ECON1193A _Assignment 2_Individual Case Study_SEM1 2020 PDF

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ASSIGNMENT 2Individual Case Study 2Subject Code: ECON1193ASubject Course: Business Statistics 1Lecturer’s Name: Ms. Greeni MaheshwariWord count: 3033Total Pages : 11 pages (excluding cover page and references)PART A:1. Overview of cryptocurrency and company share In history, humanity has undergone t...

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ASSIGNMENT 2 Individual Case Study 2

Subject Code: ECON1193A Subject Course: Business Statistics 1 Lecturer’s Name: Ms. Greeni Maheshwari Word count: 3033 Total Pages: 11 pages (excluding cover page and references)

PART A: 1. Overview of cryptocurrency and company share In history, humanity has undergone three industrial revolutions, bringing about a total change to human life. Not an exception, the 4.0 revolution with the explosive development of technology and the Internet has brought big changes in today's life, solving many difficult problems and connecting the world faster than ever. The financial and monetary sector in recent years has also made big changes thanks to the advent of blockchain and 1 ECON1193A_Asssigment #2 (Individual Case Study), Semester 1, 2021

cryptocurrencies. Currently, cryptocurrencies are a global trend, and the Status Network Token, which is a modular utility token, is the cryptocurrency mentioned in this analysis. SNT is the official token of the Status platform developed on the Ethereum platform according to the ERC20 standard (Yahoo Finance n.d). SNT was released to the market via ICO fundraising on June 20, 2017, and sold out in a day. At the time, one SNT cost $ 0.0365 (Cryptonews n.d). The main purpose of SNT is to provide an easy gateway to access certain features of the Ethereum Name Service and use it in the activities and services of the Status ecosystem, including Decentralized Application Directory ( with the same functions as Android's Google Play Store and Apple's AppStore), Sticker Market (permitting anybody to design and sell their manifestations all throughout around the world), Status Teller Network (a D-app allows clients to exchange fiat into crypto helps Status to solve the problem facing most cryptocurrencies: users earn coins easier, transact directly and easily make money with currencies), Status Hardware Wallet (integrated electronic wallet to store cryptocurrency funds and make payments securely) (Sessa 2018). According to data at Yahoo Finance at 2 pm on April 26, 2021, the value of the SNT coin is $ 0.155, which means it has increased by $ 0.1185 compared to the time it was first recorded. This demonstrates SNT has gradually gained recognition and credibility from the public. MakeMyTrip Limited, India's preeminent online travel company was established in 2000 by Deep Kalra headquartered in Gurugram, India (MakeMyTrip n.d). The company offers the most extensive selection of travel products and services. The organization operates through three sectors: Air Ticketing, Hotels and Packages, and Bus Ticketing. In 2016, the company dispatched its IPO under the symbol 'MMYT' and set the IPO price at $14 ( The Economic Times 2010) . The newest update on April 26, 2021, its prices achieve $26.25, which is higher than its first launch $12.25 involves the development of the company's value (Yahoo Finance 2021). 2. Articles Summarization The first article is about the effects on the SNT (refers to the second part of the article), which rallies after beating many years of a downtrend ( Upadhyay 2021). The main factor impacting the change of the SNT cryptocurrency is that the expansion of platforms using digital currencies by pioneer Tesla and maybe Amazon soon. It leads to tremendously strengthens the chance of cryptocurrencies in general and SNT in specific go mainstream over the world. Next, due to the latest update features, Status has observed a sharp escalation download number on Android. Alongside its updates on mobile, Status Network (SNT) also launched Beta versions for the Desktop app. Therefore, SNT rose $0.0795 from February 1 and peaked at $0.1260 at the end of February 11, 2021. The second article concerns the 'Earnings Outlook for MakeMyTrip' (Benzinga Insights 2021). According to the article, Wall Street analysts have studied the effect of earnings on company shares. The averages of investigator EPS and revenue estimates can significantly affect performance of company through earnings delivered, which can shift the stock contingent upon the distinction among actual and estimated values. Moreover, the shares of MakeMyTrip were commerced at $29.94 on January 26 and shares rose 20.41% in the last 52 weeks. It showed that the returns are typically positive, which made long-term shareholders were satisfied with these earnings release. It additionally demonstrates the earnings impact on the company share. 3. Graphs of Weekly Closing Price in 2020 a. Graph of cryptocurrency - SNT 2 ECON1193A_Asssigment #2 (Individual Case Study), Semester 1, 2021

Weekly Closing price of SNT (USD) 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0 2 0 20 2 0 20 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 20 2 0 2 0 2 0 20 20 2 0 20 2 0 20 2 0 2 0 1/ 5/ 9/ 2/ 6/ 1/ 5/ 8/ 2/ 6/ 0/ 3/ 7/ 1/ 5/ 9/ 2/ 6/ 9/ 3/ 7/ 1/ 4/ 8/ 2/ 6/ 0/ 1/ 1/1 1/2 2/1 2/2 3/1 3/2 4/ 4/2 5/ 5/2 6/ 6/1 7/ 7/1 7/2 8/1 8/2 9/ 9/2 10/ 0/2 11/ 1/1 12/ 2/1 2/3 1 1 1 1

Explanation: As the graph demonstrates, the weekly closing price of SNT fluctuated a lot in 2020. It implies that in the last week of January, the cryptocurrency price was at $0.01391 but it rose to $0.0206 – the highest rate in February. However, it dropped to the lowest point $0.009 of the entire 2020 on March 11th, after that, it increased constantly to week 1 of May even though there was a slight decline in the first week of April. Then the closing price of SNT kept up and down till it reached the peak at $0.047 on November 18th.

b. Graph of company share - MMYT

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Weekly Closing Price of MMYT (USD) 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 2 0 20 20 20 20 20 2 0 2 0 20 2 0 20 2 0 2 0 2 0 20 20 20 20 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 1/ 5/ 9/ 2/ 6/ 1/ 5/ 8/ 2/ 6/ 0/ 3/ 7/ 1/ 5/ 9/ 2/ 6/ 9/ 3/ 7/ 1/ 4/ 8/ 2/ 6/ 0/ 1/ 1/1 1/2 2/1 2/2 3/1 3/2 4/ 4/2 5/ 5/2 6/ 6/1 7/ 7/1 7/2 8/1 8/2 9/ 9/2 10/ 0/2 11/ 1/1 12/ 2/1 2/3 1 1 1 1

Explanation The graph illustrates that in the first week of 2020, the closing price odd MMYT was at $23.22 and peaked at $29.32 at the end of week 1 in February. After the lastest highest rate, the price kept decreasing and flopped to the lowest point at $11.69 in week 2 of April. Then it maintained varying between $13.95 and $17.91. However, by the end of September, it raised again and attained $28.46 to close the year 2020. 4. Weekly Return of Cryptocurrency and Company Share a. Weekly Return of Cryptocurrency – SNT

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Weekly Return of SNT (%) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 86 1. 3 -

%

15 4. 2 -

%

6. -1

44

%

4 .7 -8

%

3 .0 -1

%

68 6.

%

. 14

39

%

. 22

10

%

. 29

81

%

. 37

51

%

. 45

22

%

. 52

93

b. Weekly Return of Company Share – MMYT

5 ECON1193A_Asssigment #2 (Individual Case Study), Semester 1, 2021

%

. 60

64

%

. 68

35

%

. 76

06

%

Weekly Return of MMYT (%) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 22 6. -2

%

66 2. -2

%

9. -1

09

%

5. -1

53

%

7 .9 -11

%

1 .4 -8

%

4 .8 -4

%

8 .2 -1

%

2.

28

%

5.

85

%

9.

41

%

. 12

97

%

. 16

53

%

. 20

10

%

. 23

66

%

Answer question on normal distriution and outliers for SNT and MMYT: The histograms of SNT and MMYT do not illustrate bell-shaped distribution, but the sample sizes (n) are 53, which are greater than 30. Therefore, the central limit theorem (CLT) is applicable and turns the shape of the SNT's and MMYT's weekly return histograms to normal distributions. As the graph of weekly return of SNT shows, there are 4 large outliers, including 45.22% (appears twice), 68.35%, and 76.06%, and 2 small outliers, which are -24.15% and -31.86%. In addition, as the weekly return of MMYT’s histogram demonstrates that there is 1 small outlier point (-26.22%) and 3 large outlier points (20.10% and 23.66%, which point shows as twice). 5. Descriptive Analysis a. Central Tendency of SNT’s and MMYT’s Weekly Return i). Table of Central Tendency

ii). Interpretation As illustrated by the histogram in Figures 3 and 4, there are some outliers in the weekly return of SNT and MMYT. As the presence of these extreme values would re-calculate the outcome nearer to the outliners, which influence the analysis exactness. Therefore median is the most suitable measure in the central tendency for the analytical process of the weekly return. As discerned by 6 ECON1193A_Asssigment #2 (Individual Case Study), Semester 1, 2021

median measures in table 3 that the weekly return is split a half above 2.51% for SNT and 1.68% for MMYT, and a half below these values. It shows that the midpoint of ranked values of the SNT’s weekly return is higher than that of MMYT. b. Variation of SNT’s and MMYT’s Weekly Return i). Table of Variation

ii). Interpretation For the reason of resistance to the existence of extreme values, the IQR is the best measure to indicate the variability of data values. To be more specific, the result of the IQR expresses that the extent of data dispersed inconsistently because the IQR of SNT and MMYT is sequent 16.57% and 12.66%, which means that there is a high difference between the highest and lowest values of the quartiles. From MS excel, data shows that the weekly return of Q1 is -6.71% and Q3 is 9.86%, for SNT, and -5.15% and 7.47% for MMYT correspondingly.. c. Shape of SNT and MMYT i). Box-and-Whisker plot

:SNT :MMYT

ii). Table of comparision to determine skewness 7 ECON1193A_Asssigment #2 (Individual Case Study), Semester 1, 2021

iii). Interpretation Figure 4 demonstrates that the two plots are left-skewed. In the weekly return of SNT and MMYT, including the box, the distance from Q1 to the median is larger than the gap from the median to Q3. With the SNT weekly return box, the mean point value is greater than the median one, but for the MMYT's box, 25% of weekly return from Q3 to maximum is larger than that from Q1 to the minimum point. Thereby, a broad majority of the values are distributed asymmetrically and show a tendency to the left side, which indicates that the shape of the weekly return of SNT and MMYT is left-skewed. 6. The Probability of a Loss Stastiscal Idependent Events Formula: P(A|B) = P(A) or P(B|A) = P(B) Apply to check if Probability of Loss depend on which quarter the investment is made: P(B|A) = P( L|Qn) , P(B) = P(L) => compare P(L|Qn) with P(L) a) Investment in SNT cryptocurrency

The probability of a loss P(L) of each quarter is caculated by: P(L) = 23/52 = 44.23% P(L|Q1) = P( L and Q1) / P(Q1) = (4/52) / (12/52) = 1/3 = 33.33%  44.23% => DEPENDENT P(L|Q2) = P( L and Q2) / P(Q2) = (7/52) / (13/52) = 7/13 = 53.85%  44.23%. => DEPENDENT P(L|Q1) = P( L and Q3) / P(Q3) = (4/52) / (14/52) = 2/7 = 28.57%  44.23% => DEPENDENT P(L|Q1) = P( L and Q4) / P(Q4) = (8/52) / (13/52) = 8/13 = 61.54%  44.23%. 8 ECON1193A_Asssigment #2 (Individual Case Study), Semester 1, 2021

=> DEPENDENT b) Investment of MMYT

The probability of a loss P(L) of each quarter is caculated by: P(L) = 31/52 = 59.62% P(L|Q1) = P( L and Q1) / P(Q1) = (9/52) / (12/52) = 3/4 = 75%  59.62% => DEPENDENT P(L|Q2) = P( L and Q2) / P(Q2) = (4/52) / (13/52) = 4/13 = 30.77%  59.62% => DEPENDENT P(L|Q1) = P( L and Q3) / P(Q3) = (5/52) / (14/52) = 5/14 = 35.71%  59.62% => DEPENDENT P(L|Q1) = P( L and Q4) / P(Q4) = (3/52) / (13/52) = 3/13 = 23.08%  59.62% => DEPENDENT *Conclusion: The probability of loss depends on which quarter the investment is made for both cryptocurrency and company share because of the probability of loss is not affected by the probability of any quarters. 7. Level of Confidence

Significant Level  Confident Level: 1-  Population Standard Deviation  Sample Size n Sample mean x Standard Deviation S /2 Degree of Fredoom (d.f) t-critical value  

SNT 0.05 0.95 52 4.01% 20.26% 0.025 51 2.007584

The T-table is used as the  is unknown Confidence Interval Estimate: x  t

MMYT 0.05 0.95 52 0.87% 9.80% 0.025 51 2. 007584

n-1

S  MMYT

 SNT  = x  tn-1

S √n

 = x  tn-1

S √n

20.26 9.80 9  = 4.01  2.007584  = 0.87  2.007584 √ 52 √52 ECON1193A_Asssigment #2 (Individual Case Study), Semester 1, 2021  = 4.01  5.64  = 0.87  2.53 1 63

9 65

1 66

34

 Assumption: There are no required assumptions to calculate these confident intervals even though the standard deviation is unknown. To this beauce the sample size ( n=52) is larger than the standard 30. Hence, the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is applied, then it changes the shape of the distribution to normal distribution. 8. Interval Change and Explanation If there is a longer investment period, the sample size will increase and this will decrease the standard error as more data value engaged with the calculations of the mean. The standard error is an inverse ratio to the sample size, which means the more sample size, the less standard error. At the point when financial backers have more time, they will raise the probability of success of investments because they will presently become familiar with the data and slip-ups of organizations. Therefore, if the investment is made for a longer time, the interval change will be higher. It is concerned that the most essential measure of volatility used is the standard deviation (Boyte-White 2021). The wider the standard deviation appears, the more fluctuated stock's price inside the given period. Thereby, the standard deviation of SNT's weekly return is higher as shown in figure 6, therefore this investment will likely have a higher price volatility risk in a long time. 9. Global Economic Crisis Situation As mentioned in the question that a global economic crisis would prompt higher volatility in the cryptocurrency and company share prices. It is considered that it would take the confidence interval width to be extended. At the point when the real estate market fell, numerous mortgage holders defaulted on their credits. These defaults resonated with all the financial sectors. Thus, companies working with banks were affected, and this walloped their stocks. With the crisis, the savings increase sharply making the expense of capital and falling in private investment. These results will decrease the weekly return of SNT and MMYT, which also causes the decline in mean. So it leads to the diminishing in the confidence interval as the confidence interval estimation formula relates to the mean. 10. Hypothesis Testing  Weekly Return of SNT Step1: The sample is normal distribution based on Q7. Step2&4: H0:  = 3% (Claim) H1:   3%  => Two-tailed test Step3: T-table as  is unknown (based on Q7). Step5: Critcal value (t) =  2.007584 ´x − ¿ 4.01 −3 Step6: Test statistic (t): t = = 0.36 S/√ n = 20.26 / √ 52 ¿ Step7: As test statistic falls in RR, hence we reject H0. Step8: As we reject H0, hence with 95% level of confidence, we can say that the average weekly SNT investment returns are NOT similar in year 2020. Step9: As we say that the average weekly SNT investment returns are NOT similar in year 2020, but actually, the average weekly SNT investment returns might be similar in year 2020.  Weekly Return of MMYT Step1: The sample is normal distribution based on Q7 10 ECON1193A_Asssigment #2 (Individual Case Study), Semester 1, 2021

Step2&4: H0:  = 1% (Claim) H1:   1%  => Two-tailed test Step3: T-table as  is unknown (based on Q7). Step5: Critcal value (t) =  2.007584 ´x − ¿ 0.87 −1 Step6: Test statistic (t): t = = -0.10 S/√ n = 9.80/ √52 ¿ Step7: As test statistic falls in RR, hence we reject H0. Step8: As we reject H0, hence with 95% level of confidence, we can say that the average weekly MMYT investment returns are NOT similar in year 2020. Step9: As we say that the average weekly MMYT investment returns are NOT similar in year 2020, but actually, the average weekly MMYT investment returns might be similar in year 2020. PART B In my opinion, investing in stocks is already a kind of risky thing, so if we go hunting, the booty should be epic. As an adventurous person, my recommendation is to invest in Status stock - SNT, because there is a higher likelihood of getting a higher return, but the risk of failure also rises along. This because, as the data shown in figure 5, the middle value of SNT cryptocurrency’s weekly return was higher than that of MMYT, which 2.51% > 1.68%. Moreover, the standard deviation of SNT’s weekly return was much higher than that of MMYT, which means that the SNT’s price fluctuation risk was double higher than MMYT’s one. However, as the result of calculating the probability of loss in question 6, the possibility of loss in Status stock was lower than MakeMyTrip Limited stock 15.39%. Therefore, investing in SNT is not all about risk as its returns were still high. From my viewpoint, the factor that impacts me on investing in technological development. Because Status is an opensource messaging platform that interacts with development D-apps, so it has potential growth in the technological area (Kapilkov 2020, Upadhyay 2021). Thus, the value of the SNT token is expected to increase in the future, too. Furthermore, the second factor that influences my investing in the company share is that travel is never boring. As mentioned above, MakeMyTrip Limited is the most popular traveling company in India so it already has a particular value on the stock market. In addition, the world will be back to normal soon so it is expected that a huge increase in clients using the service after a long time staying home (Law 2021). In an aspect, the more travelers using MakeMyTrip’s service, the more MMYT prices go up in the next few years. REFERENCES: Benzinga Insights 2021, ‘Earnings Outlook for MakeMyTrip’, Yahoo Finance, 27 January, viewed 29 April 2021, . Boyte-White C 2021, ‘What is the best measure of Stock Price Volatility?’, Investopedia, 3 February, viewed 2 May 2021, .

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Cryptonews n.d, What is Status (SNT)?, Market Cap, Home, viewed 26 April 2021, . Kapilkov M 2020, ‘Attempting to stifle encryption is a waste of time, suggests Status security chief’, Cointelegraph, 15 October, viewed 2 May 2021, . Law A 2021, ‘MakeMyTrip expects to recover business to pre-Covid levels’, The Hindu Business Line, 27 February, viewed 2 May 2021,

MakeMyTrip n.d, Comapany Profile, MakeMyTrip, viewed 26 April 2021, . Sessa J 2018, ‘What is Status (SNT)? | Beginner’s Guide’, Coincentral, 8 February, viewed 26 April 2021, . The Economic Times 2010, ‘MakeMyTrip fixes IPO price at $14/share; to raise $7-mn’, The Economic Times, 12 August, viewed 26 April 2021, . Upadhyay R 2021, ‘Qtum, Status (SNT), and Lota (MIOTA) rally after breaking muti-year downtrend’, COINTELEGRAPH, 11 February, viewed 29 April 2021, . Yahoo Finacne n.d, Status USD (SNT-USD) – profile, Yahoo Finance, viewed 26 April 2021 . Yahoo Finance 2021, MakeMyTrip Limited (MMYT) – chart, Yahoo Finance, viewed 26 April 2021, .

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