Exercise 8 Time Series data analysis PDF

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Data analysis time series tema 8 analisis de datos international business 2020-2021 ejercicios resueltos evaluables de analisis de datos data analysis...

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EXERCISE 8. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

1. Consider the following time series. t

1

2

3

4

5

Yt

6

11

9

14

15

Develop an equation for the linear trend component of this time series. What is the forecast for t=6?

2. The enrollment data (in thousands) for a state college over the past six years are shown. Year

1

2

3

4

5

6

Enrollment

20.5

20.2

19.5

19.0

19.1

18.8

Develop the equation for the linear trend component of this time series. Comment on what is happening to enrollment at this institution.

3. Consider the following time series data. Quarter

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

1

4

6

7

2

2

3

6

3

3

5

6

4

5

7

8

Compute seasonal indexes for the four quarters and interpret the results

4. The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold) for a college textbook over the past three years follow.

Quarter

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

1

1690

1800

1850

2

940

900

1100

3

2625

2900

2930

4

2500

2360

2615

Compute seasonal indexes for the four quarters. When does the textbook publisher have the largest seasonal index? Does this result appear reasonable? Explain.

5. The following five years of data show the average minimum balance to avoid fees for checking accounts that pay interest (USA Today, December 6, 2005).

Date Spring 2000 Fall 2000 Spring 2001 Fall 2001 Spring 2002 Fall 2002 Spring 2003 Fall 2003 Spring 2004 Fall 2004 Spring 2005 Fall 2005

Balance ($) 1522.41 1659.63 1678.34 1707.55 1767.36 1866.17 2015.04 2257.82 2425.83 2086.93 2295.85 2294.61

a. Graph this time series. Does a linear trend appear to be present? b. Develop the equation for the linear trend component for the time series. c. Use the trend equation to forecast the minimum average balance to avoid account fees for Spring 2006....