Assignment 1b (PDF) PDF

Preview

Summary

UNIVERSITI CAWANGAN MELAKA KAMPUS BANDARAYA MELAKAFIN534 – BUSINESS ANALYTICS AND FINANCIAL MODELLINGINDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENTASSIGNMENT 1bPREPARED BY: SOFEA SHAHIRA BINTI NOR RAHMANSTUDENT’S ID: 2019253078GROUP: BA2423ASUBMITTED TO: NUR HAYATI ABD. RAHMAN27 NOVEMBER 2020IntroductionThe fertility rate i...

Description

UNIVERSITI CAWANGAN MELAKA KAMPUS BANDARAYA MELAKA

FIN534 – BUSINESS ANALYTICS AND FINANCIAL MODELLING INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT

ASSIGNMENT 1b

PREPARED BY: SOFEA SHAHIRA BINTI NOR RAHMAN STUDENT’S ID: 2019253078 GROUP: BA2423A SUBMITTED TO: NUR HAYATI ABD. RAHMAN

27 NOVEMBER 2020 1

Introduction The fertility rate is the number of live births per 1,000 women of reproductive age between 15 and 49 years of age per year. It is a more precise way of calculating fertility than a crude birth rate, since the fertility rate is the number of women aged 15 to 49 years in the population. Malaysia's overall fertility rate has been decreasing since 1960. When fertility declines, this means that not among adults or the elderly, but among the young, the population size decreases. If this occurs, the long-term population size would quickly decline due to already low fertility rates. While we may not see the immediate consequences of the decline, this creates an imbalance in the nation, with a smaller yet ageing population in the long term. In 2010, the young population was 7.8 million, and we have seen a decline to 7.53 million by the first quarter of 2020. There will be an ageing population in the future with existing low fertility rates. As mentioned above a higher proportion of the overall population will be composed of adults and the elderly. In sectors such as health, financial services, community planning and social services, this has consequences. If the low fertility rate continues to decrease, this results in an even greater imbalance in the age structure.

2

Descriptive Statistics Descriptive statistics are intended to help me summarise and finalise the total fertility rate data in Malaysia so that they can be widely identified. The purpose of doing descriptive statistics at the fertility rate trend in Malaysia to determine whether it increased or decreased from 1960 to 2018. In addition, to analyze the data to know whether the pattern is good or bad and whether it leads to problems that have a significant effect on the country.

Table I Mean/Average

3.699915254

Median

3.6

Mode Min Max Variance Standard Deviation Coefficient of Variation Skewness Kurtosis Square root of n

#N/A 2.001 6.45 1.771808424 1.331092943 0.35976309 0.503556789 -0.685696902 7.681145748

FERTILITY RATE, TOTAL (BIRTHS PER WOMAN) 8 6 4 2 0 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

3

2000

2010

2020

2030

Interpretation on descriptive statistics

Both the mean of 3.6999 and median of 3.6 indicate where the fertility rate is in average number throughout the years, and there is mode as no value that has been frequently repeated in the data used meaning that the total fertility rate in Malaysia do not recorded at the same number every single year. Thus, the minimum value in this data is about 2.001 and the maximum value is approximately 6.45. As for the variance and standard deviation, both shows the small value which is 1.772 and 1.331 respectively. It tells us that the values tend to be close to the mean of the total fertility rate. Besides, this data set has a positive value for skewness which is 0.504, that results the graph is skewed to the right. That means, the distortion in a bell curve is shifted to the right as the mean and median is greater than the mode of the data set used. Lastly, the kurtosis value is -0.686 which indicates that the distributions of the data is spread evenly and the tail is lighter. The total fertility rate per woman aged 15-49 years has been declining from 6.45 babies in 1960 to 2.00 babies in 2018. In Malaysia, Penang shows the lowest birth rate with the total fertility rate of 1.3 per woman and the highest fertility rate among the states in Malaysia for the past 3 years is Terengganu at 3.1, followed by Kelantan and Putrajaya at 3.0 and 2.6 respectively. Generally, from 1960 till 2018, women in Malaysia are giving births to three children per woman in average during their reproductive age which is 19 to 49 years old. However, total fertility rate in Malaysia is declining due to drop number of live births recently. Low number of live births is more likely related to marriages which when people tend to get married late, the rate of marriages decreases hence, it is estimated the birth rate to reduce the following year therefore it leads to low fertility rate. Based on the histogram, most of the year has low fertility rate births per woman starting from 1997 onwards maybe because of the rising costs start to be increased. In the table above, it shows that it has small standard deviation value. It means that the value is close to the mean value of total fertility rate which is 3.7 and result there is no outliers for this data used. In simple words, there is no women in Malaysia that give births to the extreme number of children. The data has kurtosis value of -0.687 which means it has platykurtic distributions because there is fewer value closest to the mean and the curve has the flat peak as the data spread evenly.

4

Hypothesis Testing

Have Malaysia reached Fertility Replacement Level ? There are stated in the news saying that the total fertility rate in Malaysia has been dropped to the fertility replacement level of 2.1 which that is the average number of births per woman in their reproductive age life has been insufficient to replace the population basically. Therefore, the hypothesis testing purpose is to prove that is it true the total fertility rate in Malaysia is equal 2.1 using the two-tailed test as we can test for effects in both directions.

Two-tailed test H0: Total fertility rate in Malaysia = 2.1 H1: Total fertility rate in Malaysia ≠ 2.1 α: 0.05 t-test 𝑥 − 𝜇 𝑡=

Critical t-test p value p...