5. Impacts on Health of Climate Extemes PDF

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Taken with Dr. Bernier....

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Impacts on Health of Climate Extemes

Key Concepts  Climate extremes  Exposure trends  Heat waves  Future health risks  Options for response Earth’s Future Climate  General o Image from last lecture, the 4 worlds in terms of temperature and precipitation changes- if we continue how we are going and if we change  RCP2.6= change our ways  RCP8.5= we keep on going how we are now  Arctic has highest increase in temperature and precipitation in both cases What are Climate Extremes?  General: o Those are based on simple climate statistics, which includes extremes such as a very low or very high daily temperature or heavy daily or monthly rainfall amount, that occur every year  something very outside of the norm o Most complex, event driven extremes, for example: drought, floods or hurricanes (exceptional in terms of how they diverge from the norm) o Do not necessarily occur every year at a given location o Extremes be come more frequent and more extreme and lead to impacts on human health  Hurricane Katrina, August 2005 o In southern states o When it hit the coasts, it lead to 108 billion dollars in damage and almost 2000 deaths o Had more indirect health impacts o Inundated the cost lines  North India Floods, 2013 o Exceptional rainfall o Lead to almost 6,000 deaths  Question: to which type of natural hazards do climate extremes belong? Hydrometerological  Vulnerability to climate extremes o Less developed countries usually more at risk and vulnerable

o In some cases (Barbados) have more than half of their population in direct danger o In some cases their livelihoods are more in danger than lives o In some cases entire makeup/infrastructure would be in danger o Ex. Nicaragua would totally collapse, Chile has better system in place and would have less deaths o How to deal with this?

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You would evacuate people if you know a disaster is coming... problem in terms of ability to move that people who have high vulnerability to disaster are trapped due to low economic status want to but don’t have the means  When we have people who are more mobile economically have less vulnerability  There is a direct correlation between peoples ability to move, wellbeing and economic status (livelihood/where they rank on human development index) o More and more people exposed

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There has been a decrease in number of people who are dying in these hazards but we are seeing that number of events have been increasing and populations that have been exposed have been increasing Mostly hydrometrological events increase Will lead to more indirect impacts that will affect human health With more climate extremes need to worry about socioeconomic losses as well

What are Heat Waves?  General o When temperature ‘feels hot’ o High percentage of humidity in the atmosphere o With high temperatures and greater humidity in the atmosphere= temperature feels hotter, eventually get into different kinds of dangers at higher temperatures o People who have CV, respiratory disease are more at risk  In August 2003, heat wave in France caused more than 14,800 deaths o Particularly the elderly o People suffered from CV and respiratory failure o Tended to be concentrated mainly in Paris where heat was more intense o In cities, less green space/moisture, there is less places to absorb excess head= felt heat more  2006 Heat wave o 2nd massive heat wave to hit Europe in 4 years, also parts in the USA  Almost 10 degrees warmer then normal o Temperature rose to 40 degrees in Paris o France:*****

o Netherlands: Climate Change and Future Impacts on Health  General o Know there will be more heat and precipitation o Possibly more floods and storms o What will lead to human health impacts is local conditions

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Floods as a future health risk o Slide 15  Compares 1970 to 2030 projections  Bigger circle= more exposure  Not expected changes in north America but in Africa and Asia the exposure to floods will increase o More frequent? Stronger? Hurricanes as a future health risk o North America is more vulnerable and Asia will suffer the most o More frequent storm? More powerful storms?  Inundation of land  More storm surges  Increased physical dangers overall Warm day projections o See that we’ll have warmer temperatures when compared to the average o Increase in place that will have days where temperature will be 30 increased probability of heat waves and other health related problems will increase

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Temperature-mortality curves of overall cumulative relative risk for days of summer o Looking at impact of overall increase in temperatures on mortality o Left= Boston  Increase in mortality risks increase with higher temperatures o Right= New York, same outcome o This is if we keep doing what were doing now (i.e. nothing)

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Projected-heat mortality rates in the US- Urban Northeast: 2020, 2050, 2080  Boston, New York and Philadelphia o RCP4.5: low emission scenario, moderate temperature increase o RCP8.5: high emission scenario, significant temperature increase o Risk for mortality is increased in all of these with RCP8.5 model Heat-related mortality in a warming climate: projections for 12 US cities o Expanded on work in 12 cities o Saw increases not only in heat waves but heat strokes as well o A2= high emission scenario see greater mortality (black bars)

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Responses to Risks  General

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o More health impacts bc people become more vulnerable and exposed o Need to try to adapt to these changes that would minimize risks to these disasters… bring down GHG emissions so temperature increases aren’t so extreme Opportunities for risk management

o Reduce vulnerability (improving socioeconomic status) and preparing and responding to these risks where options are the best Questions: which steps could be taken to prepare for heat waves and mitigate their effects?...