An Introduction to Project Modeling and Planning PDF

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Gündüz Ulusoy • Öncü Hazır

An Introduction to Project Modeling and Planning

Gündüz Ulusoy Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences Sabancı University Orhanlı, Tuzla, Istanbul, Turkey

Öncü Hazır Rennes School of Business Rennes, France

ISSN 2192-4333 ISSN 2192-4341 (electronic) Springer Texts in Business and Economics ISBN 978-3-030-61422-5 ISBN 978-3-030-61423-2 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61423-2 # Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

Preface

Although a large number of projects have been conceived, planned, and completed since the times of ancient civilizations, it was only in the 1950s that project management emerged as a discipline with the introduction of the Critical Path Method (CPM) and the Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). Drawing upon theoretical developments contributed by numerous researchers and practice over a wide spectrum of application areas distributed globally, the knowledge base of project management has been growing ever since at an increasing rate. The advances in Operation Research methods and the capabilities of the optimization solvers have contributed considerably to the theoretical development of project management. Interest and activity in areas like resource constrained project scheduling, uncertainty, and robustness have been growing rapidly as attested by the large number of journal papers published globally each year. The practice of project management in organizations has also been growing steadily, supported by the emergence of matrix type and project-based organizations. The organizations dealing with new technologies and business models emerging in the last decades organize many of their activities such as new product development, innovation management, and app development as projects. Project management offers a promising field for theoretical and practical applications and developing related software and Decision Support Systems. It attracts not only academicians and software providers, but also professionals who take part in project management activities. Considering this diverse audience, this book aims at explaining the basic concepts and methods of project management, especially project planning and scheduling with an emphasis on mathematical modeling. The motivation for this textbook is based on two observations: First, courses dealing with project management in some context are proliferating in engineering schools and becoming attractive for engineering students as it has been the case for some time now for business students. Second, particularly the developments in quantitative methods achieved in the last decades, especially the very significant increase in the power of optimization and simulation software, need to find their way into undergraduate and master’s classrooms to become in due time part of routine professional practice.

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This textbook is intended to provide theoretical and practical aspects of project planning, modeling, and scheduling to undergraduates and first year graduate students in engineering programs, as well as to practitioners seeking to solidify their knowledge of project management. Most of the material covered in this textbook emerged from the class notes shared with the students at both undergraduate and graduate levels and has been improved over the years by their remarks and suggestions, for which we are grateful. The models and algorithms presented in the following chapters establish a good starting point to study the relevant literature and pursue academic work in related fields. Theory is discussed at the introductory and moderate levels, and related references are given for those who want to pursue more detailed analysis. A central feature of the book is the support provided for the theoretical concepts through models with detailed explanations, application examples, and case studies. Discussions and analyses are based on real-life problems. All chapters include exercises that require critical thinking, interpretation, analytics, and making choices. A solution manual for these exercises will be provided online. The textbook is organized to enable interdisciplinary research and education, interactive discussions, and learning. Learning outcomes are defined, and the content of the book is structured in accordance with these goals. Chapter 1 introduces the basic concepts, methods, and processes in managing projects. This chapter constitutes the base for defining and modeling project management problems. Chapter 2 discusses project management from an organizational perspective, dealing with the fundamentals of organizing and managing projects. Project-based organizations have gained increasing importance in the last decades. Many firms are organized around projects and operate in a multi-project environment. Issues related to project team formation, the role of project managers, and matrix organization are discussed. Recent developments in the organization of projects, such as the adoption of agile techniques and establishing project management offices, are discussed. Chapter 3 is devoted to project planning and network modeling of projects, covering fundamental concepts such as project scope, Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), Organizational Breakdown Structure (OBS), Cost Breakdown Structure (CBS), project network modeling, activity duration and cost estimating, activitybased costing (ABC), and data and knowledge management. Schedules determine when projects can be delivered, intervals when each activity needs to be performed, and how resources are assigned to activities and present multiple decision problems. In Chap. 4, we deal with a decision environment where we assume that the decision-makers know the problem parameters precisely and no constraints are imposed on the resource usage. Models employing time-based and finance-based objectives are introduced. We use Operations Research techniques to formulate and solve these deterministic scheduling models for constructing the time schedules as mathematical programming problems. The CPM is covered, resulting in a baseline project schedule, the project duration, the critical path, and the critical activities. The unconstrained version of maximizing Net Present Value (NPV) is also treated here together with the case of time-dependent cash flows. Continuous

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tracking of the project plan and associated data and relationships allow it to be revised through replanning whenever deemed necessary. A case study on installing a plant biotechnology lab is presented. In project management, it is often possible to reduce the duration of some activities and expedite the completion of the project by incurring additional costs. The resulting time/cost trade-off problem has been widely studied in the literature, and Chap. 5 addresses this important topic for both the continuous and discrete cases. Chapter 4 introduced project scheduling in a deterministic decision environment. However, in reality, project managers have at best limited information on the parameters of the decision environment in many cases. For this reason, Chap. 6 discusses models and methods of scheduling under uncertain activity durations. PERT is introduced for minimizing the expected project duration and extended to the PERT-Costing method for minimizing the expected project cost. Simulation is presented as another approach for dealing with the uncertainty in activity durations and costs. To demonstrate the use of the PERT, a case study on constructing an earthquake resistant residential house is presented. Another important topic for a more realistic representation of the decision environment is the integration of the resource constraints into the mathematical models since in almost all projects, activities compete for scarce resources. Classifications of resource and schedule types are given in Chap. 7, and exact and heuristic solution procedures for the single- and multi-mode resource constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP) are presented. The objective of maximizing NPV under resource constraints is addressed, and the capital constrained project scheduling model is introduced. In Chap. 8, resource leveling and further resource management problems are introduced. Two problems associated with resource leveling are discussed, namely total adjustment cost and resource availability cost problems. Various exact models are investigated. A heuristic solution procedure for the resource leveling problem is presented in detail. In addition, resource portfolio management policies and the resource portfolio management problem are discussed. A case study on resource leveling dealing with the annual audit project of a major corporation is presented. Project contract types and payment schedules constitute the topics of Chap. 9. Contracts are legal documents reflecting the results of some form of client–contractor negotiations and sometimes of a bidding process, which deserve closer attention. Identification and allocation of risk in contracts, project control issues, disputes, and resolution management are further topics covered in this chapter. A bidding model is presented to investigate client–contractor negotiations and the bidding process from different aspects. Along with planning and scheduling, project monitoring and control are important responsibilities of project managers. Whereas monitoring the project includes actions to collect, record, and present project realization data, control covers the analysis of the data with the purpose of preparation of action plans to eliminate the deviations from the current plan. Chapter 10 focuses on processes and methods for

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monitoring and control. Earned Value Management is studied to measure the project performance throughout the life of a project and to estimate the expected project time and cost based on the current status of the project. How to incorporate inflation into the analysis is presented. Risk management is essential for effective project management. In Chap. 11, qualitative and quantitative techniques including decision trees, simulation, and software applications are introduced. Risk phases are defined and building a risk register is addressed. An example risk breakdown structure is presented. The design of risk management processes is introduced, and risk response planning strategies are discussed. At the end of the chapter, the quantitative risk analysis is demonstrated at the hand of a team discussion case study. Uncertainty in project schedules has been a topic of great interest for both researchers and practitioners, accumulating a rich literature over the last decades. Chapter 12 covers several models and approaches dealing with various stochastic aspects of the decision environment. Stochastic models, generation of robust schedules, and use of reactive and fuzzy approaches are presented. Sensitivity and scenario analysis are introduced. In addition, simulation analysis, which is widely used to analyze the impacts of uncertainty on project goals, is presented. Chapter 13 addresses repetitive projects that involve the production or construction of similar units in batches such as railway cars or residential houses. Particularly in the construction industry, repetitive projects represent a large portion of the work accomplished in this sector of the economy. A case study on the 50 km Gebze– Orhangazi Section of the Gebze–Izmir Motorway Project is used for demonstrating the handling of repetitive project management. How best to select one or more of a set of candidate projects to maintain a project portfolio is an important problem for project-based organizations with limited resources. The project selection problem is inherently a multi-objective problem and is treated as such in Chap. 14. Several models and solution techniques are introduced. A multi-objective, multi-period project selection and scheduling model is presented. A case study that addresses a project portfolio selection and scheduling problem for the construction of a set of dams in a region is presented. Chapter 15 discusses three promising research areas in project management in detail: (i) Sustainability and Project Management, (ii) Project Management in the Era of Big Data, and (iii) the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the New Age Project Management. We elaborate on the importance of sustainability in project management practices, discuss how developments in data analytics might impact project life cycle management, and speculate how the infinite possibilities of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the new technologies will transform project management practices. In the several years of teaching and research on project management, we are indebted to many researchers and practitioners whose work motivated and guided us in our efforts to write this book. We are particularly grateful to Professor Reha Uzsoy, who has been extremely generous with his time going over several versions of the manuscript and making a large number of suggestions for improvement. We have also benefited greatly from the critical remarks made by Professor Kuban

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Altınel and thank him for that. We also would like to thank two PhD students, Nozir Shokirov and Ahmed Faran, for their contributions to the case studies and the Solution Manual. The responsibility for any remaining errors obviously rests solely with us. Istanbul, Turkey Rennes, France September 2020

Gündüz Ulusoy Öncü Hazır

Acknowledgement

With love and gratitude to my wife Nefise Ulusoy and my parents Zeynep and Halit Ulusoy

With love to my wife Çilem Selin Hazır

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Contents

1

Introduction to Project Modeling and Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 What Is a Project? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Project Management in Today’s World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Challenges in Keeping to Scope, Cost, and Schedule Targets . . . 1.4 A Life Cycle Concept for Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4.1 Conceptual Design and Project Definition . . . . . . . . . . 1.4.2 Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4.3 Implementation, Monitoring, and Control . . . . . . . . . . 1.4.4 Evaluation and Termination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 Post-Project Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 Uncertainty and Risks in Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 Project Modeling and Planning Tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 Resource Constrained Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 Agile Project Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 1 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 12 13 16 17 18 19

2

Organizing and Managing Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 Projects and Organizational Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.1 Functional Organizations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.2 Project Organizations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.3 Matrix Organizations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 How to Choose the Project Management Structure? . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Stakeholder Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 Project Management Culture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 Organizing Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5.1 Steering Committee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5.2 Project Sponsor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5.3 Project Manager . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5.4 Project Team and Team Members . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5.5 Project Meetings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 Project Management Office . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 Program Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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2.8 2.9 2.10

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4

Project Portfolio Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agile Project Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Conclusions, Recent Developments, and Some Future Research Directions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Planning and Network Modeling of Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 Project Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1.1 Project Charter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 Work Breakdown Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.1 Decomposition of WBS into Work Packages . . . . . . . . 3.2.2 Types of WBS Representation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.3 Gantt Chart Representation of Work Packages . . . . . . . 3.2.4 Organizational Breakdown Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.5 Cost Breakdown Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 Network Modeling of Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.1 Types of Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.2 Network Modeling of Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.3 Activity on Arc Type Representation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.4 Activity on Node Type Representation . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.5 Generalized Precedence Relationships . ....