LETTERS FROM ABBOTTABAD: BIN LADIN SIDELINED? PDF

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LETTERS FROM ABBOTTABAD: BIN LADIN SIDELINED?
Resumen doc Letters from Abbottabad...

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LETTERS&FROM&ABBOTTABAD:&BIN&LADIN&SIDELINED?& ! REGIONAL) JIHADI) GROUPS) AQI)

Leader)

AQAP)

Abu!Basir! (Nasir!al+ Wuhayshi)!

TehrikFeF Taliban) Pakistan) (TTP))

Hakimullah! Mahsud!

AlFShabab)

Mukhtar! Abu!al+ Zubayr!

IRAN)

Not!an!ally!

PAKISTAN)

No! institutional! support!

Strategy)of)the) group)

Negative) reaction)of) AQC) !

Abu!Mus´ab! Loss!of!tribal! al+Zarqawi! support!in!Iraq!!

Declaring! Islamic!state!in! Yemen! Attack!Yemeni! government!&! security!forces! +Indiscriminate! attacks!against! Muslims! +Violate!Islamic! Law! +target!Muslims! in!mosques!&! marketplaces!

No! expansionist! plan! !

Strategy)AQC) wanted)

Adam) Gadahn)

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+Advised!AQC! to!publicly! dissociate! itself!from!AQI! +wanted!to! invoke!spirit! of!Islamic! tolerance!but! AQI!attacked! catholic! church!(plan! thwarted)! !

Refocus!on! attacking!USA! ! +!Encouraged! attack!on!oil! infraestructure! Atiyyatullah!&! +focus!on! ! al+Libi!write! operations! to!leader!on! inside!the!USA! displeasure! (instead!of! with!group´s! Yemen)!! ideology,! methods!&! behavior! Threatened!to! take!public! measures! unless!reform! A!formal! Focus!on! ! merger!would! construction! prevent! and! investment!&! development! foreign!aid!in! in!Somalia! Somalia!

Por!governance! Inflexible! administration! of!hudud! (deterrent! penalties!for! certain!crimes)! Negotiations! over!release!of! detained!jihadis! &!families,! including!bin! Ladin´s!f.! !

Campaign!of! threats,!taking! hostages!&! indirect! negotiations! btw!AQ!&!Iran! !

+not!declare! ! Islamic!State!of! Somalia! ! +AQ!refused! unity! ! !

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⇒! The! relationship! of! AQC! under! the! leadership! of! bin! Ladin! is! NOT! in! sinc! on! the! operational! level!with!it´s!affiliates! ⇒! Bin! Ladin! enjoyed! little! control! over! either! groups! affiliated! with! AQ! in! its! name! or! so+called! fellow!travelers! ⇒! Inability!to!exercise!control!over!their!actions!&!public!statements! ⇒! Affiliates! sought! Bin! Ladin´s! blessing! on! symbolic! matters,! such! as! declaring! Islamic! state! &! wanted!formal!unión!to!acquire!AQ!Brand! ⇒! On!operational!front,!the!affiliates!did!not!consult!with!BL!or!were!not!prepared!to!follow!his! directives! ⇒! BL!in!his!letters!makes!it!clear!he!was!struggling!to!exercise!even!a!minimal!influence! ! !

WHERE?) ARAB)WORLD)

AFGHANISTAN)

BIN)LADIN´S)STRATEGY) ! WHAT?) AQ!should!focus!on!media!outreach!&!guidance! Media!should!incide!people!to!rebel!against!rules! Educate! &! warn! muslim! people! from! half! solutions! (secular! political! process! such! as! forming!political!parties)! Continue!to!fight!against!USA! If!USA!is!weak,!enables!Muslims!to!revolt! against! rulers!with!USA!support!

! ! THREE)DIFFERENT)SENIOR)LEADER)POSITIONS)WITHIN)AQ)ABOUT)RELATIONSHIP)WITH) AFFILIATES) ! WHO?) 1.! Adam)Gadahn)letter) ) “the)principled”) 2.)Anonymous)letter) 3.)Bin)Ladin)

STRATEGY) +Should! have! relationship! with! those! that! remain! faithful! to! AQ! principles! +urged! senior! leaders! to! declare! distance/dissociate! from! groups! whose!leaders!dont!consult!with!AQ!but!act!in!its!name! Inclusion! of! regional! jihadi! groups! contributes! to! AQ! growth! &! expansion! Maintain!communication! Urge!restraint!! Provide!advice! NO!granting!formal!unity!with!AQ!

! How!might!centralization!of!global!jihadi!media!&!operational!activities!serve!BL!strategy?!He!would! partner!with!them!only!if!they!agreed!to!play!by!AQC´s!rules!(memorándum)!! ! BL! looked! for! alternative! geographical! arenas! to! facilitate! the! continuation! of! external! work! in! Western!countries! ! Inmediate! plan:! dispatch! Yunis! to! Yemen! or! Algeria! or! sorrounding! áreas! and! all! regional! leaders! would!have!to!give!him!their!full!cooperation! ! Centralizing!the!public!statements!&!activities!or!regional!jihadi!groups!is!in!the!interest!of!efficiently! advancing!external!operations! ! !

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Death! of! Obama:! vice! president! unprepared! would! asume! presidency,! USA! crisis! mode,! impacto! n! course!of!war! ! BL!against!“lone!Wolf”!operations!as!“new!age”!jihad! He!wanted!methodical!planning!of!suicide!operations!! ! BIN!LADIN´S!CONCERNS:! ! §฀! The! flexible! understanding! of! tatarrus,! which! resulted! in! unnecessary! deaths! of! Muslim! civilians!“colateral!damage”!! §฀! The! jihadis! have! lost! considerable! sympathy! from! the! Muslim! public! when! the! mistakes! of! jihadis!were!exploited!by!the!enemy!distorting!the!image!of!jihadis!in!the!eyes!of!the!umma´s! general!public=!seperating!from!umma´s!popular!bases! §฀! Lack!of!political!acumen! §฀! Inability!to!win!public!support! §฀! Poorly!planned!operations!which!resulted!in!deaths!of!thousands!of!Muslims! ! ! THE!FRAMING!OF!AN!AQC!AS!AN!ORGANIZATION!IN!CONTROL!OF!REGIONAL!AFFILIATES!REFLECTS! A!CONCEPTUAL!CONSTUCTION!BY!OUTSIDERS!RATHER!THAN!THE!MESSY!REALITY!OF!INSIDERS! ! ! ! ! !

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