Chapter 5 - Causal Claims PDF

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Chapter 5: Causal Claims Sharpen your analytical skills Three first parts of the critical thinking model that you should now understand: 1. Identify the author’s major conclusions/claims 2. Describe & evaluate supporting evidence CARPAS 3. Uncover Assumptions & values Causal Claims & Rival Causes Cause-and-effect relationships are the basis for decision-making and reasoned action. 

Certain events/factors (causes) lead to other outcomes (effects).

Why?  Cause-and- effect question

Causal Claims (explanation): Author’s interpretation of cause and effect relationships Example: soft drinks sales are down because consumers are increasingly concerned about high sugar levels in their diets  

We must carefully examine the authors’ causal claims (are the cause-effect relationships genuine or are there rival causal explanation that are causing the same event to occur?) If we are able to come up with other causes that led to the observed effect then the author’s claim becomes less convincing

In complex situations it is sometimes difficult to find reasonable and likely causes for certain outcomes. -

Causes can be elusive (difficult to find) Outcomes can also have multiple causes

The 3 types of rival causes: Rival Causes: the same evidence can be consistent with different interpretations. Alternative causes Argue that certain events/factors (causes) are responsible for bringing about other events/situations (effects) 1. Differences between groups o A specific outcome is caused by specific differences between groups o “Are there any other differences between these groups that may be relevant? 2. Correlation between characteristics o The observation that two factors seem to be closely related this does not necessarily mean that a cause and effect relationship actually exists between them o Direct causal relationship: When an author has taken a correlation between two factors and are claiming a causal link o Correlations may create a Reverse causation:  The linkage works in reverse

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when two factors, A and B, are correlated, it may be that A is causing B, but it is also possible that B is causing A BUT there can also be THIRD factor, so should not ever automatically assume that there is a correlation - causal link/ reverse causal link  Third factor effect/ Effect of a Third Variable: the two items may only have a high correlation because there is a third factor that is linked to both of them A correlation between two factors might be explained by one of three causal links:  There may be a direct causal relationship  A reverse causal relationship  No relationship, except through the presence of a third factor

3. Post hoc, ergo propter hoc fallacy o After this, therefore, because of this o X comes after Y so IT HAS TO BE caused by Y o This is a fallacy  an error in our reasoning.  We think that just because an event was followed by another event, that the first caused the second. THIS IS NOT ALWAYS TRUE”

Examples: -

Causal Explanation: Lower monthly fees at Econo Fitness (cause) have resulted in gym members (effect). Reverse Causation: the rise in members at Econo Fitness (cause) have led to economies of scale that allow the gym to lower its monthly fees per customer (effect). Rival Cause: other gyms’ fees (cause) have led to people seeking cheaper alternatives, such as Econo Fitness, which results in a rise in gym members (effect). Rival Cause: The need for change compared to the way traditional gyms are organized (cause) has resulted in a rise in Econo fitness’ gym members (effect) – people want something new.

Hill: Becoming the Boss New managers have misconceptions about:    

Formal authority Control – compliance versus commitment Relationships with individuals versus teams Operational focus versus addressing changes for future success

Henry Mintzberg: The Manager’s Job: Folklore and Fact “Reality is a marble cake”  This is Mintzberg’s way of saying that cause and effect relationships are multiple, and therefore difficult to identify Myth & Realities Myths about the manager’s job

MYTH The manager is a reflective, systematic planner

FACT Their activities are characterized by brevity, variety, and discontinuity

Manager’s roles Myth: 

Managers plan, organize, coordinate & control

Realities: Interpersonal roles    

Figurehead: A nominal leader without real power, head of an organization o Performs ceremonial duties Leader: Responsible for work of people in their unit o Establishes the atmosphere and motivates the subordinates Liaison (cooperation/relationship): contacts people outside the vertical chain of command o Developing and maintaining webs of contacts outside the organization

Informational roles    

Monitor: scanning environment for information o Collecting all types of info relevant to the organization Disseminator: passes privileged info to subordinates (i.e. nonmanagers) who would otherwise have no access to it. Spokesperson: passes info to people outside the organization

Decisional roles   

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Entrepreneur: seeks to improve organization and to adapt it to changing conditions in the environment. Disturbance-handler: responds to conflicts o deals with disputes/arguments and mediates the situation o The manager involuntarily responding to pressures Resource-allocator: decides who will get what resource Negotiator: deal-making; negotiates with individuals and dealing with other organizations defends business interests...