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Major Blodorn Blascovich The Threat of Increasing Diversity: Why many White Americans support Trump in the 2016 presidential election 

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the changing racial demographics of America contribute to Trump’s success as a presidential candidate among White Americans whose race/ethnicity is central to their identity. Reminding White Americans high in ethnic identification that non-White racial groups will outnumber Whites in the United States by 2042 caused them to become more concerned about the declining status and influence of White Americans as a group (i.e., experience group status threat), and caused them to report increased support for Trump and anti-immigrant policies, as well as greater opposition to political correctness. the racial shift condition had no effect on group status threat or support for anti-immigrant policies, but did cause decreased positivity toward Trump and decreased opposition to political correctness Reminders of the changing racial demographics had comparable effects for Democrats and Republicans. Results illustrate the importance of changing racial demographics and White ethnic identification in voter preferences and how social psychological theory can illuminate voter preferences. Many White Americans in the US view race relations as “zero-sum,” in which status gains for minorities means status loss for Whites and less bias against minorities means more bias against Whites social identity theory predicts that people are motivated to maintain a positive social identity, and do so by comparing the status of groups with which they identify to that of other groups. When they feel that their own group’s higher status relative to other groups is unstable or slipping, they experience group status threat, that is, worry that their own group’s status, influence, and position in the hierarchy is under threat. Group status threat predicts increased discrimination against outgroups Integrated threat theory also predicts that increasing diver- sity poses a threat to White Americans, as an increase in minorities represents a real threat to White Americans’ resources, as well as a symbolic threat to White American values motivated social cognition theory predicts that increasing ethnic diversity is apt to be frightening and confusing to Whites; uncertainty and fear, in turn, have been shown to cause people to endorse more conservative political policies

Fairdosi Rogowski Candidate race partisanship and political participation: When do black candidates increase black turnout 

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Using data from the 2010 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we find that, while the presence of a black Democratic House candidate was associated with increased black voter turnout, there was no association between black Republican candidates and black turnout. We report further evidence that black citizens’ perceptions of black candidates’ ideologies and character traits differed substantially based on the candidate’s party The results further suggest that Republican efforts to recruit black candidates are unlikely to mobilize black voters.

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levels of turnout among black voters in 2008 were widely attributed to Barack Obama’s presence as the first black presidential candidate o Because of minority empowerment thesis which states that racial minori- ties are more likely to participate in politics when a coracial candidate appears on the ballot Study focused on how black citizens the overwhelming majority of vote and identify as democrats respond to black republican candidates While racial group identity plays an important role in influencing how and when black citi- zens engage in politics, partisan identity fundamen- tally shapes how citizens perceive and process the political world o Thus, for the vast majority of black citizens, the presence of a black Republican candidate may introduce competing racial group and par- tisan stimuli. Question = how racial and partisan identities affect black political behavior. o We study this question using black voter turnout in the 2010 U.S. midterm elections, in which nearly three dozen black candidates sought the Republican nomina- tion for Congress  the mobilizing effects of coracial candidates are heavily conditioned by partisanship  black citizens who identify as Democrats or Independents were in fact more likely to turn out to vote when black Democratic candidates sought office  black Republican candidates did not generate similar results  shared partisanship appeared to be significantly stronger than the racial cue in influencing black citi- zens’ interest in learning more about the candidates on offer  Because partisan identities significantly shape how citizens respond to political candidates, even in the presence of other salient identities such as racial group, Republican efforts in recruiting black candi- dates were ultimately unsuccessful at mobilizing black voters. Rates of voter turnout and other forms of participation among black individu- als have historically trailed those for white individuals o Reasons include gaps in education socioeconomic status and mobilization Dawson (2001) reports that 65 percent of black citizens believe that white officials cannot represent black constituencies as well as black officials can o Thus, elections between non- black candidates may not generate high levels of black political participation because black voters do not believe that either candidate would provide a sufficient level of political representation. Citizens may turn out to vote at higher levels for cor- acial or coethnic candidates due to the importance of group identity Group membership—including racial group membership—is “a powerful basis for the development of self-identity and perceptions of individual interest” (Bobo 1983, 1200) a person’s racial group identification may affect her deci- sion to support a particular candidate based on a percep- tion of which alternative is more likely to advance the group’s interests When seeing a black candidate for office, then, black voters’ sense of “linked fate” may lead them to view a black candidate’s success as their own success. o Evidence = black voters were more likely to turn out to vote in areas they termed “minority empowerment zones,” which they operationalized as cities that were governed by black mayors

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Partisanship, operating as a kind of social identity similar to race, religion, or region plays a key role in influencing how citi- zens perceive and engage with the political world. it is unclear that the pres- ence of a black Republican candidate would have a mobilizing effect on black voters “[P] arty has a profound influence across the full range of political objects to which the individual voter responds.” 339 “In partisan elections, the most powerful cue provided by the political environment is the candidate’s affiliation with a particular political party.” 339 In the case of a black Republican candidate, once black citizens (again, most of whom are Democrats) are aware of the candidate’s race, the racial cue may not be sufficient to overcome citizens’ proclivities for partisan candidates Consistent with the minority empow- erment thesis, coracial candidates —of either party—may mobilize voter turnout, perhaps by appealing to a shared racial identity and increasing political efficacy and trust. o If so, we would expect that black Democratic candidates and black Republican candidates have an equivalent effect on black voter turnout  Alternatively, due to the his- the historical links between black voters and Democrats and the strong perceptual influences of partisanship, black Democratic candidates may increase turnout among black citizens, while black Republicans do not have a similar effect. The evidence assembled here indicates that black Democratic candidates increased turnout among black voters in the 2010 midterm elections, while black Republican candidates did not The data indicate that both race and party matter for how black citizens evaluate political candidates. black citizens do not view all black candidates in the same way; instead, black candidates are distinguished ideologically on the basis of their partisan label Overall, black citizens believe that black Democratic candidates share many of their political values and ideology, while they view black Republican candidates as being substantially more out of step black citizens do distin- guish Republican candidates on the basis of their race, as black Republican candidates were perceived to be somewhat less conservative than nonblack Republican candidates black respon- dents rated black Democratic and black Republican candidates more highly than white candidates black respondents rated white Democratic can- the candidates higher than black Republican candidates Partisanship fundamen- tally shapes how citizens perceive political candidates, and though there is clearly room for other factors and identities, such as race, to influence how citizens respond to political candidates, these evaluations occur once citi- zens have viewed the candidates through partisan lenses

Philpot and Walton African American Political Participation  

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“The tendency to apply a “one-size-fits-all” model to explain political participation led political science often miscalculate the root causes of Blacks’ orientation to the political world.” (pg 1) Conventional v unconventional participation o African Americans before being able to vote participated in unconventional political behavior: protests, marches, etc.  There are still these practiced today (ex fight against police brutality...candidate needs to NOT speak on this issue) “Because Blacks, by nature of their early exclusion from the political and electoral process, were forced to engage in unconventional participation, any conceptualization of African-American participation must include both forms” (Walton 2003, pg 3) “Milbrath defines political participation as a function of (1) stimuli, (2) personal factors, (3) political setting, and (4) social position” o Important considering african americans social position Increased black participation in politics because of increased sense of group consciousness Disenfranchisement of African Americans → decrease political participation Drawing of minority-majority districts also strongly affects this disenfranchisement Common fate is a function of a Black individual’s awareness of interdependence with other Blacks and the centrality of race to the lives of individual Blacks (pg 10) o Unlike group consciousness, linked fate takes into account the “more complect political or ideological elements of group consciousness” pg 10 

Cannot apply all black the same way, but they have a shared sense of beliefs stemming from their nationality

  Neither Black nor White Race Appeal How Candidates Invoke Race in US Politics

Bobo and Gilliam : Race, sociopolitical participation, and black empowerment 

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1970’s students ofblack political behavior determined 2 points: o Blacks tended to participate more than whites when differences in socioeconomic status were taken into account o A strong sense of ‘ethnic community’ or a group consciousness, was the stimulus to heightened black participation Blacks increased control of institutionalized power is likely to have a strong impact on the level and nature of black socio political behavior Two psychological theories advanced to explain patterns of black political involvement o Compensatory theory → blacks join organizations and become politically active to an exaggerated degree in order to overcome the exclusion and feelings of inferiority forced on them by a hostile white society o Ethnic community approach → membership in disadvantaged minority communities leads people to develop strong feelings of group attachment and group consciousness  Emergence of group norms that call for political action to improve the status of the group

 Understanding White Polarization Michael Tesler Post Racist or More Racist 1,3,4,6 Michael Tesler David Sears Obama's Race Chapters 1,4

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Despite the hopes of the civil rights movement, researchers have found that the election of African Americans to office has not greatly improved the well-being of the black community. This study focuses on the white community, however, and finds that black leadership can have a profound effect. Under black mayors there is positive change in the white vote and in the racial sentiments expressed by members of the white electorate. Although white Republicans seem largely immune to the effects of black incumbency, for Democrats and independents an experience with a black mayoralty tends to decrease racial tension, increase racial sympathy, and increase support of black leadership. Two questions are focused on by scholars

One - whether white Americans will vote for black candidates (and why or why not) Two- whether African Americans, once elected, can improve the economic standing of blacks  Answers to both are discouraging  Vast majority of whites will vote for a white candidate even if it means switching parties  70% to 90% of white voters will choose the white candidate in a typical biracial contest Even when blacks are elected, their leadership does not greatly improve the economic well-being of African Americans at the city, regional, or state level o According to Manning Marable, the election of Afri- can Americans “can be viewed as a psychological triumph, but they represent no qualitative resolution to the crises of black poverty, educational inequality, crime, and unemployment”  Some interpret this as proof of the ineffectiveness of black leaders  However this ignores the potentially positive effect of black representation on the white community in terms of racial attitudes, tolerance, and future voting behavior.  The election of blacks to public office may not improve conditions for African Americans to the degree many may wish, but it may have less visible but equally consequential effects on white voters: educating them about black leaders, reducing white fears regarding the types of policies these leaders will enact, and improving race relations as a result  Question - Does experience with black leadership change the racial attitudes, policy preferences, and voting behavior of white Americans?  Three Hypotheses about white political behavior o The Information Hypothesis  black political representation should sig- nificantly improve white attitudes toward o o

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African Americans and increase the likelihood that whites will vote for the black incumbent in the next election (even if s/he runs against a white challenger) because they have learned critical information regarding the degree to which black leadership will affect their economic well-being When a black challenger runs for office, many whites fear that s/he will favor the black community over the white by redistributing income, encour- aging integration, and generally channeling resources toward African Americans

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Research shows doesn't actually happen

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The greater the number of African Americans elected to positions of power, the more whites will learn about the effects of their leadership, the less they will fear it, and the more likely they will be to vote for black candidates in the future

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There are two reasons that whites fear black leadership  limited first-hand experience with African Americans in positions of authority

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and a long history of racial conflict white voters have little or no personal experience with black leadership, they often rely on racial stereotypes for information about how African Americans are likely to behave once elected  Hurts blacks chance for white support When whites know little about a candidate other than race, they rate blacks worse than whites on nineteen out of twenty leadership and personality characteristics; they view a black candidate as less trustworthy, less able to get things done, and even less intelligent When blacks first run for office, the election tends to be more competitive than usual, turnout often exceeds normal levels, and partisan identification is often ignored The election of an African American is especially important in the minds of white voters because it marks one of the first times that blacks have authority or control over the white community

When blacks have (or are perceived to have) the power to inflict harm on whites and choose not to do so, whites learn that black control does not mean their downfall The Racial Prejudice Hypothesis: Enduring Racial Stereotypes  can be argued that black representation, no matter how positive its effect on the white community, will have no influence on white attitudes toward African Americans or white behavior toward black incumbents.  If racial prejudice is the primary factor behind white opposition to black empowerment, as many suggest, then there is little reason to suspect that white views or behavior will change The Racial Threat Hypothesis: White Backlash  If racial prejudice is the primary factor behind white opposition to black empowerment, as many suggest, then there is little reason to suspect that white views or behavior will change  If this is the case then the election of blacks to important leadership positions should heighten racial tension and result in widespread white backlash  An increasing black presence in the local community has been linked to greater levels of racial conservatism an increased sense of threat among whites and increased white-onblack violence  challenges to white power and author- ity are associated with higher white voter turnout, widespread defection of whites from the Democratic Party and greater Republican Party identification among white voters 

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Mendelberg Chapter 1           

Presidential election of 1988 involved George Bush and Michael Dukakis MA Governor Michael Dukakis had given furlough to a young black man named Willie Horton. Horton escaped on furlough and assaulted a white couple in their home, raping the woman. George Bush’s campaign team emphasized the Willie Horton case under the guise of criminal justice reform, however there were racist undertones to their messaging which was criticized until it was too late The Horton story was an appeal to the stereotypes white voters held about blacks, particurlarly the stereoptye that black men rape white women Bush’s prospects in the polls shot up when the Willie Horton case was first mentioned Jesse Jackson, a civil rights activist, called out the Bush campaign’s use of subtle racial undertones to manipulate white voters After Jackson voiced his criticism, Bush’s numbers steeply slid the polls In the end Bush beat Dukakis Political commentators and scholars realize Bush’s team won the election by negatively attacking Dukakis by distorting the truth under the guise of advocating for criminal justice reform “The most important and underplayed lesson of the Horton message is that, in a racially divided society that aspires to equality, the injection of race into campaigns poses a great danger to democratic politics ~ so long as the injection of race takes place under cover” (Mendelberg, 4) “The history of racial norms reveals that as the racial norm changed during the twentieth century from inegalitarian to egalitarian, racial communication was transformed. The century began with highly explicit political communication about race, but as the century progressed, the explicit turned implicit" (Mendelberg, 8)

EXTERNAL SOURCES FOR PATRICK...