PHIL105-FINAL Practice Exam 2 PDF

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Phil105 practice exam for students wants to improve....

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CRITICAL THINKING Phil 105 Summer Session 2020

YOUR TEACHER: DR. IAN BROOKS

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Part 1: Multiple Choice

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For questions 1.1-1.5, consider the following passage: 1.1 Julie did not study, and does not know the answers to any of the questions on this exam! Each of the first five questions on this exam have five options. What is the probability that, by luck, she will get at least one of the first five questions right? (at least means one or more) A. She is guaranteed to get at least one question right, for there are five questions which each have five answers. B. Between 85% and 100% C. Between 70% and 85% D. Between 55% and 70% E. Less than 55%

1.2 LIT100 and LIT101 are two courses at Brooks College. Students are not required to take either course, and are not allowed to take both courses at the same time. If 10% of students at the college take LIT100 and 15% take LIT101, what percentage of students at the college take LIT100 or LIT101? A. We cannot calculate this percentage because these courses are not mutually exclusive B. 15% C. 25% D. 1.5% E. 75%

1.3 Mandina works in human resources for a multinational company. She wanted to know if the company’s hiring process was fair to everyone who applied. She asked hundreds of people who had been hired if they thought the job application process was fair. Almost all of the people she asked said it was fair, so clearly most of the people who apply for a job at the company would say it was fair. A. This argument is not rationally persuasive. The sample is too large. B. This argument is not rationally persuasive due to survivor bias. C. This argument is rationally persuasive. The sample is representative D. This argument is not rationally persuasive because the population is too small E. This argument is not rationally persuasive because the population is biased.

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1.4 Choose the thing (A-D) you should NOT do when performing a randomized controlled trial, or choose E. A. Choose two groups from the population. B. Observe a correlation between the groups C. Conclude that if there is a correlation between the groups then there is a correlation in the population D. Conclude that if there is a correlation in the population that there is a cause E. A, B, C and D are all good things to do when performing a randomized controlled trial.

1.5 Marwan likes to play sports. When he thinks back on his life, the memories that come to mind most easily are moments when he achieved some great success. This makes Marwan believe that there is a high probability that he will achieve some great success when he plays his next game. Choose the term that best describes Marwan’s thinking. A. The availability heuristic B. Possibility freeze C. Biased evaluation D. Optional stopping E. Belief perseverance

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Part 2: Short Answer

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Answer each question by writing at least two sentences and at most four sentences. Do not write more than four sentences. 2.1) A building inspector has examined a very large number of homes. In the homes he has examined, he has observed that many buildings with holes in the floor also have holes in the walls. He concludes that damage to the walls does harm to floors. What is his mistake? (2 marks)

2.2) In a small town of 100 people, 99 of the residents have incomes of approximately $50 000 per year. One resident of the town is a famous investor who has an income of $100 000 000 per year. I told a friend that the average income in the town is $1 049 500 per year. Now she believes that most of the people of the town must live in huge houses and drive fancy cars. Using the concepts you learned in the course, explain in four sentences what I did wrong when I told my friend about the town. (2 marks)

2.3) Alice was not sure whether she was a very good painter. If you had asked her, she would have said that she might be a good painter but probably wasn’t. Then the curator of the National Gallery of Canada saw one of her paintings and insisted that it be put on display in the gallery. It would be extremely rare for the curator to mistakenly put the work of a bad painter on display, and probable that the curator would put the work of a good painter on display. After her painting is put on display, how much confidence should Alice have that she is a good painter and why should she have that confidence? (2 marks)

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Part 3: Argument Reconstruction and Evaluation

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I have never met Vincent, a small business owner, but I have reason to believe he is mismanaging his company. In a recent survey of 300 small businesses in Canada, most of the owners asked said that they did their own accounting even though they are not trained as accountants. Since anyone who is not an accountant who tries to do their own accounting will make serious errors, it follows that most Canadian small business owners will make serious errors when managing the finances of their company. That’s why I worry about Vincent! 3.1) Reconstruct. Write the argument(s) above in standard form. You are NOT required to explain your answer in full sentences.

3.2) Evaluate the strength of the argument. Explain your evaluation in detail. You are required to give an answer in full sentences (5-7 sentences).

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Part 4: Two Part Question

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Show any calculations you make, and explain your results in full sentences. You may get part marks for your rough work. To answer questions 4.1 and 4.2, refer to the following passage: Paragraph A Parneet is an airline mechanic. She knows that there is a one-in-ten thousand chance that the hydraulic system will leak, and a one-in-one-hundred-thousand chance that its safety sensor will fail. If both of those things happened, the plane would be in great danger due to malfunctioning controls. 4.1) Based only on the above information in Paragraph A, what is the probability that a plane would be in danger due to malfunctioning controls? (2 marks)

Paragraph B Parneet found a puddle on the ground near the airplane. That’s unusual, as the airline tries to keep the area around the plane clean. Under normal circumstances she might see a puddle like this on the ground, but not more than one day per month. Perhaps circumstances are not normal; she is certain that there would be a puddle on the ground if this plane’s hydraulic system had leaked. 4.2) Based on all of the information you have (paragraph A and paragraph B), what should Parneet think about whether this plane’s hydraulic system has leaked? Show your calculations, and then also explain your final answer in three sentences. (5 marks)

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Part 5: Marcel and the Dentist

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Good answers will be 2-4 sentences long. If you make calculations, show your calculations.

5.1) Marcel is trying to decide whether to go to the dentist. He hates going to the dentist – that will be a very bad day for him. However, if he gets a cavity (tooth damage) he will be uncomfortable for three days before he can get his tooth drilled. Worse, he could have a serious problem that will require dental surgery, requiring a whole week’s worth of painful days of treatment. If get does not go to the dentist, there is a 20% chance that he will get a cavity this year, and a 5% chance of a serious problem. If he does go to the dentist he is guaranteed to have one uncomfortable hour, but the probability of a cavity this year will be only 5% while the probability of a serious problem will be only 1%. What should Marcel do? (3 marks)

5.2) At first Marcel thought that going to the dentist would benefit him in the year to come, so he made an appointment. However, as the day of the appointment drew closer and closer his mind began to change. The day before his appointment was scheduled he cancelled the appointment! When asked why, he said that he did not care very much about the year to come, and cared much more about how uncomfortable his short visit to the dentist would be. Using the language of this course, describe his thought process and advise him on how to improve his decision making. (2 marks)

5.3) Eventually, you persuaded Marcel to follow the advice you gave him in 2.1. However, Marcel then got a serious tooth problem. He is very angry at you for giving him bad advice. It’s certainly true that your advice did not produce a happy result for him. Is he right to be angry with you? (1 mark)

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