1. Social Mobility in Hong Kong PDF
| Title | 1. Social Mobility in Hong Kong |
|---|---|
| Course | Contemporary Hong Kong: Government & Politics |
| Institution | 香港科技大學 |
| Pages | 12 |
| File Size | 724.6 KB |
| File Type | |
| Total Downloads | 139 |
| Total Views | 435 |
Summary
ResearchBriefIssue No. 22014 –Social mobility in Hong Kong**January 2015 ** Social mobility is a multi‐dimensional concept, but it is most often quantitatively measured in terms of changes in earnings, education and occupation. In Hong Kong, recent statistics and research studies ha...
Description
Research Brief
SocialmobilityinHongKong
January2015 Socialmobilityisamulti‐dimensionalconcept,but itismostoftenquantitatively Issue No. 2 measured in terms of changes in earnings, education and occupation. In Hong Kong, recent statistics and research studies have revealed limited 2014–2015 opportunities for upward earnings, educational and occupational mobility. There is also a statistically significant correlation between the socio‐economic status of parents and their children, suggesting low inter‐generational social mobility. At present, a lack of new growth engines has restrained earnings growth and social mobility. There have been calls for Hong Kong to adopt an effective strategy to diversify and restructure its economy, thereby creating more higher‐paid and higher‐skilled jobs to enhance earnings and occupational mobility. Research Office Thesubjectofsocialmobility wasrecentlydiscussedattheCouncilmeetingsof Legislative Council Secretariat 17December2014and7January2015. 1. Introduction 1.1 Formanyyears,HongKonghasbeenviewedasacityofopportunitieswith ample opportunities for people to move up the social ladder through their own efforts. Socialmobilityisessentialtothecreationof socialharmonybybuildinga more open and fairer society where every individual is free to succeed.1 Yet a recent concern is perceived reduced social mobility in Hong Kong, which has become the subject of a recent motion debate in the Legislative Council and an issueofdiscussioninthecommunity. 1.2 Socialmobilityreferstothemovementofanindividualwithinasocialclass (horizontalmobility)2 or betweensocial classes (vertical mobility). Themovement canbeinanupwardordownwarddirection. Socialmobilityisamulti‐dimensional concept, but it is most often quantitatively measured in terms of changes in earnings, education and occupation. 3 It can also be intra‐generational or inter‐generational. Intra‐generational mobility occurs when a person changes social status within his or her lifetime, while inter‐generational mobility happens when an individual moves up or down the social ladder compared with his or her parents. 1
2
3
SeeXue(2013),UKDepartmentforBusiness,Innovation&Skills(2013),andBrown(2013). Horizontalmobilitymayoccurwhen someonechangesbetweentwoequallyprestigiousoccupationsandkeeps hisorhersocialstatusunchanged. See Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (2010) and UK Department for Business, Innovation&Skills(2011).
2. EarningsmobilityinHongKong 2.1 Earnings mobility describes the movement of an individual from one incomegrouptoanother within one'slifetime. Ratesofmobilityareoftenrelated to the pace of economic growth. For example, sustained rapid economic growth will help increase the size of the overall economic pie, thereby providing more opportunitiesforpeoplemovinguptheearningsladder. 2.2 Hong Kong's economy grew rapidly by an annual average of 6.6% during 1978‐1996, benefited from the business opportunities offered by the implementation of the Mainland's Open Door Policy in 1978. In parallel with the relocationofmanufacturingoperationsacrosstheborder,HongKonghasleveraged on its distinct role as a gateway to the Mainland to transform itself into a service economy.4 Ample job opportunities were thus created in the services sector, resulting in buoyant earnings growth. Indicative of the above trend, the median monthly employment earnings of the overall workforce in Hong Kong surged by a totalof139%inrealtermsduring1976‐1996(Figure1).5 Figure1–GrowthofmedianmonthlyemploymentearningsandGDPinrealterms, 1976‐2013
Then… mid‐1970s1996
Now… 19972013
Cumulativeearningsgrowth:139% AnnualaverageGDPgrowth : 6.6%
Cumulativeearningsgrowth: 14% AnnualaverageGDPgrowth :3.5%
Source: CensusandStatisticsDepartment.
4
5
ReflectingthestructuralchangeinHongKong'seconomy,theshareofthemanufacturingsectoringrossdomestic product ("GDP") fell from 26.7% in 1978 to 6.7% in1996, while thecorresponding share of the services sector increasedfrom63.6%to85.4%. Itwasnotuntil1982thattheCensusandStatisticsDepartment("C&SD")startedtopublishthemedianmonthly employment earnings on a quarterly basis. Before that, the figure was only available from the Population CensuscompiledbyC&SDeveryfiveyears. Assuch,the1976PopulationCensusfigurewasusedtoshowthe amountofmedianmonthlyemploymentearningsbeforetheimplementationoftheMainland'sOpenDoorPolicy in1978. 2
2.3 As shown in Figure1, the cumulative real growth in median monthly earnings moderated somewhat to a mere 14% between 1997 and 2013, consequentialtotheslowdownofHongKong'sGDPgrowthduringtheperiod. The economic slowdown was attributable to a series of external shocks, including the outbreaks of the Asian financial crisis in 1997‐1998, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndromein2003,andglobalfinancialcrisisin2008. Alsocontributedwasa lack ofgrowthenginesamid the waningintermediary role of Hong Kongupon increasing integrationoftheMainlandwiththeworldeconomy.6 2.4 AstudyconductedbytheUniversityofHongKong7 ("theHKUstudy")also underscores the trend of limited opportunities for people moving up the earnings ladderinrecentyears. TheHKUstudyfirstrankedlocalworkersinaccordancewith the level of their earnings in 2003 and grouped them into five quintiles.8 They werethenre‐rankedandregroupedbasedontheirupdatedearningslevelfiveyears laterin2008. Accordingtothestudy,ahighpercentageshareofworkersstayedin thesamequintileofearnings ladderover thefive‐yearperiodof2003‐2008and the 10‐year period of 1998‐2008 (Figure2). It also unveiled the phenomenon of "being trapped at the bottom", i.e. 54.1% of the workers in the lowest income quintileexperiencednomobilityalongtheearningsladderafter10yearsofwork. Figure2–Earningsmobilityoflocalworkforce
62.9%:Noearnings
47.2% :Noearnings
mobilityafter5years ofwork.
mobilityafter10yearsof work.
54.1%:Noearnings mobilityforworkersinthe lowestincomequintile after10yearsofwork. Source: Vere(2010).
6
7
8
SeeTsang(2007). ThestudywascommissionedbytheGovernmentandcompletedbytheUniversityofHongKongin2010. Itwas basedonthehouseholdsurveyconductedbyC&SDin2008. Anincomequintiledividesthepopulationintofiveincomegroups(fromthelowestto thehighestincome) such that20%ofthepopulationisineachgroup. 3
2.5 Thesubduedearningsgrowthinrecentyearshasaddedtothedifficulties inhomeownershipofprivateresidentialflats,anotherindicatorofsocialmobilityin Hong Kong. This is particularly the case in view of the latest upsurge in private residentialflatprices. Reflectingthis,theaverage flatpricefor a small residential unit surged by a total of 188% during 2006‐2013 9 , whereas the median monthly household income increased by 30% over the same period. This divergent trend contrastedwiththeearlierperiodbetween the1980sandthemid‐1990s,whenthe median monthly household income growth closely matched the pace of flat price increases.10 Probably reflecting the deteriorating home purchase affordability of late, the ratio of owner‐occupiers11 in private residential flats has reversed its uptrendtodowntrendinrecentyears(Figure3). Figure3–Ratioofowner‐occupiersinprivateresidentialflats,1981‐2013
Owner-occupiers (2006-2013)
Owner-occupiers (1981-1996)
67.1%
70.5%
in 1996
in 2006
66.7%
40.6%
in 2013
in 1981 Source: CensusandStatisticsDepartment.
3. EducationalmobilityinHongKong 3.1 Social mobility can also be measured by the changes in educational attainment of the population as a whole. Hong Kong has benefited from a rapid expansionofdegreeeducationinthe1990sandsub‐degreeeducationin the2000s. According to the Population Census, people with post‐secondary education accounted for 27.3% of the total population in 2011, more than doubled the correspondingshareof11.3%in1991. 9
Theprivateresidentialpropertymarketwentthroughaconsolidationin2006withamodest0.8%annualincrease in average flat price. It has since then resumed a distinct uptrend notwithstanding the recent Government's measurestocurbrisingflatprices. 10 During1981‐1996,boththemedianmonthlyhouseholdincomeandaverageflatpriceincreasedbyatotaloffive tosixtimes. 11 Anowner‐occupierisapersonwholivesinahousethatheorsheowns.
4
3.2 Youths aged 15‐24 benefited most from the rapid expansion in post‐secondaryeducationopportunities. During1991‐2011,thepercentageshare ofyouthsaged15‐24withpost‐secondaryeducationincreasedfrom13.7%to39.3%. LendingparticularsupportwastheannouncementbytheChiefExecutivein2000to launcha policy toraise the participationrate inpost‐secondary educationfrom33% to60%in10years'time. 3.3 However, the expansion of post‐secondary education opportunities has been almost exclusively in the two‐year sub‐degree programmes provided by the self‐financed sector. According to the latest statistics from the University Grants Committee("UGC"),theannualsupplyof self‐financedfirst‐yearsub‐degreeplaces (including associate degrees and higher diplomas) outpaced that of UGC‐funded first‐year first degree places by a large extent between the academic years of 2000/01and2009/10(Figure4). Figure 4 – Supply of full‐time first‐year post‐secondary education places, 2000/01‐2009/10 Full‐timedegree: Full‐timesub‐degree: +26388places(1) +3580places in10years in10years (or88%ofthe (or12%ofthe increaseinthetotal increaseinthetotal post‐secondary post‐secondary educationplaces) educationplaces) Note: (1) Comprising2304publiclyfundedplacesand24084self‐financingplaces. Source: UniversityGrantsCommittee.
3.4 Whilereceivingpost‐secondaryeducationiswidelyconsideredasameans toclimbuptheearningsladder,thereisacleardifferentiationinearningsbetween degree and sub‐degree holders. In 2013, the median monthly employment earningsofa degreeholderwasHK$25,000,higherthanthatofHK$13,000earned by an average worker. Yet the earnings premium was much smaller for a sub‐degreeholder,whoearnedaboutHK$15,000in2013. 5
4. OccupationalmobilityinHongKong 4.1 Occupationisakey indicator of aperson'ssocio‐economicstatus,andby extension, another measure for social mobility. According to the Population Census,therewasanincreasingshareofpeopleworking asmanagers,professionals and associate professionals during 1991‐2011, in line with the expansion of educationopportunitiesandhigherdemandforworkerswithbetterknowledgeand skills during the period. The combined share of these higher‐skilled jobs in total workforceincreasedvisiblyfrom23.2%in1991to 39.0%in2011. Yet muchofthe improvement since the early 2000s was fuelled by the increase in the share of people working as associate professionals from 10.3% in 1991 to 21.1% in 2011, implyinglimitedjobopportunitiesfor higher‐paidmanagerialandprofessionaljobs (Figure5). Figure5–Percentageshareofworkingpopulationengagedinselectedoccupations
Totalworkingpopulation
2001
2011
21.1%
15.3%
1991
Associate professionals
10.3%
17.9% 16.2%
HK$18,250
Managers
+
12.9%
HK$35,000
Professionals HK$35,900
Medianmonthlyemploymentearningsin2013 Source: CensusandStatisticsDepartment.
6
4.2 Employed youths aged 15‐24 exhibitedabroadlysimilarjobpictureduring 1991‐2011, albeit being more concentrated in associate professional jobs 12 . Another noteworthy trend was increased share of them working as lower‐wage service and sales workers, from 21% in 1991 to 34% in 2011 (Figure6). A similar downward occupational mobility was observed from a recent study showing that youths aged 15‐29 with degree education were increasingly driven to clerical and service/sales jobs during 2001‐2011. 13 The above development may not commensurate with the aspirations of today's young generation, particularly better‐off environment and higher educational attainment have heightened their expectationsforcareerandlife.14 Figure6–Percentageshareofyouthsaged15‐24takingupserviceandsalesjobs
Workingyouthsaged15‐24
2011
34.0% 2001 1991
Serviceand salesworkers
23.6% 21.0%
HK$9,880 Medianmonthlyemploymentearningsin2013 Source: CensusandStatisticsDepartment.
12
The combined share of youths aged 15‐24 working as managers, professionals and associate professionals increased from 16.0% in 1991 to 21.4% in 2001 and further to 22.9% in 2011. This was contributed mainly bythe increase in the corresponding share of associate professionals, which was at 12.5% in 1991, 16.5% in 2001and18.3%in2011. 13 Accordingto 趙 永 佳 、 葉 仲 茵 (2014),thepercentageshareofyouthsaged15‐29withdegreeeducationtaking upclericaljobsincreasedfrom11.0%to18.2%during2000‐2011. Thecorrespondingshareforserviceandsales jobsalsoexhibitedanincreasingtrendfrom5.1%in2000to6.8%in2011. 14 SeeHongKongUniversityofScienceandTechnology(2010)andSteeringCommitteeonPopulationPolicy(2014). 7
5.
Inter‐generationalsocialmobilityinHongKong
5.1 Social mobility can also be inter‐generational, which is commonly measured by the correlation between parents' and children's earnings, education and/or occupation. The higher the correlation, the less inter‐generational social mobilitywillbe. TheHKUstudy,asmentionedinparagraph2.4,unveiledapositive correlation between the educational status of parents and their children in HongKong(Figure7).
Figure7–Inter‐generationaleducationalmobilityin2008
Fatherhad adegree.
Probability:
73.6%
Sonhad adegreeaswell.
Source: Vere(2010).
5.2 Asimilarobservationoninter‐generationaleducationalmobilitywasmade byarecentstudyoftheHongKongInstituteofEducation.15 The study compared the university enrolment rates of youths aged 19‐20 from the wealthiest 10% of families with those with household incomes less than half the median level. It is foundthatin2011,theuniversityenrolmentrateofyouthslivinginrichfamilieswas 3.7timesthatofthoselivinginpoverty.
5.3 On inter‐generational occupational and earnings mobility, the empirical findingsfromtheHKUstudyreflectedtheinfluenceofparentalbackgroundonone's careerprospects(Figure8),aswellasonchildren'searningsmobility(Figure9).
Figure8–Inter‐generationaloccupationalmobilityin2008 Probability: Son was Fatherwas aprofessionalaswell. aprofessional. 42.8% Source: Vere(2010).
15
SeeChou(2013). 8
Figure9–Inter‐generationalearningsmobilityin2008 Inter‐generationalincomeelasticity(1):0.42 Father'searnings: HK$10,000aboveaverage HK$4,200or42%offather's incomeadvantagewouldbe passedontotheson. Note: (1) Earningsmobilityacrossgenerationsiscommonlymeasuredbythe inter‐generationalincomeelasticity. Itvalueliesbetween"0"and"1",where"0"indicatesextrememobilityand"1"extremeimmobility. Source: Vere(2010).
6. Concludingremarks 6.1 Recentstatisticsandresearchstudieshaverevealedlimitedopportunities forpeoplemovinghigheronthesocialladder. Whilesustainedeconomicgrowthis thekeytoprovideearningsmobility toasociety,HongKong'sannualaverageGDP growth during 1997‐2013 almost halved that in 1978‐1996. On educational mobility, the recent expansion of post‐secondary education places has been concentrated on the self‐financed sub‐degree sector. Yet, higher educational attainmenthas notledto betterjob prospects,with an increasing shareofpeople engagedinlower‐paidassociateprofessionaljobs,andtosomeextent,service and sales jobs. Furthermore, there was a statistically significant correlation between the socio‐economic status of parents and their children in 2008, suggesting low inter‐generationalsocialmobility. 6.2 Social mobility is essential to the creation of social harmony. With the beliefthateffortsmadecanimproveone'sprospects,societycan be developedina stable and sustainable manner. On the other hand, reduced social mobility may affectsomepeople'sperceptionof equalityofopportunities,andbyextension,the fairness of the society as a whole. With doubts about social justice, they may becomefrustratedandcriticalofsociety andgovernanceofHongKong. Toreflect the latest picture of social mobility, it may be opportune to update the HKU study published in 2010 to ascertain the latest changes in earnings, educational and occupationalmobility. WhiletheGovernmenthasrecentlyannounceditsintention of commissioning a household survey in 2015 to update the mobility study, early completion of the...
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