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Measuring Public Opinion ● Deflategate : Why might this information (and other findings that I didn’t show) matter for the Patriots? The NFL? And, the PR practitioners that present them? ○ If you do make a statement, which audience to target the message to ○ If you should make a statement or not (is the news/conversation going away) ○ NFL wants to look at if there is negative comments about the league (ex: no integrity; rigged) So, Why Does Public Opinion Matter? ● Public opinion = a powerful force… ○ Impacts decisions (ex: Asch line experiment) Theories of Public Opinion: Spiral of Silence ● Assumptions: ○ Society threatens with isolation those people who violate moral consensus ○ We fear this isolation and try to prevent it from happening ○ Therefore, we constantly monitor our environment and have developed a quasi-statistical sense of the climate of public opinion ○ We share our opinions when we believe they are the dominant opinion, or the opinion on the rise (i.e., a bandwagon effect) ○ The media often gives a platform to the loudest voices (even though they may represent a minority opinion) ○ Together, this results in the spiral of silence… ● Perceived strength of majority position ; number of people unwilling to express minority opinion ● Why might this matter for PR practitioners? Perceived opinion = kinda reality; we believe what we see So, What is “Public Opinion”? ● The collection of views or opinions held by people about issues concerning them ○ Self-interest plays a role in public opinion, including making opinions resistant (or open) to change ○ But, major events can have dramatic impacts on public opinion ○ As can elites Public Opinion and Self-Interest ● Ryan Braun accused of steroid use ○ My friends (Wisconsin baseball fans) said there should be no punishment; called the report erroneous and accused many lies of incompetency ○ Mainted this stance even as evidence mounted ○ After Braun admitted steroid use, many still maintained this stance, or shifted to the “everyone is doing it” argument … Or, Highly Flexible ● Johnny Manziel vs. Todd Gurley ○ With no interest in the Aggies season and a general dislike of Manziel, my opinion was that rules were (likely) broken and he should be suspended

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… one year later and i felt the rule was ridiculous and no suspension warranted (when Todd Gurley sold his autograph (did the same thing as Manziel)) Be Careful of Major Events: Trust in the Federal Government ● Those trusting the federal government “just about always” or “most of the time” to do what is right → drastically dropped around 9/11 A Brief History of Media Effects… ● Before 1940s: ○ Naive outlook toward media and research based on: ■ WWI Propaganda ■ Orson Welles’ “War of the Worlds” (Oct., 1938) ● Media as “magic bullet” ● During and immediately after WWII: ○ Involvement of government in applied research ○ Columbia’s “Bureau of Applied Social Research” ■ Lazarsfeld et al: The People’s Choice ■ New developments in research techniques ■ “Reinforcement and two-step flow” The Importance of Opinion Leaders ● Opinion Leaders are typically… ○ Highly interested in a given subject or issue ○ Better informed that most (often college educated) ○ Avid consumers of media ○ Early adopters of new ideas / technologies ○ Have higher income ○ Active in the community and with recreation activities ○ Good organizers who can galvanize action The Multi-Step Flow Illustrated ● Information → media message → opinion leaders → attentive publics → less attentive publics … But it’s not just opinion leaders ● The media play a key role in influencing opinion as they are a crucial source for information ● Agenda Setting theory: ○ The media don’t tell us what to think, only what to think about ○ Of course, public relations specialists are responsible for anywhere between 50-60% of all media content Theories of Public Opinion: Agenda Setting ● What are the current issues that the media are telling us are important? It probably depends where you look… Theories of Public Opinion: Priming ● A memory-based effect whereby exposure to a stimulus influences later thinking Theories of Public Opinion: Framing ● A theory related to the presentation of information

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Defined a number of different ways by a number of different people ○ Some refer to framing as the selection of specific facts or pieces of information that journalists use in a news story ○ More rigid definitions focus on the presentation of equivalent information in communication ● CONTEXT MATTERS (B or 13) Framing: Some findings… ● Framing is often used in health communication campaigns ● Gain frames emphasize the advantages of a given action ○ “If you quit smoking you will live longer” ● Loss frames emphasize the disadvantages of failing to comply ○ “If you do not quit smoking you will die sooner” ● Gain frames typically work better for motivation prevention behaviors (e.g., sunscreen at the beach to prevent skin cancer) ● Loss frames typically work better for motivation detection behaviors (e.g., cancer screenings) Frames as Heuristics: The “Picture in our Heads” ● Frames are not about offering new facts ● Rather: frames differ in how they present issues ○ Estate tax vs. death tax ○ Drill for oil vs. explore for energy ● They are also important tools to help audiences… ○ Determine why an issue is important ■ E.g., is secondhand smoke a health issue or rights issue? ○ Efficiently process new information by connecting it to what we already know ■ E.g., habitual offender laws… 3-strikes and you’re out! Theories of Public Opinion: Framing ● The master of messaging We Try to Impact Public Opinion Through Persuasion Techniques ● Persuasion is used to… ○ Change or neutralize hostile opinions ○ Crystalize latent opinions and positive attitudes ○ Conserve favorable opinions But, How do we Persuade? ● In our discussion a couple of weeks ago we outlined attributes related to persuading people that focused specifically on the communicator… ○ Credibility / attractiveness of the messenger ● Similar issues include… ○ Expertise of the communicator ○ Their sincerity ○ And, charisma Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM)

Of Course, Different Approaches Work Better for Certain Products ● Feel → Learn → Do ○ High consequence decision ○ Larger emotional reward ○ Affective ○ E.g., engagement ring ● Learn → Feel → Do ○ High consequence decision ○ Larger rational reward ○ Informative decision ○ E.g., a new car ● Do → Feel → Learn ○ Low consequence decision ○ Larger emotional reward ○ Self-satisfaction ○ E.g., beer choice ● Do → Learn → Feel ○ Low consequence decision ○ Larger rational reward ○ Habit forming ○ E.g., ketchup Putting it All Together: Keys to Persuasion ● Audience analysis ○ Know who you’ll be communicating with ○ How involved are they? What do they think? Etc. ● Source credibility ○ Who can we have deliver our message? Recall those attributes we just discussed (expertise, sincerity & charisma)

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Making appeals to self-interest ○ Structure your message to appeal to your target ○ People are also driven by altruism ● Ensure the clarity of your message ○ Make the message accessible ○ Have a clear call to action ● Work in audience participation ○ Major growth in user-generated content ○ Participating reinforces their beliefs and adds credibility to the message ● Carefully determine the content and structure of your message ○ Will you use statistics? Exemplars? Appeals to logic? Appeals to emotion? Testimonials? Celebrity endorsements? Links to normative behavior… ● The more you tie it to the person the more likely people are to comply to what you’re asking But, It isn’t Always so Easy: Limits to Persuasion ● First, problems with message penetration ○ Sometimes impossible to ensure the message even reaches those it targets ● And a few additional issues… First, the Issue of Self-Selection ● Let’s say we get our message to the target audience… ● We live in an information age and it does not make sense for most of us to: ○ (a) attend to all the messages that come our way ○ (b) process those messages ○ (c) develop an in-depth attitude or understanding of the issue in question ■ We are “cognitive misers” … (we try to make the best decision possible for us with the least amount of thinking) Second, the Issue of Selective Perception ● … and we’re biased processors ● We process information through various perceptual filters, including ○ Religious beliefs ○ Trust ○ Political ideology ○ Etc. ● As a result: any given “fact” may mean different things to different people… Third, the Hostile Media Effect ● Another indicator of how we process mediated content ○ When we give an equivalent piece of communication to different partisan groups, each group tends to feel that the communication is biased against their point of view Finally, Some Ethics of Persuasion ● Don’t… ○ Use false evidence ○ Use specious reasoning

○ Falsely represent yourself ○ Use irrelevant appeals ○ Make false links ○ Conceal your purpose ○ Cover up consequences ○ Use baseless appeals ○ Oversimplify ○ Feign certainty ○ Advocate what you don’t believe yourself Remember this definition? ● Public Relations can be defined as… ○ “The strategic management of competition and conflict… for the mutual benefit of the organization and its various stakeholders and publics” ○ Competition and conflict are inherent to the PR process and practitioners must develop communication strategies to manage each Revisiting Our Knowledge of PR: Competition & Conflict ● Competition ○ Two or more groups fighting for the same resource ○ Ex: ALS ice bucket challenge ● Conflict ○ When groups direct their efforts against each other, often through verbal attacks ■ Ex: Coke/Pepsi ■ Ex: Sprint/Verizon Public Relations as the Management of Conflict ● What are some other real world examples of competition & conflict? ● Is conflict always bad for organizations? ○ Why or why not? How Do We Handle a Crisis?: Contingency Theory ● Stance-driven approach in managing conflict and crisis ● External and internal variables → stance → strategy Contingency Theory ● PR professionals monitor for threats, assess those threats, arrive at a desirable stance for the organization, and then begin communications efforts from that stance ○ Situational demands ■ Nature, duration, severity, size, complexity of the crisis; influence of actors, etc. ○ Resources ■ Time, money, knowledge, expertise, etc. ● The stance is dynamic; it changes as events unfold (advocating/competing/fighting it apologies/restitution) ○ Ex: Pepsi Kendall Jenner commercial The Amplification (or attenuation) of a Crisis

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Further complicating this process: public concern can be difficult to predict or disproportional to the actual risk… ○ risk/crisis event → information flow → interpretation & response → impact → further impact ○ Ex: Company X linked to contaminated frozen spinach → sick families share stories through media → consumers scared to buy company X frozen spinach → company x recalls their frozen spinach → recall all fresh spinach & other frozen foods; other companies follow The Conflict Management Life Cycle ● Proactive phase → strategic phase → reactive phase → recovery phase The Conflict Management Life Cycle: The Proactive Phase ● To prevent a conflict from arising or spreading ○ Environmental scanning: reading, watching, paying attention to matters of interest to organization ○ Issues tracking: a more narrowed version of above ○ Issues management: create strategic plans or begin modifying behavior to address emerging issues ○ Crisis plan: preparing for the worst The Conflict Management Life Cycle: The Strategic Phase ● Emerging conflict is identified as needing action ○ Risk communication: communicating the risk to vulnerable publics ○ Conflict positioning strategies: how can the organization best position itself in the “court of public opinion” and in preparing for possible litigation? ■ These two areas may be in conflict with one another ○ Crisis management plan: planning for crisis communication for the specific issue at hand The Conflict Management Life Cycle: The Reactive Phase ● Must react when conflict reaches a critical level of impact ○ Crisis communication: putting that planning into effect; help victims; communicate plans through media ○ Conflict resolution techniques: reduce the conflict and/or bring about a resolution ○ Litigation public relations: preparing for legal actions The Conflict Management Life Cycle: The Recovery Phase ● Strategies employed in the aftermath to bolster or repair reputation ○ Reputation management: research-based approach to understand and bolster reputation ○ Image restoration strategies: an extreme form of reputation management when damage to an organization is large ■ ValuJet acquires AirTran and takes their name Crisis and Risk Examples ● Accidents ● Terrorist attacks ● Disease epidemics

● Natural disasters Crisis Management ● Smoldering crisis vs. sudden crisis ○ 86% of business crises are “smoldering crises,” meaning there are clear warning signs Crisis Communication Management: Filling the Void ● Principle 1: when a crisis occurs, an information vacuum is created ● Principle 2: when a vacuum exists, it will be filled ○ By whom? With what? Crisis Management: How to Communicate During a Crisis ● Set up an information center ○ Monitor news coverage and the phone ● Designate a (strong) spokesperson ● Be accessible and honest ● Communicate with key publics ● Provide information often (understand the needs of media) ● Be careful about saying, “no comment” ● Put the public first ● Take responsibility -- Ryan Braun vs. Roger Clemens Let's Switch Gears (a little) into Risk Communication ● 1) Control or Efficacy -- how much control do you have over risk avoidance? (e.g., smoking vs. chemicals in my water) ● 2) Complexity -- how hard is it to avoid the risk (e.g., flu shots vs. changing my diet and exercise habits)? ● 3) Familiarity -- how familiar is the risk and the behavior required to avoid the risk (e.g., hurricane preparation)? ● 4) Message Consistency -- are your messages consistent? ● 5) Consequences -- do your audiences believe the consequences apply to them? Risk Communication: Extended Parallel Processing Model ● Four factors are believed to influence the outcome a fear appeal message: ○ Self-efficacy -- can i perform the tasks needed to control the threat/risk? ○ Response efficacy -- if I perform those tasks, will it prevent the threat/risk? ○ Susceptibility -- does the threat/risk impact me? ○ Severity -- is the threat/risk enough to worry about? Important Factors Related to the Public Relations Audience ● (1) Diversity ○ Geography, history, culture, etc. ● (2) expanding international audiences ● (3) Use of technology ○ Used to segment audiences and compile data ■ E.g., Google AdWords ○ Formation of online communities, which I’ll elaborate on in a second ● (4) Visual orientation

○ Compounded by smart phones, tablets, etc. ○ Shortened attention spans and the importance of the “sound bite” ● (5) Support for single issues ○ Finding like-minded others through technology often leads to singular focus on issues for people… what about other issues? ■ Bill Gates vs. Filter bubble ● (6) Emphasis on personality and celebrity ○ Can we trust celebrity tweets? Or, are these really just paid advertisements? ● (7) Distrust of authority ○ Makes PR crucially important, but also difficult How Might we Target Communications? ● Age, gender, ethnicity ● Marital status ● Education level; income level ● Location ● Media use habits ● Political beliefs ● Religious beliefs ● Etc. Identifying Audiences Based on Age ● Generation Z (born ~ 1997 to 2015) ○ aka , the Post-Millennial Generation, iGen ○ Make up 26% of the U.S. population -- slightly more than Millennials or Boomers ○ Spend only 8 min per day via PC ■ Online time is almost exclusively mobile ○ Less accepting of the idea of the “American Dream” ○ Self-identify as loyal, compassionate, open-minded, and determined, but see others in their generation as competitive, spontaneous, adventuresome, and curious ○ More risk-averse than previous generations ■ Lower alcohol and drug use rates ○ Interested in “making the world a better place” ● Millennials (born ~ 1981-1996) ○ Aka, Generation Y, E-generation ○ 80 million Millennials in U.S. equals high buying power ○ Spend ¼ to ⅓ of their lives online ■ Foster relationships online ○ (some) trends among Millenials: ■ 1) are not influenced by advertising ■ 3) review blogs before making a purchase ■ 4) value authenticity ■ 6) want to engage with brands on SNS ■ 7) want to co-create products with companies

■ 8) use multiple tech devices ■ 9) brand loyal ■ 10) expect brands to give back to society ● Generation X (born 1965 - 1980) ○ Independent ■ A generation of latch-key kids ○ Tech savvy & resources ○ Work to live rather than live to work ■ Not particularly employer loyal ○ Value freedom in the workplace ○ Disdain being micromanaged ○ Generally tolerant of “alternative” lifestyles ● Baby boomers (born between 1946-64) ○ Came of age during advent of television, giving them an appreciation for visual advertising ○ Question authority and take a strong position on social issues (60s mentality) ○ May retire later than their parents due to improved health as well as financial uncertainty ○ Are competitive in their careers and tend to define themselves according to their profession ○ Great appreciation for leisure time ○ Educated and take pride in accomplishment ● Seniors ○ Approximately 13% of today’s population ○ Are less easily convinced than young adults ○ Active in voting, reading media (senior women flocking to Facebook) ○ Excellent source of volunteers given free time and strong health ○ Extremely health conscious ■ Nintendo Wii/Norwegian Cruise Lines partnership ○ Have seen savings erode since the 2008 economic crisis Identifying Audiences Based on Gender & Lifestyle ● Women ○ Have significant purchasing power ■ Traditionally “male” businesses trying to capitalize on this by campaigning to women ● Harley Davidson: Female-only garage parties and instructional videos ○ Exercise great influence as opinion leaders ○ Large networks of friends ○ Have been labeled “multi-minded” ■ Able to balance roles as professionals, mothers, wives, etc. ● E.g., NFL marketing ● Men

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Another group that is evolving in terms of how they are portrayed and targeted ■ “Maleness ● The LGBT (Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Community) ○ An emerging demographic and lifestyle group ○ Brand loyal and tend to support companies and brands that reflect their views ○ Disposable income: ■ 29% of same-sex households have median incomes over $90,000 ■ 16 million LGBT adults have buying power of $743 billion / year ● Religious Groups ○ Are growing in market and political power (e.g., Catholic and evangelical Christian religious groups) ○ Movie studios developing projects in the aftermath of the success of “The Passion of the Christ” ■ E.g., Noah Identifying Audiences Based on Ethnicity: U.S. Census Bureau Data ● Key ethnic groups are growing five times faster than other segments of the population ○ Hispanics growing the fastest Identifying Audiences Based on Ethnicity ● Diversity media ○ The number of options for reaching minority audiences ○ Research concerning these publics has also shown impressive growth ○ And, we’re seeing a growth in targeted info based on race/ethnicity ● Hispanics ○ Fastest-growing ethnic group in U.S. ○ Increasingly regular users of social media ○ Heavy consumers of radio and TV ■ E.g., Spanish-language KLAX #1 during L.A. morning drive time ○ Text the most of any ethnic group ○ Diversity within minority populations: ■ “Perhaps 20 years ago, it was easy to translate a press release and blast that out to the US Hispanic market. Today, there is no such thing as one US Hispanic market, just like you can’t say there is one US consumer. There is so much complexity and richness” - JeffryGroup ○ Growing skepticism among Hispanic audiences when they feel a campaign has simply been translated into Spanish ■ A traditionally passionate and loyal demographic group if you can engage them ● African Americans ○ Rise of affluent African Americans ■ Buying power reached $1.2 trillion in 2016 ...