Brexit and the irish border PDF

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This essay explains why the Irish border became a central concern in the Brexit debate ...

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The Irish border and Brexit debate

Introduction; Brexit is happening soon or another delay? Days pass and suggestions change, but the outcomes stay the same: Brexit is a mess. Friday the 29th of March, as scheduled two years ago, was supposed to be the day the United Kingdom exits the Union. But then, the House of Commons turned down Theresa May’s deal for the third, and most probably final time1. In what has been observed, the Commons fail to agree on alternative options to Brexit where all proposals where not approved of after a long fruitless discussion. As for now, the situation is disastrous and absurdly viewed as a national embarrassment in the history of modern British politics; worst of all is that no one is currently in a position of leading Brexit. Following the extension conditions agreed by Brussels and reaffirmed by the parliament on the 27th of March, the departure will not happen until the 12th of this month if no deal is made, and 22nd of May If one is admitted. Although the shape of Britain’s future with the union is yet unclear, the northern irish- Irish border issue is at the forefront of Brexit debates and proposals. In November 2018, the EU leaders and UK decided to commit to maintaining a soft border after Brexit. However, the northern Irish- Irish dispute is not restricted to whether or not a hard border2 will ever return, it is in fact a broader and much more complicated conflict consisting if discrete yet entangled elements in the ongoing Brexit deadlock. One is the Irish backstop, and second the negotiations between the Union and the United Kingdom putting the northern Irish situation at stake in the event of no agreement. With the Irish backstop being a central concern; my essay will address possible answers to the following ambiguous questions; Why the Irish is border a leading the Brexit debate, and in what ways does it affect reshaping future British- Irish relationship? How crucial is the backstop, and why is there a lot of opposition to it? A brief description of the northern Irish conflict To comprehend the current position of the so called backstop in the Brexit debate, here is a brief look at the northern Irish conflict. Bloodshed and violence lasted for centuries over the British dominance on the island, and it wasn’t until the 1990s were peace talks took place. The final breakthrough came about in 1998’s Good Friday agreement, terminating the conflict that claimed the lives of thousands. The agreement paved the path for power sharing between Unionists and nationalists in the northern Irish government, as well as abandoning custom checks between both countries and keeping the borders permanently opened. “Even if you feel Irish, even if you would like Northern Ireland to be in the Republic of Ireland rather than the UK, an open border is an expression of this “3. With both countries being members of the European Union, the process of free movement of goods, people and services was facilitated in 1 A defeat by a margin of 58 according to CNN 2 Physical checks and infrastructure 3 Jamie Pow’s statement, a researcher and deputy editor of Northern Slant, a Northern Ireland current affairs blog,

accordance with EU single market4 that wouldn’t have been made possible otherwise. Anyhow, the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the Union is threatening to rip open old wounds, and tear years of the brittle peace Northern Ireland has enjoyed for a while.

“It is more than just a border”; what is the Irish backstop On 8 November 2017, member states were introduced to the notion of backstop by Michel Barnier’s team in one of the EU working papers team reading as “It consequently seems essential for the UK to commit to ensuring that a hard border on the island of Ireland is avoided, including by ensuring no emergence of regulatory divergence from those rules of the internal market and the Customs Union which are (or may be in the future) necessary for meaningful North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the Good Friday Agreement.” The backstop is merely an insurance policy that the republic of Ireland wants to keep the border soft with Northern Ireland6; sustaining a free movement of goods, services, and people under all circumstances. At the moment, the 499 km border separating Northern Ireland from the republic of Ireland is invisible by the Good Friday agreement, as both London and the European commission came to a conclusion that a visible border will destabilize peace in Northern Ireland. Even though the Irish backstop is purely an attempt to refrain from fueling instability in the north all over again, opponents in the parliament say that this could “trap the United Kingdom in the European custom forever”7 and defeat the purpose of Brexit. The parliament had already turned down Theresa Mays’s deal twice by large margin in both times; and recently, on 29 March, the European Union granted the United Kingdom a delay until, the 12th of April to vote for a last deal to avoid the catastrophe of existing the union with no deal. 5

What are the European Union proposals to resolve the conflict? Going back to November 2018 Following the meeting of European ministers In Brussels, Michel Barnier declared unanimous willingness of EU leaders to reconsider possible solutions to avoid the return of hard border. He also added "We are ready to improve this proposal. Work in the EU is ongoing. We are clarifying which goods arriving in Northern Ireland from the rest of the U.K. would need to be checked, where, when and by whom these checks would be performed.” In other words, the EU suggests the UK generates new rules specifically for Northern Ireland; allowing it to stick to the single market and customs union quality standards and tariffs. EU provisions were flatly faced by rejection from UK’s side; making the fulfilment of a withdrawal treaty the biggest obstacle to construct an orderly departure. Prime Minister Theresa May welcomed the principle of the proposition, but subsequently spoke against the EU provision and deemed it a constitutional threat to the country’s integrity. Again, EU leaders countered her statement and stressed on the 4 Came into effect in 1993 5 Chief EU negotiator since 2016 6 John Campbell. 2019 for BBC news 7 Andrew Chatzky, 2019

importance of the backstop implementation, or an accord can’t be reached. While the EU’s chief negotiator comments were intended to reassure both London and Dublin, they don’t essentially hint for an alteration on the backstop position in a final Brexit deal. So far, the EU has profoundly expressed skepticism about the success of another backstop version other than its own, which effectively indicate keeping Northern Ireland within the EU custom territory. Regardless of the European Union’s pessimism about reaching an agreement, Barnier voiced strong consideration for May’s concerns, and declared that the 27 member states are “insisting a legally operational backstop which fully respects the territorial integrity of the U.K. The backstop would only apply unless and until a better arrangement is found as part of the future relationship." 8 The ultimate deadline is approaching and the United Kingdom is not even one step closer to passing a Brexit deal. With people increasingly fearing another Irish British conflict, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar reassured the public his commitment to an open Irish border, frictionless trade and unrestricted movement, he added “We don't want Ireland to become a back door to the single market in the event of a hard Brexit”. Also, the German chancellor Angel Merkel announced at the Farmleigh House in Dublin, that she will try her best alongside other member states to prevent a no deal Brexit on the 12th April. Ms. Merkel continued expressing her sincere wishes that the ongoing discussions in London come out positive, and hopes that Theresa May brings an end to the debate on Wednesday in order for the EU to further establish a non-chaotic withdrawal treaty. "We want to stand together as 27. Until the very last hour, but we have to do this together with Britain and with their position that they will present to us”. 9

British and Northern Irish politicians on the backstop; keep no deal on the table? I would firstly want to address the backlash the Attorney General Geoffrey cox faced in Brussels shortly after claiming that the Irish backstop is posing a serious threat to human rights in Northern Ireland, where this statement increased the gloominess in Westminster over the chances of brining a well tailored deal to the table of negotiations. Cox said that unless the backstop appears to be a temporary solution, it conflicts with convention 1 and 3 of the protocol that protect the rights of those who voted for their legislature. He went adding that northern Irish people, being UK citizens, will be also be underrepresented in any European decision making and the European parliament, hence disregarding their rights. Consequently, diplomats told of their shock to Cox’s claims and pointed out that the United Kingdom had already agreed and negotiated the backstop, so what were these comments directed at in this case ? Irish politicians were intensively alarmed by such allegations like Lisa Chambers10 who 8 DAVID M. HERSZENHORN AND JACOPO BARIGAZZI, 2018 9 Angela Merkel during her meeting with Varadkar on the 4th of April 10 A member of Fianna Fail tds, the second largest political party in the Oireachtas

questioned the breakdown of such comments and asked “If you are resorting to using European human rights law, that means negotiations are not going well”, she as well expressed her astonishment at the strategy of Cox, and believed that citing the European convention of human rights is an adversarial approach that is unsuitable to resort to when deciding on the future if the country. “The problem is Geoffrey Cox is trying to solve a political problem with a legal solution. It makes you question the strategy of the government sending in a lawyer to negotiate when it is a political, not a legal, problem” added Chambers. Nonetheless, Cox revealed that discussions are still running in the parliament, and that he intends on securing legally binding alterations to the backstop which guarantee it can’t be indefinite. Moreover, the Democratic Unionist Party11 stance on the backstop is aggravating the vague situation even more. Just few months ago, 10 MPs from the party voted against May’s Brexit deal, marking this as the biggest loss in present days. The party always stood up against plans of a “special status” for Northern Ireland in the Brexit talks; arguing that such regulatory difference between Northern Ireland and the rest of the kingdom will dissolve the country’s integrity. The backstop plan Theresa may is holding onto represents the DUP’s greatest fears; constitutional variances strictly allowing Northern Ireland to continue abiding by the European Union’s laws with no time limit. The ability to exit to backstop at any point must be jointly agreed on by the UK and the EU; which clearly didn’t happen yet. Theresa may is convinced that DUP’s votes make a difference, but what does the party actually want form Brexit? Firstly and most importantly, the party wants an orderly departure from the Union, but one that does not treat Northern Ireland in a special way. Mrs foster12 was satisfied after talks with May in London, and said that the prime minister listened thoroughly to the detrimental effects the backstop would cause. Ideally, the party wishes for a complete elimination of the backstop from the deal, however given the circumstances like the good Friday agreement as well as the comments coming from the European Union generally, and the Irish government in particular; May insists on maintaining some form of an open border with Ireland. Undoubtedly, the DUPs preference seems very unlikely and unrealistic, yet the party is open to accept some time limit on the backstop and move forward with the discussions. There has been some news circulating around suggesting a time limit until 2022 on the backstop which will persuade unionist to finally come to an agreement. Anyways, Theresa May has to be mindful of the fact that the voice of the DUP isn’t necessarily a reflection of northern Irish people as a whole, especially with other major parties urging support for the backstop and stressing its importance. While the DUP may appear to monopolies the representation of the northern Irish citizens in the parliament on grounds of being the largest northern Irish party at Westminster, they are nowhere close to accurately mirroring the views of the majority of the population in the north. Not only people voted by a clear margin to remain in the Union13, but opinion polls until this day 11 A unionist political party in Northern Ireland founded in 1971, 12 Northern Irish politician who has served as Leader of the Democratic Unionist Party since December 2015 13 Northern Ireland has voted to remain in the EU Referendum by a majority of 56% to 44%, BBC news 2016

show a strong support to remain in the European Union. Still, a constitutional transformation is only bound happen in Northern Ireland through the principle of consent14 laid out in the withdrawal treaty. Another point I must draw attention to is the fact that Northern Ireland, by devolution, has always been different from the rest of the UK; the backstop, if anything, will give precedence and recognition to this difference.

Why is the Irish back stop important? An economic perspective; As political uncertainty reigns the United Kingdom, chances of a disruptive Brexit are more likely, with all the disadvantageous economic implications it will bring. A disorderly exit will have severe repercussion for Irish exports to the UK, food in particular, and to imports in both sides. These effects are all dependent on the form the Brexit will take; by which accordingly businesses from Ireland to the United Kingdom will relocate and vice versa. The biggest concern accompanying a hard Brexit, which is very likely to occur, is the chaotic impact both countries’ economies will endure, whereas the impact is temporary until the system settles down, the harm imposed initially will not cease to exist as fast. As previously mentioned, food exports like meat and dairy from Ireland will be subjected to heavy duties; meaning that UK will take time to find an alternative and consumers are probably going to pay more. On the contrary, the business community is optimistic about the changes that will happen in case of a successful Brexit deal providing Northern Ireland with a more inclusive future economic relationship with the European Union. The north will benefit comparatively from its privileged access to the Union and Great Britain simultaneously; European economists suggest it might serve as a bridge connecting the country to the rest of Europe by the virtue of trade at least. Conclusion: What is happening next? The Irish backstop has been a key part of the ongoing Brexit negotiations especially with the possibility of the return of a hard border between both countries. The Irish border according to many is more symbolic and sentimental rather than political considering the violence the region had witnessed decade ago. Unfortunately, if the backstop deal doesn’t get passed on; then no transition period nor an orderly withdrawal treaty will be figured out, thus a disorganized departure. While there is a chance of breaching the good Friday agreement and putting the peace of northern Ireland at risk by building a border, both Theresa May and Leo Varadkar reassured the public that a soft border will most likely be maintained for the time being. The situation can be summarized in three simple words, Brexit is a mess.

14“ require the ‘specific endorsement’ (Strand 2, Section 12) of the Northern Ireland Assembly itself, for them to function. This provision was in the original 1998 Good Friday Agreement to reassure Unionists in Northern Ireland that cross-border cooperation would have an inbuilt democratic checking mechanism.” (Graham Gudgin, Ray Bassett 2018)

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