Riassunto The Industries of the Future (1) MOD PDF

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Riassunto svolto in risposta alle domande della prof. Canova caricate su Blackboard....

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The Industries of the Future - Alec Ross INTRODUCTION: The wrong side of globalization 1)What is the book about? This book talks about the future economy, it explores the industries of the next 20 years and the way they will influence our society. Through the book the author shares the knowledge he gained over the years. Chapters 1-2 discuss about robotics and life sciences and their big impact on society. Chapters 3-4 examine the application of computer code to different areas of economy. Chapters 5-6 talk about the expansiveness originated by big data and the limits of geopolitics. The sources that should be used and where business leader should invest their efforts are also analyzed. Lastly, the book explains how we should prepare children to this new innovative world. (ex. Iron was the raw material of the industrial age, data is the raw material of information age). The author is Alec Ross, who worked for Hillary Clinton and he believes that the days he spent with her gave him a good view of the forces shaping the world. While the first wave of innovation and globalization drew many people out of poverty, the coming one is threatening to return many to poverty, challenging the middle classes all over the world. Women’s role is decisive to strengthen competitiveness: there is no place between business leaders among companies with regressive policies on gender. CHAPTER 1: Here come the robots 1) What type of jobs /tasks will robots perform in the future? In the future robots could be used as care-takers for older people (ex. Toyota and Honda in Japan strict immigration policies, so it’s impossible to find young people to do this job). Honda is also creating robotic limbs (arti) and assistance devices which are not free-standing robots but robotic anyway. Robot educators in Africa. Another example of robot is PARO, it seems a real pet and it is thought for people who are too frail (fragile) to take care for a real animal or who live in places in which pets are not allowed (flats). Robots will not be able to completely replace humans (bathing patients or establish an emotional connection with them) but they’ll still be a good solution. 2) Which countries will lead the robotic revolution? The main leaders in robotic revolution are Japan, China, USA, South Korea and Germany (the “big five”), but other less developed areas, like African countries, have started to enter robot landscapes even if they haven’t got high-level technologies. The concept of “frugal innovation” is the ability of generating innovation based on the scarcity of materials. An example is AFRON (African Robotic Networks) encourages low-cost robotics education. The success of a country also depends on its culture  western culture is quite afraid of robots = machines, in Eastern culture there is the belief that both objects and humans have spirits, so robots = potential companions. 3) How will life be transformed by robots? Life will be transformed in many ways thanks to robots: caretakers for elderly people, low-cost robotic education, delivery drones (mail, food delivery), robot pets, driverless cars (ex. Google is working on this) there will be less accidents but it will lead to the replacement of taxi drivers. Life will be easier but some jobs will be at risk. The word singularity refers to the point when artificial intelligence will match or surpass human intelligence because they can not only do some things better than us but also things that would be impossible for people. 4) Discuss driverless cars, delivery drones and surgical robots There is the possibility of driverless cars, almost all the car companies are thinking about but the leader is Google. The company wants to avoid as much as possible car accidents, since there is reason to think that a driverless car would be safer, it is probable that at least partial-robotic driving will arrive soon. Even in this case some people will gain and other ones will be displaced. Robots are beginning to be used in the operating rooms to reach places in the human body, which cannot be reached by people but injuries from robotic surgery are quite common. However, Robots are also used in many other medicine fields, such as with people having hearing and speech impairments. Moreover, there are robots, which can be used to help students with autism; an example NAO, a robot that stand and sits on students’ desk and helps them do their works. Delivery drones (for mail, food delivery, etc)

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5) Will robots take over our jobs? Robots can do things that humans cannot, but their main uses are things that humans have been doing for centuries. Robots can be seen as the merger of two trends: the advancement of technology and the use of a servant class, which can provide cheap work for the higher social classes. Some jobs will be at risk because tasks which once were only for people, now are opening up to robots. This is possible thanks to the uplink of robots to the cloud and improvements in modelling belief space. Mainly, jobs that are hard to be automated may be safe for now. 6)What conclusions does the author offer? Robot will surely produce benefits to society (care takers, pets, etc.), but how different societies adapt will play a key role  cultural differences, political and economic openness (how companies will face these challenges? What will they do to ensure themselves a good outcome? 7) What is the difference between capex and opex The next generation of robots will be cheaper. Human labor involves low capital expenditures (money spent on buying) (capex) but high operational (cost/maintenance) expenditures ( opex) – service industry jobs/customer care, workers with a low wage) are at risk; the risk is given by the fact the capex (cost) of robots is going down, making them more attractive for employers. The job loss will be very differentiated by country. China, for example, is at high risk, since it has relied on cheap labor. The Chinese government is investing in the industries of the future while keeping labor costs low thanks to a forced urbanization. CHAPTER 2: The future of human machine 1)Will genomic research be able to cure cancer? Bert Volgestein, a researcher, helped the author understand the potential for new products and businesses built around genomics. He and his colleagues proved the fact that DNA mutations turn into cancer thanks to a simple blood test, his latest work called “liquid biopsy”. If the price goes down, this will become part of everyone’s annual check. Volgestein’s partner is Luis Diaz, according to whom better genetic diagnostic testing will allow doctors to catch the disease in its earliest stage and treat it with much higher cure rates. Currently we can study only 20.000 genes at time but there is the need of some progress in drug development (only 1 is developed at a time for now). Individual sequencing does not mean a unique treatment for every patient, but more specialized forms of treatment. These targeted treatments would be a great revolution. 2)Can genomics help with mental illness as well? Scientists want to break the brain’s code and start to use genomics to diagnose and treat neurological and mental illnesses. In the past, psychiatric illnesses were treated with psychotherapy and electroshock therapy in mental hospitals. Then antidepressants were discovered and in 2008 they were one of the most common drugs taken by Americans. In the post-antidepressant era, genomics is giving hope for some progress: the author’s uncle, Ray DePaulo is working with a team to develop a strategy and program to map the genes that are relevant to the field of psychiatry. The challenge is that most mental disorders are caused by many contributing factors. Nevertheless, in recent years there has been tremendous progresses. One interesting area is suicide prevention: a gene (ACP1) appears to be linked with suicide. By digging into the genetics of suicidal, it is possible to develop a treatment that reduces the biological impulse to kill oneself. 3)What's the “dark side” of genomics? One of the main concerns of genomics is that as it grows more sophisticated, it will begin a process of creating designer babies. It is possible today to take blood sample from pregnant woman and reassemble the genome of the fetus. This will tell her what risks the baby may have (ex. Down syndrome) and other details (how much he/she is going to look like, aptitudes, particular behaviours or addictions). Researchers are concerned that our society will opt for genetic selection. EX: 23andme is a genomic testing company that provides ancestry-related genetic reports and uninterpreted raw genetic data for its clients for only 99$. The company analyses some genes that have been linked to common diseases, but the quality of this information isn’t reliable. Another concern is that in socioeconomically depressed communities, genetic testing may cause people who already feel disempowered to further reconcile themselves to unhealthy lifestyles. A valid alternative is Genophene, “Basehealth” company’s product (a combination of sequencing the genome and “risk engine”), which serves up a personalized set of treatment recommendations to accompany the data

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about which diseases you may have. The product is only sold to doctors but its costs are also quickly coming down, so that this kind of testing can be adopted on a much wider scale. 4) What other health issues could be solved by genomics (xenotransplantation)? Craig Venter’s (scientist) company “Synthetic Genomics” aims to genetically engineer pigs with organs that can be safely transplanted into human beings. [Xenotransplantation] His second company is Human Longevity, Inc., which aspires to use genetic data to reverse the effects of aging. The “Revive & Restore” project was started to bring extinct animals back to life using advanced genomics technology by finding the most genetically similar animal and implanting it with the extinct animal’s embryo. This is another case, like designer babies, where technology and science put humans in a godlike role. But in the same way in which humans changed Earth’s climate, advances in genomics could alter world’s ecology. Keeping up with the genomic joneses (modo di dire: mostrarsi più ricchi di quello che si è per non sfigurare con chi lo è) There are three things necessary to create advances in sciences: great scientists, lots of capital, and a venture capital market to help turn academic research into commercial products. That is why most of the advances in genomics come from the US because it is the number one destination for foreign scientists, but China is also catching up. An example of a country that has no position as an industry of the future, anyway, is Russia: soviet leaders focused on what they valued as important, such as space, during Cold War, leaving fields like genetics aside. 5) Can technological innovation make health care more democratic? Most of the innovations are only benefiting wealthier societies but there are pioneers that are working for health equity. The majority of Earth’s population has mobile phones, by connecting them to machines, we could track blood pressure, electrocardiograph, and we could use them to transmit data to labs on the other side of the world. In Africa there’s a problem of poor healthcare, the Doctor to person ratio is really low and patients have to walk many miles to see a doctor and vice versa. Medic Mobile (app), Shimba Technologies (Kenyan company) and EyeNetra (app) are methods used to help people who do not have an easy access to health care. A highly connected world is giving rise to new possibilities for medical specialization and globalizing the supply chain for medical diagnoses. Some doctors believe that the identification of diseases could be made faster and cheaper by training an entire set of people to become the world’s expert on a single part of the body for one specific disease. But the downsides of this approach aren’t only economical (expensive), it’s also difficult to identify and train an unconventional workforce, but even patients would have to be comfortable to be diagnosed by non-doctors (but simple experts). The adoption of new technology finally occurs when ease of use, economic savings, and trust all come together to work toward changes. CHAPTER 3: The code-ification of money, markets, and trust 1) Discuss how we are moving away from physical money For most of the time money has been a physical entity (Peso and pound derive from words for weight – names reflect tangible things). The modern financial system has allowed us to move away from physical cash: ATMs, PayPal, mobile banking, etc. Our phones are now the bank, and the wealthiest people instead of stacks of cash have a virtual wallet. Our genomes will be decoded over the next 20 years, and in the meanwhile, our money will be coded. The code-ification of money, markets, payments, and trust is the next big inflection point in the history of financial services. 2) Describe what the company Square is doing (payments through phones, tablets, Pcs – trying to eliminate the cost and complication of standard credit card transactions) Jack Dorsey is the cofounder and CEO of Twitter and Square. Square is a company, which aims to revolutionize the way we use money. Jack wanted to invent a way to make everyday payments easier using our mobile phones. Now all you have to do is hold out your phone for a cashier to scan, and the payment is done. Square is designed precisely to make commerce more fluid, allowing consumers to complete transactions without being tied to a wallet and freeing merchants from being tied to a traditional cash register and credit card machine. It also wants to eliminate the cost and complication of standard card transaction fees, allowing local sellers and entities to grow.

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PayPal and eBay have the potential to create new opportunities in countries and regions that are poorly served by weak financial systems. The author talks about his experience with poorly connected world regions: EX. West Bank (Cisgiordania) and Palestine. Here economic growth could help counter (contrastare) radicalization; however, their economy is failing, despite tremendous potential, because of the lack of payment system and of access to 3G. In these parts of the world, PayPal is banned because of his potential for illicit or terrorist financing. The author was sent by Hillary Clinton to Goma (Congo) where the advent of mobile payments has allowed the mobile phone to become a payment system that provides vast new opportunities. Refugees live in horrible conditions, but they own a cell phone, and they use it to keep in touch with other displaced members of their families, to store what little money they have and to send and receive money. Just ten years ago, mobile phones were a rarity in Africa, but companies have rapidly tapped into this underdeveloped market. Mo Ibrahim is a Sudanese entrepreneur who brought mobiles to the continent thanks to his company, Celtel. Kenya’s M-Pesa program (bank accounts are rare, it allows to send and receive payments through cell phone) also works with Western Union to facilitate international transactions (remittances) this system offers a safer, easier and cheaper option. 3) The sharing economy and the issue of trust (eBay – Airbnb – Uber) The code-ification of money, payments, and markets has to figure out how to code trust, in order to be effective. Ebay, a peer-to-peer network makes money by taking a commission fee on each transaction which will occur only if buyer and seller are confident of a good outcome. The development of this trust is a product of algorithms: it logs reputations in a two-way rating system of buyer and seller that is monitored by the platform owners. The next step forward in the code-ification of trust is in the sharing-economy. It uses a combination of technology platforms packaged as apps on mobile phones, behavioural science, and mobile phone location data to create peer-to-peer marketplaces. These marketplaces take underused assets and connect them with people looking for a specific service. One of the bestknown examples is Airbnb (connects underused lodging space with people struggling to find affordable accommodations. There is an underlying economic theory of neoliberalism: encouraging the free flow of goods and services without government regulation. Uber, a company that provides travel and logistics, seems to realize that sharing economy has nothing to do with sharing. The impact of Uber will likely spread across transport and logistics globally. 4) Coded market – dispersing and concentrating the market Coded markets simultaneously concentrate and disperse the market. With coded markets available to even the smallest vendors, economic transaction are pushed away from physical stores or hotels toward individual people  dispersed. The route, through which the money is dispersed, however, redirects each of those transactions through a small number of technology platforms (for example in California or in China)  concentrated. EX. Charlie Songhurst decided to travel the world living as part of the shared economy, relying on Uber and Airbnb. Sharing platforms are expanding, and value is flowing to the places in the world that can produce tech platforms, so the global regional inequality is going to be unlike anything we have seen before. However, the drain is mitigated by a few factors: first the fact that the large platforms will be going public; most of these sharing economy platforms are strengthening the working and middle classes (since the latent good, that isn’t otherwise going to be used  extra income). The founders of these platforms are mostly millennials: for them the application of lodging, labour, and travel is native. Others: sharing homecooked meals, pets tutoring, etc… 5)Bitcoin, blockchain and the coded currency (digital and cryptocurrency) Bitcoin is a transnational “digital currency” released in the midst of the 2008 crisis. It has become the world’s first cryptocurrency – currency that uses cryptographic methods in an attempt to make it secure. The origin of Bitcoin comes from ideological communities deeply sceptical of government, traditional financial system. An anonymous author of a research paper (then identifies as “Satoshi Nakamoto”) called for the creation of the world’s first decentralized currency. Bitcoin prevents people from committing fraud with the invention called “the blockchain”: it is the big ledger on which all transactions are logged, and it is public and distributed to every Bitcoin user. By making everything public, it reduces the possibility of fraud, because you can’t counterfeit the existence of property in public view. It lets everyone know who has what, and it is designed to update at regular intervals, pooling (accumulando) every private-key-transaction and lumping (ammassando) them into a big block that can be added to the ledger (libro maestro). Bitcoin is also fee-free, making it easier to use in international transactions.

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6) What will be the future digital currency landscape? Some leading economists find it a technological solution to high-cost transactions, while others see it as a symptom of monetary regress and a contradiction of all modern economic principles and authors. The economist Roubini attacks the notion of bitcoin as a currency itself, because of its lack of stability. Bitcoin is a far more traceable flow of money than cash. Thus, at government level, intelligence agencies are going to be pro-Bitcoin and libertarians are going to wind up as anti-Bitcoin. Although having many rivals, such as Litecoin or Ripple, Bitcoin’s crypto-currency still remains above competition. These are trying to complement bitcoin rather than overtaking it, by allowing people to diversify their investments. Many rivals are trying to correct the limits found in it, including its limited supply and its irreversibility (it does not allow errors to be corrected), and even its environmental footprint. Bitcoin miners spend nearly $15 million a day, leading to a carbon footprint comparable to Cyprus’s: 8,25 megatons. It seemed the most probable to the author that most of the crypto-currencies of the time would disappear, and that one of them would embrace the responsibilit...