23293 20209 ECO466H5F LEC9101 PDF

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Department of Economics University of Toronto Mississauga ECO466H5F – Empirial Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Fall 2020 Instructors – Lectures Prof. Yingnan Zhao, Office: KN 3210, Phone: (905) 828.3910, Email: [email protected] Prof. Martin Burda, Office: KN 3248, Phone: (416) 978.4479, Email: [email protected] Teaching assistant: Paul Han, [email protected], Office hour: Tuesdays 3-5pm Policy for communication via email: Please make sure to 1. include course code in the subject line and 2. only use your @mail.utoronto.ca address. You should expect a response within 48hrs under normal circumstances. Please do not use the Quercus Inbox Application to communicate with us. We do not answer these.

Course Delivery Format Online synchronous. Tuesdays & Thursdays 9:00 am – 11:00 am (September 10 – October 27).

Time Zone Information All lecture times, tutorial times, exam times, deadlines, etc. are stated in local Toronto time. Please note that Toronto adheres to Eastern Daylight Time until Sunday, November 1, 2020, 2:00 am, followed by Eastern Standard Time until Sunday, March 14, 2021, 2:00 am, followed again by Eastern Daylight Time. It is your responsibility to correctly convert local Toronto time to your time zone: we will not accept confusion about deadlines as an excuse for lateness or missed tests/work.

Course Description This course builds on material covered in ECO202/208/209, ECO325H, and ECO375/475. Students will increase their data literacy and learn how to apply techniques to address policy issues. The topics covered will include the practical design of monetary policy, the rationale of current monetary policy in Canada, and statistical methods for predicting key macroeconomic variables. As part of the course, students will follow current global issues and will forecast how the domestic and international events may alter the Bank of Canada's monetary policy in the short run.

Course Structure Instead of running the entire twelve (12) weeks, this entire course, including all class meetings and assignment due dates, will be completed in the first six (6) weeks of the Fall term (i.e., the course will be delivered in a condensed format). In addition to individual tasks, students will be divided into groups and work towards a Group Report. Following the conclusion of the course, five students will be selected to participate* in the Bank of Canada (BofC) competition “Governor’s Challenge” (http://www.bankofcanada.ca/research/governors-challenge/) which takes place in two rounds: round 1 via Skype from Toronto in November and, if the team successfully passes to the next round, round 2 at the BofC premises in Ottawa in the winter (usually January or February). This will require extra time commitment above and beyond the scope of the course. *Please note that course credit will not be given for participation in the Governor’s Challenge.

ECO466H5F, Syllabus, Fall 2020, Page 1 of 8

Prerequisites and Exclusions: Exclusion: ECO402H5 Special Topics: Empirical Macroeconomics and Policy (20199) Prerequisite: ECO325H5 and (ECO220Y5 or ECO227Y5 or (1.0 credit from STA256H5, STA258H5, STA260H5). Recommended Preparation: ECO375H5 Prerequisites are strictly checked and enforced and must be completed before taking a course. By taking this course you acknowledge that you will be removed from the course at anytime if you do not meet all requirements set by the Department of Economics. For further information can be found in the 2020-2021 Academic Calendar: https://student.utm.utoronto.ca/calendar.

Tech Requirements and Connection Tools We will use Stata for empirical analysis of macroeconomic models. Basic familiarity with Stata is assumed. Students must create an official UTM Zoom account using their UTORid and password at https://utoronto.zoom.us. Logging in with an unofficial account will leave you stranded in the waiting room and unable to attend lectures / tutorials / office hours. In order to take this course, you will need reliable and regular access to a laptop/desktop; a cell phone is NOT sufficient. In the tests, both a laptop/desktop and a webcam are required. You will also need reliable and regular access to high-speed internet. See the University’s Recommended Technology Requirements for Remote/Online Learning for more details. Read also the UTM Library Learn Anywhere resource website.

Important Dates Enrolment deadline: Sep 16 (note: since this is a condensed course, the enrolment deadline imposed by the Department of Economics will be earlier than the official last day to add/drop courses) For sessional dates see https://www.utm.utoronto.ca/registrar/important-dates.

Evaluation The final grade is based on the following: Task

Weight

Dates

Test 1 on Monetary Policy

20 %

September 22

Test 2 on Statistical Tools

20 %

October 8

Group Report slides

20 %

October 22

Group Report presentation

25 %

October 22

Participation

5%

Throughout the course

Macroeconomics Assignment

5%

September 22

Econometrics Assignment

5%

October 1

*Additional problem sets or assignments may be given out throughout the course. These will not be graded, but serve to prepare students for the graded test, assignments and the BofC competition.

ECO466H5F, Syllabus, Fall 2020, Page 2 of 8

Privacy and the Use of Course Materials By enrolling in this course, the students agree that any material they submit as part of their Assignments or Group Report, or any ideas generated by them during the course, may be used by other students during participation in the “Governor’s Challenge” Bank of Canada competition. All students in the course thus contribute to a team endeavor to represent the University of Toronto at the national stage. This course, including your participation, will be recorded on video and will be available to students in the course for viewing remotely and after each session. Course videos and materials belong to your instructor, the University, and/or other sources depending on the specific facts of each situation, and are protected by copyright. Do not download, copy, or share any course or student materials or videos without the explicit permission of the instructor. For questions about recording and use of videos in which you appear please contact your instructor.

Tentative Course Schedule Day

Month

Date

Thu

Sep

10

Tue

Sep

Thu

Instructor Prof. Burda

Topic

Prof. Zhao

Introduction Monetary Policy in Canada

15

Prof. Zhao

Transmission of monetary policy

Sep

17

Prof. Burda

Statistical tools and VAR

Tue

Sep

22

Prof. Zhao

Test 1 on Monetary Policy Group discussion

Thu

Sep

24

Prof. Burda

VAR Case Study

Tue

Sep

29

Prof. Zhao

The Monetary Policy Report Group discussion

Thu

Oct

1

Prof. Burda

VAR Discussion

Tue

Oct

6

Prof. Zhao

Discussion on current events relevant to monetary policy

Thu

Oct

8

Prof. Burda

Test 2 on Statistical Tools Group discussion

Tue

Oct

20

Prof. Zhao

Preparation BofC Challenge

Thu

Oct

22

Prof. Burda Prof. Zhao

Group Report presentations

Tue

Oct

27

Prof. Burda

Preparation BofC Challenge

Assignment

Macroeconomics Assignment due

Econometrics Assignment due

ECO466H5F, Syllabus, Fall 2020, Page 3 of 8

Course Policies: Late Submissions of Assignments: Late assignments will be subject to a late penalty of 20% per day (including weekends) of the total marks for the assignment. Assignments submitted five calendar days beyond the due date will be assigned a grade of zero. Assignments handed in AFTER the work has been returned to the class cannot be marked for credit. Accommodations due to late registration into the course will NOT be approved. Computer viruses, crashed hard drives, broken printers, lost or corrupted files, incompatible file formats, faulty internet, battery problems, and similar mishaps are common issues when using technology, and are not acceptable grounds for a deadline extension. It is every student’s responsibility to ensure that their online submission is submitted successfully by the due date. Accommodations will not be made for unsuccessful submissions due to, but not limited to, i) the system timing out, ii) submitting the incorrect document(s), iii) poor internet connection / no internet connection etc. Missed Term Tests Students who miss a test / due date because of circumstances beyond their control (e.g. illness or an accident) can request that the Department grant them special consideration. The following steps must be completed in order to be considered for academic accommodation for any missed quiz/test/assignment. 1. Your absence must be declared on ACORN on the day of the missed test / due date, or by the day after, at the latest. 2. You must notify your professor by e-mail within one week of the missed test / deadline. 3. Complete an online Special Consideration Request within one week of the missed test / due date. The University is temporarily suspending the need for a doctor’s note or medical certificate for any absence from academic participation if you are experiencing COVID-19 symptoms. However, this policy may change at any point during the course. If you missed your test for a reason connected to your registered disability, the department will accept documentation supplied by Accessibility Services. If you visited a Dentist, Nurse/Nurse Practitioner, Physician/Surgeon, Psychologist, Psychotherapist or Social Worker registered and licensed in the Province of Ontario, have them fill out the University’s Verification of Student Illness or Injury form. In other cases, a Verification of Extenuating Circumstances form is acceptable. Other documentation can include, but is not limited to, automobile collision or police reports, death certificates, and supporting documentation from employers, lawyers and other related personnel. Please email your form to [email protected]. 4. Consult the Office of the Registrar should your absence be lengthy or affect multiple courses. The written explanation and documentation that you submit represents an appeal from you, requesting the opportunity to account for that portion of your grade in some other manner. If an appeal is not received, or if the appeal is deemed unacceptable, you will receive a grade of zero for the item you missed. If the appeal is granted – that is, your reason for missing the item is considered acceptable by the professors, you will be discussing a case-by-case solution with the professors. Note that it is your responsibility to ensure that your email account is working. Claims that a Departmental decision was not received will NOT be considered as a reason for further consideration. Note that holidays and pre-purchased plane tickets, family plans, your friend’s wedding, lack of preparation, or too many other tests/assignments are not acceptable excuses for missing a quiz, a test or an item of term work. Feeling Ill in a Test Students CANNOT petition to re-write a quiz/test once the test has begun. If you are feeling ill, please do ECO466H5F, Syllabus, Fall 2020, Page 4 of 8

not start the online or in-class test and seek medical attention immediately, and the policy on Missed Term Tests will apply. Regrade Request Upon requesting a re-grade of your assignments and tests, please send an email to Paul Han, [email protected], and c.c. to the instructors. Regrading requests must be received no later than one month from the date of the term test is returned. Make sure that you attach a complete scan of the test, and justify in the email which question you feel that additional marks are warranted. Petitions without an explanation backed by theory or justified according to the marking scheme will NOT be addressed. Please note that by submitting a re-mark request, the student acknowledges that the entire test will be evaluated, which may raise or lower your mark. Once the test has been re-marked, no additional changes will be made to the grade. Equity Statement and Academic Rights: The University of Toronto is committed to equity and respect for diversity. All members of the learning environment in this course should strive to create an atmosphere of mutual respect. As a course instructor, I will neither condone nor tolerate behaviour that undermines the dignity or self-esteem of any individual in this course and wish to be alerted to any attempt to create an intimidating or hostile environment. It is our collective responsibility to create a space that is inclusive and welcomes discussion. Discrimination, harassment and hate speech will not be tolerated. If you have any questions, comments, or concerns you may contact the UTM Equity & Diversity Office at [email protected]. Academic Rights You, as a student at UTM, have the right to: • obtain a course syllabus either through accessing a copy on Quercus, through the UTM Timetable (accessible through the Office of the Registrar website), or one can be provided by the instructor. The course syllabus must be available/provided at the beginning of a course; • rely upon the information detailed within a course syllabus. An instructor may only change methods of evaluation, or their relative weight, by following the University Assessment and Grading Practices Policy provision Part B: 1.3. • refuse to use turnitin.com (you must be offered an alternative form of submission); • have access to your instructor for consultation during a course, or follow up with the unit Chair or Director if the instructor is unavailable; • ask the person who marked their term work for a re-evaluation if they feel it was not fairly graded. Students must make any inquiries about the mark on a graded piece of work within one month of the return date of the work. If the student is not satisfied with a re-evaluation, they may appeal to the instructor in charge of the course if the instructor did not mark the work. If the student’s work is remarked, they must accept the resulting mark. They may only appeal a mark beyond the instructor if the term work was worth at least 20% of the course mark. See Re-marking Pieces of Term Work of this document for full details of the process; • receive at least one significant mark (weighted at 15% for H courses, 25% for Y courses) by the last scheduled class prior to the academic drop deadline (the academic drop date), with one exception: for courses that run the entire Fall/Winter Session (Y5Y or H5Y courses), the deadline shall be the last regular class meeting of the first week of classes in January; • submit handwritten essays, so long as they are neatly written; • have no assignment worth 100% of the student’s final grade; • not have a term test or combination of term tests in an individual course be worth greater than 25% in the last two weeks of class; • retain intellectual property rights to their term work; ECO466H5F, Syllabus, Fall 2020, Page 5 of 8

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receive all their assignments, tests, and other term work once graded; view their final exams. To see a final exam, students must submit an online Exam Reproduction Request within 6 months of the date of the exam. There is a small non- refundable fee (please note that this process is overseen by the Office of the Registrar); privacy of their final grades; and arrange for representation from Downtown Legal Services (DLS), a representative from the UTM Students’ Union (UTMSU), and/or other forms of support if they are charged with an academic offence.

Student Conduct It is your responsibility as a student at the University of Toronto to familiarize yourself with, and adhere to, The Code of Student Conduct, which is a University policy that sets out expectations for student behavior, and prescribes processes for dealing with prohibited behaviour. The Student’s Companion to the Student Code of Conduct is a set of frequently asked questions and the responses about the Code of Student Conduct. It aims to simplify and clarify Code usage for the University’s community members. Academic Integrity Academic integrity is essential to the pursuit of learning and scholarship in a university, and to ensuring that a degree from the University of Toronto Mississauga is a strong signal of each student’s individual academic achievement. As a result, UTM treats cases of cheating and plagiarism very seriously. The University of Toronto’s Code of Behaviour on Academic Matters outlines behaviours that constitute academic dishonesty and the process for addressing academic offences. Potential offences include, but are not limited to: In papers and assignments: • • • •

Using someone else’s ideas or words without appropriate acknowledgement. Submitting your own work in more than one course without the permission of the instructor. Making up sources or facts. Obtaining or providing unauthorized assistance on any assignment.

On tests and exams: • • •

Using or possessing unauthorized aids. Looking at someone else’s answers during an exam or test. Misrepresenting your identity.

In academic work: • •

Falsifying institutional documents or grades. Falsifying or altering any documentation required, including (but not limited to) doctor’s notes.

With regard to remote learning and online courses, UTM wishes to remind students that they are expected to adhere to the Code of Behaviour on Academic Matters regardless of the course delivery method. By offering students the opportunity to learn remotely, UTM expects that students will maintain the same academic honesty and integrity that they would in a classroom setting. Potential academic offences in a digital context include, but are not limited to: Remote assessments: • • • •

Accessing unauthorized resources (search engines, chat rooms, Reddit, etc.) for assessments. Using technological aids (e.g. software) beyond what is listed as permitted in an assessment. Posting test, essay, or exam questions to message boards or social media. Creating, accessing, and sharing assessment questions and answers in virtual “course groups.” ECO466H5F, Syllabus, Fall 2020, Page 6 of 8

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Working collaboratively, in-person or online, with others on assessments that are expected to be completed individually.

All suspected cases of academic dishonesty will be investigated following procedures outlined in the Code of Behaviour on Academic Matters. If you have questions or concerns about what constitutes appropriate academic behaviour or appropriate research and citation methods, you are expected to seek out additional information on academic integrity from your instructor or from other institutional resources. Honesty and fairness are considered fundamental to the university's mission, and, as a result, all those who violate those principles are dealt with as if they were damaging the integrity of the university itself. When students are suspected of cheating or a similar academic offence, they are typically surprised at how formally and seriously the matter is dealt with -- and how severe the consequences can be if it is determined that cheating did occ...