Lecture 21 - Professor Alima M. Bucciantini PDF

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Professor Alima M. Bucciantini...

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Lecture 21: US Declined in a Globalized World Sunday, April 7, 2019 9:55 PM

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9/11 changed the outlook on national and international security Not the first terrorist attack  Oklahoma City  Earlier WTC, etc.  But first large-scale, internationally organized attacks in the US o New Cold War?  Without the clear boundaries and enemies Bush Doctrine (George W. Bush) o The US should reserve for itself the right to take pre-emptive action against potential security threats o Justified the strike against Iraq for having weapons of mass destruction  Nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons that can destroy a large amount of people without discriminating between soldiers and civilian populations, and also hugely injure life and property. Generally considered to be outside the 'civilized' rules of war o Also expanded the Bush Doctrine when defining an Axis of Evil  Iran, Iraq, North Korea Going into Iraq (The Sequel) o Between 2002 and 2003 discussions were held in US, internationally and at UN about going into Iraq over WMDs o March 20, 2003 US soldiers went in  Operation Iraqi Freedom  April 15 this was deemed to be successful o At first it was  June 2004 Iraq was an independent state  2005 independent elections What Went Wrong in Iraq? o US seen as trying to impose itself on another country for too long  Deciding who should be leader, how country should be split up, etc.  Echoes of colonialism (and of the Cold War) o Sectarian Violence  Minority population of Sunnis had been in charge under Saddam  If democracy is really put it, majority population of Shia will likely be in charge  Why would Sunnis want this?? o Al-Qaeda took advantage of both these factors to destabilize the region  Osama Bin Laden's group  The worst the instability got, the more power Al-Qaeda got How did we try to fix this? o President Bush increased troop numbers in 2007  US force became 150,000 o Critics compared to Vietnam o President Obama started a draw-down  'Final' US troops left in 2011 

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Afghanistan o Situation in Afghanistan similar to Iraq  Operation Enduring Freedom began in 2001  National government had been set up (technically) by US and Afghans in 2002  Resurgence of the Taliban in 2003  Because of opium trade o President Obama increased troop numbers o By 2011, close to 100,000 US troops and 40,000 NATO troops o Now still 13,000 foreign (including US) soldiers there, no plans for withdrawal The 'War on Terror' Elsewhere o The Bali bombings in October 2002 meant that other parts of the world had to get involved  ASEAN decided to let each member state formulate its own security response o Philippines let US give military aid, including troops, but did not join 'global war on terror' o Singapore and Malaysia increased surveillance but little US involvement o Indonesia did a lot of de-radicalization, which was seen as soft in West, but seemed to work Nuclear Non-Proliferation o This had been an issue since the development of nuclear weapons o Even though we now know the WMD justification for the invasion of Iraq was mistaken, it did have a few good outcomes  Libya announced in December 2003 that it was going to abandon its WMD program  North Korea appeared to do the same o Iran did not at this point  Though it did in a deal in 2015  Now we have stopped that deal (lasted 2-2 1/2 years) o The big issue with nuclear non-proliferation is that the more of these weapons that are around, the more they can get into the hands of non-state actors (terrorist group), etc. President Obama globally popular, but not actually doing things that differently o Troops not home from war o Guantanamo not closed o Mass surveillance, including on international leaders o Economy sluggish o Human rights issues globally in US What to do about China? o Global thought said that US had been ignoring China o New cold war US/China o Obama strategy was all strategies at once  "6 key lines of action: strengthen bilateral security alliances; deepening our working relationships, including China' engaging with regional multilateral institutions; expanding trade and investment" Currently with China o President Trump complained about an unfair trading relationship with China before he took office o US launched an investigation into Chinese trade policy in 2017

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US had put 3 rounds of tariffs on Chinese goods so far China has retaliated with tariffs on American goods  Particularly those produced in Republican districts  Harley-Davidson, Jack Daniels, peanuts, etc. Conclusions o Was the US an 'ailing superpower' after 2001?  Failures in foreign policy, economics, growing internal division o Or was it still strong?  Strong sense of what it wants, strong international presence, still seen as default international power o Are we on the brink of a new Cold War?  Either with China or with Russia, or with both, more or less? o The US has been declining from where it was post-WWII, but that amount of global power relative to others would have been impossible to hold onto as others (EU, ASEAN, etc.) grew. The 'what's next' is the interesting question....