Ffcrc Pestel & VUCA A1 Notes PDF

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Description

Political -

Paris Agreement

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Elections

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Trade policy

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Government Leadership/Policies (e.g. nuclear)

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Geopolitics

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Government Funding/Grants (also considered under economic)

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Consumer protection

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Joint venture between countries

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Political stability/priorities

Economic -

Taxes/Tariffs

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Shareholder needs/demands

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Covid-19 (also considered under social)

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Access to capital

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GDP of host country

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Affordable fuels

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Growth rate & Projections

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Govt grants

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Increased competition

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New domestic markets

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Consumer trends/cost

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Investments

Social -

Concern about global warming

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Population growth/demographics

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Lifestyle trends/change in lifestyle

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Consumer attitudes/opinions

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Education levels

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Social receptiveness/license

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Influx of new talent

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Cultural factors

Technological -

New innovations - technology to consume energy (e.g. EV)

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New fuels (e.g. biofuels, ethanol)

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Emissions from fuels (also considered under environmental)

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Infrastructure (physical)

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Communication

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Reliability of suppliers

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Developments in allied disciplines

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Capacity to produce H2

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Rate of tech diffusion

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Safety (also considered under social and environment)

Environment -

Infrastructure (environmental impacts)

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Deforestation

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Marine ecosystems

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Safe fuels

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H2 – cleaner energy that’s better for the environment

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Reduce carbon footprint through energy supply mix

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Geographical location

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Customer values

Legal -

Regulations

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Maritime law

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Pollution laws

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International legislation

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Paris Agreement (also under political)

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SGP – legislation – 2025 carbon neutral plans

Volatility No carbon emissions Explosive/flammable gases DANGER! Combustibility Feasibility Consumer safety Compensation Demand for various energy products will fluctuate significantly International relations – cooperation/competition between countries Investment needs are high – rates of return are quite variable Climate change, tech innovation and rapid fluctuation in energy market Institutional investors looking for clean tech V + A = competing projects internationally

Uncertainty Unknown market – demand is not assured Will it be profitable? Government rules/regulations (reflect where we currently are at, but as we brig new tech in it might change the rule) Cost of production What would be the source of H2 in the future? Affordable? Is our research being duplicated elsewhere with no more resources? Not sure which energy products are ‘fit for purpose’ in particular businesses/countries Security of jobs and job change Cost v benefit – attractiveness of various fuels Social acceptance – not assured Effectiveness/efficiency of technologies The correct blend of products has still to be determined Market response/reception It’s not clear whether or not H2 will be tolerated by the global community

Complexity Multinational agreements Country priorities/infrastructure Security of supply/source Cultural values on FF mix Many sectors/many uses – trucking, household, industrial Many businesses/govts are working on decarbonizing at the same time Transition from current energy generation to environmentally friendly practices Require a lot of coordination between govt, business, civil society groups Alternative energy sources might be overrated Laws/regulations are different in each country Nature of the market/different sectors Unclear how developments around the world will influence each other

Ambiguity Is it sustainable? Really? “Blue Sky Research Space” Hydrogen – at scale has not happened yet Speculative Who is investing in what? Trains? Trucks? Shipping? Commitment to Paris accord – how to do it? Unclear There is no clear responsibility pathway at the moment Development pathways for current energy employees H2 emerging market – never attempted on this scale before Stakeholders in the space are still trying to figure out who they should be working for best advantage Not clear who will invest in intermediate tech Who is investing in what? Trains? Trucks? Shipping? Hydrogen at scale has not happened yet Is it sustainable? Really? “Blue Sky Research Space” Speculative...