Nile, now going ahead. An extension was recently completed at the Owen Falls project. In the longer-term, there are four more projects in Uganda with capacities ranging from 180 to 642 MW. Guinea, where the 75 MW Garafiri project recently began operation, reports plans to develop more hydropower, starting with the 104 MW Kaleta scheme. Egypt is continuing with its programme of installing hydropower at its Nile barrages, with plans for about 200 MW. The power sector there is undergoing considerable growth, and capacity has doubled in the last 10 years.

Two other countries with significant hydro-potential, Eritrea and Sierra Leone, have been impeded in their development by economic difficulties. Sierra Leone’s plans have been delayed by civil war, and Eritrea, which has ideal conditions for hydro schemes, lacks the necessary infrastructure. Morocco currently has 90 MW of conventional hydro under construction, and the 450 MW Afourer pumpedstorage scheme recently went ahead. In the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the South African Power Pool is playing an important role in stimulating regional cooperation, saving on investment costs and expanding the grid system in the region. Hydro is already playing an important role in the 12 SADC countries, and recent studies have demonstrated that more than 52 GW of hydro-capacity could be added in 10 of the countries (Hepburn, 2000].

5. Asia Asia continues to be the part of the world with the greatest amount of activity in progress and planned in the field of water resources development. Nearly 84 400 MW of hydro-capacity is under construction (a large proportion of this being in China). A total of 27 Asian countries have hydro-development in progress, and the countries with more than 1000 MW under construction are: Bhutan, India, Indonesia, Iran, Japan (mainly pumped storage), Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russian Federation, Tadjikistan, Turkey and Vietnam. Asia’s current installed hydro-capacity is about 225 000 MW, which produces 754 000 GW h/yr. Hydropower currently supplies more than 50 per cent of electricity in nine countries. Planned capacity in this region totals more than 156 000 MW. China is still the world leader in hydro-development, in terms of capacity and project size, including the

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world’s largest station under construction at Three Gorges. There is currently 36 000 MW of hydro-capacity under construction at Chinese projects, and a further 50 000 MW planned. The country’s present installed hydro-capacity is 75 000 MW, which is to be increased to 125 000 MW by 2010. The Chinese government regards hydropower as the fundamental industry for China’s national economy, and is taking a number of steps to stimulate its development. Attention is being focused particularly on the exploitation of hydro-resources in the central and western part of the country to supply power to the east. Various regional grid systems are to be interconnected as part of this strategy. India also has a major programme of hydro-development continuing, with 15 400 MW under construction. Eighteen projects now being built have capacities >300 MW, the largest of which is Nathpa Jhakri (1500 MW), which is facing a number of technical challenges as a result of its remote location in the Himalayas, and adverse geological conditions. Three Indian schemes are under construction on a BOT basis: Maheshwar (400 MW), Baspa II (300 MW) and Malana (86 MW). Some of the most important projects coming up soon are: Teesta III (1200 MW), Tehri Stage II (100 MW), Karcham Wangtoo (1000 MW) and Almati (600 MW). India considers commissioning of more hydro-capacity (large and small scale) a great priority, to increase the share of hydro from 25 to 40 per cent of national capacity. Indonesia has a number of high dams under construction for irrigation and hydropower; 10 hydro projects with a total hydro-capacity of 2100 MW are now under way, and about 2000 MW more hydropower is planned. Malaysia has revived the 2400 MW Bakun project in the State of Sarawak on the island of Borneo. This was suspended for environmental and economic reasons, but construction recently resumed. The power will now be used locally, rather than being transmitted by submarine cable to peninsular Malaysia, as originally planned. Turkey also has rigorous plans for the development of its substantial hydropower potential. Nearly 5000 MW of hydro-capacity is under construction, the largest schemes being Deriner in the north of the country (670 MW) and Berke in the southeast (510 MW). Schemes built on the concept of ‘build-operate-transfer’ (BOT) are being encouraged strongly, and bilateral agreements have been signed with a number of countries to further international cooperation in hydropower development. Of 485 hydro projects which DSI (State Hydraulic Works) has identified for development in total, 104 are already in operation, 37 are under construction, and 344 (with a capacity of 10 500 MW) are planned.

By the year 2010, Turkey is planning to exploit twothirds of its hydro-potential, aiming to increase hydroproduction to about 80 000 GW h/yr. By 2020 this will rise to 110 000 GW h/yr, and by 2023 it could be 120 000 GW h/yr, in time to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Turkish Republic (Turfan, 1999). Iran also regards hydropower as a priority, as part of its ambitious water resources development programme, despite its substantial reserves of oil and gas. Recognizing the environmental benefits of hydropower, hydropower is to be installed at many of the country’s 48 large dams under construction. A total of 8000 MW is currently under construction, and a further 12 000 MW is planned. Vietnam is another Asia country with vast hydropotential, and more than 8000 MW planned at 20 plants, all of which are either at the feasibility or detailed design stage. The Vietnamese Government is also investing in small hydro schemes. Private development is being strongly encouraged, in an effort to meet the country’s rapidly increasing demand for power. Pakistan has 1634 MW of hydro under construction and several gigawatts planned, including the 2400 MW Kalabagh scheme, revived after a 10 year delay. The 184 MW Chasma scheme was recently commissioned, and Ghazi Barotha (450 MW) is now at the half-way stage. In Philippines, the main activity at present is the San Roque multipurpose scheme, which incorporates a 200 m-high dam and a 345 MW powerplant. Five smaller projects are planned to be implemented before 2010, with capacities ranging from 33 to 225 MW. Nepal regards progressive development of its vast hydro-potential as a big priority, and has plans to implement up to 3000 MW by 2016. Seven schemes are now under construction, ranging in size from 5 to 61 MW. These are run-of-river projects, but the future trend is to be towards storage schemes. Two large-scale schemes being considered for the future are West Seti and Pancheshwar (a binational project to be developed with India), but the main priority will be on small and medium-scale projects. The 144 MW Kali Gandaki scheme is now under way, and Middle Marsyangdi (70 MW) is likely to be the next to go ahead. Myanmar has been accelerating its development of power projects recently, with installed capacity having more than doubled in the last 10 years from 400 to 1058 MW. Aims are to increase this capacity to 1500 MW in the short term, which could lead to more development of the country’s substantial hydro-potential. A 20 MW scheme (Zaungtu) was recently commissioned, and three more projects totaling 385 MW could be implemented soon. In Laos, eight major dam schemes are planned principally for hydropower generation. The country has only developed about 2 per cent of its vast

A. Bartle / Energy Policy 30 (2002) 1231–1239

hydro-potential, and projects totaling 6431 MW have so far been identified. Several hydro projects have also been identified in Cambodia, where the total installed capacity is only 11 MW. Demand is expected to require an increase to 477 MW by 2010. Several medium-scale schemes could go ahead, and there is a possibility of a large (470 MW) project on the border with Thailand. Bhutan, with a technically feasible hydro-potential of about 70 TW h/yr, regards hydro as the ‘backbone of the economy’ and has a major programme for future development, incl...