The Sigmoid Curve PDF

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Notes of the Sigmoid curve ...

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The Sigmoid Curve       

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Easy to explain things looking backward and we might think that we can predict them forward The words keep changing and the ways which got you to success are not going to keep you there Secret to constant growth is to start a new sigmoid curve before the first one peters out Point A right time to start because we have the time, resources, energy The place of this point seems obvious but it is not because at point A all the messages coming through to the individual or the institution are that everything is fine and why change when everything is going great Change comes when we face B- when we are looking at a disaster However, now it will require more effort to drag the organization up to where you should be on the second curve. To make it worst current leadership discredited because it is believe that they led the organization down- hill. Furthermore, resources and energies are low. Organization start the change process when they are at point B, by bringing new people at the top- because only new people have the credibility and the vision to lift the place back to the second curve The second curve can be = a new product, a new way of operating- imply a new different way of doing things. People will also be different in the second curve. It is not likely that those who will lead the second curve are the ones that led the first one. Why? - difficult to abandon the first curve while it is doing so well and the second reason is that their responsibility is to keep the first curve going long enough to support early stages of the second curve For a time, new ideas and new people have to co-exist with the old while the second curve is established Shaded area- period of confusion. Competition of ideas/ people Leader of the first curve start to worry about their own future when their curves will die. Will they be able to join the second curve, otherwise they have to leave – unrealistic and unlikely to happen- what idiot will leave their job in this conditions Prolong the old ways infinitely- impossible Example of the chairman that told its organization that they should embrace change at point A. He failed to get his change implemented . In point B, this person is removed. He failed as a leader , not because he was wrong in seeing the need for a second curve but because he did not managed to share his understanding We worry that the first curve will go down before we find the new one. We have to find the second curve before it is too late, meanwhile we want to keep the second curve going.

The Discipline of the Second Curve Question: How do we know where we are on the first curve       

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Make you own and assessment of your position or the organization’s position Companies are further along the curve than they would previously admitted Progress on assumption- no exact science The discipline of second curve requires that you always assume that you are near the peak of the first curve at point A and should therefore start preparing for the second Organization should assume that their previous strategy will need to be replace within 2-3 years and that that their product life cycle are shorter than they were If those assumptions turn out to be wrong= noting has been lost, only the exploratory phase of the second curve has been done, no major commitment taken The discipline of the second curve effects: keeps sceptical, curious and inventive attitudes. It will follow the 4 stage cycle of discovery (questions start it off, questions raise ideas/possibilities, the best of these must be test out, results are reviewed). First 2 stages- cost nothing except time and imagination. Those stages can start from the greenfield hypothesis: “If we did not exist would we re-invent ourselves and if so, what we would be like?” FIRST CURVE ALWAYS DIFFERENT- you don’t want to build on the first curve One essential thing to move on is to let go of the past You can always thing move in different sectors. Example gave from the French family that was in textile and now grocery

Curvilinear Logic      

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Moving on requires the belief that the world and everything is a sigmoid curve- that everything has its up and down and that nothing last forever Curvilinear logic= starting life over again, which is harder when you get older What got you successful does not mean that it will get you again The world belongs to the discontented = Coca cola Not knowing the rules= good, complacency is the enemy of curiosity Scenario Planning at the Shell group -executives get together to think about possible future outcomes for the oil business and the countries in which the business operated. Help them embrace the second curve who was ready during the Fall of the Soviet Union and the Oil crisis in 1970 Past not the best guide to the future Organization must be careful to not abandon the second curve to early, the second curve needs the resources and the time that only the first curve can provide

Fertilizing the Second Curve   

Second-curve thinking will come more naturally to the second generation The look at the future should therefore include some thoughts and recommendation on how the organization should adapt to the changes they might foresee for their industry and the world around them...