RBA Chart Pack Feb 2020 PDF

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The Australian Economy and Financial Markets Chart Pack | February 2020

The Australian Economy and Financial Markets Contents Graphs World Economy Australian Growth Australian Inflation Household Sector Business Sector Credit and Money Factors of Production and Labour Market Regions and Industry Government Commodity Prices Balance of Payments and External Position Interest Rates Share Markets Bond Issuance Exchange Rates Banking Indicators

1–3 4 5 6–7 8–9 10 11–12 13 14 15 16–17 18–22 23 24–25 26–27 28–29

World Economy Year-ended %

%

12

12

China 8

8

India

4

4

0 2007

2010

2013

2016

0 2019

Sources: CEIC Data; RBA

CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2020

1

World Economy Inflation – China and India

Inflation – Advanced Economies* Year-ended %

% US

4

4 Euro area

2

2

0

0 Japan

-2

-2

-4 2007

2011

2015

-4 2019

*

Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation for the US; Japan data excludes the effects of the consumption tax increase in April 2014 Sources: RBA; Refinitiv

Labour Markets – Advanced Economies

%

Unemployment rate

12

Inflation – East Asia

% 12

Year-ended %

%

Euro area

Indonesia

8

8 US

4

15

15

10

10

5

5

4

%

%

Wages growth* Year-ended

4

4

2

2

0

0

0

0

Japan

South Korea

Malaysia

-2

-2 2007

*

2010

2013

2016

2019

Average hourly earnings for the US; compensation per employee for the euro area; smoothed full-time base wages for Japan Sources: ECB; Eurostat; RBA; Refinitiv

-5

2003

2007

2011

2015

2019

-5

Sources: CEIC Data; RBA

CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2020

2

World Economy

CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2020

3

Australian Growth Year-ended ppt

September 2019

ppt

-0.5

-0.5

-1.0

-1.0 Imports

0.0

Exports

0.0

Government

0.5

Non-mining investment

0.5

Mining investment

1.0

Dwelling investment

1.0

Consumption

1.5

GDP

1.5

Sources: ABS; RBA

Mining and Non-mining Activity Year-ended growth, RBA estimates Mining*

% 20

Year-ended growth % 20

Mining investment

10

10

0

0 Resource exports

%

%

% WA

15

15

10

10

5

5

%

Non-mining

0

6

0 NSW and Vic

6

Rest of Australia

-5 3

3

0 2003 *

2007

2011

2015

Net of mining-related imports; components are contributions to year-ended mining activity growth; contribution from changes in inventories not shown

0 2019

-5

-10

-10

-15 1999

2003

2007

2011

2015

-15 2019

Sources: ABS; RBA

Sources: ABS; RBA

CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2020

4

Australian Inflation %

% Year-ended

Year-ended %

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

% Weighted median

5

5 Trimmed mean

4

4

3

3

2 Quarterly

2 CPI excl volatile items

1

1

(seasonally adjusted)

-1

-1 1994 *

1999

2004

2009

2014

2019

0

0 1994

Excludes interest charges prior to the September quarter 1998; adjusted for the tax changes of 1999–2000

*

Sources: ABS; RBA

1999

2004

2009

2014

2019

Excludes interest charges prior to September 1998 and deposit & loan facilities prior to September 2011; adjusted for 1999–2000 tax changes

Sources: ABS; RBA

Tradable and Non-tradable Inflation* %

%

Non-tradables**

4

4 Year-ended

2 0

2 0

Quarterly (seasonally adjusted)

%

%

Tradables excl volatiles

4

4

2

2

0

0

-2

-2 1994

* **

1999

2004

2009

2014

2019

Adjusted for the tax changes of 1999–2000 Excludes interest charges and indirect deposit & loan facilities

Sources: ABS; RBA

CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2020

5

Household Sector %

%

Real, year-ended growth

10

10

Consumption

5

Average since 1980 = 100 index

index

5

0

0 Disposable income Saving ratio

%

10

5

5

0

0

1994

1999

2004

2009

100

85

85

%

10

-5 1989

100

2014

-5 2019

70

70 2008

*

Household sector includes unincorporated enterprises; disposable income is after tax and interest payments; saving ratio is net of depreciation Sources: ABS; RBA

*

2011

2014

2017

2020

Average of the ANZ-Roy Morgan and Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment measure of respondents’ perceptions of their personal finances relative to the previous year; ANZ-Roy Morgan index rescaled to have the same average as the Westpac-Melbourne Institute index since 1996

Sources: ANZ-Roy Morgan; RBA; Westpac and Melbourne Institute

Private Dwelling Investment*

Private Residential Building Approvals

Chain volume, quarterly

Monthly

$b

$b

24

24

’000

’000

20

18

18

12

12

20 Total

16

16

12

12

8

8

Detached houses

4

4 Higher-density housing

6 1994 *

1999

Reference year is 2017/18

2004

2009

2014

6 2019

0

0 1994

1999

2004

2009

2014

2019

Source: ABS

Source: ABS

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6

Household Sector Household Wealth and Liabilities* Ratio to household disposable income ratio

Per cent of annual household disposable income ratio

Household debt

Housing prices

%

% Net wealth

5

2.0

600

4

1.5

400

3

1.0

200

2

0.5

0

600 Dwellings 400

Financial assets

200

Liabilities 1990 *

2005

20201990

2005

2020

1999

2004

2009

2014

0 2019

*

Household disposable income is after tax, before the deduction of interest payments, and includes income of unincorporated enterprises

Household disposable income is after tax, before the deduction of interest payments, and includes income of unincorporated enterprises Sources: ABS; RBA

Sources: ABS; CoreLogic; RBA

Excluding refinancing

Year-ended growth, seasonally adjusted %

%

$b

$b

ABS* 15

15 APM***

20

20 Total

10

10 15 Residex*

5

15

5

Owner-occupier 10

0

0

-5

-5

10 Investor

5

5

CoreLogic** -10

-10 2009

*

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

ABS is a quarterly stratified median price index; Residex is a quarterly repeat sales price index ** Monthly hedonic price index; non-seasonally adjusted *** Quarterly stratified median price index Sources: ABS; APM; CoreLogic; RBA; Residex

0 2003

0 2007

2011

2015

2019

*

Seasonally adjusted Sources: ABS; RBA

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7

Business Sector Share of nominal GDP

Nominal, log scale

%

%

18

18

16

16

14

14

12

12

10 1989

1994

1999

2004

2009

2014

10 2019

$b

$b

Non-mining

Mining

128

128

64

64

32

32

16

16

8

8

4

4

2 91 / 92

*

05 / 06

05 / 06

19 / 2091 / 92

19 / 20

*

Adjusted for second-hand asset transfers between the private and other sectors Source: ABS

Dots are firms’ expectations for 2019/20; adjusted for historical differences between expected and realised spending Sources: ABS; RBA

%

Share of nominal GDP %

2

%

% 50

50

Machinery and equipment 8

Manufacturing

8 40

6

6

Financial and insurance services

Mining

30

30 Other business services**

4

4

40

Retail and wholesale trade Construction

20

20

Buildings 2

2

Agriculture

10

10

Engineering 0 0 1989 *

1994

1999

2004

2009

2014

Adjusted for second-hand asset transfers between the private and other sectors Source: ABS

0 2019

93 / 94 * **

98 / 99

03 / 04

08 / 09

13 / 14

0 18 / 19

Nominal; includes second hand asset transfers Includes: information media and telecommunications; rental, hiring and real estate services; professional, scientific and technical services; administrative and support services

Source: ABS

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8

Business Sector NAB Business Survey ppt

Share of nominal GDP %

%

ppt

Business conditions*

15

15

0

0

Non-mining 12

12

8

8

-15

-15

-30

-30

ppt

4

4

0

0 2019

1999 *

2003

2007

2011

2015

Gross operating profits; inventory valuation adjusted

15

15

0

0

-15

-15

-30

-30

%

Sources: ABS; RBA

Break-adjusted $b

$b

ppt

Business confidence*

Mining

%

Capacity utilisation

84

84

81

81

78

78 Average since 1989

75 300

300 Large business

75

72 1994

250

250

200

1999

2004

2009

2014

72 2019

* Net balance; deviation from average since 1989 Sources: NAB; RBA

200 Small business

150

2011 *

2013

2015

2017

2019

150

Credit exposures on the balance sheets of banks allowed by APRA to use an internal ratings-based approach for credit risk management

Sources: APRA; RBA

CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2020

9

Credit and Money Credit and Broad Money Growth %

Year-ended %

%

20

20 Broad money

15

15

10

10

Owner-occupier

12

%

Investor

12

Six-month annualised

9

9

6

6

3

3

0

0

% Credit

5

5

0

0 1999

2004

2009

2014

2019

% Monthly

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.0

-0.5

Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA

2009

2014

2019 2009

2014

2019

-0.5

Sources: APRA; RBA

Monetary Aggregates Growth

Credit Growth by Sector

Year-ended

Year-ended

%

%

%

M3 20

Housing

20

15

15

10

10

%

20

20

10

10 Business

5

5

0

0 Personal

Currency 0

0 1999

Sources: APRA; RBA

2004

2009

2014

2019

-10

-10 2003

2007

2011

2015

2019

Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA

CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2020

10

Factors of Production and Labour Market Annual growth %

%

%

4

4

%

Net capital stock*

5

5

3

3

3

3 Year-ended

%

%

Working-age population

2.0

2

2 Quarterly

2.0

1

1 1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0 18 / 19

0 83 / 84

90 / 91

97 / 98

04 / 05

11 / 12

1999 *

*

2003

2007

2011

2015

0 2019

Total pay excluding bonuses

Source: ABS

Excluding livestock & orchards, dwellings and ownership transfer costs Sources: ABS; RBA

Non-farm, year-ended

1979/80 = 100 index

index

%

200

5

5

175

175

0

0

150

150

%

200

%

Unit labour costs

Capital-labour ratio

125

125

5

100

0

Average earnings per hour

% 5

Capital-output ratio 100

0 Labour productivity per hour

75 83 / 84 *

90 / 91

97 / 98

04 / 05

11 / 12

75 18 / 19

Capital stock excludes livestock & orchards, dwellings and ownership transfer costs

-5 1999

2004

2009

2014

-5 2019

Sources: ABS; RBA

Sources: ABS; RBA

CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2020

11

Factors of Production and Labour Market Employment and Participation Rates %

Employment and Hours Worked* %

2008 average = 100 index

index

Participation rate 64

64 116

116 Employment 61

61 108

108

58

58

55

1994

1999

2004

2009

2014

2019

Total hours worked 100

100

Employment to working-age population ratio

Average hours worked

55

92

92 2007

Source: ABS

*

2010

2013

2016

2019

Seasonally adjusted; trend in darker colour

Sources: ABS; RBA

Job Vacancies and Advertisements Heads-based

Per cent of labour force

%

%

%

% Advertisements (ANZ survey)

10

10 2.0

2.0

Underemployment rate* 8

8

Vacancies* (ABS survey)

6

1.5

1.0

1.0

6 Unemployment rate

4

2

4

2 1994

*

1.5

1999

2004

2009

2014

0.5

2019

Full-time workers on reduced hours for economic reasons and part-time workers who would like, and are available, to work more hours

0.5 2003

2007

2011

2015

2019

*

This survey was suspended between May 2008 and November 2009 Sources: ABS; ANZ

Source: ABS

CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2020

12

Regions and Industry State Unemployment Rates Nominal

Trend

%

%

%

%

New South Wales 35

35

30

30 Victoria

25

South ...