Lecture 2 - Professor Mary Walsh PDF

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Week 2 Lecture Australian Politics, the 2010, 2013 & 2016 Federal Election   Background 2016 Election  Abbott forms government after defeating Rudd (taken leadership from Gillard 74 days before)  Abbott government 90 seat majority in House of Reps, but does not control the sen...

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Week 2 Lecture Australian Politics, the 2010, 2013 & 2016 Federal Election Background 2016 Election  Abbott forms government after defeating Rudd (taken leadership from Gillard 74 days before)  Abbott government 90 seat majority in House of Reps, but does not control the senate.  Abbott's 2014 Budget not received well.  Second budget moved away from trying to suggest that there was a budget emergency.  The conservative media became critical of the Abbott government  9 Feb 2015 - the Liberal Party sat Abbott down and said that he needs to change his leadership style and he gave 6 months to do so.  Monday 14 September 2015, Turnbull announces his intention to challenge Abbott for the leadership. 10pm that evening Turnbull was the new leader of the Coalition. Background Federal Elections  Post WW2 Coalition government was for 23 years until 1972  1972 - 1975 ALP Whitlam Government: coalition stopped the money flow so this government couldn't function.  1975 - 1983 Coalition Government  1983 - 1996 ALP Hawke Government: accords, no strikes that cripple the economy (83 - 91) and Keating Government (91 - 96)  1996 - 2007 Howard Coalition Government: 2005 controlled both houses  ALP Rudd Government 2007 - June 2007  ALP Gillard Government June 2010  ALP Rudd Government (June 2013 - September 2013)  Abbott Government (2013 - 2015)  Turnbull Government (2015) 2007 Federal Election Results House of Representatives  Rudd government forms after Howard government in power 1996 - 2017  House of Reps  ALP - 88 seats  Coalition - 59 seats  Greens - 0 seats  Independents 3 seats 2010 Federal Election Results House of Representatives  An uncertain outcome for weeks after the election  A hung parliament  Minority government  ALP - 73 seats (plus one Greens seat = 74)  Coalition - 73 seats (Katter goes with Coalition = 74)  Independents - 3 seats (2 left after Katter)  Gillard forms a minority government with Independents (Tony Windsor Rob Oakeshott) 2010 Federal Election Results Senate

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Senate composition (as of June 2011) Greens gain control of the Senate 35 Coalition senators 31 Labor senators 9 Green senators 1 Independent - Nick Xenophon Other independent Steve Fielding out

Minority Government  Is minority government more democratic? : Could argue that it is because it means the smaller voices must be hear.  Do Australians really dislike minority government or do they relish the fact that the two major parties no longer completely dominate Australian politics. ALP Campaign Position  Campaign Launch - Brisbane 16.8.10  Bob Hawke was brought out  Gillard unscripted - "Moving Forward"  Stronger economy  Better hospitals and schools  Better economic managers  Broadband for e-medicine Coalition Campaign Position  End wasteful spending  Pay back the debt  Stop new taxes  Stop the boats  "We will make Australia stronger and safer"  Action Contract  Stand up for Australia  Vote out a bad government, not deserve second chance  2010 election a referendum on execution of Rudd Policy Divide  Are both major parties are the same?  What does the 2010 policy divide add to this conversation? Main Policy Difference - ALP  Economy - small debt and manageable  Budget - $3.5 bn surplus by 2013  Mining tax - will go ahead in 2012  Company tax - 29% for small business in 2012-13 and in 2013-14 for companies  Broadband - government owned NBN to cost $43 bn  Paid parental leave - starts Jan 2011, 18 weeks at minimum wage paid by taxpayer  Super - SGC to increase from 9% - 12%  Infrastructure - $2 bn fund paid for by mining tax  Immigration - reduce intake to sustainable  Health - implement Rudd reforms to provide 60% hospital funding  Education - increase funding for schools and training

Main Policy Difference - Coalition  Economy - debt dangerously high  Budget - $6.2 bn surplus by 2013  Mining tax - will be scrapped  Company tax - 28% from 2014-15  Broadband - scrap NBN, $6 bn public/private alternative  Paid parental leave - starts July 2012 at mother's wage funded by 1.5% levy on big business  Super - scrap plan to go to 12%  Infrastructure - bonds with tax incentives for private investors  Immigration - cut intake to 170,000 per year & increase focus on skills  Health - greater power to local hospital boards, 40% hospital funds  Education - reallocate spending, performance incentives for teaching staff Leader Profiles - PM Gillard  A woman (focus - hair, ears, clothes, not married and no children)  Skilled negotiator (once in a generation)  Perceived as stabbing Kevin Rudd in the back - how fair is this assessment? The Opposition Leader Profile - Abbott  Family man (wife and three daughters)  Health minister in Howard government  Fit and strong - red speedos  A shift from "mad monk" tag to liberal golden boy that brings Libs back and "in business"  Won leadership against Turnbull Dec 09 by one vote (43/42), which was Peter Slipper's vote Past Election Wins in Australian Federal Elections  1975 Fraser Coalition Government - 55 seats majority  1983 ALP Hawke Government - 5 seat majority  1996 Howard Government - 45 seat majority  2007 Rudd Government - 18 seat majority  2010 Gillard Government (minority government - form government with key independents)  2013 Abbott Government (90 seat majority)  2016 Turnbull Government (1 seat majority) Federal Election 2010  National issues: WA not being super keen on being part of a whole Australia, tension between QLD and NSW state governments and federal government Kevin Rudd Factor  Much discussed as a key factor in swing against Labor  Takes seat of Griffith (QLD) 44% primary  Fair go, compassion, future of Australia  Our identity as a party & as a movement  The taking out of the standing PM

Latham Factor  Ambush on PM Gillard  Protesting her "brushing him off"  His encounters with Laurie Oakes  Political journalist for 60 minutes  Encouraging Australian's to go to polling booth but cast no vote Bob Brown - "Greenslide"  Birth of a new political movement  Come of age (undisputed third party)  More loving and responsive  Use vote responsibly  Give leadership and innovation  House of Reps seat - Adam Bandt (Melbourne)  Senate - 9 seats  New Federal leader 2012 - Christine Milne - 2015 Richard di Natale Gillard Post Election Nigh Speech  Strong democracy, uncertain result  Continuity of stable and effective government  Desire for change in Australian politics  New type of politics, new ideas  Reform of parliament  Strong policy and vision of the future Gillard Government 1. Mining tax 2. Carbon price 3. Asylum seekers 4. Changes to disability pensions 5. NBN 6. Gonski Two Years On  Carbon price passed 12 October 2012  Mining tax passed 23 November 2012  NDIS in negotiation with NSW and VIC on board  Asylum seeker policy - agreement with Coalition 14 August 2012 after release of report headed by Angus Houston to Government Three Years On  NDIS  Gonski education reforms (some liberal states with not get on board)  NBN  PM Gillard does 6 things not three and is hampered by Liberals not supporting the Malaysia solution due to objections about human rights  Wed 26 June 2013 - Rudd challenges again for the leadership of ALP and PM job result 57/45 to Rudd  Rudd says he cannot stand back and watch ALP crash

What Does it Mean?  Rudd has been undermining the former PM for years with media leaks  Not just Gillard and ALP vs Liberals but Liberals and Rudd  The Rudd Factor - (The Stalking of Julia Gillard)  Negative account of minority government led by a woman (it will fall any day - well it didn't) - plus conservative press attack even though it it more democratic? Election 2013  Where is the outrage over PM Gillard being taken out? The silence is deafening  Key issues (economic management, asylum seekers, NBN, debt and deficit, school funding, leadership styles, political party values)  Rudd indicates that in a Election debate Sunday 11 August 2013 that he will support same-sex marriage Outcome of 2013 Federal Election House of Reps (150 seats)  Liberal 58  QLD Liberal National 22  National 9  NT CLP 1  ALP 55  Crossbench 5  Independents 2  Greens 1  PUP 1  Katter 1 Outcome of 2013 Federal Election Senate  76 seats in total of which 40 are contested at election to form new senate 1 July 2014  Lib Coalition 33  ALP 25  Greens 10  Crossbench 8  (PUP 3, Motoring 1, LNP 1, Family First 1, DLP 1 and Independent 1) Political Party Values  Andrew Leigh – “ Liberals are conservatives while Labor is the true party of Alfred Deakin” The Australian, 10 January 2013, p. 10.  “In the US, if you want to insult a right-winger call them a liberal” p. 10.  

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“Since the Liberal Party leadership has shifted from Malcolm Turnbull to Tony Abbott, theirs is more a party of Edmund Burke than John Stuart Mill” p.10. “Everyone knows what the Liberal Party stands against, but what does it stand for? As political commentator Peter van Onselen argued recently, “It is high time the Liberal Party changed its name to the Conservative Party” (p. 10) The ALP is the new Liberal Party – Bowen (2013) focus – the individual. According to Michael Sandel, “Labor believes in a market economy not a market society” (p. 10). What is the difference? Liberal party abandons social liberalism. Implications

Assessment - Abbott Government  Stopping the Boards - Operation Sovereign Borders  Axing the Tax - axe carbon price July 2014  Debt and deficit ("budget emergency" or structural adjustments and revenue in the future)  Ending the "Age of Entitlement"  Paid Parental Leave policy (later abandoned after first leadership challenge)  The issue of trust and election promises  The populations disenchantment with the government (youth, unemployed, age pensioners, disability pensioners vs the big end of town) 2016 Federal Election Results - House of Reps  Coalition 76 seats  ALP 69 seats  Greens 1 seat  Katter's Australia party 1 seat  NXT 1 seat  Independents 2 seats 2016 Federal Election Results - Senate  Coalition 30  ALP 26  Greens 9  One Nation 4  NXT 3  Liberal Democratic Party 1  Derryn Hinch Justice Party 1  Family First 1  Jacquie Lambie Network 1 "Man on a Wire"  Four Corners Monday 8 August 2016  One seat majority in the House of Reps and a new more diverse senate with 11 independents as such  Key problem - potential trouble for PM within own party - all need to toe line  The Abbott Factor - the democratisation of a party Overview  2010 election too close to call for weeks - then 17 days of uncertainty  Events and counting of votes in seats over next days  Gillard forms government with key independents  Both parties claim a mandate of sorts (ALP for being in government and two party preferred and coalition in terms of swing in number of votes for coalition)  Minority government and the role of independents  The ALP and the Greens (rise of the third force)  Greens control balance of power in Senate from July 2011  ALP, Greens, House of Reps and the Senate  A hung parliament, minority government and co-operative government  2013 federal election - 90 seats in House of Reps but a hung Senate for Abbott government (as of 1 July 2014)

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Assessing the Abbott government The 2016 election - 8 days of uncertainty before a result emerges....