Drought in California - and graph done using R program PDF

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laboratory report 2 . California and its alarming drought...

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1 2 EVE 101 Lab 2. 3 4 California and Its Alarming Drought 5 6 Introduction: Introduction. California is the only state that has a 7Mediterranean climate (climate that has three variations). This means that 8California’s weather along the coast it has frequent summer fog. A second 9variation is found on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada where we can 10feel a cool summer or cool winter. the third is an interior valley version with 11cooler winters and hotter summers. With all types, most of the precipitation 12falls into winter and not summer. When it receives precipitation for water 13reserves, it is usually available via snow topped mountains in the Sierra. 14Throughout history California has suffered from many droughts, the most 15current drought being the worse for today’s Californians. California drought 16has been largely frustrating for residents in this past decade. Drought is 17described as a prolonged shortage of water and causes adverse effects on 18the survival of all species of plants and animals that live on earth and need 19water to survive and function. Drought is the main fuel for raging forest 20fires and habitat loss (Wikipedia, 2021). Though this state has suffered 21through this drought, there is strong evidence that it has suffered through 22worse. In fact, California once had 150 years of drought during the 23Medieval Warm Period. This drought period is the worst in California history 24as made evident by paleoclimatic and model data and considered worse 25than the current drought facing California. The Medieval Warm Period 26(MWP) is a period of warming caused by climatic variation. Evidence of this 27massive drought in medieval years is seen in stumps found in the Sierra 28Nevada lakes. Until these stumps were discovered, the “Dust Bowl Period” 29(from 1928-1934) was considered the worst drought on record. The stumps 30were discovered at the bottom of four lakes in the Sierra Nevada: Mono 31Lake, Tenaya Lake, the West Walker River, and Osgood Swamp. Today’s 32drought can be measured by the Palmer Drought Severity Index or PDSI. 33This index is a “measurement of dryness based on recent precipitation and 34temperature” (Wikipedia, 2021). It determines how severe a dryness is. 35With these data from the PDSI long-term drought can be determined. This is 36the most used index for measurement of the drought. So, the question 37comes is California’s climate changing? Can Californian’s begun to relax 38their water usage again? With the evidence acquire from the past and 39present, climate science contributions will be able to answer these and any 40other questions that might help many Californians and every living 41organism in earth. With this research, evidence using PDSI and regression 42techniques will be provided to substantiate that California’s climate is 43indeed changing and has been changing in the past due to Anthropogenic 44Global Warming. 45 Methods: PDSI is an index of measurement for severity drought 46based on temperature and precipitation data. This method is calculated, as

47a running average based upon previous and current temperature, 48precipitation, and ground water, known as "supply," minus potential 49evapotranspiration (PET) for the specific vegetation at the sites and 50drainage from the surface and from beneath the soil, known as "demand” 51(Strong, 2021:9). This system is important because it can converge data 52from rainfall, soil properties, and temperature that were taken from 53different sites of weather stations. Two types of regression were provided for this research: LOWESS 54 55(Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing) and linear regression. An 56arithmetic graph (with PDSI values for the y-axis and time for the x-axis) in 57the RStudio computer program was obtained with the Rcode data provided 58(Figure 1 on page 3). The first method of the regression is linear. A straight 59line is placed through the data from start to end in a way that would 60indicate the most logical, linear procession of points. The second method of 61regression is the LOWESS which is non-parametric, that means the 62 63data doesn’t need to follow any normal type of distribution. The weighing 64factor used for the Figure 1 shown on page 3 is signified as “f.” Three 65values of f are given (0.5, 0.1, 1). The values of "f" that are larger are more 66like a linear regression with weaker local weights. The values of "f" that are 67smaller, put the weight more of a curvy line that follows the values more 68closely. 69 Results: Figure 1 on page 3 shows that within the last 126 years the 70PDSI values are slowly decreasing. The linear regression gave a p-value of 710.007361 so there is more confidence in this type of regression. The trend 72in the linear line is negative and the p-values are smaller than 0.05, this 73could be because of a large sample size. The line also has a slope that is not 74equal to zero which means that there is not a constant relationship between 75year s and PDSI. The LOWESS lines are also decreasing at f=0.5 and f=1. 76On the other side, the LOWESS line for f=0.1 is curvy with ups and downs, 77the negative tendency of the segment is still shown. Discussion: Since the regression lines shows a negative trend and p78 79value of 0.007361 which is smaller than 0.05, this means that there is less 80than a 5% probability of error. We cannot say that California’s drought has 81ended because the regression line has a slope that is not equal to zero. 82Further evidence is provided on other platforms that the drought continues 83and that 2021 is the second driest year in the state history (Current 84Conditions). On Sunday Oct. 242 021, a category 5 atmospheric river hit 85Northern California bringing historic rains and causing flooding, power 86outages and ash and debris flows in wildfire burn scars (abc7news, 2021). 87Even though California is having raining days comparing to previous years, 88it will take decades to recover from the drought. Though drought is still a 89worry for Californians, a more substantial concern would be the cause of 90the drought. In the last 126 years, California’s climate has been changing 91because of Anthropogenic Global Warming. This type of global warming has 92been a direct result of the rampant burning of fossil fuels. It is suggested

93that anthropogenic activities cause further warming of the Earth and it is 94going to give severe droughts and other substantial weather catastrophes. 95So, the question comes what can be done to help the further damage to the 96earth? Six years ago, ex-President Obama and ex California Governor Jerry 97Brown came together to discuss the future of the water crisis in California 98and the future of the changing climate due to global warming. California 99grows most of the country’s fruits and vegetables so the devastation of the 100drought in California could affect the entire country’s food supply. Even 101though California is not free from the drought, political leaders have been 102making strides in funding climate research to help combat the effects of 103global warming on the planet and therefore also prevent extreme wildfires 104in California. Much damage has been done and continues to be done to the 105earth’s atmosphere, but it is on us to change and decrease all this damage 106and therefore secure the future for next generations to come. 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 Lab Time: TA: 120 121 Literature Cited: 122 Strong, Donald. (2021). “Drought, California” Retrive from UC Davis EVE 123 124101 Canvas Site. 125 126"Central Valley" Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation, 4 Nov. 2021. 127 . 128 129Curry, Ryan. (2021, October 19) 'It's alarming': Report shows 2021 is 130California's driest year since 1924. https://abc7news.com/california-rain-ca131drought-reservoirs-driest-years/11141022/ 132 Figure 1. Linear Regression and LOWESS Lines for PDSI Over the 133 134last 126 Years

135 136 Fig.1 shows a LOWESS line in red with an f- values of 0.1. The second 137LOWESS line in blue has a f- value of 1 and the third LOWESS line in green 138has a f-value of 0.5. The solid black line shows a linear line. 139...