Assignment 3 - s3757251+s3757239 PDF

Preview

Summary

RMIT University VietnamECON 1193 – Business Statistics 1Subject Code: ECON 1193Subject Name: Business Statistics 1Location & Campus: RMIT Vietnam, HanoiStudent Name: Pham Ngoc Van, Nguyen Quynh ChiStudent Number: S3757251, STeacher’s Name: Long DoWord Count: 4089ContentsMultiple Regression ........

Description

Adolescent Fertility Rate

RMIT University Vietnam ECON 1193 – Business Statistics 1

Subject Code:

ECON 1193

Subject Name:

Business Statistics 1

Location & Campus:

RMIT Vietnam, Hanoi

Student Name:

Pham Ngoc Van, Nguyen Quynh Chi

Student Number:

S3757251, S3757239

Teacher’s Name:

Long Do

Word Count:

4089

0

Adolescent Fertility Rate

Contents Multiple Regression...................................................................................................................................2 All Countries (ALL)................................................................................................................................2 Low-Income Countries (LI).....................................................................................................................4 Middle-Income Countries (MI)...............................................................................................................6 High-Income Countries (HI)....................................................................................................................9 Team Regression Conclusion..................................................................................................................11 Time Series............................................................................................................................................... 12 Brazil..................................................................................................................................................... 12 Kenya.................................................................................................................................................... 14 Vietnam................................................................................................................................................. 17 Ireland................................................................................................................................................... 19 Team Time Series Conclusion.................................................................................................................22 Overall Conclusion.................................................................................................................................. 23 Reference.................................................................................................................................................. 24

1

Adolescent Fertility Rate

PART 1: MULTIPLE REGRESSION Applied to all data sets: Dependent variable (DV): Adolescent fertility rate Independent variables (IV): -

Gross National Income per capita (GNI) Compulsory education (years) Domestic general government health expenditure per capita PPP (current international $)

-

Life expectancy at birth. (Years)

Significance level α = 0.05

All countries (ALL) 

Regression output 1 (All variables) Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.850 R Square 0.723 Adjusted R Square 0.686 24.08 Standard Error 6 Observations 35

Intercept GNI Compulsory education PPP Life expectancy

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

Pvalue

355.129

54.349

6.534

3E-07

-9E-06 4.125 0.000 -4.789

0.001 2.089 0.009 0.852

-0.016 1.975 -0.022 -5.622

0.987 0.058 0.983 4E-06

Lower 95% 244.13 4 -0.001 -0.140 -0.018 -6.528

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

466.125

244.134

0.001 8.391 0.018 -3.049

-0.001 -0.140 -0.018 -6.528

 Significant variables: Life Expectancy at birth Insignificant variables: Gross National Income per capita (Highest P-value), Compulsory education, Domestic general government health expenditure per capita

2

Upper 95.0% 466.12 5 0.001 8.391 0.018 -3.049

Adolescent Fertility Rate



Regression output 2 (Exclude GNI per capita) Regression Statistics 0.850 Multiple R 0.723 R Square 0.696 Adjusted R Square 23.69 Standard Error 4 35 Observations

Intercept Compulsory education PPP Life expectancy

Coefficient s

Standar d Error

t Stat

Pvalue

Lower 95%

355.083

53.388

6.651

0.000

246.197

4.127 0.000 -4.788

2.052 0.004 0.838

2.012 -0.089 -5.716

0.053 0.930 0.000

-0.057 -0.008 -6.497

Upper 95% 463.96 8 8.311 0.007 -3.080

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

246.197

463.968

-0.057 -0.008 -6.497

8.311 0.007 -3.080

 Significant variables: Life expectancy at birth Insignificant variables: Compulsory education and Domestic general government health expenditure per capita (Highest P-value)



Regression Output 3 (Exclude PPP) Regression Statistics 0.850 Multiple R 0.723 R Square 0.706 Adjusted R Square 23.32 Standard Error 4 35 Observations

Intercept Compulsory education Life expectancy

Coefficient s

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

358.382

37.705

9.505

0.000

281.580

435.184

4.166 -4.845

1.971 0.534

2.113 -9.080

0.042 0.000

0.151 -5.932

8.182 -3.758

 Significant variables: Life expectancy at birth and compulsory education

3

Lower 95.0% 281.58 0 0.151 -5.932

Upper 95.0% 435.184 8.182 -3.758

Adolescent Fertility Rate



Regression Equation:

AFR = 358.382 + 4.166 (Compulsory Education) – 4.845 (Life Expectancy at birth)

Interpretation -

For every year a citizen receives as compulsory education year, the number of infants given by teenage moms will increase by 4.166 births For every year a newborn is expected to live, the number of babies of young women will decrease by 4.845 2 r =0.723 is coefficient of determination. 72.3% of the variation in the number of births given by teenagers at the age of 15-19 could be clarified by the variation in the Life Expectancy at birth and Compulsory education years.

Low-income countries (LI) YEA R

Country Name

2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 

Malawi Togo Uganda Mali Haiti Zimbabwe

Countr y Code MWI TGO UGA MLI HTI ZWE

Adolescent fertility rate

GNI per capita

Compulsor y education

141.779 90.149 114.560 173.038 38.976 107.555

340.000 610.000 670.000 790.000 810.000 890.000

8.000 10.000 7.000 9.000 6.000 7.000

Life expectanc y 62.661 59.949 59.575 57.478 63.055 60.398

PPP 30.996 26.778 18.607 19.599 12.829 37.946

Regression Output 1 (All variables) Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.889 R Square 0.790 Adjusted R Square -0.050 46.83 Standard Error 0 Observations 6.000

Intercept

Coefficients 1823.671

Standard Error 1183.693

t Stat 1.541

Pvalue 0.367

4

Lower 95% -13216.572

Upper 95% 16863.91

Lower 95.0% -13216.572

Upper 95.0% 16863.91

Adolescent Fertility Rate

GNI Compulsory education Life expectancy PPP

-0.179

0.151

-1.183

0.447

-2.097

4 1.740

-2.097

4 1.740

-13.815

23.011

-0.600

0.656

-306.192

278.561

-306.192

278.561

-25.068 1.432

16.151 2.374

-1.552 0.603

0.364 0.654

-230.286 -28.728

180.150 31.592

-230.286 -28.728

180.150 31.592

 Significant Variables: None Insignificant Variables: Gross National Income per capita, Compulsory education (Highest P-value), Domestic general government health expenditure per capita and Life expectancy at birth.



Regression Output 2 (Exclude Compulsory education) Regression Statistics 0.845 Multiple R 0.714 R Square 0.286 Adjusted R Square 38.62 Standard Error 4 6 Observations

Intercept GNI Life expectancy PPP

Coefficient s

Standard Error

t Stat

Pvalue

Lower 95%

1246.296

569.234

2.189

0.160

-1202.920

-0.120 -17.848 1.110

0.095 8.893 1.907

-1.263 -2.007 0.582

0.334 0.183 0.619

-0.529 -56.110 -7.096

Upper 95% 3695.51 3 0.289 20.414 9.316

Lower 95.0% -1202.920 -0.529 -56.110 -7.096

 Significant Variables: None Insignificant Variables: Gross National Income per capita, Domestic general government health expenditure per capita (Highest P-value) and Life expectancy at birth.



Regression Output 3 (Exclude PPP) Regression Statistics 0.816 Multiple R 0.666 R Square 0.443 Adjusted R Square

5

Upper 95.0% 3695.51 3 0.289 20.414 9.316

Adolescent Fertility Rate

34.10 4 6

Standard Error Observations

Intercept GNI Life expectancy

Coefficient s

Standard Error

t Stat

Pvalue

1293.538

497.484

2.600

0.080

-0.130 -18.071

0.083 7.845

-1.570 -2.304

0.214 0.105

Lower 95% 289.680 -0.393 -43.036

Upper 95% 2876.75 5 0.133 6.895

Lower 95.0% -289.680 -0.393 -43.036

Upper 95.0% 2876.75 5 0.133 6.895

 Significant Variables: None Insignificant Variables: Gross National Income per capita (Highest P-value) and Life expectancy at birth.



Regression 4 (Exclude GNI) Regression Statistics 0.626 Multiple R 0.391 R Square 0.239 Adjusted R Square 39.859 Standard Error 6.000 Observations

Intercept Life expectancy

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

Pvalue

945.534

520.523

1.817

0.143

-13.789

8.597

-1.604

0.184

Lower 95% 499.668 -37.658

Upper 95% 2390.73 7 10.079

Lower 95.0% -499.668 -37.658

Upper 95.0% 2390.73 7 10.079

 Significant Variables: None Insignificant Variables: Life expectancy at birth. There is no variables that has a significant linear relationship with Adolescent Fertility Rate. Therefore, it is impossible to come up with a final regression model for Low-income countries.

Middle-income Countries (MI) YEA

Country Name

Country

Adolescent

6

GNI

Compulsory

PPP

Life

Adolescent Fertility Rate

R 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015

Kenya Pakistan Ghana India Vietnam Honduras Indonesia Philippines Tunisia Georgia Thailand Peru Dominican Republic Lebanon Mexico

Code KEN PAK GHA IND VNM HND IDN PHL TUN GEO THA PER DOM LBN MEX

fertility rate 83.094 38.474 68.677 25.997 30.794 73.578 48.614 59.211 7.628 48.201 51.736 49.336 97.232 12.531 62.546

2015

Brazil

BRA

63.758

2015

Turkey

TUR

28.006

1310 1430 1490 1600 1950 2090 3430 3520 3930 4120 5710 6160 6250 8040 9860 1010 0 1200 0

education 12 12 11 8 10 12 9 13 9 9 9 14 15 10 14

52.036 36.910 87.136 60.837 139.777 137.100 141.054 101.345 435.827 278.368 470.322 414.003 352.241 564.592 526.213

expectancy 66.695 66.322 62.448 68.302 76.052 73.376 69.025 68.951 75.525 73.096 75.103 74.747 73.673 79.409 76.933

14

594.927

75.284

12

778.186

75.498

Regression Output 1 (All variables) Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.750 R Square 0.562 Adjusted R Square 0.416 18.55 Standard Error 5 17.00 Observations 0

Intercept GNI Compulsory education Life expectancy PPP

Coefficient s

Standard Error

t Stat

Pvalue

Lower 95%

44.157

114.626

0.385

0.707

-205.592

0.000 7.642 -1.007 -0.034

0.005 2.752 1.632 0.082

0.087 2.777 -0.617 -0.414

0.932 0.017 0.549 0.686

-0.011 1.647 -4.562 -0.213

7

Upper 95% 293.90 6 0.012 13.638 2.548 0.145

Lower 95.0% -205.592 -0.011 1.647 -4.562 -0.213

Upper 95.0% 293.90 6 0.012 13.638 2.548 0.145

Adolescent Fertility Rate

 Significant Variables: Compulsory education Insignificant Variables: Gross National Income per capita (Highest P-value), Domestic general government health expenditure per capita and Life expectancy at birth.



Regression Output 2 (Exclude GNI) Regression Statistics 0.749 Multiple R 0.562 R Square 0.461 Adjusted R Square 17.83 Standard Error 3 17 Observations

Intercept Compulsory education Life expectancy PPP

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

Pvalue

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

44.684

110.011

0.406

0.691

-192.981

282.349

-192.981

7.786 -1.033 -0.027

2.123 1.542 0.031

3.667 -0.670 -0.878

0.003 0.515 0.396

3.199 -4.363 -0.095

12.372 2.298 0.040

3.199 -4.363 -0.095

Upper 95.0% 282.34 9 12.372 2.298 0.040

 Significant Variables: Compulsory education Insignificant Variables: Domestic general government health expenditure per capita and Life expectancy at birth (Highest P-value).



Regression output 3 (Exclude Life expectancy) Regression Statistics 0.739 Multiple R 0.547 R Square 0.482 Adjusted R Square 17.47 Standard Error 8 17 Observations

Intercept

Coefficient s -27.282

Standard Error 23.175

t Stat -1.177

8

Pvalu e 0.25

Lower 95% -76.988

Upper 95% 22.424

Lower 95.0% -76.988

Upper 95.0% 22.424

Adolescent Fertility Rate

7.975

2.062

3.867

-0.044

0.019

-2.243

Compulsory education PPP

9 0.00 2 0.04 2

3.552

12.398

3.552

12.398

-0.085

-0.002

-0.085

-0.002

 Significant Variables: Compulsory education and Domestic general government health expenditure per capita Insignificant Variables: None

Interpretation -

-

In middle-income countries, for every year a person goes to school as compulsory education, the number of birth given by adolescent moms increase by 7.975 births. For every dollar the government spends for healthcare treatment for citizens, numbers of newborns given by teenagers will decrease by 0.044 births. This means for every $1000 that each individual receive from the government as budget for healthcare, Adolescent Fertility rate decrease by 4.4 births. 2 r =0.547 is coefficient of determination. 54.7% of the variation in the number of births given by young moms aged 15-19 can be explained by the variation in the Compulsory education years and Domestic general government health expenditure per capita.

High-income Countries (HI) YEA R

Country Name

Countr y Code

Adolescent fertility rate

2015

Portugal

PRT

10.4192

2015

Spain

ESP

8.758

2015

France

FRA

8.9614

2015

United Kingdom

GBR

14.5964

2015

Belgium

BEL

5.3384

2015

Germany

DEU

7.1462

2015

Netherlands

NLD

4.175

9

GNI 2044 0 2842 0 4073 0 4372 0 4423 0 4579 0 4903 0

Compulsor y education

Life expectancy

9

81.12439

10

82.83171

10

82.27317

11

80.9561

12

80.99268

12

80.64146

12

81.50976

PPP 1762.30 7 2260.52 5 3584.98 7 3330.25 1 3940.88 7 4524.90 7 4288.35 2

Adolescent Fertility Rate

2015

Iceland

ISL

7.827

2015

Ireland

IRL

10.6084

2015

Sweden

SWE

5.3086

2015

Qatar

QAT

10.4604

2015

Switzerland

CHE

3.1946



4996 0 5185 0 5788 0 7566 0 8578 0

3353.65 7 3733.83 2 4433.00 3 3331.33 2 5362.89 2

10

82.46829

10

81.45366

9

82.20488

9

78.036

12

82.89756

Upper Lower 95% 95.0% 221.31 5 66.119 0.000 0.000

Upper 95.0% 221.31 5 0.000

Regression Output 1 (All variables) Regression Statistics 0.713 Multiple R 0.508 R Square 0.227 Adjusted R Square 2.861 Standard Error 12

Observations

Intercept GNI Compulsory education Life expectancy PPP

Coefficient s

Standar d Error

t Stat

Pvalue

77.598

60.778

1.277

0.242

0.000

0.000

-0.033

0.975

Lower 95% 66.119 0.000

-0.190

1.009

-0.189

0.856

-2.575

2.195

-2.575

2.195

-0.746 -0.002

0.733 0.002

-1.018 -0.917

0.343 0.390

-2.478 -0.007

0.987 0.003

-2.478 -0.007

0.987 0.003

 Significant Variables: None Insignificant Variables: Gross National Income per capita (Highest P-value), Compulsory education, Domestic general government health expenditure per capita and Life expectancy at birth.



Regression Output 2 (Exclude GNI) Regression Statistics 0.71 Multiple R 3 0.50 R Square

10

Adolescent Fertility Rate

Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations

Intercept Compulsory education Life expectancy PPP

8 0.32 3 2.67 7 12

Coefficie...