LBA Sea-Level Rise - Analyzing sea-level rise in San Francisco. PDF

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Analyzing sea-level rise in San Francisco....

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LBA: Global Impacts of Sea Level Rise

2 LBA: Global Impacts of Sea Level Rise In the twenty-first century, the world faces a climate change problem. One of the most dangerous impacts it makes on the Earth is the sea level rise. In the twentieth century, the global mean sea level rose 11–16 cm and rapidly followed this pattern (Kulp, 2019). Converting sea level predictions into possible population exposure is essential to plan the coast lining, evaluate the benefits of climate mitigation and the costs of ignoring the problem. This paper will analyze the sea level rise in San Francisco. Because the question of the impact of sea-level rise on San Francisco is too broad to answer, we will apply #breakitdown to find a tractable place to consider. The first subproblem is to identify multiple areas we can further analyze; it can be the district such as Sunset, Lake Merced, Richmond, Port. We will focus on the coastal region since the sea level rise will affect it first; there is no need to analyze the central areas. The second problem is to consider the area’s beneficial functions for San Francisco - transportation, recreation, education, and commercial use. Recreational activities like windsurfing, swimming, enjoying a bonfire are things San Franciscans like doing at the beaches. Adjacent to Golden Gate Park, Ocean Beach is one of the most popular. Thus, thinking about two subproblems and combining solutions, we find a tractable question to look at - how will the rise of sea level affect Ocean Beach?1 Since the late nineteenth century, San Francisco has recorded an average sea-level rise of about 2 mm per year; this is comparable to a global average of 1.4 mm per year (Sea Level Rise along California, 2018). To make a mathematical model, we make assumptions about the data: the sea level rise rate per year will remain constant, and there will not be any human interactions (that is, no one will invent something that will decrease the sea level rise). Thus, taking the 2020

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#breakitdown - I explain why it is beneficial to decompose a question. I effectively decompose a problem into two clear sub-questions, and combining solutions for both; I find a tractable component to focus on further in the paper.

3 year as a baseline with the sea level of 2 mm, we construct a table till 2120 with the sea level rising at 2 mm each year for our model.2 Using it, we make a linear visualization that compares the two variables - time against the sea-level rise (Figure 1).

Figure 1. This is a line graph that shows the relationship between the sea level rise in millimeters and time in years over the 2020 to 2120 period. The green line represents the overall trend of the sea level increase. This visualization helps to make predictions about the results of data not yet recorded. Note that the data are approximations, taking the 2 mm rise per year; it may become worse or better depending on human actions.3

According to data, the sea level will increase to nearly 20 cm (1 cm = 10 mm), which is dangerous for the Ocean beach coast. To further prove the vulnerability of the area and the

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#modeling - I developed a linear mathematical model making appropriate assumptions to generate an efficient amount of data. I explained the pattern in the data and further explained the predictions produced from the model. 3 #dataviz - I created an understandable line graph by plotting two variables - sea-level rise and time. I put a title, labeled the x and y-axis, and wrote a well-generated description. Considering the previous comments, I used a red color for my line to make it easier for one to look at and eliminated the gridlines.

4 plausibility of the previously obtained result, the following figure from another independent study also covered Ocean beach in the vulnerable zone from the sea level rise impact (Figure 2).

Figure 2. This map shows the vulnerable areas to the sea level rise in San Francisco. The blue line separates the sea level rise vulnerability zone. Note: Zone represents the upper range (unlikely, but possible), end-of-century projections plus temporary flooding due to a 100-year extreme storm (up to 42 inches) for a total of 108 inches above today’s average high tide.

5 According to the data visualizations and model prediction, we hypothesize that if the sea level continues to rise at the rate of approximately 2 mm per year, then the Ocean Beach will sink under the water in the next 100 years. The prediction that arises is that San Francisco will suffer economic losses due to the decrease of tourists and locals since Ocean Beach is one of the most popular recreational sites.4

Word count: 498 words.

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#hypothesisdevelopment - Using the graph and the model predictions, I identified the sea-level rise's possible outcome and generated a hypothesis, justifying my idea and assumptions. The hypothesis is focused and specific enough to answer. Also, I generated a prediction that develops from the hypothesis.

6 References Kulp, S. A., & Strauss, B. H. (2019, October 29). New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding . Nature News. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z San Francisco Planning Department. (2016). Sea level rise action plan. City County of San Francisco . https://default.sfplanning.org/plans-and-programs/planning-for-the-city/sea-level-rise/160 309_SLRAP_Final_ED.pdf Sea Level Rise Along California: Questions & Answers (2018). San Francisco BayKeeper. https://baykeeper.org/shoreview/california-slr.html Simon, M. (2018, April 11). Want to Fight Sea Level Rise? Look to San Francisco's Ocean Beach. Wired. https://www.wired.com/story/want-to-fight-sea-level-rise-look-to-san-franciscos-ocean-b each/...