Paper 2- Median Is Not The Message PDF

Preview

Summary

This paper discusses assessing mean, median, and mode while looking at data and how they differ...

Description

Throughout school, students are taught to focus on the median, mean, and mode when assessing data. While these can be very helpful tools, focusing on just these three things may not always be the smartest way to approach a data set or situation, as shown in Stephen Jay Gould’s article, “Median Isn’t the Message.” Throughout the article, Gould talks about how he was diagnosed with Mesothelioma and was told by the doctors that there was a median mortality rate of eight months. Now, people who tend to hear this news automatically jump to the conclusion that they have exactly eight months to live when that is not at all the case. The median is a halfway point in a data set which means that there were several cases that people did not make it to eight months but on the other hand, there were several cases that made it past the eight month mark. Throughout the article, Gould uses his personal experience to inform readers about the importance of gaining knowledge about statistics. Gould’s statistical knowledge, desire to learn, as well as optimism contributed greatly to being one of those cases that made it far past that looming eight month mark. There are several things that people should understand about statistics: “they only apply to a prescribed set of circumstances” (Gould, 4) and the distribution variation needs to be taken into account. You cannot solely look at the mean, median, or mode to assess data. It is difficult to give an accurate estimate as to when someone will die, especially when they have been diagnosed with a disease because the disease affects each individual differently. There are so many factors that need to be taken into account such as the type of treatment, the doctors, the patient’s optimism, the patient’s knowledge about the disease as well as approach to recovery, the patient’s support

system, etc. A simple mean, median, or mode cannot simply take all of these factors into account which is why understanding statistics comes into play. The main message of this article is to show readers the power and importance of understanding statistics and being able to apply it to everyday life. There are several statistical concepts addressed in the article such as median, mean, and mode, but the main statistical concept is distribution variance. Distribution variance is a measurement of a distribution spread that determines how random data differs from an expected value. In Gould’s case, the expected value is eight months. After extensive research, he discovered that the distribution for lifespan after being diagnosed with Mesothelioma was strongly right skewed, meaning there was a good chance that he could live past eight months! The variance distribution is essential when looking at data because it accounts for more factors. In Gould’s case, those who were diagnosed earlier, had the best treatment, care, and doctors, were optimistic, and had a strong support system tended to live well past the median eight month mark. With all of these factors being in favor of Gould, he had a very high chance of living past the median of eight months, giving him hope to continue fighting. Distribution variance is the main statistical concept that is discussed in the article because people who don’t know much about statistics seem to entirely forget or dismiss the importance of distribution variance. When looking at data like this, it is essential to take all factors into account, not just look at the median. Looking at distribution variance takes these factors into account and can give a more accurate idea as to what the outcome will likely be. Gould realized that statistical distributions “only apply to a prescribed set of circumstances” (Gould, 4) and different circumstances can alter the results, which can be good or bad.

Because he had all the factors in his favor, his circumstances were very good. Gould is very informed regarding the topic of statistics, and because of this, he uses his knowledge to his advantage. He seems to be grateful for statistics because he is able to get a more accurate gage on where he is compared to other people who were diagnosed with Mesothelioma. Because he doesn’t just assume that the median mortality rate of eight months means he has eight months to live, he has more hope, optimism, and a stronger urge to fight and beat his cancer. Gould uses his statistical knowledge to the best of his abilities and it turns out to be very helpful. From the article, I got the feeling that Gould wants everyone to gain more statistical knowledge. Although not everyone will be faced with the same situation he was faced with, statistics is prevalent in everyday life and can be applied to almost every situation. Because statistics is so important, it is essential to educate others so they can make informed decisions as well as understand the world around them on a deeper level. I believe Gould lived so much longer than the media of eight months was for numerous reasons. Gould applied his statistical knowledge to his situation and because of this, he understood that he had a much higher chance of living past those eight months because he had several other factors going for him that would aid in his fight. Because Gould did not become defeated and accept that he only had eight months to live, he had hope that he would overcome his disease, all thanks to statistics. Understanding his odds gave him hope, which is necessary in any fight for survival. Gould also had all the right factors on his side: he was diagnosed early, he was hopeful and optimistic, he had incredible doctors, as well as a great treatment plan. A better way to present the message to patients who are in Gould’s shoes would

be to show them a graph as well as thoroughly explain it. Because a lot of people aren’t educated in the area of statistics, people will think that the median of eight months to live means that they only have eight months when that is not at all the case. They may not even realize that there are other possible outcomes. A graph solves this issue because it provides a visual aid to patients so they can see the trend for themselves. If the doctors explain to them that the median is the halfway point but there are many other outcomes that can occur based on several factors, the patients will be more informed as well as be more optimistic. If the doctors take the time to explain what the skews mean, what distribution variance is, as well as clearly state the differences between the mean, median, or mode compared to those, it will help the patients tremendously. Personally, if I was in the position of the patient, I would want to see all of my possible outcomes so I was completely informed and a graph would help with this. A lot of people learn more from visual aids and having that visual aid will help patients become aware of every single outcome instead of focusing solely on the median, in this case of eight months. Gould’s article was incredibly informing and he achieved his goal; he made readers come to the realization that statistics is important and people should really become more educated on the subject. His story is inspiring and the approach he took to fighting his cancer definitely contributed to his long life....