M Bani L Jones Group Speed Ventures Case PDF

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Mohamed A Bani Lorenzo Jones 9/13/2020 Professor Kate Frear MNO 6201 | Speed Ventures Case Questions Group Assignment

Question 1 Answer : The initial decision was predetermined even before we discussed it. We both decided that Speed Ventures should race. So we took into consideration 5 reasonings. First, the money, Second, the data although it was incomplete and inconclusive. Third, the opinion of the expert (Robin Burns) that Speed Ventures must race. Fourth, for the excitement and the adventure that comes with competing. Fifth, the risk of demolishing the company’s name and reputation if they pull out. Although we discussed that there are missing points and data. One idea we had was that if we cut the Temperature/Gasket failure Curve in two longitudinal halves right on 65 degrees (One relative half shown in the chart below) we saw that the colder the temperature the worse the outcome is. But the prize was lucrative, Reputation was at stake, Expert opinion was to race and we went with it.

Question 2 Answer : We had a mutual agreement that Speed Ventures should race. We both start stressing the same points that the chances are in favour of winning. We looked at the prize before the process or how to get there. Data was misleading, maybe on

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purpose. We both were yes men to each other, no one of us played the Devil's Advocate. We completely ignored Jessie’s advice of not to race because of our prejudice that he was a college dropout essentially. We both contributed to the discussion but it was mainly a one way stream of stressing the points that Speed Ventures should race. We tried to rationalize (as a defense mechanism) and come up with excuses for previous failures like what happened exactly to the Gasket. Did it blow up? Did it melt? Should we or shouldn't we trust the data? Question 3 Answer : Our decision was (we believe) rational, because of the provided data although manipulated and incomplete. We looked at the players in the case we found: - Four individuals. Pat,Chris,Jessie and Robin. Pat and Chris were unsure and indecisive; we assumed both were of Type B Personality. Robin likely was of Type A personality and an expert as he was pushing to race and very outspoken with his “expert opinion”. Jessie although an expert we did not fully trust his opinion due to his educational status. - Money and the company’s reputation blinded us from asking for more data or to consider pulling out from the race. - We discussed the worst case scenario, we did not think it would lead to such a catastrophic event. We decided that even if the gasket blows up, they have nothing to lose they can build again and try for next season. We guess we did not look at it as a make or break case. Related to Traps in Decision Making, we think we fill in a few of them. We think we fill in the Estimating and Forecasting Trap precisely the Overconfidence Trap, the Recallability Trap, and the Confirming-Evidence Trap. We trusted the incomplete data so much that we were willing to risk it, we recalled the previous events of finishing the race and winning top five, we lacked the estimating and forecasting power and knowledge. Question 4 Answer : Given all the information we know now we think Speed Ventures should absolutely not race. Because the complete data shows a strong relation between the ambient Temperature and Gasket/Engine failure, 4 times when the temperature was less than 65 degrees Speed Ventures faced failures and they have no data on 40 degrees. Previous incomplete data favoured them to when but, carefully studied and complete data showed that infact Speed Ventures have 0.004 in one chance to win it. In fact they will make more money, save the engine, save the company’s name if they were to pull out. We think the take home points are: 1- Always seek complete unbiased data. 2- Think about the problem carefully and address all concerning issues. 3- Take into consideration the Traps in Decision Making.

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4- We should not think about the goal before the process and how to achieve that goal. 5- We should never surround ourselves with yes men or let pressure from other entities control our thinking or decision making because the decision should be for the greater good. 6- We should think more about safety and security.

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