FM245 Midterm PDF

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Fashion Forecasting - MIDTERM CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION TO FASHION FORECASTING Fashion Forecasting: predicting upcoming trends based on past and present styles ● INTERPRETATION, ANALYSIS of the motivation behind a trend, and EXPLANATION why the prediction is likely to happen Trend Report: account of something that already exists or has happened Fashion: dress/manners/habits of a period or group Style: appearance and features that create a look that is accepted by a majority Taste: opinionated  , what is or not appropriate for an occasion Trend: first signal of change in general direction/movement Forecasters take into account: ● Historical, contemporary and possible future fashion ● observations of movement and direction of change ● Social and cultural shifts ● Analysis of customer data WHY FORECAST FASHION? ฀ Business Success (5 elements) 1. PRODUCT 2. TIME (when) 3. PACE (how fast it hits the stores) 4. QUANTITIES 5. CUSTOMER WHO FORECASTS FASHION? - Trend forecasters: combine knowledge in fashion, history, customer data and intuition to guide product manufacturers and business professionals -

Business professionals: do trend forecast as part of their job. Designers, stylists, product developers, fashion students, etc.

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Fashion Forecasting specialists: trend spotters, consultants, researchers and forecasting services: 1. Doneger 2. Fashion Snoops 3. TrendStop

4. Carlin International 5. WGSN 6. Trend Union -

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7. Stylesight Companies: In-house forecasters 1. PANTONE 2. COTTON INCORPORATED Trendsetters/Influencers

WHERE TO FIND FORECASTING INFORMATION? - Runways, Fabric Fairs, Red Carpet Events, Street style - Fashion Media and Internet -

Museum exhibitions

WHEN DO FORECASTERS FIND FASHION IDEAS? - Fashion Weeks -

Showrooms Streetstyle Locations that host major politics, music, art, sports events (Ex. music festivals)

Long Term Forecasting (MACRO): 2+ YEARS (often 5ys); it’s generalized, not detailed; identify cultural shifts that represents the mood of the era Short Term Forecasting (MICRO): under 2ys; more specific; it can be used to create a product. Themes and concepts developed, look, silhouettes, details, design features Seasonal Forecasting: 12 to 18 months in advance (SS/FW) HOW TO FORECAST? (be aware, observe, intuitive, have good memory) 1. RESEARCH (sourcing information) 2. EDIT (data collection) 3. INTERPRET AND ANALIZE (interpretation of facts, analysis of data) 4. PREDICT 5. COMMUNICATE - Skills: Reporting, writing, public speaking, sales skills WHAT does it include? 1. Theme: umbrella where all the trends fall 2. Color: Color story

3. Textiles and materials 4. Looks: what’s in style a. There will also be a COPY, a writing describing the forecast CHAPTER 2 – FASHION HISTORY Zeitgeist: “spirit of the times” current state of culture, expression of the present - Era determined by a mixture of historical, social, psychological and aesthetic factors - Changes in attitudes and lifestyles EXAMINE THE PAST, ASSESS THE PRESENT, PREDICT THE FUTURE 1860-1899 VICTORIAN FASHION AND CHARLES WORTH -

KEY WORKDS: couture, conservative, restricted movement, rigid

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“LOOKS”: Victorian dresses, very rigid men look

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PEOPLE: Queen Victoria

- End of American Civil War and slavery

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CHARLES WORTH: starts couture

- French Revolution

using his ideas -

Art: Realism/Impressionism

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WOMEN: exaggerated silhouettes, restricted  movement: corsets, hoops, bustles

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MEN: formal and rigid, conservative – walking sticks, hats, pocket watches

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Moving forward: mass production, women will work outside home, more access to fashion trends (magazines, photography), department stores, middle class growing

1900-1919 EDWARDIAN PERIOD - WW1

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KEY WORKDS: WW1, ready to wear, machinery, “losing it up” (more movement), Gibson Girl

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“LOOKS”: military, Gibson girl,

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PEOPLE: King Edward

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USA: Ford Motor - WW1, increase in immigration ฀   disparate rich and poor

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ART: Cubism, Expressionism; Van Gogh, Picasso, Cezanne, Matisse

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Events: invention of cars, machinery, READY TO WEAR – mass production

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WOMEN: 1. “Gibson girl” – “S” shaped silhouettes 2. Corsets REMOVED 3. Skirt rose to mid ankle 4. Pants adopted for sports

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MEN: men losing it up, relaxed tweed and stripes, trench coats

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Moving forward: more machinery, industrial advancement, political power shifting, haute couture elevated, modern type of woman, celebrity influence

1920-1929 ROARING 20s -THE FLAPPER -

KEY WORDS: Flapper, seasonal RTW, separates, Coco Chanel: LBD & jersey knits, dramatic hair/accessories (pearls), prohibition banned, GREAT GATSBY

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“LOOKS”: Coco Chanel, Flapper, Gangster

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PEOPLE: Coco Chanel

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USA: women for the right to vote, ENDED in the Stock Market Crash (lead to the 30s)

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ART: Surrealism (Dali), films with sound, JAZZ

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WOMEN:

1. THE FLAPPER: free women, pleasure seeking and inhibited 2. Hemline rise above the knee, neutral waist, MIX AND MATCH, blouses/jersey knits 3. Short dramatic hair and accessories (drop earrings, pears) 4. LBD -

MEN: sack suits with vests, looser jackers, sportwear, thin moustaches, bow ties, hair was sleek

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Moving Forward: Business of SELLING fashion, increased purchasing power, knockoffs

1930-1945 GREAT DEPRESSION - WW2 -

KEY WORDS: Great Depression/Economic crisis ฀   more jobs for women outside home, unemployment, suburban communities because of car and commuting, men: structured

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“LOOKS”: conservative, evening dress celebrity

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PEOPLE: Franklin Roosevelt

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ART: Hollywood movies, radio and TV broadcasts

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WOMEN: 1. Conservative suits, ladylike dresses 2. Short supply of fashion 3. Natural waist silhouette 4. Evening dresses

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MEN: 1. Influenced by military styling: double breasted sailor 2. High waisted pants 3. WIDE suits, structured shoulders 4. Polo shorts and sportwear

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Moving forward: roles  and values shifted, less  formal lifestyle, people more free with their money, in-store experience emerges.

1946-1959 NEW LOOK AND FASHION CONFORMITY

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KEY WORDS: Rock n roll, Post-war rebuilding, Return to family roles, racial segregation, skirts and leather jackets

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“LOOKS”: Dior girl, rock n roll guy, ivy league student

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PEOPLE: Queen Elizabeth, Elvis, Christian Dior, Marilyn Monroe, Ivy League

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ART: Elvis, TV as main form of Entertainment (ex. Grease)

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WOMEN: 1. “New Look” introduced by CD: full skirts and e nhanced waists 2. Hats and stilettos 3. Pants and jeans not accepted 4. Rock changes fashion: poodle skirt MEN:

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1. “Ivy League”: conservative suits and button-down shirts 2. LATE 50S: rebellious looks, leather jackets, t-shirts -

Moving Forward: baby boomers, college accessible, younger generation questions parents’ values, civil rights, global garment production

1960-1969 MOD AND YOUTH REVOLUTION (4 TYPES) -

KEY WORDS: Baby Boomers, Rebellion Through clothing, racial movement, women’s  , HIPPIE,  SPACE  ONSERVATIVE, MOD equality, unisex fashion, style tribes – C

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“LOOKS”: CONSERVATIVE (Jackie O, JFK) – MOD (Beatles) – HIPPIE - SPACE

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PEOPLE: JFK and Jackie O, MLK “I have a Dream”,

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ART: The Beatles, Andy Warhol, Jimi Hendrix

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EVENTS: Apollo Landing, Vietnam War, birth control – women’s equality, self-expressions

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Style Tribes: people wearing distinctive looks to demonstrate their association (Mod)

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CONSERVATIVE FASHION 1. Women ▪ Fitted dresses, hemline below the knee ▪ Classic and polished look

▪ Pillbox hat 2. Men ▪ Clean look (influenced by JFK): sport jacket, button down jacket, narrow suits and skinny ties ▪ Short hair style -

MOD STYLE 1. Women: Twiggy, mini skirts Bouffant hairstyles Wild patterns and bright colors High knee “gogo” boots 2. Men: Edwardian styles ▪ Longer hair ▪ Glasses

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HIPPIE STYLE: “free” style worn by both men and women 1. Natural fibers, tie dye 2. Bell bottom jeans 3. Gypsy styles, nothing tight: tunics, no bra 4. Head bands, afro and long hairstyles

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SPACE AGE STYLE: 1. futuristic fabric, metallic colors 2. geometric silhouettes, circular because of Apollo 11 3. Metal, paper, plastic

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Moving forward: individuality, unisex, European influence, social and economic instability, women rebelling

1970- 1979 STREET FASHION AND THE “ME GENERATION”

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KEY WORDS: individuality, punk, self-expression, disco, pop culture, computer technology, designer jeans

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“LOOKS”: Still hippie look, casual and classic dressing (denim, Ralph Lauren), punk look, disco look

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EVENTS: Antiwar, Women had careers, Divorce, First Gay Pride march, computer technology, airplanes

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PEOPLE: Vivian Westwood is INTRODUCED

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ART: Star Wars, punk rock and heavy metal music, disco dancing, 9 pop culture tv

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WOMEN: 1. Mini, maxi, midi skirts 2. Pants are incorporated again: palazzo, pantsuit 3. Designer NAME jeans: tight and high rise

1980- 1989 POSTMODERNISM AND TIME OF EXCESS -

KEY WORDS: POP CULTURE, power suits, big shoulders, commuter white sneakers, neon

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“LOOKS”: commuter white sneakers – fitness look,

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PEOPLE: Lady Diana, Prince Charles, Michael Jackson, Madonna

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ART: MTV, Pop starts, rap and pop music, street dancing, video games, supermodels

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EVENTS: economic growth, AIDS epidemic, computer use,

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WOMEN:

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1. Tailored suits, powerful shoulders 2. Commuter white sneakers 3. Fitness video look 4. “The bigger the better” MEN: 1. Tailored sharp suits 2. Over the top look

3. Miami vice inspired suit shirt

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Moving Forward: economic fluctuation, industrialized markets, gender roles shift

1990-1999 GLOBAL FASHION AND INTERNET EXPLOSION -

KEY WORDS: “everything goes”

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“LOOKS”: 1. CASUAL STYLE: Banana Republic, GAP 2. GRUNGE STYLE: alternative rock. Jeans, converse, flannels 3. GOTH/INDUSTRIAL PUNK: dark leather looks, corsets, metal studding 4. URBAN LOOK: oversized, visible underwear, “bling” jewelry 5. PREPPY STYLE: sweaters, blazer, cardigans; fuckboy 6. VINTAGE STYLE: resurgence of hippie

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PEOPLE: Spice Girls, Friends, 90210, Bel Air prince

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EVENTS: Worldwide globalization, international terrorism, technological advances

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ART: hip hop, alternative, reality tv, entertainment systems

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Minimalism and casualness

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Dolphin shorts for guys

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Private label merchandise, outlets, mega-malls

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Moving forward: fashion no longer dictated from the top, market segmentation, larger interest in fashion, technologic leads to fashion change

2000-2010 NEW MILLENNIUM AND SOCIAL NETWORKING: - KEY WORDS: Pop culture, celebrities, fast fashion, sustainability introduced, social -

media PEOPLE: Lady Gaga, Eminem, Sex and The City, Kardashians

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ART: Music Festivals, social media, movies/reality TV, iPod, techno music, Harry Potter EVENTS: environmental issues, global recession, technology boom, fast fashion, same sex marriage

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All gender clothing, mismatched looks, neutrals/minimalism, skinny silhouettes, athleisure

2010-2020 THE TWENTY -TENS AND GLOBAL UNREST - KEY WORDS: politic division, LGBT -

PEOPLE: Lady Gaga, Eminem, Sex and The City, Kardashians ART: Breaking Bad, OITNB, Gossip Girl EVENTS: nuclear conflicts, China as second larger economy, political divide in the US, Global Warming, LGTB increased, 3D Technology, Virtual Reality Athleisure as everyday wear Technical textiles Skinny silhouettes Moving Forward: social and cultural shifts Social media importance

CHAPTER 3 – FASHION MOVEMENT THEORIES OF FASHION ADOPTION: 1. TRICKLE DOWN/Downward Flow: Oldest theory of fashion adoption. People at the top adopt a style. Once the lower class duplicates the look, new things come up to maintain social position of power. 2. TRICKLE ACROSS/Horizontal Flow: from similar social levels, all things come out at the same time. Ex. fast fashion retailers copy at the same time, or they hit the market the same time designers do. 3. TRICKLE UP/Upward Flow: the opposite, designers are inspired by the street, not by the runway. FASHION CYCLE: life span of a style or a trend

1. Introduction: ● mood or idea - innovator adopts the trend and introduces it - style seen as possible emerging trend; designers introduce styles, colors, details 2. Rise: ● Styles are accepted by more people, copied by retailers - Planning is initiated for mass market - Price drops, quantity increases, sales increase 3. Culmination: ● Height of popularity and use - Accepted throughout multiple markets (Gucci and F21)Possibility of style becoming a classic) 4. Decline: ● Repetition of looks, you get sick of it - Market saturation - MD and price incentivesProduction slows 5. Obsolesce: ● Lack of interest, No retail potential at any price Pendulum Swing: movement of fashion between extremes; multiple styles of a trend at the same time (ex. jeans: neutral waistline, lower, extremely lower, high waisted jeans) Fashion Curve: ● Fad: rapid widely accepted look and rapidly disappears (often in accessories) ● Classic: look that remains in fashion for a long time. Timeless silhouette (ex. LBD, Black blazer), simple design that satisfies basic needs. CHAPTER 4 – SOCIAL AND CULTURAL INFLUENCES ● Target Audience: segment who may adopt new products and ideas at a specific time ● Consumer segment: group with similar demographics and characteristics (how many, where do they live, how old they are, how much they’ll spend, what motivates them? Demographics: age, sex, education, family size Geographic studies: where people live, population in each area Psychographics: tastes, values, attitudes, fears Population: total number of people, forecasters consider growth rate and age Social influences: changes in time availability, casual lifestyles, greater celebrity influence, women status, more ways of communication, more accessibility to transportation, educational opportunities ● Psychological influences: curiosity, confidence, place in society, need for adventure or disruption ● Global Economics: new markets, new potential customers, global manufacturing increases competition ● ● ● ● ●

● Politics: elections and political figures (Michelle Obama, Jackie O) ● Science and Technology ● Environmental influences: sustainability, ethics, resources, working conditions, waste management ● Unexpected Events: wars, natural disasters, terrorism Research Consultants: ● Supply recommendations and solutions ● Conduct research to identify emerging movements ● Obtain relevant data for analysis ● Firms: Future Foundation, The Intelligence Group CHAPTER 5 – MARKET ANS SALES RESEARCH FOR FORECASTING Research: Facts, marketing statistics, sales records ● Organizations conduct research on retailing and consumer behaviors ● To enhance brand awareness and marketing opportunities, create products to meet needs Government Organizations: 1. US Census Bureau: counts every resident in the US. Source of data about economy and population. Every 10 ys. 2. US Department of Commerce: concerned in promoting economic growth. Gathers info for business and government decision making IN-HOUSE RESEARCH: ● Data Sharing: people in the industry share data that is specific to their products ● Sales Strategy: retailer and manufacturer based on data (when was it sold, how many, what sizes, what colors, what and when MDs were made) ● Observation: watching, photographing people and recording on their behavior. Ex. Refinery29, Bill Cunningham, Hype Beast ● Questionnaires and Surveys: to understand and identify potential customers ● Focus groups: representation of your target customers WEB AND INTERNET ● Viral Marketing: marketing practices that use social network to spread the word: videos, web sites, blogs, texts ● Social Media ● Bloggers: people who post commentary or images about a particular subject

MARKET RESEARCH FIRMS: conduct studies and provide information that can benefit forecasters, analyze and project marketing opportunities HOW TO INTERPRET RESEARCH: ● Identify pattern signals and emerging ideas ● Rank information and edit less significant data ● Offer solutions CHAPTER 6 – THEME THEME: topic for a fashion forecasting that gas a unifying, dominant idea ● Develop the idea: 1. Look at current trend or event 2. Anticipate the trend/event evolution 3. Identify patterns related to the theme 4. Repetition of similar identify the theme - Inspiration: current events, economic and political climate, celebrity influences, cultural events, lifestyle. There should be something that makes the theme relevant to the time. STEP 1) FORMULATE AN IDEA OR CONCEPT - Scientific approach: collecting tangible data from: past trend information, new -

technology, books, historical records, trade shows, consultants Artistic approach: relies on creativity to access and record: personal knowledge,

memory, observations, opinions, intuition STEP 2) COLLECT IMAGES TO ILUSTRATE THE THEME - Photos, sketches, internet images, runway shows, ads STEP 3) EDIT, INTERPRET, ANALYZE AND PREDICT THE THEME - Editing: sort and identify patterns in the research and data - Interpreting/Analyzing: identify CAUSES, key factors and possible results, investigate what fuels the upcoming trend -

Predicting: problem solving and planning by seeing new needs and behaviors. What’s gonna happen? STEP 4) CREATE A TITLE - Must capture the spirit of the theme and be concise STEP 5) CREATE A TAGLINE - Phrase, popular buzz word to explain the concept

STEP 6) IDENTIFY THE MOOD - What sort of emotions are desired STEP 7) WRITE THE STORY FOR THE THEME - Story: spoken text of the forecast. COPY. 1. Narrative: based on the inspirational and artistic influence. Fantasy or fiction 2. Descriptive: based on non-fiction data, real situations and information. Facts, origins of the idea, research.

CHAPTER 7 – COLOR COLOR FORECASTING: gathering and understanding information to predict color for upcoming seasons Color Evolution: occurs season to season. Takes into consideration change of direction and the speed of change Color Palette: range of colors that work well together Color Story: palette of colors used to connect ideas Color Theory: study of color and its meaning in art and design Color Scheme: group of color that complement each other Color Wheel: Representation of colors arranged by chromatic relationship - Primary (colors at their basic essence), Secondary  (mix of two primaries), Tertiary  (mix -

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