Syllabus STA 527 UB F 2017 PDF

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Dr. Dietrich W. Kuhlmann [email protected] Kimball Tower 809 Syllabus STA 527 Probability and Statistics Fall 2017

COURSE DESCRIPTION This course covers topics in descriptive statistics, probability, inference, and experimental design, all of which are put together to draw conclusions from uncertainty through analysis of experimental data. Although a general statistical methods course, the material (through examples) is geared towards sciences majors, especially those in the health sciences. This course looks into the underlying reasoning behind the techniques rather than just pure application.

Topics Part 1: Probability  Data – mean, standard deviation, proportions, relative risk, histogram, boxplot  Sets – sample space, unions, intersections, complements (reviewed on your own)  Probability – rules, equally likely outcomes, relative frequency, relative risk, odds ratio and Mantel - Haenzel, conditional probability, independence, reliability of parallel components  Random Variables – probability mass function, Cumulative Distribution Function, expected value  Discrete Random Variables – Binomial, Poisson  Continuous Random Variables – exponential, standard normal, other normal distributions Topics Part 2: Statistics   

The distribution of the sample mean X (z and t) and the sample standard deviation (chi-square) Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests – population mean, population proportion, population standard deviation, difference between two means, difference between two proportions, paired ttest, comparing two variances, power and sample size determination, the p-value (Advanced Topics performed on Minitab) Analysis of 2x2 Tables, Chi-square tests: independence and goodness of fit, Time Trends, Kaplan-Meier estimates, Analysis of Variance (one-way, twoway and with interaction), Regression (linear and quadratic) and advanced topics in regression, Logistic Regression

Students should expect to learn to use formula sheets, distribution charts and to use proper notation throughout the section on statistics. Additionally, students will learn to perform data analysis using current technology. This includes a calculator for simple data summary, Excel spreadsheets (prepared in advance by me) to determine probabilities and the statistical package Minitab. Students should also expect to interpret the results from their statistical analysis, draw conclusions and make decisions based on their analysis.

Course Prerequisites: 1. Calculator Skills – Students should know how to plug in basic calculations on their calculator. Statistical calculations on the calculator will be covered in the course material. 2. Algebra – Students should be able to solve very basic algebraic equations for a given variable. 3. Graphing – Students need to fully understand number lines and a coordinate system. 4. Symbols – Students need to fully understand the basic mathematical relationship symbols , ≤, and ≥. Students should be familiar with unions and intersections.

Course Learning Outcome

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Delivered through the Following Instructional Method(s): Analyze data and apply empirical or Reading assignments (text theoretical methods to guide and internet), lecture and decision-making. review of homework problems Interpret mathematical models, Reading assignments (text formulas, graphs, and tables, and and internet), lecture and draw inferences from them. review of homework problems Choose appropriate models for a Reading assignments (text given problem, using information and internet), lecture and from observed or deduced data and review of homework knowledge of the system being problems studied. Employ quantitative methods, Reading assignments (text mathematical models and/or and internet), lecture and review of homework statistics to develop well-reasoned arguments to identify and solve real problems world problems beyond the level of basic algebra, while also being able to recognize the limitations of mathematics and statistics. Recognize common mistakes in Reading assignments (text empirical and deductive reasoning, and internet), lecture and review of homework and mathematical and quantitative problems problem solving. Perform data analysis on the Reading and recitation statistical package Minitab Express inferences and conclusions Implementation and in writing. discussion in lecture

Student Achievement Assessed with the Following Method(s)/Assignments: Homework assignments, quizzes and exams

Homework assignments, quizzes and exams

Homework assignments, quizzes and exams

Homework assignments, quizzes and exams

Homework assignments, quizzes and exams

Homework assignments, quizzes and exams Homework assignments and exams

For many topics, more specific learning goals and outcomes will be provided. Also, there will be several “Self-Evaluation” assignments provided. Students should use these self-evaluations to determine if they have indeed accomplished learning the desired goals to their satisfaction. Course Learning Objectives: The main goals of the course are: Understand probability, Perform simple statistical analysis, and gain enough statistical knowledge to read and understand a research level paper. Understand probability: The student will understand what probability means. The student will understand what a random variable is and what a distribution is. The student will understand what the mean and standard deviation of random variables are. The student will be able to understand the difference between a random variables and data. The student will understand what makes a distribution useful and what distributions are useful. The student will be able to calculate probabilities using a set of charts (cumulative distribution). The student will be able to read a word problem and determine the implied probability question. The student will be able to use the idea of an expected value to make important decisions.

Perform simple data/statistical analysis: The student will be able to compute and interpret appropriate summary statistics. The student will understand variation is; how to measure it and what are the causes it and why it is bad. The student will be able to gain understanding of a population or data set using graphical analysis. The student will be able to graph data on the computer. The student will be able to understand the difference between a sample and population. The student will be able to gain understanding of how probability governs statistical analysis. The student will be able to perform confidence interval calculations and perform hypothesis tests. The student will be able to interpret the results of those calculations. The student will learn to calculate the power of a test. The student will learn to determine the sample size needed for certain types of confidence intervals. The student will learn the different types of errors that can occur in data analysis.

Gain enough statistical knowledge to read a research paper: Many professional careers, many undergraduate majors, and virtually any advanced educational degree will require the reading of research papers. Many of these papers will contain statistical analysis that supports the claims of the researcher. Therefore, it is necessary that: The student will understand what is learned when we reject or fail to reject a hypothesis. The student will understand what the power of a test is. The student will understand what sample size determination is. The student will understand the importance of the p-value. Assessment of Learning Goals: All learning goals will be assessed on homework, quizzes and exams. Attendance: Your presence is expected at each lecture. There are blank spaces in the notes that will be filled in during class. (Points for missed classes is discussed later.) If you miss class, it is YOUR responsibility to determine what you missed and any announcements that were made. Be sure you have the phone number or e-mail address of somebody in the class. Recitation: Your grade in recitation will be the same grade as the lecture grade, which is based on points earned as described below. Recitation is a time where students can ask questions on assigned homework. I will go over some homework problems during the lecture, but for more extensive help you will need to attend recitation. We will perform several Minitab labs during recitation. These labs build the skillsets needed to perform later homework assignments. Grading: There will be two exams during the semester and a semi-comprehensive (HW 16 and beyond) final exam given during exam week. Final Exam: Friday Dec. 15, 2017; 11:45 – 2:45: in DFN 02. Everybody must take the final exam, so don’t make vacation plans during exam week or make plans to go home early. Test 1: Wed. Oct. 11 2017

Covers HW 1 through HW 13

If you miss a test, the make-up will be given the following Monday at 7:00 AM in Kimball Tower. There is no make-up after that. You could lose up to 3 points for taking the test late. The test will be slightly more difficult than the original test.

Quizzes will usually be announced the class before the quiz or possibly two classes before. An e-mail reminder is often sent. Clearly you will need to check for e-mails often. Missed quizzes cannot be made up. Since one quiz is dropped, missing a single quiz will not hurt your grade. The quizzes should take less than 5 minutes.

Homework: The regular homework assignments are due the class after the material is covered. Each homework assignment is labeled HW1, HW2, etc. When we have covered enough material to do the next assignment, it will say in the book “You can now do HW1”, or whatever assignment is next. I will post solutions to several HW assignments on UB Learns. If you wish to check answers to the rest, attend recitation. Most graded HW assignments will also be sent through UBlearns or will be done on Top Hat. Assignments that are to be turned in must be turned in during class on time and cannot be emailed. Your grade will be determined by points earned on the items below. Graded Homework Assignments: 80 points available (*) Quizzes: 8 - 10 quizzes @ 5 points each (drop 1) (Small) Projects – 20 points for 427 and 40 points for 527 In Class Exams: 100 points Final Exam: 150 points (Below 50% on Exam = F in course)

(70 total points) (≈ 40 total points) (20 or 40 points) (100 total points) (150 total points)

(*) There will be 80 points worth of graded homework throughout the semester. Your homework grade will be a number between 0 and 70, depending on how many graded homework points you got correct. If you get 60 out of 80, your grade will be 60 out of 70. If you get 74 out of 80 your grade will be 70 out of 70. Homework is NOT accepted late. Graded homework is a combination of assignments given online that are turned in. I reserve the right to look at any student’s book at any time. You can lose points off your homework grade if you have missing assignments from your book. This is meant to keep you from not doing homework, which makes passing this course difficult. If less than 80 homework points are given, students will receive full points for the missing points. For instance, if I assign only 75 points in graded homework, students will get 5 out of 5 for the missing points. Similarly, if less than 8 quizzes are given students will receive 5 out of 5 for each quiz not given. Attendance: Attendance is expected each lecture. If you miss one lecture there, is no charge. The second one is a loss of 1 point. Each lecture after that: 2 points. Missing lecture is usually detectable on quiz and test days, HW collection days, or test (quiz) return days. Each day that you have not collected your exam (only returned in lecture) – you are marked absent. It is very easy to do well in this course. For each type of problem, I will work one in class. Then, usually you will work one and we will go over it. The homework is just like the problems we did in class. The quizzes are just like the homework. The exams are just like the quizzes and homework. For all probability distributions, charts will be given. This means you do not have to memorize the formulas. When we get to statistics, you will be provided with a formula sheet for the quizzes and exams. Again, you are allowed to focus on what to do and not formulas. Grading Scale (%): Ties (without rounding) get the higher grade. (Based on the 460 or 485 points outlined above) 94 – 100 91 – 94 88 – 91 84 – 88 81 – 84 78 – 81

A AB+ B BC+

71 – 78 68 – 71 60 – 68 55 – 60 Below 55

C CD+ D F

The average for a C and C- has been lowered to help students get the minimum grade required for their major. There is no leeway for these grades. Do not bother sending me an e-mail at the end of the semester telling me that you need a C to stay in school because it won’t help.

Extra Credit: Some extra credit WILL be offered during the semester. Extra credit turned in late or emailed will not be graded – no exceptions! I reserve the right to make some extra credit assignments unavailable to students that have not picked up their exams. All extra credit assignments are given a point value that allows some partial credit. These point values are all cut in half at the end of the semester. (this makes partial credit easier). This will yield a higher extra credit grade for those that do not get perfect on an assignment. So if you had 22 points of extra credit, I would add 11 points to your total semester points. If your final exam counts for 100 points, then your extra credit will be multiplied by .75. Top Hat: Top Hat will be used in this course. It is used for attendance, classroom participation, some graded homework assignments and possibly for some quizzes. Top Hat can be used on a smart phone or a computer as long as you have internet access. It can also be used on a normal cell phone via texting. You need to sign up for Top Hat before the start of week 2. This will be discussed in class week 1 and you will get email reminders and information. Top Hat is required for this course. Incomplete: A grade of incomplete is offered to students in accordance with UB policy. If you need a grade of incomplete, you will need to take appropriate action. I reserve the right to deny you the opportunity to get an incomplete. This is used for students that constantly blow off class. My Office Hours: TR 2:00-3:00 AM in Math Building room 106, MW 9:00 – 10:00 Kimball Tower 809 The tutoring lab is also available for students in this course. The lab is located in Kimball 813 and is open from 9:00 am until 5:00 pm – Monday through Friday. Identification: On the first day of class you will be given a class number. This number can also be found on UBlearns under “Course Information”. This class number is how you will be identified for grading and e-mail correspondence. You must put this number on all assignments, quizzes, tests and e-mails. Your class number will be written as follows: Your recitation section, then a dash and then a two-digit number. Any email sent without your class number in the subject line will be deleted before I even read it. Example: M-31. Assignments and quizzes without the proper class number will not be recorded (you get a zero).

ACADEMIC INTEGRITY Academic integrity is a fundamental university value. Through the honest completion of academic work, students sustain the integrity of the university while facilitating the university's imperative for the transmission of knowledge and culture based upon the generation of new and innovative ideas.  Reference to the university Undergraduate* (http://undergradcatalog.buffalo.edu/policies/course/integrity.shtml) or Graduate** (http://grad.buffalo.edu/Academics/Policies-Procedures/Academic-Integrity.html) Academic Integrity policy and any additional instructor requirements and comments regarding academic dishonesty. Students caught cheating on exams will be penalized based upon the severity of the infraction, as determined by me. You may lose a letter grade on the exam or in the course. If the infraction is severe enough, you will get an F in the course and the dean will be notified.

CLASSROOM DECORUM Please understand that students attend lecture to learn. When you talk during lecture, you interfere with their ability to hear and learn. Please do not chat with other students during lecture as it is disruptive to other students nearby and to me. It is a large lecture room and if many students whisper – it gets very loud in there and lecture will temporarily pause.

Accessibility Resources: If you have any disability which requires reasonable accommodations to enable you to participate in this course, please contact the Office of Accessibility Resources, 25 Capen Hall, 6452608, and also contact the instructor of this course during the first week of class. Accessibility Resources will provide you with information and review appropriate arrangements for reasonable accommodations. Policy on Incomplete Grades for the Course: Incomplete grades will be given only if there are extenuating circumstances (i.e. severe illness) that preclude the student from completing the course. The student must have satisfactorily completed all course work and successfully passed all exams (C or better) up until the time an incomplete is requested. University Policy on Incomplete Grades: A grade of incomplete (I) indicate that additional coursework is required to fill the requirements of a given course. Students may only be given an I grade if they have a passing average in coursework that has been completed and have well-defined parameters to complete the course requirements that could result in a grade better than the default grade. An I grade may not be assigned to a student who did not attend the course. Prior to the end of the semester, students must initiate the request for an I grade and receive the instructor's approval. Assignment of an I grade is at the discretion of the instructor. The instructor must specify a default letter at the time the “I” grade is submitted. A default grade is the letter grade the student will receive if no additional coursework is completed and/or a grade change form is not filed by the instructor. “I” grades must be completed within 12 months. Individual instructors may set shorter time limits for removing an incomplete than the 12-month time limit. Upon assigning an “I” grade, the instructor shall provide the student specification, in writing or by electronic mail, of the requirements to be fulfilled, and shall file a copy with the appropriate departmental office. Students must not re-register for courses for which they have received an I grade. Applicable dates regarding the 12-month provision are given below. Course taken in (semester): Will default in 12 months on: Fall December 31 Spring May 31 Summer August 31 The “I” (Incomplete) grade must be changed to a grade before the degree conferral date if the student plans to graduate in that semester. At any time prior to the default date, students may elect to change the I grade to the default grade using the Grade Retrieval Form. A default grade can be A-, B+, B-, C+, C-, D+, D, or F. (If a student selected an S/U grading option, it will replace the default letter grade when the grade defaults.)

Email Rules: Emails must come from a buffalo.edu address. Emails must contain your class number in the subject line. Emails must include your name. Any email without this will not get a response. Don’t send me an email that you will miss or did miss class. Do not send emails asking what you missed on a day that you did not attend class. You are expected to email another student for this information. I will work hard to ensure you a good chance at a good grade in this class. I hope you will work hard also. Test Rules: You need to bring your UB id or driver’s license to the exam. Also your calculator would be handy. Morning students must take the exam in the morning. Texting: Texting is not allowed in class. Texting: Mi...