SCY1117 Intelligence Foundations Exam Notes PDF

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SCY1117 End of Year Exam Notes - As at Semester 1, 2017...

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SCY1117: INTELLIGENCE FOUNDATIONS EXAM NOTES DEFINITION OF INTELLIGENCE INTELLIGENCE 

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Refers to a range of activities, which are conducted in secret and aimed at maintain or enhancing relative security by providing forewarning of threats or potential threats in a manner that allows for the timely implementation of a preventative policy of strategy and where desirable covert activities o E.g. planning and information collection, analysis and dissemination Intelligence is a: o Product o Result of integration and processing information o Value adds o Aids decision making Intelligence is made up of 3 parts: o Process o Product o Agency

INTELLIGENCE AS A PROCESS    

The process by which specific types of information important to national security are requested, collected, analysed and provided to policymakers The products of that process The safeguarding of these processes and this information by counterintelligence activities The carrying out of operations as requested by lawful authorities

INTELLIGENCE CYCLE 1. Planning and Direction 2. Collection 3. Processing 4. Analysis and Production 5. Dissemiantion

INTELLIGENCE AS A PRODUCT   

The product resulting from the processing of information concerning foreign nations, hostile or potentially hostile forces, areas of actual or potential operations Term is also applied to the activity which results in the product and to the organisations engage in such activity Products o Written Reports  Long form  Short form o Oral briefings  Formal  Informal o Any other form as required by the end user

INTELLIGENCE AS AN AGENCY  

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Intelligence is secret, state activity to understand or influence foreign entities Examples: o ASIS o ASIO o ASD o ONA o AGO o DIO What do they do? o Counter intelligence o Counter terrorism o Economic intelligence o Crime and counter narcotics o Political analysts o Military intelligence

HISTORY AND NATURE OF INTELLIGENCE 

The oldest profession

INTELLIGENCE TIMELINE 

Ancient o The biblical period  Joshua and Caleb  Rahab  King David and Absalom o Sun Tzu

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o Alexander the Great o Ancient Rome Middle Ages through 19th Century o Victorian era o Navigation and exploration th 20 Century o WW1 and WW2 o Cold War o Communication and technology st 21 Century o Communication and technology o Modern encryption o Social media

EARLY CONCEPTS  Routes and localities  Terrain  Force composition  Resources  Goods  Counter-intelligence EVOLUTION OF INTELLIGENCE  Communication  Transport  Space  Math  Computers  Tactics & Strategy  Weapons systems ANALYSIS  Soothsayers and religious advisers  Leaders as analysts  Advisors as analysts  Analysts as specialists EVENTS THAT CHANGED INTELLIGENCE  9/11  Pearl Harbour  Cold War  Engima  Hilton Hotel (Australia) THE FUTURE OF INTELLIGENCE  Social media  Uniquitous encryption  Artificial intelligence v Role of the analysts  Virtual reality  Technology  Governance and distrust  Privacy  Cash and currency  Law  5G  Robotics  Space  Technological divides

OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE (OSINT)  

All publicly available information regardless of form Examples: o Electronic and print media o Social networking sites o Radio o Television o Databases o Journals o Anything that you can read, hear or view

WHAT IS IT USED FOR?

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Target development Location finding Tracking/Geo tagging Biographic data Manipulation Social network and profile development Time saving

SOCMINT    

Exploiting social media for intelligence purposes Monitor Response Synthesise

ADVANTAGES     

Accessibility Volume Multiple sources Legality Access to closed societies

ISSUES & CHALLENGES      

Ethics of collection Volume Privacy Protection and storage Analyst/decision maker relationship Reliability

HUMINT, SIGINT AND IMINT METHODS OF COLLECTION          

OSINT – Open Source Intelligence HUMINT – Human Intelligence SIGINT – Signals Intelligence IMINT – Imagery Intelligence PROTINT – Personal information intelligence TECHINT – Technical intelligence MASINT – Measurement and signatures intelligence COMINT – Communications intelligence TELINT – Telemetry intellifence ELINT – Electromagnetic intelligence

HUMINT (Human Intelligence) 

Intelligence collected and provided by human sources

LIMITATIONS  Amateur HUMINT issues  Costly  Deception i.e. people lie  Lead times  Risk  Ethics

SIGINT (Signals Intelligence)  LIMITATIONS  Very expensive  Often seen as infallible  People lie to each other too

GEOINT/IMINT (Geospatial/Image Intelligence)   

Intelligence about target activity on earth Analysis of geographic/physical features Derived from imagery and geospatial information

LIMITATIONS  Very expensive  Deception  Context dependent

ISSUES OF COLLECTION        

Deception Single source dependency Source bias Collector bias Validation Authorisation Evaluation Sensitive source management

THE INTELLIGENCE DOMAIN THE AUSTRALIAN INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY 

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AIC Agencies o ASIS – Australian Secret Intelligence Service o ASIO – Australian Security Intelligence Organisation o ASD – Australian Signals Directorate o AGO – Australian Geospatial-Intelligence Organisation o DIO – Defence Intelligence Organisation o ONA – Office of National Assessments Overall in Australia o 80 agencies and functions identified o 10 thematic areas identified

THEMATIC AREAS         

Oversight Defence Border Control Regulation and compliance – Federal Regulation and compliance – State Education and research Australian intelligence community Law enforcement Anti-corruption

IMPLICATIONS FOR ANALYSIS    

Analyst recruitment and professionalization Analyst development and education Communities, collaboration and cooperation The invisible analyst and intelligence capabilities

ANALYSTS AND OFFICERS THE INTELLIGENCE OFFICER       

‘HUMINTers’ Collectors Work with people Operate domestically Formal HUMINT – ASIS, AGIO, ADF, CIA, MI6 Informal HUMINT They are ‘spies’ but are not James Bond o BUT they do know how to deal with people, develop relationships, protect themselves and think quickly

QUALITIES OF AN INTELLIGENCE OFFICER  Perceptive about people  Teamwork and Collaboration – Works well with others under difficult conditions  Discerns between fact and fiction o Not doing this = Poor intelligence = Intelligence failure  Distinguishes between essentials and non-essentials  Inquisitive – That’s what makes them ‘spies’  Ingenuity o Ways of getting information out of people o Manipulation/Subtle deception/’Social engineering’  Pays attention to detail  Expresses ides clearly, briefly and interestingly  Knows when to keep mouth shut o Know when/when not to speak, don’t compromise information

INTELLIGENCE ANALYST 

Role = To develop meaningful and useable products based on a range of sources

QUALITIES OF AN INTELLIGENCE ANALYST  Different to that of an IO – but can transition to IO  Reasoning o What’s accurate? What source is most right? What is fact/opinion?  Accuracy o Accuracy in facts, not assessment – can’t predict the future  Intellectually honest o Be informed o Speak the trust o Frank and fearless advice  Open-minded o Always questioning oneself o How do other cultures/people think? – Think like the opposition/enemy/another person o Open self up to different realities – Being open-minded and expanding the mind o Not always right  Sceptical o Not always dealing with the good guys o Behaviour change o Sceptical of information, sceptical of target behaviour o Sceptical and open-minded – but make a decision  Detachment o Objective o Immersed – with a degree of detachment o Detached from your opinion  Patient, diligent and perseverant o Be patient, because it takes time  Imaginative o 9/11 – Lack of creativity o Understand a target – what might they do? o Be creative in finding and synthesising information – Data is disparate ANALYTIC DOMAINS  Where Analysts can work?  Strategic  Law enforcement  Domestic  Corporate  HUMINT  Tactical  National security  International  Military  SIGINT FACTORS INFLUENCING ANALYSTS  A perception at times, especially in times of intelligence failure, that analysts are ‘useless/not doing their job’ – This is NOT accurate  BUT there are factors that do influence analysts and analysis: o Proximity to collectors/customers  Too close  Too far o Agency structure  Thematic structure  Country  Hierarchical  Co-location  Relationship with other agencies o Experience and knowledge  What about social perceptions? o Social Status o Education o Gender THE “OUTSTANDING” ANALYST  They must: o Understand the question o Sufficient collection to make a quality assessment o Communicates  What don’t they do? o Be 100% right all of the time o Be the most correct

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o Use the biggest words o Collect the most data o Talk the most The ‘Bad’ Analyst o Unteachable o Thinks all information is important o Does not address the question o ‘Knows everything’

LAW ENFORCEMENT INTELLIGENCE INTELLIGENCE DOMAINS 

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Military Intelligence o Criminal o Staff (security) vetting Law Enforcement o Criminal v National security  Traditionally very different worlds  Convergence in modern times – Where criminality used to fund terror operations Strategic/Operational/Tactical o National references  ACC and NCA o National taskforces  OMCGs  Asian and Italian organised crime  Currently Meth and Child sex offenders o Local taskforces  State based  Homicide, missing person/child etc o Single agency major investigations o Routine tactical intelligence

LAW ENFORCEMENT (POLICE) VARIETY             

Most attractive thing about working in law enforcement (especially state based agency) is variety Homicide Sex offences Cyber crime National security Organised crime Domestic violence Covert support Gang crime Cold case Traffic Money laundering/proceeds Forensic

LAW ENFORCEMENT CULTURE  

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Most unattractive aspect of law enforcement Challenges o Public service agency v Police agency o Sub-cultures – Sworn, unsworn, detective, GDs  Uniform v Detectives  Sworn v Unsworn  Analyst v Operational Police o Credibility/Acceptance/Reputation o Reactive/Proactive/Intelligence led Resource/Capacity challenges o Work volume o Training o Equipment Experiences (job satisfaction) o Arrest and seizure o Task force o Court – witness

REACTIVE V PROACTIVE  Nature of Policing o Maintaining law and order o Reactive v Proactive  Proactive is costly in both time resources and money o Breadth of responsibility  Responsibility to enforce the law

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Part of that is presence – which serves as a deterrent to offenders  This causes scope to be reactive rather than proactive BoR includes:  Child welfare  Community welfare  Apprehension of offenders  Dispersing of crowds/gatherings  Crowd control – Riot control  Simple and complex investigations  Public scrutiny and internal/external oversight

Capacity  Capacity and scope reduces ability to be proactive Deterrent o Presence serves as a deterrent o

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LAW ENFORCEMENT INTELLIGENCE 

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Incident (consequence) management o Emergency management  Command centre (forward intel)  Bushfires, floods, explosions etc – either deliberate or accidental o Investigations  Such emergency’s result in investigations or consequence management  Intelligence role is to advise the decision makers, work with investigators and look to further threats Event management (crowd control) o Response/Management  command centre (forward intel)  Crown temperature/tension, demographics  Criminality – drugs, robbery, stealing, assault, public disorder o Prevention (deterrent)  Intelligence – Threat assessment and collection  Comparative analysis – Past or similar events Investigations/Incidents/Events o Objectives:  Manage/Contain/Control  Identify and apprehend offender/s  Identify and assist victims  Identify witnesses  Determine what happened  Prefer charges (evidence) Where does the analyst fit in? o Investigations:  Evidence v Information v Intelligence  Generate avenues of inquiry  Collection  Link and association analysis  Patterns of offending/behaviour  Analysis and assessment Difficulties/Limitations o Lack of understanding analysts ‘true’ purpose  Proactive, predictive, forecast in the absence of all the information/facts  Whereas, Law enforcement is reactive and supportive to direction of investigations o ‘Traditional’ or proactive:  Indicators, behaviour, signs, active collection o Police service – A brief of evidence for prosecution  Burden of proof and level of verification o Intelligence/Information  Rumour, innuendo, fact, fiction, speculation, disinformation What are the limitations/advantages for an analyst (career)? o Limited proactive – Nature of environment  Investigative analysis skills enhanced o Law enforcement – Intelligence does not always sit at the command table  Supporting mechanism/function – generally as an afterthought  No voting rights in terms of decisions o Evidence v Information – How does this impact the analyst?  Analysts operate in the grey area, police are black and white/factual  Become adept at arguing/presenting your theory to gain support and action from the investigating officer o Dynamic environment (3 day rule)  What’s happening yesterday, what’s happening today, what’s going to happen tomorrow  Scope/charter ensures nothing stays the same for very long  Police not as agile as the criminal which may explain limited strategic planning and commitment o Tactical environment – Strategic aspect (skills)  Strategic analysis is limited and the resource commitment is small in comparison to the tactical and operational environments

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Strong analytical (tactical / operational) Skills and mindset Strategic mindset will likely suffer unless you are able to gain a position in that area.

INTELLIGENCE PRODUCTS   

Intelligence Products = ‘Assessments’ Intelligence has no value until it is reported or disseminated Intelligence reporting differs at three levels: o Tactical o Strategic o Operational

REPORTING OPTIONS     

Written Reports Graphic Briefings Video clips SMS

REPORT ELEMENTS 

Fundamental elements of all reports are: o Relates to the need of the end user o Conveys clearly critical information required o Identify parameters in which intelligence is actionable o Specified additional intelligence requirements if needed o Provides recommendation or assessment o Fact and assumption clearly identified along with degrees of certainty/uncertainty

CHARACTERISTICS OF INTELLIGENCE PRODUCTS      

Actionable Accurate Objective Relevant Timely Comprehensive

INTELLIGENCE PRODUCTS – THE MECHANICS       

Clearly written/delivered Concise Precise Plain English Grammatically correct Absence of errors Accords to accepted convention

RECOMMENDATIONS    

Achievable Realistic Measurable Specific

INTELLIGENCE AND THE LAW 

Intelligence is bound by the law

INTELLIGENCE SERVICES ACT  

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Foreign collection agencies Function: o Obtain o Communicate o Assist the ADF o Cooperate and provide (products and assistance) Cooperation Ministerial authorisation Other – dissemination and dealing with information

ASIO ACT 

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Functions and Powers: o Obtain, correlate and evaluate o Communicate o Cooperate Special Powers

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o Access, devices, inspection, warrants Special Powers relating to Terrorism: o Questioning, detention, treatment, use of force o Subdivision E – Other provisions = 33 subdivisions

CRIMES ACT 1914 

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Procedural o Search and seizure o Powers of arrest, interrogation, questioning o Powers of detention Of interest (unrelated to intelligence) (offences and penalties in the Crimes Act) o Treachery – Life imprisonment o Inciting mutiny – Life imprisonment o Assisting escape of prisoners of war – Life imprisonment

IGIS AND PJCIS  

IGIS – Inspector General of Intelligence and Security PJCIS – Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security

ETHICS IN INTELLIGENCE 

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United Nations Universal Declaration on Human Rights (1948) o 30 articles relating to human rights – Examples:  No torture/cruel/inhumane treatment  No arbitrary arrest/detention/exile  Privacy  Right to freedom of opinion/expression Basic rights: o Security o Privacy

ETHICAL ISSUES  Collection  Privacy  Transparency  Secrecy  ‘Friends’  ‘Legitimate targets’  Detention  Espionage  Manipulation  Blackmail  HUMINT

INTELLIGENCE FAILURE 

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‘Intelligence’ failures: o Arab spring o Kim Jong II’s death o Pearl harbour o 9.11 o Tet offensive, Vietman, 1968 o Iranian revolution, 1979 o Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, 1979 o Collapse of the Soviet Union o Iraq Intelligence failure? Policy failure? Operational failure?

INDIVIDUAL FAILURES      

Intellect Training Skills Depth of knowledge Bias Failure to identify executive intent

ORGANISATIONAL FAILURES    

Bureaucracy Hierarchy Lethargy Failure to understand capability and limitation

PROCESS/METHOD FAILURES   

Inappropriate use Dependence on past success GIGO

IMAGINATION FAILURE   

Imagination of possibility Inability to accept variation from the norm Rational Actor paradigm

DECISION/ACTION FAILURE     

Competing priorities Bias Arrogance Mindset Lack of trust

COMMUNICATION FAILURE    

Failure to articulate requirement Failure to question Failure to listen Failure to sell

EVALUATION FAILURE    

Distance from source Knowledge of source Single source Anomalous information

FAILURE AS AN EXPECTED OUTCOME 

Difficult problems o Some problems are so complex that you have to be highly intelligence and well informed just to be undecided about them

INTELLIGENCE SCHOOL OF HARD KNOCKS    

Allegations of intelligence failure are inevitable Why? – In intelligence, failures are inevitable Intelligence organisations learn (and suffer) from allegations and failures The ratio of success to failure can be improved...