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Kanza Ahmad Professor Isben Jeudy Stats 110 Dec. 1, 2015 Population of the US vs. Reported Forcible Rapes Forcible rape is a horrifying issue around the world that is yet to be fully resolved. It is one of society’s major problems that seem to never disappear but the numbers have definitely decreased over the years. I believe the rates of forcible rape in the U.S. will further decrease as the population progresses and the civilization modernizes and advances. With new policies coming into action and feminism rising, there should only be a downfall of rape cases whether it is reported or unreported. According to the data from 1982-2012 of Forcible rape cases in the United States population; the rates of rape have fluctuated high and low without a definite pattern. At 1982 they were recorded at 78,770, and by 1992 they were at a high of 109,062 only to have dropped ever since to 84,376 which was last recorded in 2012. The calculated r equals to -.137, which proves that there is no relation between the two factors of population and rape cases. No sense of correlation seems to exist due to the many factors that go into rape cases; some cases may have never been reported and some periods in the past may have had high crime rates making the rates of rape to go high. With no correlation of the data, it proves my conjecture to be false because the future rates of rape will be unpredicted depending upon the future events yet to occur. Over the 30-year period, the relative frequencies have remained in the same ballpark between 2.737% and 3.789%. There also aren’t any evident outliers present in the data surpassing the upper fence of 358 million or the lower fence of 183 million.

With an average population of 271,259,371.3, the average rapes calculated to 92,851.09677, which isn’t a high rate if one compares it to the 271 million population. However this rate of rapes should be lower due to America containing thousands of laws and regulations against almost every crime possible. Even with how America has evolved and modernized in the 21st century, there were still about 84,376 rapes reported in 2012. Although there is no evident correlation in the data, this decreasing number of Forced Rapes reported should be a sign of hope and a safety factor for many. Although some people do fail to report the abuse they suffer, hopefully the numbers of unreported rapes have also decreased as the era advances. Overall, the data and outcome isn’t as hoped, but the numbers are decreasing and one can only hope the numbers continue to decrease. With an r providing no correlation, it is extremely difficult to predict what the future holds in this particular crime rate. With more extensive research done however, one can establish the different factors that lead to the act of forced rape such as poverty, alcohol abuse, drug abuse or etc. Knowing the little correlation between the two variables can be helpful in eliminating the population rise as a variable and can conclude that other variables affect the rates of rape much more drastically. With this information, one can conduct different studies to determine those factors and the correlations they hold with the data of forcible rape. Once such factors are defined, they can be regulated further and the numbers of forced rape will eventually decrease significantly.

Year

Population

Forcible rape

Rel. Frequency

% 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

231664458 233791994 235824902 237923795 240132887 242288918 244498982 246819230 249464396 252153092 255029699 257782608 260327021 262803276 265228572 267783607 270248003 272690813 281421906 285317559 287973924 290788976 293656842 296507061 299398484 301621157 304059724 307006550 309330219 311587816 313914040

78770 78918 84233 87671 91459 91111 92486 94504 102555 106593 109062 106014 102216 97470 96252 96153 93144 89411 90178 90863 95235 93883 95089 94347 94472 92160 90750 89241 85593 84175 84376

2.737 2.742 2.926 3.046 3.177 3.165 3.213 3.283 3.563 3.703 3.789 3.683 3.55 3.386 3.344 3.341 3.236 3.106 3.133 3.157 3.309 3.262 3.304 3.278 3.282 3.202 3.153 3.1 2.974 2.924 2.931

Forcible Rape In the U.S. Forcible Rape Rel. Freq. Percentage

4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 3 6 9 4 2 9 0 4 4 1 2 8 2 7 2 6 45 490 288 898 439 969 702 857 800 190 392 684 848 972 021 404 4 2 2 6 2 6 3 9 4 2 7 5 1 2 9 5 3 16 358 401 444 494 550 603 652 702 814 879 936 993 040 093 39 2 23 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 31

Population from 1982-2012

Population: Mean: 271259371.3 Median: 267783607 Mode: N/A

Forcible Rape: Mean: 92851.09677

Min: 231664458 Q1: 249464396 Med: 267783607 Q3: 293656842 Max: 313914040 σ: 25476992.74 IQR= 44192446 Lower Fence: 183175727 --> None Upper Fence: 358945511 --> None

Median: 92486 Mode: N/A

The distribution of the data is fairly close to each other with no major difference in numbers. The relative frequency ranges from 2.737% to 3.789% in the 31 number data. The mean and median for both variables are also relatively similar. Additionally there are no definite outliers present either to throw the data off.

Linear regression equation: ŷ = -3.909815x10^-5 X + 104008.5752 r = -.137 n= 31  r = 0.355 Therefore, there is no correlation.

Forcible rape In The U.S. 115000 110000

Forcible Rape

105000 100000 95000 Forcible rape Linear (Forcible rape)

90000 85000 80000 75000

70000 200000000 220000000 240000000 260000000 280000000 300000000 320000000 Population

Forcible rape In The U.S. 115000 110000

Forcible Rape

105000 100000 95000

Forcible rape

90000 85000 80000 75000 70000 200000000

250000000

300000000

350000000

Population

ŷ = -3.909815x10^-5 X + 104008.5752 1. X= 250,000,000 ŷ = 94234.0377 This prediction can be reliable because 250,000,000 can be included in the data set range. Therefore this is a reliable prediction. 2. X= 200,000,000 X = 200 million would be meaningless to calculate because it is not included in the data set. Therefore it is not possible to calculate ŷ making it not reliable. Ŷ = 90,000 

X= 358,293,449.4

http://www.ucrdatatool.gov/Search/Crime/State/RunCrimeStatebyState.cfm...