Inference to The Best Explanation (Philosophical-sociology) PDF

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Mrs. Kamera Sociology from UGGSD PS...

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“Inference to the Best Explanation” Learning Objectives: 1. Explanations and Inferences 2. Theories and Consistency 3. Theories and Criteria 4. Telling Good Theories from Bad

1. Explanations and Inference - Explanation: Why/How Something is the case a) procedural—they try to explain how something is done or how an action is carried out. (“She opened up the engine, then examined the valves, and then checked the carburetor.”) b) Some are interpretive—they try to explain the meaning of terms or states of affairs. (“This word means ‘fancy’ or ‘showy.’”) c) And some are functional or teleological—they try to explain how something functions. (“The heart circulates and oxygenates the blood.”) - Argument: Reasons for believing that something is the case Explanation that is relevant here is: Theoretical Explanation (A theory, or hypothesis, that tries to explain why something is the way it is, why something is the case, or why something happened.) - Theoretical explanations, of course, are claims. They assert that something is or is not the case. ●

Inference to the Best Explanation: A form of inductive reasoning in which we reason from premises about a state of affairs to an explanation for that state of affairs: - Example: Phenomenon Q. E provides the best explanation for Q. Therefore, it is probable that E is true. - Example: The new quarterback dropped the ball again. The best explanation for that screw-up would be that he’s nervous. So I think he’s definitely nervous. - Example: The best explanation for Maria’s absence today is that she’s angry at the boss. Yeah, she’s mad at the boss all right.

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Abductive Reasoning/Abduction: Process involved in making an inference - Involves looking at a phenomenon, or a set of circumstances, and putting forward a hypothesis as to what would be a good explanation for that phenomenon or those circumstances. - Formal Process: OTE= Observation, background theory, explanation - Example: O = a bang outside T = cars sometimes backfire, making a bang E = a car backfired outside your house - Is E consistent with T?

2. Theories and Consistency ● Internal consistency: A theory that is internally consistent is free of contradictions. - If we show that a theory contains an internal contradiction, we have refuted it ● External consistency: A theory that is externally consistent is consistent with the data it’s supposed to explain. - If a theory is externally inconsistent, we have reason to believe that it’s false 3. Theories and Criteria - Just because something is weird does not mean we should disregard it ● Criteria of Adequacy: The standards used to judge the worth of explanatory theories. They include testability, fruitfulness, scope, simplicity, and conservatism. ➢ Testability: Testable—there is some way to determine whether the theories are true or false - A theory is testable if it predicts something other than what it was introduced to explain ➢ Fruitfulness: —to yield new insights that can open up whole new areas of research and discovery. This fruitfulness suggests that the theories are more likely to be true. ➢ Scope: A theory with scope is one that explains or predicts phenomena other than that which it was introduced to explain (diversity) ➢ Simplicity: A simple theory is one that makes as few assumptions as possible. - * Ad Hoc Hypothesis: A hypothesis, or theory, that cannot be verified independently of the phenomenon it is supposed to explain. Ad hoc hypotheses always make a theory less simple—and therefore less credible. ➢ Conservatism: A conservative theory is one that fits with our established beliefs.

4. Telling Good Theories from Bad ● Test Formula: - Step 1. State the Theory and check for consistency. - Step 2. Assess the Evidence for the theory. - Step 3. Scrutinize alternative theories. - Step 4. Test the theories with the criteria of adequacy....