AREC365 Notes PDF

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These are my personal notes from the Fall 2017 semester at University of Maryland College Park. I highlighted and added things that were said in the lectures that the professors and aids would make clear would be on exams....

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AREC365 9/1 Five famines in textbook: - Irish potato - Ukrainian - Chinese ‘Great Leap Forward’ - Southern African - North Korean The people who suffer from famine are: -

People with crop failure People with insufficient funds to crop

Here is a possible response to famine: o The rains fail for three years in a row o In the first year of failure families can rely on what they have stored and what they can borrow from family and friends to make up for the shortfall harvest. o In the second year they begin to starve because their storage stocks are almost finished and their friends have nothing to spare o In the third year their starvation becomes extreme and people begin to die in large quantities While this is going on the rains return and the families are only just able to plant in hopes of a new crop Ways we have found at preventing famine: - Having good governments in a particular country - Early warning, rapid response - Aggregate food availability - Distribution policies - Stabilization policies 9/6 The Millennium Development Goals are eight goals that all 191 UN member states have agreed to try to achieve by the year 2015. The UN Millennium Declaration, signed in September 2000, is the formal decision of goals. The Goals were signed in 2000, but around 2005 is when people started to notice, “Hey, maybe we should do something about this”

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Target 1: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day Target 2: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. -

53% of all deaths under five can be linked to malnutrition

Goal 5: Improve maternal health Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases

Nutrient: Malnutrition: over or under consumption of any essential nutrient. Malnutrition can be classified into four types: o over nutrition o dietary deficiency o secondary malnutrition: celiac’s disease, bulima, anorexia o under nutrition The Big Three Iodine deficiency: cretinism, loss of IQ, poor brain function, goiter, perhaps the largest preventable cause of mental retardation? Vitamin A deficiency: night-blindness, death from respiratory, gastro-intestinal disease Iron deficiency: tiredness, reduce capacity to work, increased susceptibility to infection. 9/13 We tend to get enough protein, just not enough calories - We can describe a policy cycle in the following simple manner: 1. Measure 2. Identify the problem 3. Design a policy to address the problem 4. Implement Policy 5. Re-measure 9/20

Policy with Calorie or Protein deficiency A few of the problems that can be encountered when distributing food    

Getting the food to people who need it is very difficult and potentially expensive The food is not valuable. People might step it or lie about needing it We probably shouldn’t be giving it away - successful programs will work on ways to assist people to produce their own food No one program is likely to complete all needs

This is where we us policy, to try and pick the program that helps the most people (and hopefully the most needy people) at the lowest cost. But when we use this policy, ew need to know it is working. We can’t measure success by asking Measure undernutrition:  Direct measurement actual conditions to ideal conditions  Evidence based on impacts o Inferred from physical measures compared to known standards o Inferred from clinical outcomes Isn’t there a standard for what people should get to be healthy?  Determine the appropriate standard for the individual  Determine whether the individual’s consumption is above or below the standard In the US, we have the recommended daily value of a series of vitamins, minerals, protein, fat, and calories. It is common to measure poverty, hunger, malnutrition, etc, s a comparison to some reference group.  

Think of the differences between “average” and “normal” In this setting we want to find out how different was a person can be “normal healthy” and then ask if a particular individual fits into one of those categories. The person may not be “ideal” or “average”

US (RDA) is measured based off of the 97th percentile of nutritional requirements of the healthy reference group (or the average requirements plus two standard deviations of the requirement) EAR is the average recommended intake of a macro or micro nutrient 9/22 Normail distribution:

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the mean is the median the mean plus on standard deviation is the 84th percentile the mean minus one standard deviation is the 16th percentile 95% of all the observations are contained within the interval : [ the mean – 2 SD and the mean + two SD]. (This is only approximately – 1.96)

Base lie measure: median weight for age fro reference with the population Not malnourished: Normal, any child weighing greater than 90% of median weight for age First degree malnutrition: mildly malnourished – any child weighing less than 90% of the median weight for age but more than 75 percent of the median Second degree malnutrition: moderately malnourished – any child weighing less than 75% of the median weight for age but more than 60 percent of the median Third degree malnutrition: severely malnourished – any child weighing less than 60% of the median value. Reference arm circumference for children from 1 to 5 16.5 cm Normal arm circumference for children from 1 to 5: Greater than 14 cm (85% of standard) Arm circumference of undernourished child: 12.5 to 14 cm Arm circumference of severely undernourished child: less than 12.5 cm The average of a z-score is zero -

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it is far more accurate to measure malnutrition by having a doctor examine the person for signs of malnutrition. Many signs of malnutrition, especially micro-nutrient malnutrition are relatively easy for a doctor to spot. Biochemical measures: ie, blood sample

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Food is almost always consumed in a household setting so you cannot just measure the amount purchased or cooked, you need an idea of who eats what People don’t even remember the food they consumed even yesterday May be appropriate in scientific or policy research Is not a good way to find target populations or follow trends over large populations May cause problems with protection of human subjects rules and basic ethics

Aggregate data that indicate malnutrition:

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Low birth weights High infant mortality Food balance sheets

Symptoms: - Weight - Height - Age of first period or menarche - Child mortality - IQ and Productivity -

Lack of nutrition can also delay ovulation after pregnancy

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Women who cannot get enough to eat should be pregnant less.

That malnutrition impacts child mortality seems obvious, but there are three important aspects of this - They do not have to die of hunger, but hunger will leave them susceptible to other causes of death - At almost every level – from severe malnutrition to mild malnutrition or (about 80% of the median weight for the age) more food makes children more likely to live - The number of deaths are staggering *This means we don’t have to solve all of the worlds problems to save a fantastic number of children from death… even small changes would make a difference Measured in Poor Ecuadorian Children - Hemoglobin: iron content in the blood - Height - Fine motor control - TVIP score Test de Vocabulario en Imagenes Peabody) - W-JI 9/27 -

If I give parents more money, cognitive ability of their children would rise Low iron results in fatigue and an inability to do work Escape hunger by working harder and going to get a job to then buy better food Example from the textbook: In China, giving supplements to cotton-mill workers increased their hemoglobin and their work effort In Sierra Leone, for people consuming less than 1500 calories a day, a 50 percent increase in calories increased work effort by 25%. Developmental traps are part of the argument but forward by Jeff Sachs for his approach to the Millennium Development Goals

o There is some debate among social scientists about whether poverty traps exist, and if they do exist, whether they matter o The difference between an individual being able to escape their own, and an individual escaping under any circumstances is outside help – they cannot escape their own, but they can with outside help 10/2 Who is hungry and where? -

Regions Countries Types of countries Climatic regions Seasons

We tend to use non-political divisions The region with the largest number of undernourished people is Asia, but the region with greatest pro-portion is Sub-Saharan African -

Note that the number of hungry people in Africa has increased every year since 1970 Hunger is not uniform within a region North Korea and Haiti are examples of countries that so not fit in their regions, by hunger statistics Note that even though many African countries are on the list, in the Table 6.5, most are not. But the numbers by calories, undernourished, infant death rates, and height all bring up slightly different patterns. Caloric consumption changes with the season India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh all stand out, were all originally part of the same country, and despite large differences in religious beliefs, they are culturally somewhat similar on the surface. And they are very densely populated.

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Infant mortality is a bigger problem

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The treatment of women in Africa and Asia is very different – not better or worse, but different

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Remember children who are breast fed are healthier, even if they live in households where their mothers suffer from mild to moderate undernutrition.

10/6

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Ethiopia These People are very hungry, but their values are still intact Documentary Film: you make a film and just film it, no edits made Demand Curve: A graphical representation of the relationship between the price of a good and the number of units that would be purchased o The demand curve is ‘always’ downward sloping o Coming from either or both of the two sources:  Diminishing marginal utility (each successive item is less valuable than the previous one)  Heterogeneity (differences) in the demand for a good in society (some people are willing to pay more and some are willing to pay less) o The Demand Curve represents a series of possible points, but only one point is relevant at any particular time Supply Cure: A graphical representation of the relationship between the price of a good and the number of units that would be supplied. It is usually a sectoral or country-wide curve. o The supply curve is ‘always’ upwards sloping o The upward slope of the supply curve can be easiest thought of as coming from either or both of the two sources:  Diminishing marginal productivity of inputs (as any factory produces more and more of the good, the productivity of factors used declines). Elasticity: % change in consumption / % change in price It turns out that we can use this concept for a lot of things Own price elasticity of demand: Percentage in quantity demanded (consumption) with a one percent change in price Income elasticity of demand: Percentage change in quantity demanded with a one percent change in the price of another good Cross price elasticity: Percentage change in quantity demanded with a one percent change in the price of another good o Inelastic: income elasticity of demand is 0.5 o Elastic:

10/9 Engel’s Law: The proportion of household budget spent on food decreases as income increases There are two parts to this o As income increases people spend more money on food o As income increases the share of their budget on food decreases Bennett’s Law: The composition of what is on one’s plate when rich or poor 10/11

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Pork. The average price elasticity of demand for pork is -1.01. If the price decreases by 10% the quantity demanded will decrease by about the same amount. Conversely, if quantity supplied (therefore demanded) increases by 10% then the price will decrease by 10% / -1.01, or a little less than 10% (rounded up to 10%). Cassava. The average price elasticity of demand

What is the price elasticity of supply? ‘very short run’ : If the price goes up today, will farmers supply more tomorrow? o Sell from stores o Harvest more carefully or intensively o Save less for the future (put less in stores) o Consume less for themselves ‘short run’ : If the price goes up today, will farmers supply more in one year? o Plant more (if they have more land) o Leave less land unused o Plant more of the crop with high price, less of the crop with low price o Work the land harder, use more inputs ‘long run’: If the price goes up today, will farmers supply more in two or three years? o Get more land for the crop o New people become farmers ‘very long run’: If the price goes up today, will farmers supply more in five years? o Discover new technologies and techniques Some definitions: Price: the price of food C: The amount of food Q: The amount (quantity) of food I produce FPD: food production deficit: the difference between what I eat and what I grow (C-Q), for most of you the amount you eat. Value FPD: Value of food production deficit : P(C-Q) IA: Income and liquid assets available to purchase food 10/13 -

Food production grow arithmetically o Essentially food grows at the same constant rate every year because we have the same resources available each year to expand production (Land).

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o For example, if we expand the amount of land available by 100 units every year, we get a series that looks like this: 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, etc. Human populations grow geometrically o Essentially, human population grows at an increasing rate because the growth is on the basis of the current population; growth in population comes from population, not from fixed resources. o For example if 2 people have 2 kids each (4 per family) and then die population looks like this: 2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024,etc. Food production grows arithmetically o He was wrong because there are more humans available to expand production and because the biggest expansions in agricultural production come from technology, not from increasing the amount of land in production Human populations grow geometrically o He was wrong because humans do not increase their populations automatically. Fertility is not a function of how many fertile men and women are present in society, it is a function of how many children people want to have. Humans are smart enough to change this number.

10/16 *population level never comes down -> goes from small -> to large 10/18 -

What limits the amount of food we can produce, or the number of calories that people can consume? o Land o Labor o Water o Productivity and technology o Post production losses o Environment o Health care

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Since we have already said that there is enough food to feed everyone in the world, distribution should at the very least be discussed. If we could redistribute the world’s food from those who have too much to those who have too little, we would solve the problem, right? What do we know about the distribution of income and food?

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Lorenz Curves and Gini Coefficient

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Line is 45 Degree line – fair proportion

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Gini Coefficient = goes from 0 to 1

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The value of goods and services produced is translated into dollars using the market exchange rate Countries that grow start with low inqeaulity Increasing inequality can be a sign of anything, it does not mean that a country is growing

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The Kuznet’s curve, or hypothesis, is based on the empirical observation that during the process of growth most countries experience an increase in income inequality that is followed by an eventual decrease

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Examples of inequality o o o o o o o o

Innate inability Slaves Differences in humane capital Differences in family background Differences in the labor markets Discrimination Life cycle Randomness

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The amount of food necessary to feed people can vary by more than just the number of people. As we discussed it earlier, it can depend on o The number of children o The

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We know that as incomes increase, people will eat more, and not just the poor – but the rich as well. 1 cow calorie = 6 calories in corn

10/30

Labor is used for o plowing land o planting

o weeding o harvesting o storing food -

Remember our job is not just to feed the poor, but to make sure the poor a buy the food they need. There is plenty of water, the problem is that it is in the wrong places at the wrong times Increase in irrigation in China Agriculture changes the local + agriculture environments

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Additional problems: o Health issues of farm workers and local populations due to chemical usage or water quality changes o Loss of genetic diversity o Energy use in

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Land derogation, lower water quality, and contamination can affect agricultural productivity, sometimes to the point that the land is no longer useable for agriculture. The use of fertilizer could be a big problem, and derogation practices on much of our land may not be sustainable But it could also not be a big problem because we continually develop new technologies to improve productive capacity with less environmental impact. For example: o Pest resistant plants o Methods to reduce erosion o Drip irrigation

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Global Warming: Greenhouse gases and Agricultural Production o Agriculture produces a significant amount of greenhouse gases: o Methane (cattle and rice) o Carbon dioxide (deforestation in tropical areas) o Nitrous oxide (nitrogen fertilizers)

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Depends on costal area and latitude

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The environment matters to agricultural production o The environment has an impact on potential agricultural production o Agricultural production effects the environment  Which can impact other activities  And it can further impact agricultural production

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Here we look at the potential to increase the yield, not just the total amount of land being used. Yield is the output (usually weight) per unit of land (acres or hectares) Yield = output/area, so input is yield*area.

11/10 o Loss of appetite or intolerance of food o Human response to illness  “grandma’s cures”  antibiotics o Loss of body nitrogen (protein) in fighting illness 11/15 o Margin = looking at the edge, not big picture o Returns = benefits, gains, rewards 11/20 o Community is good o Governments are good at:  forcing people to do things they don’t want to do  coordinating very large groups of people  Dealing with problems within their boundaries (whatever these are) o Are not very good at :  Devotion to the causes of the people they are trying to help  Dealing with problems outside of their boundaries o International Organizations  Are very good at:  Coordination with very large groups of people  Dealing with problems across national boundaries  Knowing a broad set of possible answers to a problem These are justifications for government intervention: o Order: Things that everyone wants for themselves, but would rather not have to pay for. o Defending people’s right’s (of self, speech, property, association, etc.) o Creating a system for the maintenance of contractual obligations (civil courts, patent law, etc.) o Externalities: When my undying devotion to my own cause actually gets in the way of your undying devotion to your cause.  Negative externalities: Pollution

 Positive externalities: Research o Merit Goods: When you are uninf...