Causal arguments PDF

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Matthew Seacord...

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Phil 102-3009 2/27/18 #9021 Pg. 1

Causal Arguments – Are inductive arguments that involve a conclusion with a causal claim.

John Stewart Mill – Mill’s methods are basically a formalize statement are for many rational thinkers consider sensible. Method of Agreement – [Instance 1 – a, b, c is followed by E. Instance 2 – a, c, d is followed by E. Instance 3 – b, c followed by E. Instance 4 c, d, are followed by E.] Therefore, C probably causes E. Method of Difference – A factor that’s present in all occurrences in this phenomenon. We pick out some relevant factor that when it’s absent it doesn’t happen. [ Instance 1 – a, b, c followed by E Instance 2 – a, b not followed by E] Probably that C Causes E Method of Agreement + Difference (A joint method) [ Instance 1 – a, b, c followed by E Instance 2 – a, b, d followed by E Instance 3 – b, c not followed by E Instance 4 – b, d not followed by E] Therefore, it’s probably that A causes E Correlation Method -- Do two factors fluctuate together? [ Instance 1 – a, b, c correlated w/ E

Phil 102-3009 2/27/18 #9021 Pg. 2

Instance 2 – a, b, and increased c are correlated with an increase in E Instance 3 – a, b, and decreased c are correlated with a decrease in E] Therefore C is causally connected with E. FACTORS WE NEED TO WARY OF WHEN DRAWING CONCLUSIONS Problems 1. Relevant factors – I’m trying to study Illness X, all of the people who had X were Aries. 2. Not Identifying all relevant factors 3. Coincidence – Birthday example, in a room of 30 people, 2 of them share the same birthday 4. Post hoc, ergo propter hoc (After that, therefore because of that) – A comes before B, doesn’t mean that A causes B. W wore my superman underwear to the game and scored a goal. Then I wore it to the next game and scored 2 goals. Therefore, my superman underwear is lucky 5. Confusing cause and effect – A causes B. but it might be that B is doing the work. I.E. playing strategy games makes you smarter. OR, smart people might like to play strategy games....