Moodys Report 2018 - Global Default Rate PDF
| Title | Moodys Report 2018 - Global Default Rate |
|---|---|
| Course | Accounting And Financial Management |
| Institution | University of East Anglia |
| Pages | 17 |
| File Size | 1.1 MB |
| File Type | |
| Total Downloads | 19 |
| Total Views | 121 |
Summary
Global Default Rate...
Description
Global
US
7%
Europe
Rating
Global
US
Europe
Aaa
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Aa
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
A
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Baa
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3%
Ba
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2%
B
0.6%
0.5%
0.9%
1%
Caa_C
5.0%
4.9%
2.7%
0%
IG
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
SG
2.3%
2.8%
1.3%
ALL
1.1%
1.6%
0.6%
6% 5% 4%
US_Loan
US_Bond
9%
Rating
8%
Aaa
7%
Aa
0.0%
0.0%
6%
A
0.0%
0.0%
5%
Baa
0.0%
0.0%
Ba
0.0%
0.0%
4%
3%
US Bond
US Loan
0.0%
2%
B
1%
Caa_C
0.6%
1.3%
11.3%
19.2%
0%
IG
0.0%
0.0%
SG
3.9%
1.9%
ALL
1.7%
1.7%
Global_Actual
Global_Baseline_Forecast
Global_Pessimistic_Forecast
Global_Optimistic_Forecast
16% 14%
12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
US_Actual
US_Baseline_Forecast
US_Pessimistic_Forecast
US_Optimistic_Forecast
16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
Europe_Actual
16% 14% 12% 10%
8% 6% 4% 2%
0%
Europe_Baseline_Forecast
Europe_Pessimistic_Forecast
Europe_Optimistic_Forecast
Bond_and_Loan_Actual
Bond_and_Loan_Baseline_Forecast
Bond_and_Loan_Pessimistic_Forecast
Bond_and_Loan_Optimistic_Forecast
18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
16%
Bond_Only_Actual
Bond_Only_Baseline_Forecast
Bond_Only_Pessimistic_Forecast
Bond_Only_Optimistic_Forecast
14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2%
0%
Loan_Only_Actual
Loan_Only_Baseline_Forecast
Loan_Only_Pessimistic_Forecast
Loan_Only_Optimistic_Forecast
1/31/2019
2/28/2019
3/31/2019
4/30/2019
5/31/2019
6/30/2019
7/31/2019
8/31/2019
9/30/2019
10/31/2019
11/30/2019
12/31/20
Bond&Loan
3.0%
3.2%
2.9%
2.9%
3.0%
2.8%
2.6%
2.9%
3.3%
3.2%
3.4%
3.5%
Bond Only
2.9%
2.6%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
2.2%
2.2%
2.4%
2.4%
2.6%
2.6%
2.4%
Loan Only
1.4%
1.5%
1.7%
1.7%
2.0%
2.2%
2.5%
2.5%
2.7%
3.1%
3.4%
3.7%
Actual
Baseline_Forecast*
Pessimistic_Forecast
Optimistic_Forecast
12% 10% 8%
6% 4% 2%
0%
Actual
Baseline_Forecast
Pessimistic_Forecast
Optimistic_Forecast
2,500 2,000 1,500
1,000 500 0
1/31/2019
Unemployment* HY Spread
HY Spread
7/31/2019
10/31/2019
1/31/2020
4/30/2020
7/31/2020
10/31/2020
1/31/2021
4/30/20
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.5
4.0
4.2
4.5
4.7
502.5
512.6
532.3
582.8
689.7
825.8
945.9
980.7
833.9
743.6
1/31/2022
4/30/2022
7/31/2022
10/31/2022
7/31/2021
Unemployment*
4/30/2019
3.6
10/31/2021
1/31/2023
4/30/2023
7/31/2023
10/31/202
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
683.0
639.6
616.7
590.5
566.9
552.0
544.9
538.6
530.9
519.0
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
1.9% 4.5%
Services: Business
2.8% 4.0%
Retail
3.2% 3.4%
Consumer goods: durable*
3.2%
Services: Consumer
3.7% 3.1%
Metals & Mining
1.5% 3.1%
Wholesale*
3.0%
Consumer goods: non-durable
1.8%
Hotel, Gaming, & Leisure
2.9%
Environmental Industries*
2.9%
4.5%
2.8%
Transportation: Cargo
2.2% 2.7% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals High Tech Industries Telecommunications
1.8% 2.4%
Automotive
1.1% 2.4%
Containers, Packaging, & Glass
3.0% 2.3% 2.5% 2.2% 1.9% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.8%
Media: Broadcasting & Subscription Energy: Oil & Gas Capital Equipment Media: Diversified & Production Chemicals, Plastics, & Rubber Aerospace & Defense
0.9% 1.6%
Construction & Building
1.9% 1.6%
Beverage, Food, & Tobacco
1.2% 0.8%
Forest Products & Paper*
0.7%
FIRE: Finance Energy: Electricity*
Transportation: Consumer FIRE: Real Estate Utilities: Oil & Gas Banking Sovereign & Public Finance Utilities: Electric Utilities: Water*
6% 5.8%
Media: Advertising, Printing & Publishing
FIRE: Insurance
5%
1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
US Europe
From\To
Aaa
Aa1
Aa2
Aa3
A1
A2
A3
Baa1
Baa2
Baa3
Ba1
Ba2
Ba3
B1
B2
B3
Caa1
Caa2
Caa3
Ca-C
WR
DEF
92.5
3.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.8
0.0
Aa1
0.0 100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Aa2
0.0
84.4
6.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.3
0.0
Aaa
5.6
Aa3
0.0
0.7
7.5
82.1
6.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
0.0
A1
0.0
0.0
3.8
5.8
82.0
3.8
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.8
0.0
A2
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
11.4
80.4
2.7
1.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.7
0.0
A3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
6.8
80.2
7.0
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.1
0.0
Baa1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
8.1
83.1
4.9
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.9
0.0
Baa2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.5
8.6
79.3
5.4
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.2
0.0
Baa3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.4
15.3
75.0
2.4
1.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.0
0.0
Ba1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.8
15.2
63.5
6.1
1.4
2.5
1.8
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.2
0.0
Ba2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.4
10.7
70.9
2.3
2.3
1.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.4
0.0
Ba3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
2.7
10.2
68.8
2.1
1.2
3.0
0.6
0.0
0.3
0.0
10.5
0.0
B1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
2.3
9.9
64.1
7.2
4.6
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
10.5
0.0
B2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
3.1
11.9
65.6
5.1
1.7
0.7
0.3
0.0
10.2
1.0
B3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
3.6
7.5
64.3
5.9
2.1
0.3
0.3
14.9
0.5
Caa1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.6
1.0
6.9
62.9
10.4
1.9
0.5
14.4
1.3
Caa2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
1.9
5.5
66.5
6.7
1.1
16.4
1.5
Caa3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
3.4
14.2
43.1
5.9
20.6
12.3
Ca-C
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
3.5
10.6
41.2
14.1
29.4
B3
Aaa
Aa1
Aa2
Aa3
A1
A2
A3
Baa1
Baa2
Baa3
Ba1
Ba2
Ba3
Caa1
Caa2
Caa3
Ca-C
Aaa
From\To
86.8
4.2
4.3
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
B1
0.0
B2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.6
WR
0.0
DEF
Aa1
0.5
82.5
7.0
2.6
1.3
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.4
0.0
Aa2
0.4
1.2
81.9
7.4
2.7
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.3
0.0
Aa3
0.2
0.2
0.9
80.2
7.6
3.8
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.2
0.0
A1
0.1
0.0
0.5
3.6
82.4
6.0
1.8
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.6
0.0
A2
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.6
3.4
83.8
5.7
1.6
0.9
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.2
0.0
A3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.9
5.4
81.8
5.0
2.0
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.6
0.0
Baa1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.7
7.5
81.6
4.1
1.3
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.7
0.0
Baa2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
1.5
6.8
81.6
3.7
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
0.0
Baa3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.6
1.2
8.4
78.6
3.1
1.3
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.6
0.1
Ba1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.5
2.1
10.0
71.0
3.8
2.5
1.6
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.7
0.2
Ba2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
2.9
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