T1 Introduction (Introduction to the subject and lecutre material) PDF

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Tema1. Introduccion Ejemplos y temario del tema 1, relacionado con introduccion del curso. Los ejemplos se pueden encontrar en el libro Casal, accesible desde UPC....

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UNIT 1 Introduction CENTRE D’ESTUDIS DEL RISC TECNOLÒGIC

M.Eng in Chemical Engineering - Smart Chemical Factories (SChF)

UNIT 1 Introduction CONTENT

1. 2. 3. 4.

Accidental environmental impact The risk concept Types of accidents The risk management process

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UNIT 1 Introduction

1. Accidental enviromental impact CENTRE D’ESTUDIS DEL RISC TECNOLÒGIC

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UNIT 1 Introduction 1. ACCIDENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT  Technology has evolved very fast during the last century in industrial environments, particular at the chemical industry. The growth of this activities have involved an increase of chemical inventories either in chemical plants, storage facilities and transport. This has lead to an increase of the probability of major accidents with tremendous consequences for people, assets and environment and huge impact on economy

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UNIT 1 Introduction 1. ACCIDENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT Stationary (chronic)

Continous o semicontinuous Low concentration / intensity Easy to foresee Ordinary mitigation measures

Environmental Impact

Accidental (acute)

Indirect effects

Occasional High concentration / intensity Difficult to foresee Extraordinary mitigation measures

Direct effects

To people (fear, anxiety)

To people, assets, environment and economy

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UNIT 1 Introduction 1. ACCIDENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

) Piper Alpha (1988)

1860 1864

1866

… 1957

1974 1976 1979 1984

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1984 1986 1988

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UNIT 1 Introduction 1. ACCIDENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT Lac Megantic (2013)

) Piper Alpha (1988)

1860 1864

1866

… 1957

1974 1976 1979 1984

CENTRE D’ESTUDIS DEL RISC TECNOLÒGIC

Iqoxe (2020)

1984 1986 1988

7

…

2005 2008 2010 2011 2013 2020

M.Eng in Chemical Engineering - Smart Chemical Factories (SChF)

UNIT 1 Introduction 1. ACCIDENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

MAJOR ACCIDENT Any event, such as an emission in the form of a major leak or spill, fire or explosion, which is the result of an uncontrolled process during the operation of any establishment, to which Royal Decree 1254/1999 of 16 July applies, which poses a serious risk situation, immediate or deferred, to people, property and the environment, either inside or outside the establishment, and in which one or various hazardous substances are involved. (RD 840/2015, 21/09/2015, SEVESO III – Directive 2012/18/UE) Accident  category 1: those for which material damage to the injured establishment is foreseen as the only consequence and no damage of any kind is foreseen outside it.  category 2: those for which possible victims and material damage to the establishment are foreseen as consequences; while external repercussions are limited to minor damage or adverse effects on the environment in limited areas.  category 3: those for which possible victims, serious material damage or serious alterations to the environment, in large areas and outside the establishment, are anticipated as consequences.

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Δ Knowledge

Regulations

M.Eng in Chemical Engineering - Smart Chemical Factories (SChF)

UNIT 1 Introduction 1. ACCIDENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT Types of accidents at the chemical industry

Incidence by activity

From MHIDAS database (historical analysis, 20th century)

Transport

17% 40% 18%

Process Plant Storage

TYPE OF ACCIDENTS Release Fire Explosion Toxic cloud

51 % 44 % 36 % 12 %

Other

25%

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UNIT 1 Introduction 1. ACCIDENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT Types of accidents at the chemical industry TYPE OF FIRES (44%) Undetermined Pool fire Tank fire Flash fire Fire ball Jet fire

37 % 1,9 % 1,8 % 1,6 % 1,3 % 0,3 %

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TYPE OF EXPLOSIONS (36%) Undetermined Confined Unconfined BLEVE Physical Dust

27 % 3% 1,9 % 1,4 % 1,2 % 0,9 %

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TYPE OF CLOUDS (12 %) Undetermined Heavy Light

5,9% 5,8 % 0,3 %

M.Eng in Chemical Engineering - Smart Chemical Factories (SChF)

UNIT 1 Introduction 1. ACCIDENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT Tendency of accidents at the chemical industry for the last century

Number of accidents

What should we have to expect for the next 100 years??

Decade CENTRE D’ESTUDIS DEL RISC TECNOLÒGIC

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UNIT 1 Introduction 1. ACCIDENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT Evolution of major accidents in Europe

SEVESO I 2020

1979

Directive 82/501/CEE RD 886/1988

SEVESO II Directive 96/82/CE RD 1254/1999

SEVESO III Directive 2012/18/UE RD 840/2015

https://emars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/en/emars/statistics/statistics CENTRE D’ESTUDIS DEL RISC TECNOLÒGIC

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UNIT 1 Introduction 1. ACCIDENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

Zio, E. (2018). The Future of Risk Assessment. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 177, 176-190.

“Continuous advancements in technical knowledge and technology are improving our production processes, products and services, as well as our environments, while changing the business and work/job scenarios […] Tools responsible of the 4th industrial revolution are changing the way we design, manufacture, supply products and services, the way we move and live in our environment[…]

Production systems and services are becoming more efficient, faster, flexible and resilient […] The innovations that are being developed have high potential of increased wellbeing and benefits, but also generate new failure mechanisms and hazards, and create new risks, partly due also to new and unknown functional and structural dependencies in and among the systems […]”

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UNIT 1 Introduction

2. The risk concept CENTRE D’ESTUDIS DEL RISC TECNOLÒGIC

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UNIT 1 Introduction 2. THE RISK CONCEPT HAZARD RISK

Source of potential damage or harm Potential for uncontrolled loss of something of value

฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ = ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ ฀฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ = ฀฀฀฀

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UNIT 1 Introduction 2. THE RISK CONCEPT Risk calculation easy example If an accident occurs once every 50 years and its consequences are estimated to be 100 fatalities…. If, with the same frequency, it causes financial losses of 30 x 10^6 €…

฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ = ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ ฀฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ = ฀฀฀฀

฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ = �

฀ ฀

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฀฀฀ ฀ ฀฀฀฀

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UNIT 1 Introduction 2. THE RISK CONCEPT Risk tolerability •

A widely accepted criterion in several countries sets the tolerability of the risk generated by a given industrial installation at 10-6 fatalities/year. Type of accident: dying from…

Risk (deaths/year)

Lighting

10-7

Meteorite

6·10-11

Train

5·10-7

Plane

10-5

Car

2.5·10-4

Cigarrette smoking

5·10-3

Sky diving

3·10-4

 The typical tolerable risk threshold represents 10 times the risk of death caused by lighting CENTRE D’ESTUDIS DEL RISC TECNOLÒGIC

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M.Eng in Chemical Engineering - Smart Chemical Factories (SChF)

UNIT 1 Introduction 2. THE RISK CONCEPT Risk tolerability •

A widely accepted criterion in several countries sets the tolerability of the risk generated by a given industrial installation at 10-6 fatalities/year. Type of accident: dying from…

Risk (deaths/year)

Lighting

10-7

Meteorite

6·10-11

Train

5·10-7

Plane

10-5

Car

2.5·10-4

Cigarrette smoking

5·10-3

Sky diving

3·10-4

10-4 fatalities/year

10-6 fatalities/year

ALARP:efforts to reduce risk should be continued until the incremental sacrifice in doing so is grossly disproportionate to the value of the incremental risk reduction achieved CENTRE D’ESTUDIS DEL RISC TECNOLÒGIC

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UNIT 1 Introduction 2. THE RISK CONCEPT Typical risk plots ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ = ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ ฀฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ = ฀฀฀฀

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UNIT 1 Introduction 2. THE RISK CONCEPT Typical risk plots ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ = ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ ฀฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ = ฀฀฀฀

Annual risk in the US due to a variety of hazards CENTRE D’ESTUDIS DEL RISC TECNOLÒGIC

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UNIT 1 Introduction 2. THE RISK CONCEPT Individual risk Individual risk is the risk to which a person in a given location is subjected when exposed to a danger twenty-four hours a day, three hundred and sixty-five days a year. The units by which individual risk is measured are the number of deaths (per person) per year. This risk, then, gives information about the likelihood that a person will die within a year in a particular place. i= n

IR x, y = ∑ IR x , y ,i

IRx,y IRx,y,i

IR x , y ,i = f i ⋅ PFi

fi PFi

individual risk at position (x, y) ( year-1) individual risk at position (x, y) due to accidental scenario i (year-1)

i =1

f i = f incident i ⋅ Psequence i

frequency of accidental scenario i (any-1). probability that the accidental scenario i will cause death at position (x, y). It is obtained by combining accident effects models and vulnerability models.

fincident i frequency of the accident initiating event (year-1) Psequence i global probability of the event sequence leading to the accidental scenario i (-)

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UNIT 1 Introduction 2. THE RISK CONCEPT Individual risk – Risk maps Centre d’Estudis del Risc Tecnològic Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya

Risk distribution in a particular area can be plotted using risk maps, in which a series of constant risk lines, similar to level curves, show how individual risk varies on the ground. A constant risk line or isorisk line is the one that joins all the geographical points around a facility in which the frequency of death is the same.

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EMPRESA: 1·10 -4 CORBES D’ISORISC

1·10 1·10 1·10

23

-5 -6 -7

any-1 -1

any

-1

any

any-1

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UNIT 1 Introduction 2. THE RISK CONCEPT Social or collective risk Social risk is the total number of deaths expected per year. It is calculated by considering the demographics of the area affected by one or more of the given accidental scenarios. ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ = � ฀฀฀฀฀฀,฀ ฀ � ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ (฀฀, ฀฀) ฀฀฀฀ ฀฀฀฀

N curves, showing the mulative frequency of idents that cause N or re deaths/year based on N.

g in Chemical Engineering - Smart Chemical Factories (SChF)

UNIT 1 Introduction 2. THE RISK CONCEPT Individual and social risk example In a plant there is a chlorine tank. To the south, 200 meters away, there are 120 people. In the event of a catastrophic collapse of the tank (estimated frequency: 5 x 10-6 years-1), if the cloud reaches the population, the mortality will be 50%. For 60% of the time the wind blows from the north. Calculate individual risk and social risk.

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UNIT 1 Introduction

3. Types of accidents CENTRE D’ESTUDIS DEL RISC TECNOLÒGIC

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UNIT 1 Introduction 3. TYPE OF ACCIDENTS

Chemical Factories (SChF)

UNIT 1 Introduction 3. TYPE OF ACCIDENTS The magnitude of risk  Inventory  Energy factor  Time factor  Exposure factor Accident Fire

Effects distance range 50 – 100 m

Explosion

100 – 1000 m

Flashfire

100 – 1000 m

BLEVE

1100 m

Toxic cloud

1 – 3 km CENTRE D’ESTUDIS DEL RISC TECNOLÒGIC

Consequences?? 28

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UNIT 1 Introduction 3. TYPE OF ACCIDENTS The consequences of accidents DAMAGE TO HUMAN LIFE -

Dead Injured Intervention Evacuation

DAMAGE TO THE ENVIRONMENT -

Biosphere Air Water Ground

ÒGIC

-

MATERIAL DAMAGE

BENEFIT LOSS

Storage tanks Warehouses Process equipment Services Roads / Rail Buildings

- Production disruption - Responsibilities - Image loss

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UNIT 1 Introduction 3. TYPE OF ACCIDENTS The domino effect The domino effect can be defined as a sequence of events in which the consequences of the first accident are increased spatially and temporally by the following ones. Within a facility

From neighboring facilities

Over neighboring facilities

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UNIT 1 Introduction 3. TYPE OF ACCIDENTS The domino effect - example

Accident at the Priolo refinery (Sicilia, 1985)

0.6 m φ 18.2 bar

8 LPG tanks

16 m, 1 m φ

40 m

60 m, 15 m φ

calderí 4m

Losses: 65·106 $ CENTRE D’ESTUDIS DEL RISC TECNOLÒGIC

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UNIT 1 Introduction

4. The risk management process CENTRE D’ESTUDIS DEL RISC TECNOLÒGIC

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UNIT 1 Introduction 4. THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS The ISO 31000 process

Company, process, type of risk under study, policies, etc.

Establishing Context Risk Assessment Process of characterising identified risks, through QIRA and/or QnRA Communication & consultation

Formal processes of finding, recognizing, and describing hazards

Risk Identification

Monitoring & review

Risk Analysis

Risk Evaluation

Risk action plans relating to the general strategies of elimination, prevention, mitigation, adaptation CENTRE D’ESTUDIS DEL RISC TECNOLÒGIC

Assessing each risk against external criteria to see whether the risk is acceptable or tolerable to the project

Risk Treatment

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UNIT 1 Introduction 4. THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS Quantitative Risk Analysis

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