Demographic traces of technological innovation, social change and mobility: from 1 to 8 million Europeans (6000-2000 BCE) PDF

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Demographic traces of technological innovation, social change and mobility: from 1 to 8 million Europeans (6000–2000 BCE) Johannes Müller * Abstract Müller J. 2013. Demographic traces of technological innovation, social change and mobility: from 1 to 8 million Europeans (6000–2000 BCE). In S. Kadrow...

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Demographic traces of technological innovation, social change and mobility: from 1 to 8 million Europeans (6000–2000 BCE) Johannes Müller *

Abstract Müller J. 2013. Demographic traces of technological innovation, social change and mobility: from 1 to 8 million Europeans (6000–2000 BCE). In S. Kadrow and P. Włodarczak (eds.), Environment and subsistence – forty years after Janusz Kruk’s „Settlement studies…” (= Studien zur Archäologie in Ostmitteleuropa / Studia nad Pradziejami Europy Środkowej 11). Rzeszów, Bonn: Mitel & Verlag Dr. Rudolf Habelt GmbH, 1–14.

Demographic values for Europe and the Near East indicate a general population growth in Europe from 1 to 8 million inhabitants and in the Near East from 1 to 14 million ca. 6500–2000 BCE. Fluctuations in growth rates were due to influences of technological and social change on demography. Different compositions of population concentrations in core areas are observed between the Near East, Southeast Europe and Central Europe/South Scandinavia. For Central Europe and South Scandinavia, isotope values indicate a high degree of “non-locals” in the populations. A combination of demographic and isotope values for Bell Beaker burials indicate, however, that supra-regional networks and not a general immigration were probable the causes of the observed demographic and isotope values. Key words: Near East, Southeast Europe, Central Europe, population growth, demography, Neolithic

Introduction and research questions The constitution of political institutions, social identities, economic opportunities and mobility is quite dependent on the size and density of groups which are involved. This is also true for prehistoric societies. Thus, one of the main discourses of social archaeology is concerned with demographic values. Social archaeology and social palaeodemography are closely linked. Among others, the debate about processes which triggered social change, which enabled rates of exchange and which promoted interaction and mobility led us to question how many people were actually involved. According to Durkheim’s notion, demography constitutes a productive force in non-industrial societies (Durkheim 1981). In general, population densities on local, re* Institut für Ur- und Frühgeschichte, JohannaMestorf-Str. 2-6, D-24098 Kiel, Germany; johannes. [email protected]

gional and global levels are important for the constitution of non-literate social structures. For example, a survey on population densities in New Guinea leads, on the one hand, to the result that “big men”-institutions are prevalent in areas with a population density between ca. 20 and 110 inhabitants (Roscoe 2012). On the other hand, such a statement is contradicted by other environs and circumstances (e.g. density rates for Near Eastern state societies; see below). At all, an interdependency of population values and economic and societal spheres is predictable for many prehistoric societies (Tab. 1). As demographic studies are not only important for archaeology, a variety of methods have been developed and applied during the last decades to come up with density calculations – also for prehistoric societies (cf. Zimmermann 1996). The approaches span from attempts to reconstruct carry-

Johannes Müller | Demographic traces of technological innovation, social change and mobility…

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Tab. 1. Some examples of societal spheres which are influenced by group sizes and population densities Sphere/aspect

Influence of population density

Examples

economic activities

size of joint activities

organization of hunting, field rotation systems, expeditions

specialization and labor division

economic tasks with work flows for specialized activities

flint extraction, metal production

architecture

number of people who could be gathered for construction works

Events, e.g., the construction of a house or a burial mound

political organization

character and number of political institutions

political practice to organize daily and even generational life

horizontal networks

spatial scales

exogamy/endogamy of marriage practices

commodity exchange

flow of items and commodities between regions

possibility or impossibility of hand-to-hand exchange in thinly populated areas

creation of identities (even “ethnic” identities)

language distribution

—

ing capacities and to calculate population sizes on the basis of prehistoric subsistence technologies or ethnographic analogs, to the use of radiometric dates as proxies for demographic developments. While in the first instance absolute values with persons/km² are calculated, the latter serve as values for enquiries on relative distributions (Tab. 2). For different research goals, I conducted a survey on population estimations for prehistoric Europe and the Near East (Müller in preparation; data access: www.johannamestorf-academy.uni-kiel.de). About 153

estimations of methods 1–7 (Tab. 2) surveys had to be compiled, which were used and verified with the author’s own calculations. In the scope of this article, I would like to focus on three aspects: (1) How many people lived in Europe and the Near East from ca. 6500–1500 BCE? Are there differences observable in dispersed or agglomerated settlement patterns? (2) Could certain levels of the demographic development be linked to technological or social changes? (3) How does mobility come into the picture?

Europe and the Near East (6500–1500 BCE): from 1 to 8 and 1 to 14 million people As a relatively simple task, I used the average value of the “cloud” of demographic estimations available to describe the population development in the Near East, in Southeast Europe and in Central Europe/South Scandinavia (Fig. 1–4) (cf. Müller in preparation; Müller 2013). These calculations are made for regions in which agriculture was practiced (as I mainly surveyed studies on societies with such a subsistence base). While the pattern in the Near East seems to be quite clear thanks to a number of diachronic field surveys (e.g. Wilkinson 1999), for Southeast Europe and Central Europe data are still under-reported. For this reason, control counts were made to verify the tendencies. The age distribution on cemeteries was used to identify phases of increasing and decreasing population rates according to the assumption that the rate of

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fertile females and young age classes would be higher during times of population increases and lower during phases of population decreases or standstills (Fig. 5–7). In a further step, the estimations on relative population densities had to be linked to the areas occupied in each period by agrarian communities (cf. Fig. 1). Thus, the areas, occupied by agrarian, proto-urban or urban societies were counted on the basis of the well-known distribution patterns (Fig. 1). The enlargement of an area increased the differences between older and younger periods, when the absolute population number was calculated by the multiplication of the square meters occupied with the relative density (person per square kilometer) known from the surveys. To end up with the overall population in the areas, the parts inhabited by foragers also

Johannes Müller | Demographic traces of technological innovation, social change and mobility…

Tab. 2. Different categories for the reconstruction of population densities. 1–7  yield absolute popu­ lation ranges (p/km2), the latter mostly relative values. In addition to archaeology, the fields of palaeo­ demography, ethnology, genetics and ecosystem research are also involved Characterization

Method

Examples

Results

1

Ecological/ ethnographical estimations

Population densities of recent non-literate societies in different ecological areas are used as proxies for similar palaeoecological areas occupied by prehistoric groups with similar subsistence techniques.

Binford 2001

Absolute demographic values

2

Ecological/ ethnographical/ archaeological estimations

Carrying capacity is reconstructed with the help of ethnographic parameters und environmental reconstructions as an upper limit of prehistoric population densities. Archaeological remains of contemporaneous sites are used (also with ethnographic parallels, e.g., of group sizes in houses) for the lower limit of absolute population densities.

Hassan 1981

3

Ecological/ archaeological estimations

Archaeological information is used to reconstruct the technological level of subsistence economies of prehistoric societies. For reconstructed environments, the productivity of prehistoric groups is calculated according to the technological basis and transferred into population values and rates.

Poulsen 1981; Buck 1985; Milisauskas and Kruk 1985

4

Archaeological estimations based on data from burials

For periods and areas of interest, the loss of burials through prehistory and history is reconsidered by source criticism and the living population is reconstructed by anthropological data from the burials.

Struve 1979; Kristiansen 1985; Wendt et al. 2010

5

Archaeological estimations based on data from domestic sites (houses)

The number of contemporaneous households is reconstructed for “well researched” test areas, the determined number of houses is applied to other settled regions and the household size is then estimated by ethnographic comparisons.

Zimmermann 2004; Müller 2007; Hinz et al. 2012

6

Archaeological estimations based on data from domestic sites (sites)

Reconstructed population sizes of settlements Russell 1958; on the basis of contemporaneous houses are Wilkinson transferred into figures about inhabitants/ 1999 hectare and this value is then applied to settlement areas, detected, e.g., by surveys.

7

Archaeological estimations based on data from single object types

The number of site inhabitants is reconstructed by the use time and the processed amount of cereals, e.g., from contemporaneously used millstones, which is then transferred to likely nourished individuals, whose number is calculated by nutrition models.

Castro et al. 1998

8

Palaeodemographic estimations based on date from burial sites

The age/sex ratio of burials at cemeteries can be used to recalculate the fertility rate and end up with relative estimations about the demographic development in an area.

BocquetAppel 2002

9

Estimations based on indirect proxies from 14C-values or pollen analysis

Sum calibrations of radiometric data are used as indicators of human activity, which could be translated into a model of the relative development of demographic values. A correlation with palynological human impact indicators is possible. A scaling of results by population estimations in test areas (derived by other estimation methods) might be possible to translate the relative values into absolute population figures.

Shennan and Edinborough 2007; Hinz et al. 2012; Müller 2009b

10

Estimations based on mutation rates of DNA

The mutation of haplotypes might indicate the relative population numbers for selected areas.

Brotherton et al. 2013

Relative demographic values

Johannes Müller | Demographic traces of technological innovation, social change and mobility…

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Ufa

2500

00

25

3000

2000

2600

Stockholm South Scandinavia

2500

Tallinn

Oslo

a

Wolg

St. Petersburg

Helsinki

Kasan

a

a

Wo lg

Ok

Riga Dü

al

00

30

Copenhagen

350

2500

Minsk

3500

4100

0 Dublin Berlin

Wien

Do

5800

5000 55

00

Ancara

00

0

62

5600

Tig

6200

0

750

750

s r u T a u

0

580

0

Athens

620

ris

Eup

hra

t

0

50

0 850

00

0

6000 – 5500

0

Algier

550

0

550

0

ro

Eb

00

650

4000

8500 54

ra

900

0

530

r

Rom

Mediterranean Sea

K a u k a s u s

Near East

Belgrad

Istanbul Barcelona

Krasnodar

Ku

Southeast Europe

s

Caspian Sea

3500

6000

Black Sea

nau

Zagreb 59 00

540

Py

00

55 Madrid

ee

Sea of Asov

Odessa

h

n

0

550

Bug

ia

p s A l 5500

Bern Mailand

en

str

4000

ire

5500

Dnje

C a 5900 r p a t

00

4800

u

na

Lo

Toulouse

r

Prag

Do

0

480

Dnjep

e

n Do

5500

Rhein

5300

Elb

Central Europe

Paris

Kiev

g

5300 5500

Brussels

Warsaw

60

00

Bu

London

Wolgograd

41

0

410

Ur

na

Baltic Sea

North Sea

3000

Moscow

3800

6500

000

4

0

Relative population values Near East 60

core area density population

50 40

agrarian population

30 20

p/km2

Fig. 1. The distribution of agrarian regions in Europe and the Near East in relation to the supra­ regions as defined in this study: Near East (NE) about 2.400.000 km2; South East Europe (SEE) about 1.087500 km2; Central Europe and South Scandinavia (CE/SSc) about 1.613.000 km2. Europe includes 10.050.000 km2 (without Iceland).

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Fig. 2. Near East: Observed profiles of population densities in accordance with archaeological estimations for “local” core areas, agrarian regions, and on a “global” (regions including non­settled or less settled areas) scale, using a Loess fitting procedure (Epanechinkov, 50% point matching). The lines represent the average expectations based on archaeological analyses.

4

0 1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

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5500

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6500

7000

BCE

Johannes Müller | Demographic traces of technological innovation, social change and mobility…

300km

Relative population values Southeast Europe local core area global population

60

agrarian population

40

p/km2

20

Fig. 3. Southeast Europe: Observed profiles of population densities in accordance with archaeological estimations for “local” core areas, agrarian regions, and on a “global” (regions including non­settled or less settled areas) scale (method cf. Fig. 2).

0 1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

BCE Relative population values Central Europe/South Scandinavia local core area global population

15

global agrarian population 10

p/km2

5

0 1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500 7000

BCE

Johannes Müller | Demographic traces of technological innovation, social change and mobility…

Fig. 4. Central Europe/ South Scandinavia: Observed profiles of population densities in accordance with archaeological estimations for “local” core areas, agrarian regions, and on a “global” (regions including non­settled or less settled areas) scale (method cf. Fig. 2).

5

Fig. 5. Southeast Europe: The age and sex relations of burials indicate higher rates of pre­adults and of pre­adult females during phases of probable population growth (Loess fitting procedure [Epanechinkov, 50% point matching]).

40

Adult–senile burials Southeast Europe female male all

%

60

80

100 3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

BCE

Juvenile/early adult burials North and Central Germany female male all

80

%

60

40

Fig. 6. North and Central Germany: The age and sex relations of burials indicate higher rates of juveniles and early adults, and juveniles and early adult females during phases of probable population growth (Loess fitting procedure [Epanechinkov, 50% point matching]).

6

20

0 1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

BCE

Johannes Müller | Demographic traces of technological innovation, social change and mobility…

5500

Juvenile/early adult burials South Central Europe female male

100

all

80

Fig. 7. South Central Europe: The age and sex relations of burials indicate higher rates of juveniles and early adults, and juveniles and early adult females during phases of probable population growth (Loess fitting procedure [Epanechinkov, 50% point matching]).

%

60

40

20

0 1000

1500

2000

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3000

3500

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4500

5000

5500

BCE
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