Lâm-Nguyễn-Tâm-Như 195021588 Mô-hình-tài-chính PDF

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University of Economic and FinanceFINANCIAL MODELMasan Consumer CorporationModelLecturer: Từ Cao ÁnhGroup members:No .Name Student ID Duties1 Nguyễn Minh Thông 18001048 0Word (PA), Excel (Model, Processing cost, Scenarios 1, Scenarios 2)100%2 Trần Trung Nghĩa 18007020 6Word (PA), Excel (Model, Activ...

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University of Economic and Finance

FINANCIAL MODEL Masan Consumer Corporation Model Lecturer: Từ Cao Ánh Group members: No . 1

Name

Student ID Duties

Nguyễn Minh Thông

18001048 0

2

Trần Trung Nghĩa

18007020 6

3

Lê Trần Trung Hiếu

19501352 0

4

Lâm Nguyễn Tâm Như 19502158 8

Word (PA.3), Excel (Model, Processing cost, Scenarios 1, Scenarios 2) Word (PA.4), Excel (Model, Activity ratio, Idea scenarios), PPT Word (PA.1), Excel (Model, BS & PnL analysis, Liquidity ratio, Idea scenarios) Word (PA.2, PB,PC), Excel (Model, Sensitive report, idea scenarios)

100%

100% 100%

100%

Ho Chi Minh City – 12.2021

Table of Contents I.

General report...........................................................................................................1 1.1.

Business Idea.....................................................................................................1

1.2.

Vision & Mission..............................................................................................2

II. Analysis & Scenarios:...............................................................................................2 2.1. Analysis.............................................................................................................2 2.1.1. Analysis Sector...............................................................................................2 2.1.2. Analysis Competors.......................................................................................4 2.1.3. SWOT............................................................................................................4 2.2. Analysis PnL and Balance Sheet.....................................................................6 2.2.1. Revenue..........................................................................................................7 2.2.2. Cost................................................................................................................8 2.2.3. Effectiveness..................................................................................................8 2.2.4. Sensitive report.............................................................................................12 2.3. Financial ratio.................................................................................................16 2.3.1. Liquidity ratio...............................................................................................16 2.3.2. Activity ratio................................................................................................17 2.4.

Risk..................................................................................................................19

III.Conclusion.................................................................................................................20

I. General report I.1.

Business Idea

a) Instant Noodle Market - Before creating Omachi Vifon is one of Vietnam's first instant noodle factories before 1975. After 1975, the leading brands in the field of instant noodles include Vifon, Miliket, Colusa, which are factories State- owned instant noodles and so familiar to consumers from urban to rural areas during the food and subsidy years of the subsidy period. The market has begun to boom and a strong product development trend in the field of visual marketing has emerged as a joint venture between Vifon and a Japanese business in 1993, Vifon Acecook. and develop in Vietnam market. - After creating Omachi in 2007, the three main brands are Hao Hao, Hao 100 and Red Bear, with more than 50% of the sector's media budget and dense market coverage plus a myriad of unregistered products. It is unwise for any new player to join b) History of Establishment and Development - In 2003, Masan Trading Joint Stock Company was established on the basis of the merger of Viet Tien Industry - Technology - Trading Joint Stock Company and Minh Viet Tien Import - Export Industry Joint Stock Company. - November 2004 Established Masan Marine Joint Stock Company (MSC) with initial chartered capital of VND 3,200,000,000. Masan Group registered the procedure of a public company and officially became a public company on October 16, 2009. Identify and evaluate business and investment opportunities in areas benefiting from consumer and domestic distribution. Increase capital to finance current business and new investments. Operate subsidiaries and associates, and advise on strategic development plans. - Since March 10, 2011, Masan Food has changed its name in Vietnam: Company Name in Vietnamese: Masan Consumer Corporation (Masan). Company name written in English: Masan Consumer Corporation Abbreviated company name: Masan Consumer Corp “Together, we gather the aspirations and talents of Vietnam to create a powerful business power. Together, we will build a happy future for everyone.” (Chairman of Masan Group).

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I.2.

Vision & Mission a) Vision:

- Recognized as Asia's leading, most successful consumer goods company by 2020. It is measured by two factors: The most effective competition; Speed of development, innovation, creativity

b) Mission: - Constantly creating breakthrough value and as every day we improve the materialand spiritual life of consumers - Convert each line item - The mission is based on 4 elements: + Focus on consumers + Constant innovation + Nothing is impossible + Spirit of victory

II. Analysis & Scenarios: II.1. II.1.1.

Analysis Analysis Sector

- Facing the impact of the fourth wave of the COVID-19 epidemic, our country is facing great opportunities and challenges in all aspects. One of the economic sectors most affected by that wave cannot be ignored, not to mention businesses doing business in the market, when at least 70% of manufacturing factories in the South had to suspend. work during the break. However, with the success of the vaccination policy along with the increasingly widespread application of digital technology, the soon economic recovery will not be far away, besides the previous decline in profits will also bring negative consequences. The opportunity for investors can be based on buying stocks of companies at low prices in difficult times and selling at high prices when the economy has recovered. Besides, capturing stable growing industries is also a great advantage when there are still some industries that are still earning good profits in 2021. According to Vietnam Report, real estate - construction industry, industry Finance and the food beverage industry have always maintained their positions as the top 3 industries with the largest number of businesses in the PROFIT500 Ranking.

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- Notably, in which the food - beverage industry is always stable and in turn fluctuates around 10%, this is considered one of the industries with growth potential and positively contributes to the recovery of the economy. Vietnam in the near future. The production value of the food production and processing industry accounted for the highest proportion of 19.1% in the group of processing and manufacturing industries of Vietnam. Besides, the expanding influence of online shopping also brings convenience and packaged products to the top of the top consumed foods.

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- Accordingly, on October 20, 2021, Vietnam Assessment Report Joint Stock Company officially announced the Top 10 prestigious food companies in 2021 - Industry group: Packaged food, seasoning packages, cooking oil. Masan is the leading company with the criteria of Financial Capacity, Media Reputation, Survey of Research Subjects and stakeholders are all very balanced. On the other hand, in the food industry, according to the stock exchanges, Masan is also ranked 2nd, just behind the giant VHM. MSN has a PE of up to 85.9, showing high expectations of investors in this company compared to other companies.

II.1.2.

Analysis Competors

According to the statistics of the World Instant Noodles Association, Vietnam stands in the side of instant noodles consumption, which shows that Vietnam is a very potential market for this item. Overall, the Vietnamese instant noodle market is dominated by three big players, Vina Acecook (51.5%), Massan Food (16.5%), Asia Food (12.1%). Currently, Massan's main competitor is Vina Acecook, with product orientation as well as clearly defined customer segments that the company wants to target, Vina Acecook and Massan have quite similar steps, when Vina Acecook targets the lower segment through affordable products like Hao Hao, Massan also has Kokomi products for its lower segment, similarly Massan has Omachi, Vina Acecook has Mikochi with the same criteria. "Khong lo bi nong" to serve the mid-range segment with similar prices. Always facing each other in all aspects, Vina Acecook has strong financial potential along with many years of experience in the field of instant noodles. so beating Vina Acecook to dominate the market is really not an easy task.

II.1.3.

SWOT

a) Strengths: - Omachi brand is a famous noodle brand in the high-end segment of Masan Group. - Extensive distribution and agent system: Currently, Omachi products are distributed together with the Winmart retail system of Masan Group in particular 4

and the system of other supermarkets in general. Masan's product distribution network is very strong, but most of it covers the whole country. - Masan Group is a multi-industry corporation with large charter capital. b) Weaknesses: - The price of Omachi products is considered high in the instant noodle market segment. - The level of Omachi brand recognition is not high (Because the market for instant noodles in Vietnam is usually popular brands). c) Opportunities: - Growing instant noodle market: It is forecasted that in the future the demand for instant noodles will increase in general and the high-end instant noodle market in particular. - Currently, Vietnam has joined global trade organizations or regional trade agreements, so the ability to export products to countries around the world will become more favorable. d) Threats: - Competition in the instant noodle market in Vietnam: Currently, the instant noodle market is having fierce competition among big companies such as Vina Acecook, Asia Food, Vifon, Uni-President, Massan, Miliket... occupying more than 90% market share with various domestic brands and foreign brands present in Vietnam market. - A prolonged epidemic can also lead to many negative consequences such as an increase in product costs due to a sharp increase in input material prices.

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II.2. II.2.1.

Analysis PnL and Balance Sheet Revenue

The original selling price of the product Mì Omachi Xốt Bò Hầm

Direct Materials Cost: Wheat Flour & Seasoning Packages Fixed costs for all operations at the company Quantity demanded corresponds to selling price Corresponding Processing Cost Quantity demanded

Table 1 - Yearly profit model of Masan Company with Mì Omachi Xốt Bò Hầm.

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a) Price: - The group first searched for information on the price of the product Mì Omachi Xốt Bò Hầm is one of the best-selling products and has an average selling price of 8000 VND compared to other products of the company in the section dedicated to the company. to customers on Masan's website. b) Quantity demanded: - The team then read through market analyzes of the Packaged Food industry in combination with the quarterly revenue information in the financial statements and the selling prices of the products found to make assumptions about the relationship between the quantity demanded of Mì Omachi Xốt Bò Hầm. The group found that the convenience food industry accounted for 30% (6882 billion) of the company's net revenue and if only the product of Mì Omachi Xốt Bò Hầm was estimated 5% in the revenue of the Packaged Food segementation, then Masan would sell about 5.200.000 thousand packages per year. From this, we can infer the relationship between selling price and quantity demanded of Masan through a intercept of 30.000.000 and a slope of -3100.

II.2.2.

Cost

- After obtaining the quantity demanded data, the group continued to predict the processing cost of a pack of noodles by making assumptions about the change in quantity demanded around the quantity demanded and then drawing conclusions about the system. The intercept and slope in the linear relationship between processing costs and selling prices are -326.8791209 and , respectively. - For raw materials and fixed costs, the group is based on information about the ingredients in each Mì Omachi Xốt Bò Hầm product and the financial statements to make the most reasonable assumptions for the product. maybe.

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Table 2 – Table showing the correlation between Quantity Demanded and Processing Cost

II.2.3.

Effectiveness

Table 3 – Profit Model per year - Once they had collected all the information on the costs, prices and quantity demanded of the products, the group realized that Mì Omachi Xốt Bò Hầm business was relatively efficient because after deducting This product cost and tax still brings in a profit of up to 17.783.094.857 VND for a year, ie 43% of revenue. However, the cost of this product is relatively large, reducing profit by 47% compared to the initial revenue, in which the cost of raw materials is the most affected part. Therefore, the Manager devises business scenarios to develop Masan in terms of breadth and depth in the economy, and at the same time improve business efficiency for products.

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a) Scenario 1: - To expand the market, Masan Co company to export the following 3 sales plans, corresponding to the corresponding costs incurred according to the plan: + Method 1:Direct sales at WinMart and WinMart+ store chains - Repairing and upgrading the premises at the store incurs an expense equivalent to 2,000,000,000 VND/year + Method 2: Distributing to supermarket systems - Reduced selling price of Mì Omachi Xốt Bò Hầm to 7,600 VND/product. Commission cost 4%/product without limit. + Method 3:Distributing to retail stores - Reduced selling price of Mì Omachi Xốt Bò Hầm to 7,800 VND/product. The cost of placing advertisements for products at the store totals 2,190,000,000 VND/year - Before a sales method is selected, the company needs to analyze the break-even point of these methods. - To more accurately estimate the outputs of the model the analyst uses the Goal Seek tool. Goal Seek will search for the required value of the input variables so that the model gives the desired output variable value. - Masan Company is interested in the points where options 2 and 3 will have a net profit equivalent to option 1. Based on quantitative numbers calculated with hypothetical information on Quantity Demanded and Cost Processing costs will help the company make a decision to choose the appropriate sales method.

Table 4 – Cost and Quantity Demanded Correspondingly Equivalent Profits Across Sales Methods

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b) Scenario 2: - In order to diversify products, Masan Co Company plans to produce 2 more new products, Mì Omachi Sườn Hầm Ngũ Quả, and Mì Omachi Tôm chua cay. The materials for the two main types of Noodles are Wheat Flour and Seasoning Packs with the respective costs described in the table below. Each year, the company can only ship out a maximum of 30,000,000,000 VND of Wheat Flour and 10,000,000,000 VND of Seasoning Packages to ensure sufficient production balance for the next year. According to the plan, Mì Omachi Xốt Bò Hầm are sold at the price of VND 8,000/product, VND 7,500/product The company finds the quantity to produce that maximizes yearly revenue. The company finds the quantity to produce that maximizes yearly revenue. - The first step in formulating the optimal model is to note the constraints. The specific constraints in the above scenario are stated as + Unit price of each type of product + Raw materials to produce the product (Wheat Flour and Seasoning Packs) with constraints on Limit of Inventory in the period, Unit cost of raw materials for each type of product. - In the model there will be only one objective function to be established: Maximize Profit. With the Solver tool, it will find a solution that must maximize the original Objective Function but still satisfy the pre-set constraints.

Table 5 – Production table of products corresponding to Maximum Profit

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Table 6 – Multi-Product Model with Maximum Profit

II.2.4.

Sensitive report

- From the calculated data from the options, the group assumes the change of variables affecting profit at the rate of 5% in order to observe the change of profit through which to know the level of impact as well. such as the effectiveness of the project when affected by factors. a) Scenario 1: - This scenario has 3 options corresponding to the following Data Tables:

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Sensitivity analysis option 1 50,000,000,000 ₫ 40,000,000,000 ₫ 30,000,000,000 ₫ 20,000,000,000 ₫ 10,000,000,000 ₫ -₫ 8,000 ₫ -10,000,000,000 ₫ -20,000,000,000 ₫ -30,000,000,000 ₫

8,400 ₫

Turnover Fixed fee compensation

8,820 ₫

9,261 ₫

Total variable cost Profit

9,724 ₫

10,210 ₫

Cost increases

Sensitivity analysis option 2 60,000,000,000 ₫ 50,000,000,000 ₫ 40,000,000,000 ₫ 30,000,000,000 ₫ 20,000,000,000 ₫ 10,000,000,000 ₫ -₫ 7,633 ₫ -10,000,000,000 ₫

8,015 ₫ Turnover Fixed fee compensation

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8,415 ₫

8,836 ₫

Total variable cost Profit

9,278 ₫ Cost increases

9,742 ₫

Sensitivity analysis option 3 50,000,000,000 ₫ 40,000,000,000 ₫ 30,000,000,000 ₫ 20,000,000,000 ₫ 10,000,000,000 ₫ -₫ 7,803 ₫ -10,000,000,000 ₫

8,194 ₫

8,603 ₫

9,033 ₫

9,485 ₫

9,959 ₫

-20,000,000,000 ₫ Turnover Fixed fee compensation

Total variable cost Profit

Fixed fee compensation

- After increasing the cost and selling price of each option by 5%, the analyst finds that the project's profitability is particularly sensitive to changes in selling price because with only a small change in price Selling changed profits a lot. In contrast, the change in business efficiency when having the impact of additional costs is not significant. In general, the options are still not considered to be financially viable because the project will gradually lose its effectiveness if negative factors affect it. b) Scenario 2:

Sensitivity of Mì Xốốt Bò Hầầm 80,000,000,000 ₫ 70,000,000,000 ₫ 60,000,000,000 ₫ 50,000,000,000 ₫ 40,000,000,000 ₫ 30,000,000,000 ₫ 20,000,000,000 ₫ 10,000,000,000 ₫ -₫ 8,000 8,300 8,600 8,900 9,200 9,500 9,800 10,100 10,400 Net Profit

9.800 10.100 10.400

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43.521.511.318 ₫ 34.979.330.007 ₫ 25.228.496.781 ₫

Price 7.500 7.800 8.100 8.400 8.700 9.000 9.300 9.600 9.900

Tôm Chua Cay Profit 69.392.908.984 ₫ 69.392.908.984 ₫ 69.838.059.015 ₫ 69.074.557.133 ₫ 67.102.403.336 ₫ 63.921.597.625 ₫ 59.532.140.000 ₫ 53.934.030.460 ₫ 47.127.269.007 ₫ 39.111.855.638 ₫

Sensitivity of Mì Tốm Chua Cay 80,000,000,000 ₫ 70,000,000,000 ₫ 60,000,000,000 ₫ 50,000,000,000 ₫ 40,000,000,000 ₫ 30,000,000,000 ₫ 20,000,000,000 ₫ 10,000,000,000 ₫ -₫ 7,500 7,800 8,100 8,400 8,700 9,000 9,300 9,600 9,900 Profit

8.800 9.100 9.400

64.904.549.603 ₫ 59.926.208.007 ₫ 53.739.214.496 ₫

- The second scenario shows that a 5% decrease in sales of 3 noodle products will reduce the company's profits ...