PO-218 - all notes PDF

Preview

Summary

all notes...

Description

Political Presidential Elections  Why we study Presidential Elections o A presidential election gauges the health of our democracy -- voter turnout & citizen engagement  What percent vote in primaries? -- 20-30%  What percent vote in caucuses? -- 5-10%  What percent vote in the general election? -- 55-60%  What percent volunteer for campaigns?  What percent make campaign contributions? o We learn about the demographic characteristics are associated with voter participation -tells us who is shaping the results  Age  Education  Race  Gender  Religion / Church attendance  Income  Partisanship o We learn about the policy priorities of the American people & whether people want to chart a new course for America o Charting New Courses  Jefferson (1800)  Jackson(1828)  Lincoln (1860)  McKinley (1896)  Roosevelt (1932)  Kennedy (1960)  Reagan (1980)  Obama (2008)  Trump (2016) -- a new course? o Nomination Process reveals which faction of a part is dominant -- classic intra-party battles  1952 -- Taft vs Eisenhower  1964 -- Goldwater vs Rockefeller  1968 -- LBJ vs McCarthy & Bobby Kennedy  1980 -- Reagan vs George H.W. Bush  1980 -- Carter vs Ted Kennedy  2000 -- G.W. Bush vs. McCain  2008 -- Obama vs Clinton  2012 -- Romney vs several factions with GOP -- Cain, Gingrich, & Santorum  2016 -- Trump vs Cruz  2016 -- Clinton vs Sanders o We learn about the role of party rules that affect election outcomes -- especially the nomination process  Superdelegates  Open vs closed primaries  Proportional vs winner -- take all primaries / caucuses o We learn about the continued role of parties by studying presidential elections o We learn about the old & the new paths to the American presidency

We learn about the rising forces of technology & social media & how it impacts the election outcome o We learn about the impact of laws & court rulings regarding campaign finance & the impact of these decisions on the election o We lean how the American people are gaining their information about presidential candidates  Print press  TV News  Campaign Ads  Robocalls  Campaign literature  Internet -- Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, Snapchat)  Magazines o We learn & can evaluate if the system in place for selecting presidents is serving the interests of the American republic o Is this the best way to select our President? o Is there a better system? The Emerging 2020 Presidential Elections o Right Track Wrong Track -- Public Opinion Under President Trump  WSJ/NBC News Poll  2017 -- 55% wrong track - 40% right track  2018 -- 61% wrong track -- 35% right track o President Trump’s Public Approval Ratings (Gallup Polls)  Latest Poll  Approve -- 44%  Disapproval -- 53% o The only president to win re-election with an approval rating below 50% was Harry Truman o DNC Announces 12 Debates  DNC Guidelines for Qualifying For Debates  Polls & Number of Donors Determine Who Participate -- Intended to Thin The Field  Thresholds Gradually Increased From One Debate To the Next o Democratic Field Beginning To Thin To Debate Guidelines  Seven Democratic Debates Thus Far  As Polling & Donor Thresholds Increased, Fewer Candidates Qualified To Participate  The More Popular & Well Financed Democrats Have Continued to Qualify For the Debates -- less popular & less funded are dropping out o Only 6 Candidates Qualified for Seventh Debate  Biden  Sanders  Warren  Buttigieg  Klobuchar  Steyer o Yang & Booker met the donor threshold, but not the polling requirement. Bloomberg cannot meet donor threshold because he is self-funding, but he did meet the polling requirement o Overview of the Democratic Nominating Process o



4,532 Convention Delegates at Stake 4,768 will be won in primaries & caucuses (many more primaries than caucuses in 2020)  Candidates won in primaries & caucuses will arrive at the Democratic Convention as Pledged Delegates Superdelegates  764 delegates will arrive at Democratic Convention as Unpledged aka “Superdelegates” Democratic Nominating Rules Support Proportionality  Candidates who win 15% or more of the vote in primaries or caucuses will win delegates in proportion to their percentage The Nominating Calendar  Iowa Caucuses -- February 3  Candidate should place in top 3 to remain viable  New Hampshire Primary -- February 11  Candidate should place in top 2 to remain viable Super Tuesday -- March 3  15 Democratic Contests  Many convention delegates won on this day  After March 3 33% of convention delegates will have been won by the candidates  Candidate Presentations Joe Biden  Was the youngest person to be in Congress (29 years old)  Biden becomes Barack Obama’s running mate & became the 47th Vice President of the United States  Helped passed the Affordable Care Act  Was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom from President Obama  Wants to rebuild the middle class  Implement universal background checks  Combat climate change  Fix the affordable care act  Advocate for women & immigrants  Biden is currently projected 47% chance of winning the Democratic Nomination currently Amy Klobuchar  In 2006 she became the 1st woman elected to the U.S. Senate in Minnesota  Core Positions (Aligns with Modern American Liberalism)  Gun Control  Pro-Choice  Health Care  Immigration  LGBTQ Rights  Supports Obamacare & disagrees with Bernie Sanders about eliminating private health insurance  Not a front-runner for the democratic nomination  Biden, Sanders, & Warren have secured top spots Tom Steyer  Served as a delegate to the DNC in 2004 & 2008  

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

Steyer spend approximately $10 million for a television ad campaign advocating the impeachment of Donald Trump  He has committed himself to spending $100 million in the race  Policy Views  Political System is corrupted by corporate influence  Lack of Transparency  100% clean energy economy  $2 trillion investment in America’s infrastructure  Delegate Apportionment For each party establishes its own apportionment formula for awarding convention delegates to each state & U.S. territories Democratic Party Formula For Delegate Allocation: What the DNC Considers to Distribute Delegates  Each state’s number of votes for Democratic presidential candidates in the past three elections… in relationship to the national Democratic vote in the last three national elections  Number of Electoral Votes a state has (population thus a factor in the formula)  The date of the state’s primary or caucus is also factored in  Bonus delegates for states that hold their primary or caucus later on the calendar  10% increase if contest is in April  20% increase if contest is in May  Delegates apportioned to each state are divided into statewide & congressional districts -- 15% applies to both levels Republican formula for allocating delegates to states  Each state has a base allocation of 10 convention delegates & additional 3 delegates for each congressional district  Bonus delegates for states that:  Voted for Republican nominee in last presidential election  Elected Republican governor, Senator, &/or state legislature  The Vice Presidency Originally there was no distinction in the first set of presidential elections regarding who was running for President & Vice President Electors in the Electoral College were allowed to cast two votes for President. Whoever placed first became President & however placed second was Vice President In 1796 Adams a Federalist was elected President. Jefferson the head of the Democratic Republicans placed second & served as Vice President Election of 1800 caused much confusion. Election ended up in the House of Representatives with Jefferson finally elected in the 36th ballot Amendment XII passed in 1804  Presidential Electors now required to cast one ballot for President & one ballor for Vice President  But President & Vice President cannot be from the same state -- avoids electors from voting for two “favorite sons”  It became clear who was running for President & who was running as the Vice President with the Presidential Candidate  The tradition of vice presidential running mates does not begin as a result of the Amendment. Tickets are now expected Vice Presidential Succession Was Not Addressed in Original Constitution 

o o

o

o o o o o

o

The Office of Vice President remained vacant if V.P. succeeded to the Presidency due to death of President Process of Selecting Running Mate Has Changed  Old Era -- Party Leaders at the Convention would put the tickets together. Convention delegates follow choice of the party bosses  Modern Era -- Presidential nominee selects his or her running mate (works with small advisory committee who vets the possible choices) -- Convention confirms the presidential nominee’s choice Key Consideration in Choice of Running Mate: Create a Balanced Ticket  Regional Balance  Ideological Balance  Age Balance  Gender Balance  Racial Balance  Policy Balance  Elected Office Balance  Reputation Balance  Campaign Finance & Presidential Elections Very little regulation for most of this country’s history Only real regulation was that Corporations & Labor Unions could not use their treasuries to fund campaigns Need for regulation continued to increase with the Watergate Scandal resulting in serious reform Public Funding of Presidential Elections a major reform Went into Effect for the first time in the 1976 Presidential Election. (Ford vs. Carter) Law provides for matching funds in primarties & full funding for party nominees in the general election -- with Ceilings. (Funds for Conventions existed but eventually eliminated in 2014) Federal Election Fund is funded by a voluntary tax check off on the income tax form -Decreasing number of Americans now contribute less than 10% of taxpayers Recent Supreme Court Rulings Deregulating Campaign Money Have Rendered Public Funding Obsolete for Leading Candidates  Because of Supreme Court rulings that have deregulated campaign money, presidential candidates don’t see the need to depend on public funding  Wealthy candidates (like Bloomberg & Steyer) can spend as much of their own money as they want  $103.7 million available for party nominees in 2020 (much less than candidates raise on their own) Super PACs & Corporate money Unleashed  SpeechNow.Org v. Federal Election Commission (2010) -- Gave Rise to SuperPACs  Citizens United v. Federal Election Commissions (2010) -- Corporations Have Free Speech  Media & Elections Sources of Political News Have Dramatically Changed Over The Years  It all started with newspapers. But newspapers for a good part of our country’s history were very partisan. Even the names reflected the partisan stance of the newspapers. Partisan newspapers were especially common in the 1700s & 1800s  As we crossed into the 1900s, newspapers became more objective & less blatantly partisan 

o

o

o o o o o o

o o

o

o

Rise of the Radio as a News Source  Radios never surpassed newspapers as a primary news source o And Then Television Arrived In The 1950s  Television would eventually surpass both newspapers & radio as the primary source of political information  Newspapers remained important for older voters  Campaign commercials aired on TV now became the norm, with candidates depending more on professional campaign consultants with backgrounds in commercial marketing to direct their campaigns  The Politics of Voter Turnout o Voting Rights in 2020  One might think that by 2020, controversies over voting rights have finally subsided & that universal agreement now exists that voting rights should be extended to all citizens, & that voting should be made as easy as possible  Although there has been federal intervention into states’ rights in order to extend voting rights, there are still many aspects of elections that fall under the jurisdiction of the states o State Law Can Determine  Open or Closed Primaries  A state can determine if it wants to have open or closed caucuses instead of a primary  Same Day Voter Registration  A majority of states have not adopted same day registration (CT has same day registration)  Early voting  A large majority of states now allow early voting (Not CT)  Voting By Mail  5 states allow voting by mail for all elections including presidential elections (Not CT)  Colorado  Hawaii  Oregon  Washington  Utah  The Rights of Convicted Felons to Vote  Voter ID Requirements o Turnout is normally about 10 points higher in states with same day voter registration The Republican Party o Kansas-Republican Act 1854  The Republican Party was officially formed in response to the controversial Kansas -- Nebraska Act that was passed by Congress in 1854  The Kansas-Nebraska Act repealed the Missouri compromise of 1820 that had regulated the spread of slavery by establishing a latitudinal dividing line between the north and the south  The Kansas-Nebraska Act was controversial because it allowed the people in the newly created terriroties of Kansas and Nebraska to decide for themselves whether or not to allow slavery to exist within their territorial borders  Essentially the Kansas-Nebraska Act allowed slavery to expand into these terroritories, which opponents of slavery in the North found objectionable o



o

o

o

o

o

Birth of the Republican Party  In response to the Kansas-Nebraska Act (1854) the call went out to form a new political party that would halt the spread of slavery in the US  The Whig Party, which had been in existence since the early 1830s, had been unrepsonsive to the slavery issue. The Democractic party, which had an even longer history than the Whigs, was divided into northern and southern factions, with southern Democrats strong supporters of slavery  There was also a Free Soil Party which opposed slavery, but this party was a small third party without much potential influence  Thus, a meeting was held in a small one room schoolhouse in Ripon Wisconsin on March 20, 1854, it was during this historic meeting that the Republican Party was born Republicans & The Presidency  The Republican Party ran John C. Fremont, aka “The Pathfinder” as its first presidential candidate in 1856. Fremont lost to Democrat James Buchanan in the election  In 1860, the Republican Party ran Abraham Lincoln who won. In that election, the Democrats were divided & ran two presidential candidates, one from the North & one from the South. There was also a party known as the Constitutional Union Party that ran a presidential candidate. Republican Success After the Civil War  The Republican Party as a result of Lincoln’s leadership was known as the party of the Union & the Federal Power. & beginning in the last half of the 19th century, the Republican Party also became associated with corporate & business interests. The Democratic Party had a strong base in the South & was the party of States’ Rights.  Republican presidential candidates won most of the presidential elections during the remainder of the 19th century after Lincoln’s presidency, which had ended tragically. Only one Democrat, Grover Cleveland, was elected president in the remaining elections of the 19th century Party Coalitions  Heading into the 1930s the Republican Party coalition drew its support from:  Protestants  African-Americans  Northerners  Business Interests  Rural Voters  The Democratic Party heading into the 1930s drew its support from:  Roman Catholics  Irish  Italians  White Southerners  Urban Residents  Labor Unions Post WWII: The Cold War  The Democratic Party in the years after WWII was now the majority party in American politics. FDR had transformed the Democratic Party into a large coalition of diverse interests, what some have referred to as the “New Deal Coalition”

But despite the fact that the Republican Party was no longer the majority party in American politics, it was still able to win presidential elections due to the Cold War. The 1960s  The 1960s were a time of great social upheaval much of it due to tensions caused by the Civil Rights Movement & the growing unpopularity of the Vietnam War  It was during 1960s that the Republican Party, which was still behind the Democratic Party in terms of numbers, began to experience a significant transformation within the ranks of its membership Trump’s Election: Another Partisan Realignment  Political commentators have been speculating that a possible realignment is once again underway under the presidency of Donald Trump  In particular, it is suggested that white working class voters, who for years have been a reliable component of the Democratic Party’s base, might be realigning with the Republican Party due to Trump’s leadership  The Electoral College The Electoral College was one of the compromises at the Constitutional Convention. Some delegates favored a direct popular vote to elect the President, while other delegates wanted the Congress to select the President. The compromise that resulted involved having a small group of citizens to serve as presidential electors with the authority to select the president. The Founders also created the Electoral College in order to preserve the principle of federalism. The Founders wanted the states to be the units for electing the President. The Founders felt that the Electoral College, by decentralizing the presidential election into states, would give more uniformity to the election contest. A constitutional amendment would be required to abolish the College. Each state is allocated a number of electoral votes based on the number of congresspersons and senators a state has. Every state has 2 senators & at least one congressperson has a minimum of 3 electoral votes. There are a total of 538 electoral votes. To win the presidency, a candidate must win a minimum of 270 electoral votes. Every presidential / vice presidential ticket is required to have a designated slate of electors in each state equal to the number of the state’s electoral votes. When you cast your vote, what you are doing is voting for the ticket’s slate of electors. 48 states & D.C. operate under the winner take all formula. Whichever presidential / vice presidential ticket wins the popular vote in a state will win all of the state’s electoral votes. The ballots are delivered to the nation’s Capital where they are counted in a ceremonial joint session of Congress in January. Both Maine & Nebraska have decided to adopt the District Plan for awarding electoral votes, rather than award electoral votes according to the winner take all formula. Whichever presidential candidate wins the popular vote automatically wins 2 electoral votes. The winner of the national popular vote may not win the Electoral College, resulting in a President without the support of the American people. This has happened 4 times in our nation’s history (1876, 1888, 2000, 2016) To ensure that the winner of the national popular vote is elected president, the Compact Plan calls for states to enter into a formal agreement with one another, i.e. a “compact” to award their electoral votes to the winner of the national vote, regardless of how the people vote within their own states. 

o

o

o

o o

o

o

o

o o

o

o

o

o

o

In the 2016 presidential election, 7 electors who were pledged to presidential candidates decided to break their pledge after the November election and voted for someone other than the candidate they were pledged to. Slightly over half of the states having laws binding electors to the candidate they are pledged to.  Laws that bind electors are currently being challenged before the Supreme Court during the 2019-2020 term. (Washington & Colorado) In the event a popular third party candidate enters the presidential contest and wins some states and thus a share of the electoral votes, it would then be decided by the House of Representatives. A t...