Analysis of the \"Invisible Primary\" in 2016 \'s Republican Party - How Mr. President \"Trumped\" the Primaries-2 PDF

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Analysis of the "Invisible Primary" in 2016 's Republican Party - How Mr. President "Trumped" the Primaries-2...

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Duque 1 Research Paper

Brianna Duque Student ID #: 3578677 Kevin Evans 04/10/17

Analysis of the “Invisible Primary”: How Mr. President Trumped the 2016 GOP Primaries The 2016 elections surprisingly yielded in Mr. Donald Trump’s victory. Polls steadily reflected confirmation of Ms. Hilary Clinton throughout the campaign, suggesting, only a pathetic 15 percent chance of Donald Trump winning. With nearly every analyst claiming that his defeat was inevitable, it is no wonder that many American’s were in disbelief of the outcome. In effort to better understand exactly how this happened and what it may mean going forward, the following text will examine and determine the Republican Party’s presidential nomination contest in this election and explain just how influential (or not) the invisible primary was. After careful analysis, it can be inferred that Trump’s success is the result of a combination of various, unprecedented factors.

Such factors can be explained by an increase and change in media

coverage, the GOP’s stance remaining profoundly split on decisions, proving their inability to form a united front, while revealing an ever-increasing intra-party conflict, thus, the passing on of greater decision-making power to the voters, and confirm that voter rejections of anti-Trump indications highlight the possible declining control of the National Republican Party.

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Our current presidential primaries system was established in 1972, following the McGovernFraser reforms, which ensure greater voter input through the process of voters choosing majority delegates using primaries and caucuses. When it comes to settling on an acceptable candidate and putting them in office, an important political party resource is endorsements. Considering that parties consist of different groups that share a common political purpose within an overall party affiliation, it is natural that these preferences sometimes conflict, making it imperative to select a candidate that represents the parties core interests as whole. To accomplish this, party insiders will tip off one another as to which candidate they deem acceptable and then throw their weight behind the candidate in attempt of securing a win in the primaries. This provides party insiders with a vehicle of control in the determining of a presidential nominee. In a book entitled The Party Decides, the authors refer to this as the ‘invisible primary.’ In examining multiple contests, the authors found that “endorsements are the most important predictor of success in the primaries,”1 however, endorsements exposed from 2016’s primary contrast greatly with their predictions. In fact, not a single candidate won the majority and fewer were endorsed than in any other presidential primary since at least 1976!2 Since the party could not agree, voters were

1 Setzer, Elliot, and Elliot Setzer Elliot Is a First Year Student at Deep Springs College, a Two-year Liberal Arts College in Eastern California That Combines Academics with Ranch Work. He Is Interested in International Relations, Public Health and Political Philosophy. A Lester B. Pearson United World College Graduate, He Is an Executive Editor with Fox & Hedgehog. "Life of the Party: Trump and the Presidential Nomination." Fox & Hedgehog. February 06, 2017. Accessed April 02, 2017. http://www.foxhedgehog.com/2017/02/life-of-the-partytrump-and-the-presidential-nomination/. 2 Setzer, Elliot, and Elliot Setzer Elliot Is a First Year Student at Deep Springs College, a Two-year Liberal Arts College in Eastern California That Combines Academics with Ranch Work. He Is Interested in International Relations, Public Health and Political Philosophy. A Lester B. Pearson United World College Graduate, He Is an Executive Editor with Fox & Hedgehog. "Life of the Party: Trump and the Presidential Nomination." Fox & Hedgehog. February 06, 2017. Accessed April 02, 2017. http://www.foxhedgehog.com/2017/02/life-of-the-partytrump-and-the-presidential-nomination/.

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given the decision-making power. Due to the endless amount of intra-party disagreements and profound rift regarding endorsements among the GOP’s, the invisible primary played an insufficient role in shaping this election’s primary nominations.

Endorsements played an unsubstantial role, lending influential opportunity to other factors and contributed to the significant impact imposed by the media in this specific primary. “In 2015, Trump received over $55 million dollars in ‘free media,’ thus limiting the extent to which he needed to advertise. In contrast, Rubio received only $34 million, and Cruz only $32.5 million in free media.3” The main campaign resources utilized throughout his nomination consisted of media coverage featuring presidential debates, the campaign trail, and stories exacerbating inequalities in name recognition. “During the invisible primary, only 12 percent of Trump’s coverage addressed his issue stands and political beliefs. In contrast, 56 percent of what was reported about Trump was centered on polls and projections and framed around his move to the top. During the presidential primaries in early 2016, substantive concerns—including candidates’ policy positions, their personal characteristics, their histories, and group commitments for candidates—made up only 11% of news coverage. Again, the majority focused on Trump’s victories in the competitive game. Research has demonstrated that voters are attracted to candidates in large part because they appear most politically viable, such coverage likely

3 Setzer, Elliot, and Elliot Setzer Elliot Is a First Year Student at Deep Springs College, a Two-year Liberal Arts College in Eastern California That Combines Academics with Ranch Work. He Is Interested in International Relations, Public Health and Political Philosophy. A Lester B. Pearson United World College Graduate, He Is an Executive Editor with Fox & Hedgehog. "Life of the Party: Trump and the Presidential Nomination." Fox & Hedgehog. February 06, 2017. Accessed April 02, 2017. http://www.foxhedgehog.com/2017/02/life-of-the-partytrump-and-the-presidential-nomination/.

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benefitted Trump in the primaries.”4 Overall, there has been a steady increase in the number of viewers tuning into political media coverage, particularly, in the audience for debates. The very first GOP debate in August of 2015 made cable television history, as it was the most watched non-sport event ever. Such exposure provides candidates that have little party establishment support an opportunity to get voter’s attention and gain support. These changes in the media have made the once “invisible primary” more visible, also suggesting that a growing number of voters are becoming more politically interested. Contributing to less invisible primary actions are journalists via websites which keep readers updated on the results of the “endorsement primary,” among other election current events. In turn making it more challenging for party insiders to leverage potential acceptable candidates. “While Trump’s nomination is unparalleled, recent contests have also seen stronger-than-expected performances from outsider candidates like Howard Dean and Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side. Perhaps the power of party insiders is waning overall.”5

4 Setzer, Elliot, and Elliot Setzer Elliot Is a First Year Student at Deep Springs College, a Two-year Liberal Arts College in Eastern California That Combines Academics with Ranch Work. He Is Interested in International Relations, Public Health and Political Philosophy. A Lester B. Pearson United World College Graduate, He Is an Executive Editor with Fox & Hedgehog. "Life of the Party: Trump and the Presidential Nomination." Fox & Hedgehog. February 06, 2017. Accessed April 02, 2017. http://www.foxhedgehog.com/2017/02/life-of-the-partytrump-and-the-presidential-nomination/. 5 Setzer, Elliot, and Elliot Setzer Elliot Is a First Year Student at Deep Springs College, a Two-year Liberal Arts College in Eastern California That Combines Academics with Ranch Work. He Is Interested in International Relations, Public Health and Political Philosophy. A Lester B. Pearson United World College Graduate, He Is an Executive Editor with Fox & Hedgehog. "Life of the Party: Trump and the Presidential Nomination." Fox & Hedgehog. February 06, 2017. Accessed April 02, 2017. http://www.foxhedgehog.com/2017/02/life-of-the-partytrump-and-the-presidential-nomination/.

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Many political party members made their disapproval of Trump clear throughout this election, yet, voters rejected such indications. Inadequate control of voters can possibly be highlighting the declining influence of the National Republican Party and their unstable coalition. The first sign of divisions between tea party conservatives and the GOP’s establishment wing are thought to be initiated by early 2011 disagreements over the size of budget cuts and have since continued to grow. The lesson expressed in The Party Decides text downplays the intended motives that are possible to impede party alignment, in addition to, the forces compelling such antagonism in nominations.

Perhaps the overall power of party insiders is crumpling, a realignment of the

Republican coalition may be ahead.

President Trump’s triumphant outcome was the result of a combination of heightened media coverage, the GOP’s increasing intra-party conflicts and their inability to form a united front behind a preferred candidate. An increase in voter’s political interest attributes to a growing number of viewers tuning into debates and staying updated on primary events through journals on popular websites. With this trend continuing to expand, the role lead by political parties in shaping nomination outcomes can be expected to decline. This election differed greatly than that of previous ones, as voters had the deciding power in the primaries, instead of political parties. Unless party insiders learn how to avoid the circumstances which led to this outcome, a realignment of the Republican coalition may be expected.

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References Bycoffe. "A Huge Number Of GOP Leaders Aren't Endorsing This Year." FiveThirtyEight. April 15, 2016. Accessed April 05, 2017. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-huge-number-of-gopleaders-arent-endorsing-this-year/. Cohen, Marty. The party decides: presidential nominations before and after reform. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2008. Kamarck, Elaine C. Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know about How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates. Brookings Institution Press, 2016. Setzer, Elliot, and Elliot Setzer Elliot Is a First Year Student at Deep Springs College, a Two-year Liberal Arts College in Eastern California That Combines Academics with Ranch Work. He Is Interested in International Relations, Public Health and Political Philosophy. A Lester B. Pearson United World College Graduate, He Is an Executive Editor with Fox & Hedgehog. "Life of the Party: Trump and the Presidential Nomination." Fox & Hedgehog. February 06, 2017. Accessed April 02, 2017. http://www.foxhedgehog.com/2017/02/life-of-the-party-trump-and-thepresidential-nomination/. Wayne, Stephen J. The road to the White House 2016. Australia: Cengage Learning, 2016. In Campaigns, Elections & Parties, Papers, Politics & Government, Research. "Pre-Primary News Coverage of the 2016 Presidential Race: Trump's Rise, Sanders' Emergence, Clinton's Struggle." Shorenstein Center. December 07, 2016. Accessed April 05, 2017. https://shorensteincenter.org/pre-primary-news-coverage-2016-trump-clinton-sanders/. Congressional Quarterly/© 2015 CQ-Roll Call, Inc. "Why Everyone (in Congress) Hates Ted Cruz." Daily Intelligencer. Accessed April 05, 2017. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/12/why-everyone-in-congress-hates-ted-cruz.html....