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Business Statistics ECON1193 – Semester 2, 2019Assessment Task 1: Case Study AnalysisNGUYEN DO DOANH – SLecture: NGUYEN MAI NGANClass time: Monday 11:30-2:Part A – Article Reading: The Future of ASEAN – Viet NamAccording to the PWC report the performance of Vietnam in ASEAN is on the way of developi...

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Business Statistics ECON1193 – Semester 2, 2019 Assessment Task 1: Case Study Analysis NGUYEN DO DOANH – S3773985 Lecture: NGUYEN MAI NGAN Class time: Monday 11:30-2:30

Part A – Article Reading: The Future of ASEAN – Viet Nam According to the PWC report the performance of Vietnam in ASEAN is on the way of developing strongly in ASEAN in particular and the world in general. Since joining ASEAN in 1995, Vietnam has always been among the fastest growing economies in the region in terms of GDP growth, foreign direct investment and the growth of the medium income segment. From a starting point as a small economy in the ASEAN region, Vietnam has made significant progress in the process of modernizing the economy to become a manufacturing center and a potential market for service industry. Although compared to many ASEAN member countries, Vietnam is still behind the development level and still limited in many aspects. However, Vietnam has been actively contributing to the overall development for the past 20 years for ASEAN to become one of the largest market in Asia.

Figure 1. FDI in ASEAN

Based on this Figure 1, Viet Nam’s share of ASEAN foreign direct investments (FDI) jumped to second position in Asia and fourth in the world (2016). Among few countries in ASEAN, Vietnam has a positive record about FDI growth in recent years, especially between 2010 and 2016, Vietnam slightly increase FDI growth from 7% in 2010 to 12% in 2016 and become a second largest share in ASEAN, behind Singapore (see Figure 2). In 2010, Vietnam's market share in ASEAN was only 7%, behind many countries in the region. However, within 6 years, Vietnam has increased by 5% to reach the 2nd position in ASEAN. This shows that Vietnam is a country with many potentials for investment and development to attract more foreign investment capital.

Figure 2. Share of ASEAN FDI, 2016

In addition to inherent resources, Vietnam also has abundant human resources. With the population being gradually rejuvenated, more than 50% of Vietnam's population is in working age and about 20% of them are well-trained and skilled, with degrees and certificates. Thus, Vietnam contributes about 55 million people in 348 million ASEAN employees, become the second largest labor market in ASEAN. With abundant human resources including manual labor and intellectual labor, Vietnam is developing rapidly and sustainably.

Figure 3. Labor Force in ASEAN, in millions

Figure 4. Vietnam’s labor force, in million.

Moreover, the rise of the middle class in ASEAN and Vietnam is a testament to the remarkable development of ASEAN and Vietnam in recent years. In Figure 5, the rapidly increase of ASEAN in middle-class income in the following years will help surpass Latin America and only behind China, a powerful nation in the world, in 2030. Although still ranked behind many countries in ASEAN, Vietnam has the highest growth in the region with 10, 1% growth (see Figure 6). This growth rate far exceeds other major ASEAN markets such as Singapore and Malaysia. The significant growth of middle-class income makes Vietnam become an attractive nation for a big foreign brands around the world. The growth of middle-class income not only give Vietnamese an opportunities to approach a famous foreign brands, but also attract more foreign investments in Vietnam market in many sectors such as Financial services, consumer goods and infrastructure – transportation.

Fig ure 5. Share middle-income class overall population.

Figure 6. Middle income population* in ASEAN

According to Asian Development Bank, BMI, banking penetration rate of Vietnam is the lowest country in 6 selected country in ASEAN ( Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam) and can be attributed to the country’s low banking penetration rate (see Figure 7). From Figure 8, there are only around 30.9% of Vietnamese people above 15 years of age had an account at a financial institution in 2015 while the average of ASEAN is 61.7%. Although the banking penetration among young Vietnamese has increased in recent years, the data shows that bank using in Vietnam is not really promoted yet and mostly Vietnamese people is prefer to use cash than credit card and etc. . With only 3.8 bank branches per 100,000 people Vietnam has one of the lowest numbers of banks in East and Southeast Asia and focus especially in major urban areas. However, in this digital age, having bank account is very essential and convenient because most of the payment can be paid through internet banking like electric bill. For that, this time will be a suitable time for foreign bank approach Vietnam market.

Figure 7. : Financial gross value add of selected Southeast Asian countries, US$ billions

Figure 8. Total banking penetration, 2014.

For the consumer goods sector, ASEAN is now the third-largest consumer goods market globally, in terms of consumer expenditure's share of GDP at 26.3%, after the Middle East and Africa region and Eastern Europe. Vietnam and The Philippines are leading consumer goods markets in ASEAN (Vietnam 37.5% and Philippines 42.1%). Consumer goods expenditure of the leading ASEAN-6 countries is projected to increase 7.7% from 2016 to 2021 and Vietnam is predicted to lead in terms of growth by 10.2% from 2016 to 2030 and followed by 9.7% of The Philippines in the same period (see Figure 9). This growth of consumer goods is due to the development of food and drink, apparel and footwear, and consumer electronics segments. Moreover, the growth of middle-class income helps the development of consumer goods. Vietnamese household nowadays pay more their attention in a premium goods with a good quality. In this terms of growth, it helps

the quality of Vietnamese goods more improve and the company’s product will focus in customer’s feedback and try to satisfy their customer.

Figure 9. Consumer expenditure as % of GDP, 2010 – 2030. In order to keep the growth of Vietnam, infrastructure-transportation need to strongly focus and invest. According to Oxford Economies, Vietnam has a second highest spending on transportation and infrastructure in ASEAN (Figure 10). As a manufacturing country, infrastructure-transportation is main sector to develop the country. This is critical in cutting down travel time and cost across the supply chain from the industrial centers to the ports.

Figure 10: ASEAN-6 transport infrastructure spending (road, rail, sea and airports)

In many aspects, Vietnam is still behind Vietnam is still behind the industry of the world and need to be improved in many things. However, with the growth of industry and a suitable policies, Vietnam and ASEAN countries are remarkable rising and become one of the potential region in the world for investing and developing. Vietnam and ASEAN need to cooperate and help together for a significant goal now and in the future.

Part B: - Descriptive Statistics Analysis As a consultant in the airline industry you have been asked to determine which form of advertising is most effective for a leading international airline: Direct Marketing (for example emails with sales promotion) or Online Advertising.

Descriptive Statistics: Compare the marketing strategies between Direct Marketing and Online Advertising In 2 table of sale from Direct Marketing and Online Advertising, the given data of both have quite same data set, however number of sales from Online Advertising is higher than Direct Marketing. So that, Online Advertising is more effective than Direct Marketing for the airline. 1. The measure of central tendency Direct Marketing Online Advertising Mean 105.4 107.37 Median 103.5 115 Based on the given data set, Mean of Direct Marketing is slightly higher than Median, so this mean the distribution is right skewed. In other the hand, for Online Advertising, Mean is lower than Median, describing the distribution is left skewed 2. The measure of variation

Q1 Q3 Range Sample Variance Standard Deviation

Direct Marketing 82 130 129 1013.21 31.83

Online Advertising 72 137 161 1596 39.95

At data set, 25% of the sales rate occur less than 82 units, while another 25% of the sales rate more than 130 units. Meanwhile, at Online Advertising, 25% of sales less than 72 units and 25% more than 137 units. The Sample Variance and Standard Deviation of Online Advertising is higher when compare to Direct Marketing (1596 ;39.95 and 1013.21 ;31.83).

In conclusion, after analyzing both number of sale from Direct Marketing and Online Advertising, the strategy of using Online Advertising is more effective than other. Nowadays, social media is getting more developing and more people use it, so online advertising is the best way to approach and connect with customers and clients....