Population Geography notes as per DU syllabus PDF

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APPLICABILITY OF MALTHUSIAN THEORY Despite these weaknesses, the Malthusian theory contains much truth. It may not be applicable to Western Europe and England but its principal tools have become the part and parcel of the people of these countries. If these lands do not face the problems of over-population and misery, it is all due to the bogey and pessimism of Maltusianism. In fact, the people of Europe were made wiser by Malthus who forewarned them of the evils of overpopulation and they started adopting measures to ward it off. The very fact that people use preventive checks, like late marriage and various contraceptives and birth control measures on an extensive scale proves the vitality of the Malthusian law. The Malthusian doctrine may not be applicable now to its place of origin, but its influence spreads over twothird of this universe inhabited by underdeveloped countries. Excluding Japan, the whole of Asia, Africa and South America come under its purview. In the least developed countries of Africa, population is growing faster than the food supply. There are deaths by starvation. Positive checks like floods, wars, droughts, earthquakes, epidemics, etc. operate in all the underdeveloped countries. Malthus wrote. “The poor are themselves the cause of their poverty”. This is very true because it is the poor people who are responsible for the rapid growth of population in these countries. Thus the Malthusian theory is fully applicable to underdeveloped countries. So far as India is concerned, it is not an exception. Certain aspects of the Malthusian theory are applicable even though we have overcome the problem of food supply. The birth rate is high, but the death rate is on the decline. As a result the growth rate of population is high at 1.9 per cent per annum. The country is trying to control the phenomenon of over-population by preventive checks through family planning devices like late marriages, by raising the age of marriage for males and females, and the use of contraceptives, etc. Positive checks like war, droughts, floods, earthquakes, famines, pestilence, etc. are in operation. One-third of the population is below poverty line and unemployment and disguised unemployment are widespread due to over-population. The high growth rate of population keeps the per capita income at a low level. This has kept India among the low income countries despite its stupendous progress in agricultural, industrial and services sectors. Haunted by the Malthusian fear, India has adopted the population policy of family welfare which aims at reducing poverty and unemployment so as to raise per capita income through population control.

TRENDS IN POPULATION GROWTH At the beginning of the 20th century, the world’s population was approximately 1.5 billion; by 1960 it had doubled; and by late 1999, it had quadrupled to 6 billion. Annual additions to the global population rose from 47 million per year in 1950-1955 to a peak of 86 million in 1985-1990. This unprecedented growth was the net result of faster declines in mortality than in fertility, both from initially high levels.

DEATH RATE CUT BY HALF The most imp story behind the rapid rise from 3 to 6 billion people since 1960 is the unprecedented drop in mortality. This trend actually begin in the 19th century and in early 20th century, but intensified after world war 2 as the basic sanitation, clean drinking water and modern health care became more available in larger areas of the world. Since 1950, the death rate has been cut in half, from about 20 to fewer than 10 deaths per year per thousand people. At the same time average global life expectancy has risen from 46 to 66 yrs. Death rates have declined substantially in the less developed regions since 1950, but have remained roughly constant in the more developed regions because of their greater proportion of older people.

FERTILITY IS DECLINING, BUT UNEVENLY The number of births per year rose from 98 million in 1950 to a peak of 134 million in the late 1980s, and is projected to remain just under 130 million for the next 20 years while death rates slowly rise as the global population ages. Although only a very few countries have declining populations. 61 countries already have below replacement fertility rates. On the other hand, in 2050, 130 countries will still have positive growth rates, 44 of them above 1 per cent per year. Death rates have fallen by half since 1950, accounting for much of the rapid growth of the world population. Fertility has declined most quickly in Latin America and Asia, less rapidly in North Africa and the Middle East, and much more slowly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Europe’s fertility rate fell from 2.6 to 1.4, well below replacement level. On the other hand, Northern America’s fertility fell from 3.5 in 1950-1955 to 1.8 in the late 1970s, and then rebounded to the 1.9 to 2.0 range, where it has remained. Variations between and within regions, and among different population groups within countries, remain considerable. Some nations, such as brazil and the republic of korea have moved swiftly to near replacement level or below; others such as Nigeria and Guatemala, have seen only a slight fall in fertility rates. However the pace of decline has varied dramatically in different parts of both brazil and Nigeria.

UNIT-III POPULATION DYNAMICS Fertility, mortality and migration are principal determinants of population growth (or its inverse). In the absence of technological intervention, one might say almost the sole determinants, but improvements in contraceptive techniques, increasing acceptance of abortion, and slackening of some traditional religious and cultural traditions has in many parts of the world reduced the role of fertility. 1.FERTILITY Total fertility rate (TFR) in simple terms refers to total number of children born or likely to be born to a woman in her life time if she were subject to the prevailing rate of agespecific fertility in the population. TFR of about 2.1 children per woman is called Replacementlevel fertility. For the population in a given area to remain stable, an overall total fertility rate of 2.1 is needed, assuming no immigration or emigration occurs. Fertility, one of the three components of population dynamics (the others being mortality and migration), holds a very important place in any population study. A positive force in population dynamics, fertility is responsible for biological replacement and continuation of human society. Fertility levels determine the age structure of a population, which in turn governs the social, economic and demographic characteristics of the population. Fertility refers to the number of live births relating to a woman, or a group of women. It is the actual performance and should not be confused with fecundity, which refers to the physiological capacity to reproduce. Since it is not possible to measure the actual reproductive capacity of a woman, fecundity can only be assessed with the help of the maximum levels of fertility (or natural fertility) ever observed in a non-contraceptive population . MEASURES OF FERTILITY Fertility measures are devices to quantify the fertility performance of a population over a period of time. These measures are used to compare fertility behaviour of different populations, and to examine the trends in fertility of a population over a period of time. These measures can be grouped into two categories, viz., the direct measures and the indirect measures. While in the former, data on live births are directly used, in the latter an estimate is indirectly arrived at using some other demographic characteristics such as age distribution of population.

DIRECT MEASURES

Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is one of the most commonly used measures of fertility because of its simplicity in concept and measurement. It is the ratio between the total registered live births in a population during a calendar year and the mid-year population. CBR is calculated as (B/P) X 1000

where, B is the number of live births in a calendar year, P is the mid-year population. CBR is thus the number of live births per 1,000 persons in a calendar year. It is an important measure of fertility as it directly points to the contribution of fertility to the growth rate of population. However, as the name suggests, CBR is only a crude measure and suffers from various limitations. Since both the numerator and denominator in the equation stated above get affected through births, CBR tends to underplay changes in fertility. It is, however, important to note that every individual in the population (of all ages and sexes) is not exposed to the risk of reproduction. General Fertility Rate (GFR), an improvement over CBR, therefore, takes into account only female population in the childbearing age groups or reproductive span (i.e., 15 to 44 or 49 years). GFR is, thus, defined as the ratio between the total live births and number of women in the reproductive age span. GFR is calculated as (B/W15-44) X 1000 where W15-44 is the mid-year population of women in the reproductive ages. Necessary modification can be made where the upper limit of the reproductive span is taken as 49 years. Apart from age, marital status is also a very important differential factor in fertility. In almost all the societies of the world, birth is allowed only in a marital bond. It would, therefore, be more appropriate to consider only the currently married women, and not all women, in the reproductive ages. A measure calculated in this manner is termed as General Marital Fertility Rate (GMFR), and can be mathematically expressed as: GMFR is calculated as (B/Wm15-44) X 1000 Where Wm15-44 is the mid-year number of married women in the reproductive ages. Though a refinement over CBR, GFR also suffers from certain limitations. The measure considers entire female population in the reproductive ages as a homogeneous group, whereas the fecundity of women is not uniform over the period. Thus, GFR is also a crude rate. AgeSpecific Fertility Rate (ASFR) takes care of this problem. ASFR is calculated in the following manner: ASFR is calculated as (NBX-X+N/ NWX) X 1000 where NBX-X+N is the number of live births to women in the age group X to X + n, and NwX is the mid-year number of women in the age group x to x+ n. Note that this measure can also be

worked out with reference to only currently married women in a particular age group. In this case, it is termed as the Age-Specific Marital Fertility Rate (ASMFR) and is expressed as: ASMFR is calculated as (NBX-X+N/ NWmx) X 1000 Where Nwmx is the mid-year number of married women in the age group x to x+n. Since there is a possibility of a greater incidence of unmarried women in the early age groups and divorced, separated and widowed women in the older age brackets of the reproductive age span, ASMFR provides a more real picture of fertility levels in a population. ASFR can be worked out for single year age data as well as for broad age groups. Usually, the reproductive age span is divided into five-year age groups, numbering six or seven depending upon the upper limit of the reproductive age span. This makes any comparison between two or more populations a cumbersome exercise. Total Fertility Rate (TFR), a summary measure of ASFR, facilitates such comparison. This is obtained by multiplying the sum of ASFR by the width of the age group, and then dividing the product by the value of radix (i.e., 1,000). Consider the following: TFR can be calculated as {(∑ ASFR) n}/K Where ‘n’ is the width of the age group and ‘K’ is the value of the radix i.e. 1000 TFR, thus, refers to the total number of children a woman will produce during her childbearing age span, if she is subjected to a fertility schedule as prescribed by the age-specific fertility rates. The TFR together with the ASFR can be further used to construct several measures that are useful in the study of fertility changes. Another measure that reduces the effects of age structure to its minimum, and hence facilitates comparison of fertility levels of two or more populations, is Sex Age Adjusted Birth Rate (SAABR). The United Nations has defined it as “the number of births per 1,000 of a weighted sum of the number of women in various five-year age groups from 15 to 44”. The UN has recommended a standard set of weights (1, 7, 7, 6, 4 and 1) corresponding to the six five-year age groups in the reproductive age span from 15 to 44 years. These weights are roughly proportional to the typical relative fertility rates of various age groups. These weights were derived on the basis of a study of 52 nations with varying levels of fertility. SAABR is calculated as B/[(1xW1) + (7xW2) + (7xW3) + (6xW4) + (4xW5) + (1xW6)] where ‘B’ is the number of live births in a calendar year and W1, W2…. W6 are the number of women in the six five-year age groups in the reproductive age span. INDIRECT MEASURES

In addition to the direct measures , there are several indirect measures of fertility, which are useful particularly when data on live births are not readily available, or are not reliable. These measures arrive at estimates of fertility indirectly using data on age-sex structure, and marital status cross-classified by age and sex. Child Women Ratio and Female Mean Age at Marriage are most commonly used indirect measures. Child Women Ratio (CWR) is defined as the number of children under five years of age, per 100 women in the reproductive ages. CWR can be calculated as (Po-4/W 15-44 or49) X K Where, P0-4 is the number of children in the age groups 0-4 years and W15.44 or 49 is the number of women in the reproductive ages. ‘K’ is usually taken in this case as 100. As P0.4 is the survivors of the children born over the preceding five years, and not the total births, CWR is affected by infant and child mortality. Hence, it is not a very accurate measure of fertility. Nevertheless, it may be used as a relative measure to study the fertility performance of different sections of the same population. Age at marriage is said to have significant bearings on the fertility performance of women in a population. If age at marriage is low, women start bearing children at an early age. But, when the age at marriage is raised, the reproductive span is reduced, and overall fertility level is low. Mean age at marriage, therefore, is taken as a proximate indicator of fertility levels.

DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY 1.PERCENTAGE OF WOMEN IN SEXUAL UNION It is assumed that the number of women of reproductive age married or living with someone determines the proportion of women in a society exposed to the risk of becoming pregnant. The greater the number of women exposed, the higher is the resulting fertility. 2.CONTRACEPTION Use of contraception to delay or limit the number of children born clearly affects a society's fertility level. The level of current use of contraception is one of the prominent indicators used to assess the success of family planning programs. It is also a widely used measure in the analysis of fertility determinants. 3.POSTPARTUM INFECUNDABILITY AND INSUSCEPTIBILITY

Post-partum amenorrhea is the interval between the birth of a child and the resumption of menstruation. It is the period following childbirth during which a woman becomes temporarily and involuntarily infecund. Post-partum protection from conception can be prolonged by the intensity and length of breastfeeding. Post-partum abstinence refers to the period of voluntary sexual inactivity after childbirth. A woman is considered insusceptible if she is not exposed to the risk of pregnancy, either because of amenorrhea or post-partum abstinence. 4.PATHOLOGICAL OR PRIMARY STERILITY Primary sterility, or the inability of a woman to bear a child for biological reasons, has historically been high in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Central Africa . In societies that value large families, such levels of sterility prevent some women who would like to bear children from doing so and lower the average level of fertility. 5.ABORTION

Abortion is legal and widely practiced in Viet Nam. The People’s Health Law (1989) stresses the fact that “a woman has the right to undertake induced abortion at her request, to access health-care services for checking and treating gynaecological diseases, to take prenatal and delivery care and to serve as an assistant at delivery care in health services”. Abortion services, including menstrual regulation are readily available both in public and private facilities. It is evident from the survey data that women in Viet Nam often resort to abortion due to lack of contraceptions and contraceptive failure. 6.MENOPAUSE The termination of a woman’s fecundity is signified by menopause, that is, the cessation of the menstrual period. The proportion of women who are considered menopausal increases with age. This proportion shows a slow increase from 1 percent among women age 30-34 to 5 percent for women age 42-43, and then increases rapidly to 38 percent for women age 48-49.

FERTILITY TRENDS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS

CONSEQUENCES OF HIGH FERTILITY DEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES: 1) Rapid population growth 2) Young age structure DEVELOPMENT CONSEQUENCES: ECONOMIC: Low wages, unemployment, poverty, slow growth ENVIRONMENTAL: Depletion of natural resources, pollution HEALTH: High maternal and child mortality GOVERNMENTAL: Lagging investment in education, health services and infrastructure. POLITICAL: Rising political extremism and civil strife

CONSEQUENCES OF INTERMEDIATE/DECLINING FERTILITY DEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES: 1) Declining growth rates 2) Fewer young people, more workers DEVELOPMENT CONSEQUENCES: ECONOMIC: Rapid growth, rising wages, high inequality. Increasing engagement of women in wage paying work ENVIRONMENTAL: Depletion of natural resources, air, water and soil pollution HEALTH: Declining maternal and child mortality GOVERNMENTAL: Massive investments in education, health services and infrastructure POLITICAL: Inequality and disaffected voters.

CONSEQUENCES OF LOW FERTILITY

DEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES: 1) Near zero or negative population growth rates. 2) Rapid population ageing DEVELOPMENT CONSEQUENCES: ECONOMIC: Slower economic growth; slower growth in standard of living; slower growth in workers productivity. GOVERNMENTAL: Unsustainable health and pension costs; rising governmental budget deficits POLITICAL: Rising voting power of elderly.

MORTALITY Mortality rate, or death rate, is a measure of the number of deaths in a particular population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time. Mortality rate is typically expressed in units of deaths per 1,000 individuals per year; thus, a mortality rate of 9.5 (out of 1,000) in a population of 1,000 would mean 9.5 deaths per year in that entire population, or 0.95% out of the total. This is one of the three determinants of population dynamics. It is useful for projecting the future size of the population. Identify population groups that are at high risk and in need of health services. Indicatives of quality of life and expectation of life at birth. Useful guides to planners. Helpful to insurance companies.

MEASURES OF MORTALITY It is the quantitative and statistical devices to label the risk of mortality to which a population is exposed over a period of time. Some imp terms:

Foetal death : Deaths prior to the complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product of conception at any time of pregnancy. Still birth : Death of foetus after completing 28 weeks and till the time of the birth Incidence rate : Number of NEW cases of specified diseases occurring in a defined population during a specified period of time. No. of new cases of specified diseases during a given period IR = --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X 1000 Population at risk Prevalence rate: Number of all current cases (old and new) of a disease at one point in time in relation to defined population. No. of new and old cases of specified diseases existing at a given point in time PR = ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X 1000 E...