J614 Part II - Lecture notes ALL SECOND HALF PDF

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J614: Communication and Public Opinion Part II Lecture 11: Opinion and Perception I: Third Person Effects  How we perceive the impact of media 

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Concerns about the Media o Various categories of media spark concern:  Political advertising  Pornography  Combination of sex and violence – very damaging  Effects are not uniform  Misogynistic Music/Videos  Violent television o What else?  Advertising for cigarettes, condoms, etc.  Directed at elderly population o What is the nature of the concern?  Goal is to protect vulnerable populations –  Kids should not see ads of cigarettes  People who have history of sexual deviants should not be viewing pornography.  Kids with antisocial personalities shouldn’t’ see violent TV Basic Third Person Concepts o The Third Person Perception: (3pp) “Others are more affected by media messages than I am.”  Negative media effects – others are more affected  Positive media effects – I am more affected  Originally defined as 3rd person effect by Davidson o The Third Person Effect: (3pe) Cognitive and behavioral consequences of the 3pp  E.g. willingness to accept media censorship  If I think that others are really affected by pornography, violent TV, but I’m not – I’m more willing to censor it.  E.g. willingness to engage in “corrective action”  First observed by Gunther (1995_ and Rojas et al (1996) Theoretical Underpinnings o Why do we see others as being more affected by media messages than ourselves?  Ego-enhancing motivational bias – protect our own egos  “I am less affected by negative media messages.”  “I am not as easy to manipulate as you.”  Pluralistic ignorance, a general unawareness of what others really think and feel.  Fundamental Attribution Error o When I think of myself, I use situational attributions. For others, I use dispositional.

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“Something dispositional about you makes you susceptible to the message.”

Nature of Media Perceptions o Perceive others will be more affected by negative media content than will oneself:  Powerful Media: People tend to believe that media are persuasive and effects are common.  Hypodermic model of media influence  Personal Immunity: People also tend to feel immune to these effects o On one hand, the media is very powerful; but I’m unaffected by it.  Neither assumption is correct, yet they are the groundwork for why media has the effects it does on people. Past Research on 3pp o Perloff reports that 15/16 studies received found support for 3pp on a range of negative content:  TV violence  Pornography  Libelous news stories  Product advertisements  Negative political ads  Holocaust-denial advertisements  Media images of slimness o Several other forms of potentially harmful media content o The Third Person Effect (3pe)  Most common effect: desire to censor  Also on efforts to engage in corrective action  Buying goods in a food shortage  Posting comments online to respond o Results Supporting the 3pe:  Gunther (1995): greater 3pp associated with greater support for restrictions on pornography  Rojas (1996): 3pp associated with desire to censor TV violence, pornography and general media content  One of the most robust findings of communication research Antecedents and Consequences o McLeod – [look at slides] o Research Questions  Does the 3pp occur for violent and misogynistic music??  Is there a connection between 3pp and 3pe?  Who is seen as more affected by negative influence?  What explains who perceives others are more affected? 3pp and 3pe o 3pp predicts support for censorship  3pp differential better predictor than overall perceived negative effects o The further I get away from myself, the more susceptible I believe the group to be.

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Me  Students at Wisconsin  People in Madison  Adults in Madison  Adults in general o We perceive people to get the greatest effects as the people who are targeted most by the content  Who is likely to be the audience of that?  Target audience Antecedents of 3pp o Past research suggest several potential predictors of perceived effects:  Perceived exposure to content  Perceived common sense of content target  Paternalism – “I know what’s best”  Perceived anti-social nature of content Self and Other Perceptions o Significant predictors for self:  Common sense (reduces perceived effects)  Anti-social lyrics (reduces perceived effects)  Conditional effects model for self  Internal factors mediate effects o Significant predictors for others:  Perceived exposure (increases perceived effects)  Paternalism (increases perceived effects)  Direct effects model for others  Internal factors within individuals do not mediate effects – directly implicated Big Questions about 3PP & 3PE o Is the judgment of effect on self based on an assumption about “dosage” or “potency?”  Ex. I am not effected because I do not see it  If I don’t consume a lot of pornography o Is the judgment of effect of other based on an estimate of a small effect on many people or a large effect on a few?  Ex. Porn may make sociopaths dangerous Shift in Perception o Agenda setting, framing, priming, cultivation and Ads all have direct effects  Media content shapes opinion  Ex. Frame of message shapes issue interpretation o Third-person effects driven by perceptions of effects on self and others.  Media content spurs perceptions  Ex. Perception of influences shapes Theories of Media Effects – Supreme Court o Agenda Setting  http://www.jstor.org/stable/2960488?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents  https://books.google.com/books? id=3s2KBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA167&lpg=PA167&dq=supreme+court's+age nda+setting+ability&source=bl&ots=7Fd07mrAL&sig=hse9LRwQlC6oCWaMAZbvP-eB-

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October 18, 2017 Lecture 12: Spiral of Silence  What is public opinion? o Any opinion held by a majority of citizens?  Democratic view – the general will o Any opinion about public affairs?  Liberal democratic view – all are valid o Only reasoned opinion about issues?  Elitist view – only informed opinions count  Those who have really thought through this o Each of these is about forming preferences and expressing those views  Another definition – o Public opinion is any opinion that can be expressed without sanctions.  Role of social control; you may hold certain view points that you don’t think you can express.  Ex. Conservative opinions on Madison campus  Can state without fear of social isolation  Here, pubic opinion is a matter of visibility  Minority opinions must be seen for those who hold them to feel comfortable expressing themselves. o This is about the perceptions of the opinion climate and the ability to speak out without risks.  Not necessarily what’s really happen  Our perceptions may not align with what the real viewpoints are  Ex. 90% of the UW-Madison campus is not liberal – it’s 80:20 o What opinions are visible? Out there?  If I don’t see other people expressing the viewpoint that I hold, I start to think I’m the only one who holds it.  Media Influence o Direct Method: Communication, arguments, and opinions that change the mind of the audience.  Agenda setting, framing, priming, cultivation, and some campaign/advertising effects.  Message environment has direct effect on opinion o Indirect Method: Effect of communication is through its presumed influence on others  Present indicators of what seems to be opinion  If I don’t see what I believe in the media – I think nobody thinks what I think  Media convey an impression of how accepted an opinion may be now or in future  Not covering, they’re the arbiters of what’s acceptable, then my viewpoint isn’t valid.  Spiral of Silence: Perception of opinion climate o Societal norms can be intimidating o Understand public opinion as a tangible force

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Intense social pressure can be brought to bear on the person who dares to test the boundaries.  Ex. Mahr’s show post 9/11 got shut down because he gave a counterargument o Perception of distribution of opinion shapes willingness to express opinions  People express opinions more confidently when they see they are in the majority or “gaining ground.”  People are unwilling to express opinions that run counter to their perception of majority view. Opinion Expression: o What opinions can be expressed?  Opinions that do not risk fear of social isolation  Fear of isolation is powerful  Opinions that are publically visible  Can be a minority opinion, but minority must speak out and act as if it is, or will be, majority.  Ex. Protest movements even when you lose an election – if you don’t continue to voice your opinion then it may die out. o People have a “quasi-statistical organ”  A sixth sense that provides information about what society is thinking and feeling.  Ability to sense our environment and pick up cues about our environment; see what society is feeling and thinking  figure out future trends.  Constantly scan the environment to gauge the climate of opinion and future trends o People who are most tuned in are the ones who will respond to the way that others want them to say/think Fear of Isolation: o Fear of isolation is the key force that drives the spiral of silence.  Group pressure has tremendous influence  We don’t like to be excluded for our views. o Theory about obedience to authority in World War II – citizens in Nazi Germany  Grew out of attempt to account of German citizenry in the lead up to the Holocaust.  “Apology theory”  Theory that has tainted background  Tries to explain why Germans didn’t step up to help Neumann (1974) introduced the “spiral of silence” as an attempt to explain how public opinion is formed and also attempting to explain why Germans in the 1930s supported political positions that led to war and genocide. o Birth of socialism Why Spiral? o Effect spirals over time because at the minority opinion is expressed less and less, increasingly those who hold it come to think no one else agrees with them, and may even try to talk themselves out of their own beliefs

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o Nazi party controlled the press, the newspaper—everything  What is right/visible/ok to say  What is reflected in the media Mass media influences the spiral of silence in that the more mass media persuades people that their opinion is outlying, the more the spiral effect. Polling and the Spiral of Silence o The implications of this are that pollsters should not just ask about an individual’s own opinions  Must ask what a person perceives to be the predominant view o People are hesitant to express a preference that they feel is generally unpopular, so the pollster needs to know what people think is the prevailing or dominant view. The Spiral of Silence theory has been criticized for ambiguity and methodological weakness. o Backed her theories with some empirical research, but also with references to historical intellectuals—  Machiavelli, Rousseau, Hobbes  No evidence o But criticism not withstanding, her ideas are worth considering o Does it apply everywhere? China? o Is it just an apology? The Gulf War: An example? o During the 1991 Gulf War U.S. support for the war was measured in a suervye that asked about people’s opinions o Overall, respondents were clearly less supportive of the war was the popular support depicted by the media. o But those who watched TV seemed to have developed the impression that the public supported the war, and were the ones who supported the war themselves. Does it matter Noelle-Neumann was a Nazi? o Nazi Party Member o Worked for Goebbels, head of Nazi Propaganda o Wrote for Das Reich, but late withdrew/recanted o Not an innocent bystander; out there putting out anti-Semitic views o Signed her work “heil Hitler” o “Alibi” o “Dismissed from Das Reich” Questions to think about: o Does the Spiral of Silence theory ring true to you? o What sort of experiment could you design to test it?  Is it a falsifiable theory? o Does Noelle-Neumann’s involvement with Hitler’s regime invalidate her ideas? o Does her reaction to Simpson’s expose invalidate her ideas? Social Influence o Considers effects of group settings on attitudes, opinion expression, behavior o Largely based on experimental research

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 Asch’s work on social conformity Minority Influence o Doesn’t take a lot to change this –  Minority opinion can exert really powerful force  If there is more than 1  If certain people are willing to be outspoken, other people will join them  But this comes with the risk of social sanctions o Judgments about the color of slides o Consistent incorrect assessment by minority o Portion of subjects agree in error o Implication:  Minority opinion can exert power  Bandwagon v. Siding with the Underdog Obedience o Subjects are randomly assignment to the role of teacher and asked to administer shocks to pupils for incorrect responses o Pupils were actually part of the experiment o The highest shock is labeled “XXX!!!!” o 65% of people go to the highest level o 70% of people will go to extreme intensity o When leaders of a state tells you how to think – this exerts powerful influence Milgram’s Obedience Experiment o Different subjects, locations ~ o Decrease proximity of authority – o Increase connect to student – o Involve obedient others + o Involve disobedient others – o Overall, the effect is remarkably robust. o Authority has powerful influence, to the point where we can make people not express the viewpoints they hold When to speak or keep silent o Conformity and compliance have great social power over individuals  Those in the minority positions tend to keep quiet if they do not sense support.  Not that they change their minds  “Duck their heads and keep their own council” Summary o People have the ability to gauge trends of public sentiment o People justifiably fear social isolation o People are hesitant to express minority viewpoints, especially if “losing ground.” Media Influence o Mass media work jointly with majority opinion to silence minority views  Especially if the state controls the media  Mass media, particularly TV...